SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Revan]

And as many have said before a vaccine typically takes 5-10 years to get to market. 12-18 months would be unprecedented (drink). The only way to speed things up (assuming all goes well at each stage) is to miss out some of the normal testing and go almost straight to trials on health volunteers. Which is hugely risky and illegal in most places.

To be fair, it is a much bigger incentive than usual (easily the biggest incentive since smallpox). And the technology has advanced much more than before, several vaccines (which are completely different from each other) were built within 6 weeks or so of the genome sequence being sent from the Chinese researchers.

I think it is quite understandable to go faster than usual. For example, it made sense to do parallel trials in both humans and animals. Of course, I believe that the researchers who are doing this are extremely cautious.

 

[Revan]

The people who seem to be commenting e.g. Pogue, Revan and others, know what they are talking about. They aren't plucking this stuff out of thin air.

You give me too much credit.

I have been read a lot about covid-19 and infections diseases since this started, but it is totally out of my topic, so often in this thread, I have (by mistake) posted total crap.

 

[Hound Dog]

The people who seem to be commenting e.g. Pogue, Revan and others, know what they are talking about. They aren't plucking this stuff out of thin air.

There seems to be pretty much a consensus among the scientific community on when and what we can expect. At least roughly. What Revan is posting is in line with this.

I find it difficult to take anyone going against those estimates seriously, as long as they are not a part of a team working on a vaccine or something. And yet, we have had several of those here over the last few days.

 

[Wibble]

There seems to be pretty much a consensus among the scientific community on when and what we can expect. At least roughly. What Revan is posting is in line with this.

I find it difficult to take anyone going against those estimates seriously, as long as they are not a part of a team working on a vaccine or something. And yet, we have had several of those here over the last few days.

I must have missed those. Are people saying faster or slower? Or?

The problem is that the short estimates either rely on us doing something very risky like not testing properly (the estimates below a year) or everything going perfectly (12-18 month estimates) which often isn't the case with any vaccine or drug test. There is also a possibility that we won't be able to develop a vaccine. I'm hoping this is unlikely but it is possible.

 

[Garethw]

Has anyone been dreaming about an old woman sitting on a porch in Nebraska? Anyone? She plays a guitar.

No but this bastard called Randall won’t leave me alone.

 

[Revan]

I must have missed those. Are people saying faster or slower? Or?

The problem is that the short estimates either rely on us doing something very risky like not testing properly (the estimates below a year) or everything going perfectly (12-18 month estimates) which often isn't the case with any vaccine or drug test. There is also a possibility that we won't be able to develop a vaccine. I'm hoping this is unlikely but it is possible.

There have been people who have said that probably we won't ever have a vaccine, cause there are no vaccines for the other coronaviruses. Which IMO is a weak argument, cause the need for this vaccine is much higher than for the others, and when humans have an incentive, they find a way. Obviously, not much money is put on a vaccine for common cold coronaviruses (cause there are four different coronaviruses who cause the common cold, and all together cause only around 25-30% of common cold diseases). Then there was not much incentive for SARS, cause SARS was gone (and how do you even do clinical trials for SARS).

Here, there is a lot of incentive (and for the private sector, a lot of money to be made).

However, there is an unlikely, but real possibility that a vaccine won't be found at least short term. That would really suck, and it means that tens of millions (lower bound) will unfortunately perish from the disease.

 

[Hound Dog]

I must have missed those. Are people saying faster or slower? Or?

The problem is that the short estimates either rely on us doing something very risky like not testing properly (the estimates below a year) or everything going perfectly (12-18 month estimates) which often isn't the case with any vaccine or drug test. There is also a possibility that we won't be able to develop a vaccine. I'm hoping this is unlikely but it is possible.

The estimates are what Revan has posted and what you wrote; 12-18. I have read dozens of articles and statements regarding this and everyone who sound like they know what they are talking about (apart from Pogue mostly) agree that this is the time that will take.

What you are not taking into account is that 12-18 is an estimate for everything going perfectly in one trial, but we have around 40 of those going on in parallel.This is normally not the case. All that we need is for one of the teams to succeed and that will be the end of it and this is why the 12-18 is the mainstream prediction. Just too many teams working on it for all of them to not be successful.

