SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Hephaestus]

?? it is nothing short of disgraceful!

I'm sorry that you feel it's nothing short of disgraceful.

 

[Sarni]

The amount of lunatics claiming it’s all conspiracy on Facebook etc. is rising much faster than cases count. Funny that they all think they are much smarter than the rest of world who believes what they read in news, as they get truth from random online websites run by lunatics. This always made me smile about conspiracy freaks.

 

[Heardy]

I'm sorry that you feel it's nothing short of disgraceful.

what am I missing? Front line staff not having the necessary safety equipment is an absolute tragedy.

Why would anyone argue otherwise?

 

[Wibble]

Don’t think that’s true at all. Almost certain I read that neither of those viruses generated an antibody response that lasted more than 2 or 3 months.

EDIT: quick google reveals I’m probably wrong

Not the primary literature exacly but seems to be reasonably sources.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...hs-on-what-scientists-now-know-about-covid-19

Doctors examining patients recovering from a Covid-19 infection are finding fairly high levels of neutralising antibodies in their blood. These antibodies are made by the immune system, and they coat an invading virus at specific points, blocking its ability to break into cells.

“It is clear that immune responses are being mounted against Covid-19 in infected people,” says virologist Mike Skinner of Imperial College London. “And the antibodies created by that response will provide protection against future infections – but we should note that it is unlikely this protection will be for life.”

Instead, most virologists believe that immunity against Covid-19 will last only a year or two. “That is in line with other coronaviruses that infect humans,” says Skinner. “That means that even if most people do eventually become exposed to the virus, it is still likely to become endemic – which means we would see seasonal peaks of infection of this disease. We will have reached a steady state with regard to Covid-19.”

 

[Wibble]

The amount of lunatics claiming it’s all conspiracy on Facebook etc. is rising much faster than cases count. Funny that they all think they are much smarter than the rest of world who believes what they read in news, as they get truth from random online websites run by lunatics. This always made me smile about conspiracy freaks.

We should use this as a criteria for selecting people for fast track virus trials. Specifically for the control group who are given a placebo before being infected.

 

[Revan]

Not the primary literature exacly but seems to be reasonably sources.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...hs-on-what-scientists-now-know-about-covid-19

It becoming endemic (by far the most likely scenario) is terrifying, especially if there won't be progress for anti-virals and vaccines.

 

[Hound Dog]

But is true. There are several corona virus (if not all?) that we don't have immunity and we keep getting it over and over during all our lives. I don't know why this should be different. Herd immunity and vaccine might never happen and we will need to live with the risk of dying or our loved ones dying in a daily basis

We are approaching a point where this thread needs to be shut down or something.

I spend 3-4 hours per day reading on this and this is the only place online where there are day-to-day (or hour-to-hour) claims that this is the end of everything.

 

[4bars]

I thought that we get immunity for human coronaviruses, at least for a few months. And for the novel ones, for MERS the antibodies ceased to exist after a year, while for SARS, it was around 3 years. So why should this have zero immunity?

Few months might, I read I think that RNA type (I am talking what I read, but truly don't know anything if we go in depth in the topic) virus like this corona virus can mutate easily each 6-12 months.

At the same time, I believe that SARS-1 and MERS was difficult that they would mutate due to the small amount of people infected but this SARS-2, every time that replicates is a new option to mutate and as it had infected millions, probably on the tens of millions, had many chances and will have many chances to mutate and then you can get it again.

I think nobody know much anything about it, but what if we catch it as easy as we catch the common cold without immunity for it?

All and all, as I said It MIGHT not be any herd immunity or vaccination at all and many corona virus that had been in our lives for decades, had show us this possibility very easily

 

[massi83]

3000 people on the boat. 2000 passengers. Median age of passengers was 69. 1000 crew. Median age of crew was 36. Someone else can do the maths but that would have to overall median between 45 and 55. Which is not massively out of whack with most European countries. Maybe 10 years older?

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html You can find the age breakdown from here for instance. Median age around 63-64. 70-79 1.015 passengers. 80-89 216 passangers.

 

[Hound Dog]

I think nobody know much anything about it, but what if we catch it as easy as we catch the common cold without immunity for it?

And what if it mutates and comes back like the Spanish flu, with a second wave that mainly kills people in their prime? What if there is a third wave with a 100% death rate like that Korean movie, The Flu?

 

[Revan]

Few months might, I read I think that RNA type (I am talking what I read, but truly don't know anything if we go in depth in the topic) virus like this corona virus can mutate easily each 6-12 months.

At the same time, I believe that SARS-1 and MERS was difficult that they would mutate due to the small amount of people infected but this SARS-2, every time that replicates is a new option to mutate and as it had infected millions, probably on the tens of millions, had many chances and will have many chances to mutate and then you can get it again.

I think nobody know much anything about it, but what if we catch it as easy as we catch the common cold without immunity for it?

All and all, as I said It MIGHT not be any herd immunity or vaccination at all and many corona virus that had been in our lives for decades, had show us this possibility very easily

Every virus mutates, all the time. To mutate on something that is effective against anti-bodies and anti-virals is another matter though. HIV is probably the most rapidly evolving virus, and still some anti-virals do an excellent job against it. At contrary, I think that SARS was mentioned to be a virus that does not evolve that much in comparison (and this one is very close to SARS).

I have yet to see someone who knows much about it to give the possibility that we won't have vaccines, anti-virals and any immunity against it. I think that the most likely scenario is that the infections will give us some immunity (from 6 months to a few years), and during this year we will have effective anti-virals, while next year an effective vaccine.

 

[Revan]

And what if it mutates and comes back like the Spanish flu, with a second wave that mainly kills people in their prime? What if there is a third wave with a 100% death rate like that Korean movie, The Flu?

What if it telepathically infects people? Every time it infects someone, it also infects all the people the infected person knows.

 

[Hound Dog]

I have yet to see someone who knows much about it to give the possibility that we won't have vaccines, anti-virals and any immunity against it. I think that the most likely scenario is that the infections will give us some immunity (from 6 months to a few years), and during this year we will have effective anti-virals, while next year an effective vaccine.

Haven't you been reading the Caf over the last few days, Revan?

The majority is in agreement that there is minimal chance of vaccine. Or, if there is, it will be available only once everyone is already dead.

 

[One Night Only]

WHO pissing over everyone's chips.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/who...no-evidence-antibody-tests-show-immunity.html

Nah, they're just playing it safe cos they got it wrong earlier, if they're right "we got it right we are the best, take that trump" if they're wrong "oh well, better safe than sorry".. it's a statement they've given out which they can't lose face with.

 

[Dr. StrangeHate]

But is true. There are several corona virus (if not all?) that we don't have immunity and we keep getting it over and over during all our lives. I don't know why this should be different. Herd immunity and vaccine might never happen and we will need to live with the risk of dying or our loved ones dying in a daily basis

I hope we don't see the worst outcome as you describe as that would mean a fundamental changing of the world. On the top of my head:
1) 2 m rule
2) Rare family gathering with elders
3) Soulless sporting events
4) Travel only for necessity
5) I don't know what dating will look like
6) WFH for jobs that can be done from home (this should be default anyway)
7) Nursing homes would only be served by astronauts
8) Old people will get extremely lonely
9) People with masks always on + mask bling
10) No socialising
11) Countries and people dependent on tourism annihilated economically
12) Increased mental health issues

I am sure I am missing very big ones.

 

[Revan]

And what if it mutates and comes back like the Spanish flu, with a second wave that mainly kills people in their prime? What if there is a third wave with a 100% death rate like that Korean movie, The Flu?

Or, the Stand? Randall Flagg has been in the Caf for many years, we are all doomed.

 

[Balljy]

virus like this corona virus can mutate easily each 6-12 months.

Viruses mutate almost every time they transfer to another host. It is the type of mutation that is important and it seems to be very slow in Covid-19 so far. The mutations can be tracked here, but so far it is good news.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

 

[Revan]

I hope we don't see the worst outcome as you describe as that would mean a fundamental changing of the world. On the top of my head:
1) 2 m rule
2) Rare family gathering with elders
3) Soulless sporting events
4) Travel only for necessity
5) I don't know what dating will look like
6) WFH for jobs that can be done from home (this should be default anyway)
7) Nursing homes would only be served by astronauts
8) Old people will get extremely lonely
9) People with masks always on + mask bling
10) No socialising
11) Countries and people dependent on tourism annihilated economically
12) Increased mental health issues

I am sure I am missing very big ones.