But no, instead of accepting this already depressing time frame, this thread has devolved into a sequence of unfounded what ifs. What if this is like Dengue fever, what if it is contagious like the smallpox, etc.

 

[Revan]

No but this bastard called Randall won’t leave me alone.

Poor mod who banned him. Will get forever taunted with bad dreams.

 

[Garethw]

If a working vaccine was ready tomorrow, how long before it could be mass produced for the whole world? 7 billion vaccines would surely take years to produce?

The old, weak, compromised and rich would be first in line. So what for the rest of us? Vaccinations in 2022? 2023?

 

[Revan]

The estimates are what Revan has posted and what you wrote; 12-18. I have read dozens of articles and statements regarding this and everyone who sound like they know what they are talking about (apart from Pogue mostly) agree that this is the time that will take.

What you are not taking into account is that 12-18 is an estimate for everything going perfectly in one trial, but we have around 40 of those going on in parallel.This is normally not the case. All that we need is for one of the teams to succeed and that will be the end of it and this is why the 12-18 is the mainstream prediction. Just too many teams working on it for all of them to not be successful.

But no, instead of accepting this already depressing time frame, this thread has devolved into a sequence of unfounded what ifs. What if this is like Dengue fever, what if it is contagious like the smallpox, etc.

It probably is. The higher end estimations for both are around R = 6 (though covid-19 has a much lower end R estimation).

What I don't understand is how both this and SARS have the same estimated R, but this has managed to infect a thousand time more people.

 

[Hound Dog]

However, there is an unlikely, but real possibility that a vaccine won't be found at least short term. That would really suck, and it means that tens of millions (lower bound) will unfortunately perish from the disease.

Recent data coming from Italy and Germany from asymptomatic people tested suggest that the virus is far more widespread than originally thought. The actual current death rate might actually be below 0.5% (and this is with several health systems already being overwhelmed) so it is hard to see this getting into the hundreds of millions.

 

[Hound Dog]

It probably is. The higher end estimations for both are around R = 6 (though covid-19 has a much lower end R estimation).

What I don't understand is how both this and SARS have the same estimated R, but this has managed to infect a thousand time more people.

I meant the chickenpox, sorry.

 

[Revan]

If a working vaccine was ready tomorrow, how long before it could be mass produced for the whole world? 7 billion vaccines would surely take years to produce?

The old, weak, compromised and rich would be first in line. So what for the rest of us? Vaccinations in 2022? 2023?

Not sure. You don't need egg embryos and other staff like for old vaccines. It should be much faster than normally, considering that the technology (at least that of Moderna) is different.

I guess that billions are going to be vaccinated within the next year providing that the clinical trials end on the first half of next year.

 

[Revan]

Recent data coming from Italy and Germany from asymptomatic people tested suggest that the virus is far more widespread than originally thought. The actual current death rate might actually be below 0.5% (and this is with several health systems already being overwhelmed) so it is hard to see this getting into the hundreds of millions.

Sure, but if the entire world gets infected (several times) which will happen in case no vaccine is found in the next 10 years, then you get those really high numbers even with 0.5% death rate (which I believe is close to the true death rate, and might even be an overestimate).

Of course, the fact that there are several dozens of trials going on, makes me believe that by the end of the year we will have confidence that several vaccines look very promising and safe.

 

[Hound Dog]

Sure, but if the entire world gets infected (several times) which will happen in case no vaccine is found in the next 10 years, then you get those really high numbers even with 0.5% death rate (which I believe is close to the true death rate, and might even be an overestimate).

Do we have any reason to believe that herd immunity is not a thing? I thought that the medical community was mostly in agreement that, once around 70%-80% gets infected, it is over?

 

[Wibble]

To be fair, it is a much bigger incentive than usual (easily the biggest incentive since smallpox). And the technology has advanced much more than before, several vaccines (which are completely different from each other) were built within 6 weeks or so of the genome sequence being sent from the Chinese researchers.