Why? I find it extremely boring and unmotivating?

 

[4bars]

And what if it mutates and comes back like the Spanish flu, with a second wave that mainly kills people in their prime? What if there is a third wave with a 100% death rate like that Korean movie, The Flu?

Every virus mutates, all the time. To mutate on something that is effective against anti-bodies and anti-virals is another matter though. HIV is probably the most rapidly evolving virus, and still some anti-virals do an excellent job against it. At contrary, I think that SARS was mentioned to be a virus that does not evolve that much in comparison (and this one is very close to SARS).

I have yet to see someone who knows much about it to give the possibility that we won't have vaccines, anti-virals and any immunity against it. I think that the most likely scenario is that the infections will give us some immunity (from 6 months to a few years), and during this year we will have effective anti-virals, while next year an effective vaccine.

You are right on the bold part. That is why WHO says it might not work. Not that would not work. Everything can happen, but corona virus history, doesn't show positive signs

 

[jymufc20]

I hope we don't see the worst outcome as you describe as that would mean a fundamental changing of the world. On the top of my head:
1) 2 m rule
2) Rare family gathering with elders
3) Soulless sporting events
4) Travel only for necessity
5) I don't know what dating will look like
6) WFH for jobs that can be done from home (this should be default anyway)
7) Nursing homes would only be served by astronauts
8) Old people will get extremely lonely
9) People with masks always on + mask bling
10) No socialising
11) Countries and people dependent on tourism annihilated economically
12) Increased mental health issues

I am sure I am missing very big ones.

6) why isn't this done by default ? Baffles me, if you can work from home why the feck are you going to work ?

I've had this argument with a few managers of mine over the last few weeks as the majority of them could work from home yet they come in just to get out of the house, therefore increasing the risk of infection on our workforce, wankers.

 

[4bars]

I hope we don't see the worst outcome as you describe as that would mean a fundamental changing of the world. On the top of my head:
1) 2 m rule
2) Rare family gathering with elders
3) Soulless sporting events
4) Travel only for necessity
5) I don't know what dating will look like
6) WFH for jobs that can be done from home (this should be default anyway)
7) Nursing homes would only be served by astronauts
8) Old people will get extremely lonely
9) People with masks always on + mask bling
10) No socialising
11) Countries and people dependent on tourism annihilated economically
12) Increased mental health issues

I am sure I am missing very big ones.

Basically. At a petty scale, when you meet a girl in tinder you might need to swap her nose and she yours. I said the nose

 

[4bars]

Viruses mutate almost every time they transfer to another host. It is the type of mutation that is important and it seems to be very slow in Covid-19 so far. The mutations can be tracked here, but so far it is good news.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

Yes, of course, but the more transmissions the more mutation options exists and SARS-1 and MERS had a short way to go

 

[Hephaestus]

what am I missing? Front line staff not having the necessary safety equipment is an absolute tragedy.

Why would anyone argue otherwise?

You're spot on, I was just making a reference to the Priti Patel "I'm sorry if people feel there have been failings"

 

[Balljy]

Yes, of course, but the more transmissions the more mutation options exists and SARS-1 and MERS had a short way to go

The website which sources from medical data is showing that it has mutated multiple times, but so far in ways that are not going to hugely hinder vaccinations. This is up to now, so it might change, but considering how far it has spread the mutations are minimal luckily.

 

[Revan]

You are right on the bold part. That is why WHO says it might not work. Not that would not work. Everything can happen, but corona virus history, doesn't show positive signs

But it does. We know that for the closest virus to it (SARS), the antibodies were present for around 3 years. We also know that there were vaccines for SARS, but they didn't reach the trial stage cause there were no incentives to do so. We saw the first vaccines being created within almost 2 months ago. We are already seeing good signs for at least one anti-viral (remdesivir) and good anecdotal evidence that hydroxychloroquine might work. There are also signs that the mortality rate might be well below what originally was thought (just check the numbers of the countries which have done massive testings like Iceland). There are also signs that many more people than we thought might be infected, which further lowers the mortality rate. And we have already seen countries who without a shelter at home have managed to contain the outbreak.

Sure, we can speculate that it will evolve to both something more deadly and more contagious (Spanish flu), that not only an infection won't give any immunity but it might make things worse for the second infection (dengue fever), that no vaccine will be created (HIV), that no anti-viral will be effective (Ebola). But chances for either of these happening are quite low, very low in fact, and chances for all of them happening are negligible.

 

[T00lsh3d]

Belarus are blatantly worse, but nobody has any expectations or standards for Belarus. Hence my 'pound for pound' comment. Belarus seems a pretty cool country, one which I'd like to visit one day, but it also seems very backward in many ways and I think most of Europe recognises that so has no expectations of them to act like anything else.

I’d posted it mostly just to share that last paragraph with the Caf because it’s so glorious

 

[Wibble]

It becoming endemic (by far the most likely scenario) is terrifying, especially if there won't be progress for anti-virals and vaccines.

Hard to see how it isn't going to become endemic.

 

[Revan]

Hard to see how it isn't going to become endemic.

Yup. The hope is that it will either become manageable like the flu (which can happen if we find out efficient anti-virals) or a vaccine with high success rate is discovered.

 

[Wibble]

But it does. We know that for the closest virus to it (SARS), the antibodies were present for around 3 years. We also know that there were vaccines for SARS, but they didn't reach the trial stage cause there were no incentives to do so. We saw the first vaccines being created within almost 2 months ago. We are already seeing good signs for at least one anti-viral (remdesivir) and good anecdotal evidence that hydroxychloroquine might work. There are also signs that the mortality rate might be well below what originally was thought (just check the numbers of the countries which have done massive testings like Iceland). There are also signs that many more people than we thought might be infected, which further lowers the mortality rate. And we have already seen countries who without a shelter at home have managed to contain the outbreak.

Sure, we can speculate that it will evolve to both something more deadly and more contagious (Spanish flu), that not only an infection won't give any immunity but it might make things worse for the second infection (dengue fever), that no vaccine will be created (HIV), that no anti-viral will be effective (Ebola). But chances for either of these happening are quite low, very low in fact, and chances for all of them happening are negligible.

We know already that antibodies are created in significant numbers in recovered patients (logical given that people are actually recovering) and signs that a workable vaccine will be developed are good to date even if it does take quite a while to test and get one or more to market. Most viruses with this sort of infectiousness and fatality rate to the host don't evolve rapidly so a vaccine should give us a couple of years which is plenty to keep the vaccine up to date with the viruses evolution. We should also immunise everyone at the same time for flu as people are really slack at getting that shot. An antiviral would also be a huge boost as it will reduce pressure on medical services while a vaccine is developed. Fingers crossed for Remdesvir trials.

As for Spanish flu, it is debatable that it was more deadly or contagious but rather it was the terrible conditions that prevailed at the time with lots of young people in close proximity with poor hygiene and malnutrition etc due to the war. Compounded by aspirin poisoning. Dengue Fever is an outlier but it is doubtful that this will occur with this virus.

The trick is going to be getting to the point where we can vaccinate and/or treat adequately without overwhelming medical services or going bust first.

 

[Sarni]

We should use this as a criteria for selecting people for fast track virus trials. Specifically for the control group who are given a placebo before being infected.

I’ve always said that the best thing that could happen to the world would be a virus that eliminates all lunatics of that kind. Basically something that kills 100% infected but vaccine is made very fast, but they refuse to get vaccined because conspiracy. World needs that.

 

[Hound Dog]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-volunteers-vaccine-trial-april-a9470896.html

One can dream...

"The Oxford team join three other groups of researchers – two in the United States and one in China – in beginning trials on humans."

Some from this forum should contact those scientists and let them know that they are wasting their time; as there is no chance in hell of them succeeding in less than 10 years.

 

[Revan]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-volunteers-vaccine-trial-april-a9470896.html

One can dream...

"The Oxford team join three other groups of researchers – two in the United States and one in China – in beginning trials on humans."

Some from this forum should contact those scientists and let them know that they are wasting their time; as there is no chance in hell of them succeeding in less than 10 years.

Only brave and altruistic people will get the vaccine at this stage.

 

[Foxbatt]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-volunteers-vaccine-trial-april-a9470896.html

One can dream...