I think it is quite understandable to go faster than usual. For example, it made sense to do parallel trials in both humans and animals. Of course, I believe that the researchers who are doing this are extremely cautious.

Accelerated testing could happen and then you just have to cross your fingers nothing disastrous will result.

 

[Wibble]

Do we have any reason to believe that herd immunity is not a thing? I thought that the medical community was mostly in agreement that, once around 70%-80% gets infected, it is over?

Herd immunity is a thing but if the higher estimates of R0 are correct then we need a HIT of 85% and getting to this without a vaccine will result in millions of deaths - 11-70 million depending on the actual R0 and death rate. And then immunity to viruses often only lasts 1/2/3 years.

So we really need a vaccine.

 

[Revan]

Do we have any reason to believe that herd immunity is not a thing? I thought that the medical community was mostly in agreement that, once around 70%-80% gets infected, it is over?

Very likely there won't be a lifetime immunity. MERS gave immunity for around a year, SARS for around 3, human cold coronaviruses for a few months to a few years. So, I don't think it is game over once we reach that stage, more likely the spreading gets limited from a high R0 to a R0 lower than 1, but there will still be some spreading. I guess a lot depends on how much immunity we gain. With a bit of luck it could be several years.

 

[Revan]

Accelerated testing could happen and then you just have to cross your fingers nothing disastrous will result.

I think so. From what I have understood, it is not that they are removing the clinical trials, just that they will do them faster. So typically, they would experiment a couple of years or so with animals, while now they are doing it in parallel with a small group of people already getting the vaccine.

 

[Wibble]

There have been people who have said that probably we won't ever have a vaccine, cause there are no vaccines for the other coronaviruses. Which IMO is a weak argument, cause the need for this vaccine is much higher than for the others, and when humans have an incentive, they find a way. Obviously, not much money is put on a vaccine for common cold coronaviruses (cause there are four different coronaviruses who cause the common cold, and all together cause only around 25-30% of common cold diseases). Then there was not much incentive for SARS, cause SARS was gone (and how do you even do clinical trials for SARS).

Here, there is a lot of incentive (and for the private sector, a lot of money to be made).

However, there is an unlikely, but real possibility that a vaccine won't be found at least short term. That would really suck, and it means that tens of millions (lower bound) will unfortunately perish from the disease.

I agree but that said there would surely be lots of money if there was a vaccine for the various viruses that cause colds? Although since no one viruses accounts for more than 15% of colds on average it would be hard to eliminate them all. But if you could take out the top 2 or 3 the benefit to society would be huge.

 

[Revan]

I agree but that said there would surely be lots of money if there was a vaccine for the various viruses that cause colds? Although since no one viruses accounts for more than 15% of colds on average it would be hard to eliminate them all. But if you could take out the top 2 or 3 the benefit to society would be huge.

Most people don't even take the flu shot, with flu being a much bigger deal and the vaccine giving a good protection against 3-4 most common influenza viruses (which cause close to all human flu infections). And as I said, there are 4 coronaviruses that cause common cold (with all of them combined causing a small ratio of what is known as the common cold). So if we would have vaccines for all four of them, and then everybody in the world would get vaccinated yearly, we would reduce the common cold for 20% or so (accounting some people for whom vaccine has no effect). A lot of trouble for not much gain, when instead you can just sell paracetamol and vitamin C.

Additionally, not many people would get a shot that gives you 20% protection against common cold.

 

[Hound Dog]

Herd immunity is a thing but if the higher estimates of R0 are correct then we need a HIT of 85% and getting to this without a vaccine will result in millions of deaths - 11-70 million depending on the actual R0 and death rate. And then immunity to viruses often only lasts 1/2/3 years.

So we really need a vaccine.

I actually agree with all this, I was responding to the assessment that tens of millions is a lower-end estimate.

 

[Wibble]

Most people don't even take the flu shot, with flu being a much bigger deal and the vaccine giving a good protection against 3-4 most common influenza viruses (which cause close to all human flu infections). And as I said, there are 4 coronaviruses that cause common cold (with all of them combined causing a small ratio of what is known as the common cold). So if we would have vaccines for all four of them, and then everybody in the world would get vaccinated yearly, we would reduce the common cold for 20% or so (accounting some people for whom vaccine has no effect). A lot of trouble for not much gain, when instead you can just sell paracetamol and vitamin C.