"The Oxford team join three other groups of researchers – two in the United States and one in China – in beginning trials on humans."

Some from this forum should contact those scientists and let them know that they are wasting their time; as there is no chance in hell of them succeeding in less than 10 years.

This has been in the news for sometime now. The Chinese are already in the second stage and seems to be the most advanced at this time. They should know how effective it is by mid May the latest.

 

[Drifter]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Shakesy]

Or, the Stand? Randall Flagg has been in the Caf for many years, we are all doomed.

Has anyone been dreaming about an old woman sitting on a porch in Nebraska? Anyone? She plays a guitar.

 

[Hound Dog]

Only brave and altruistic people will get the vaccine at this stage.

I am aware of that. I am also aware that no one has any idea if it will work. Or work while causing side-effects, which is even worse.

Still, there is definitely progress being made and no one can say with certainty that it will take ages for a vaccine to be approved, which is what I have been hearing a lot in this thread. All I want is for people to admit that they have no idea about this.

 

[Revan]

I am aware of that. I am also aware that no one has any idea if it will work. Or work while causing side-effects, which is even worse.

Still, there is definitely progress being made and no one can say with certainty that it will take ages for a vaccine to be approved, which is what I have been hearing a lot in this thread. All I want is for people to admit that they have no idea about this.

We have an idea though. The forecast since the beginning has been 12-18 months and nothing has changed to believe that it is gonna take less time than that (and it can take longer if all the vaccines in trials don't show effects, or as you said, have bad side effects).

I think that Moderna administered the first dose of their vaccine in a human more than a month ago, and there are another few vaccines already in trials. Just that for the vaccine to be administered in mass, it needs to pass quite a few checks, so reasonably speaking, it is quite unlikely that it will be ready until next summer. And even then, there will be a hierarchy if who gets the vaccine first (likely it is gonna be the elderly in developed countries, followed by other people in developed countries, followed by the remaining), but even in a best-case scenario it is hard to see more than 7 billion people getting vaccinated by the end of 2020.

 

[Hound Dog]

We have an idea though. The forecast since the beginning has been 12-18 months and nothing has changed to believe that it is gonna take less time than that (and it can take longer if all the vaccines in trials don't show effects, or as you said, have bad side effects).

I think that Moderna administered the first dose of their vaccine in a human more than a month ago, and there are another few vaccines already in trials. Just that for the vaccine to be administered in mass, it needs to pass quite a few checks, so reasonably speaking, it is quite unlikely that it will be ready until next summer. And even then, there will be a hierarchy if who gets the vaccine first (likely it is gonna be the elderly in developed countries, followed by other people in developed countries, followed by the remaining), but even in a best-case scenario it is hard to see more than 7 billion people getting vaccinated by the end of 2020.

I did not mean "we" as "humanity", I am talking about the Redcafe posters who are constantly giving their own estimations (ie, the forecast is bogus it will certainly take more time than that) that differ from the experts' forecasts.

 

[Wibble]

We have an idea though. The forecast since the beginning has been 12-18 months and nothing has changed to believe that it is gonna take less time than that (and it can take longer if all the vaccines in trials don't show effects, or as you said, have bad side effects).

I think that Moderna administered the first dose of their vaccine in a human more than a month ago, and there are another few vaccines already in trials. Just that for the vaccine to be administered in mass, it needs to pass quite a few checks, so reasonably speaking, it is quite unlikely that it will be ready until next summer. And even then, there will be a hierarchy if who gets the vaccine first (likely it is gonna be the elderly in developed countries, followed by other people in developed countries, followed by the remaining), but even in a best-case scenario it is hard to see more than 7 billion people getting vaccinated by the end of 2020.

And as many have said before a vaccine typically takes 5-10 years to get to market. 12-18 months would be unprecedented (drink). The only way to speed things up (assuming all goes well at each stage) is to miss out some of the normal testing and go almost straight to trials on health volunteers. Which is hugely risky and illegal in most places.

 

[Wibble]

I did not mean "we" as "humanity", I am talking about the Redcafe posters who are constantly giving their own estimations (ie, the forecast is bogus it will certainly take more time than that) that differ from the experts' forecasts.

The people who seem to be commenting e.g. Pogue, Revan and others, know what they are talking about. They aren't plucking this stuff out of thin air.