Additionally, not many people would get a shot that gives you 20% protection against common cold.

People are idiots. I got pneumonia with flu ages ago, possibly the 2009 Swine flu. It wasn't good at all and I've had the flu vaccine every year so far. Since then nothing worse than a mild cold. I'd take a shot that reduced the chances of me getting a cold by 20% every day of the week. The benefits to productivity would be huge as well.

People still don't get their kids immunised against chickenpox FFS.

 

[Wibble]

I actually agree with all this, I was responding to the assessment that tens of millions is a lower-end estimate.

I wasn't agreeing/disagreeing, just conversing

 

[Shakesy]

No but this bastard called Randall won’t leave me alone.

You will have to serve the Walking Dude. Bring your own drinks and nukes, of course.

 

[4bars]

@Revan @Wibble thanks for your replies. I want disagree and you have a better informed opinion/argument. I see a lot of ifs ( like @Hound Dog says) and some of them terrifies me

 

[Revan]

People are idiots. I got pneumonia with flu ages ago, possibly the 2009 Swine flu. It wasn't good at all and I've had the flu vaccine every year so far. Since then nothing worse than a mild cold. I'd take a shot that reduced the chances of me getting a cold by 20% every day of the week. The benefits to productivity would be huge as well.

People still don't get their kids immunised against chickenpox FFS.

To be fair, I find myself quite reasonable and definitely pro-science, but I haven't ever got the flu shot. Probably more negligence and the wrong 'I have a strong immunity so who cares; mentality. I don't remember the last time when I lost more than one working/school day, so we are talking for more than 15 years. I think that many people would rationalize the same way.

Now, the common cold is far less dangerous than the flu. I likely caught it multiple times (assuming that feeling a bit sick is common cold-related) each year and still go to work and do the other activities (like gym, socializing etc). Most of the people are onthe same shoes. A 20% reduction towards common cold is hardly a big deal so I think the absolute majority will not get the vaccine. And if you find a vaccine for only one of the coronaviruses, you are talking for like 5-10% reduction.

I think that this episode has taught me to get the flu shot in the future. Not cause I care that much about the flu, but cause I might infect people with a weaker immune system.

To be fair, it is even worse than chickenpox. Measles is making a return in Europe and the US. I think that Italy lost recently the measles-free status. It is an extremely dangerous disease (not only for kids but also adults) that killed so many. And it is arguably the most contagious disease right there. With it being extremely contagious (an R of 12), it might become a real problem in the future. Bear in mind, it was a disease that didn't exist in the West for around 2 decades and was destined to have the smallpox fate, but some smart people decided otherwise.

 

[Beans]

No but this bastard called Randall won’t leave me alone.

Did you have a Ouiji board tell you to stay a virgin too? Needless to say I went out and fcuked the first guy I saw not wearing a track suit.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I must have missed those. Are people saying faster or slower? Or?

The problem is that the short estimates either rely on us doing something very risky like not testing properly (the estimates below a year) or everything going perfectly (12-18 month estimates) which often isn't the case with any vaccine or drug test. There is also a possibility that we won't be able to develop a vaccine. I'm hoping this is unlikely but it is possible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52329659

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Can I just say how wonderful the Caf has been for this whole thing. Having so many European posters updating like this is genuinely riveting reading. People like @Regulus Arcturus Black might get stick, but it's been fascinating to see how countries are handling this.

Cheers pal, I won't be posting much in here from now on though, having to try and justify a factual test and factual comments by the chief epidemiologist regarding that test for 2 pages a few days back was the straw that broke the camel's back. Far too many in this thread have watched Contagion, followed the outbreak closely and now believe they are experts in the field. And sadly, far too many don't even want to see or hear about a possible positive development which in itself is utterly mental. They certainly don't want to hear that this virus can be slowed even without lockdown.

For what it's worth though @Wumminator as I'm sure you'll be at least interested, I know the numbers this week after Easter were all over the shop due to the weekend and holiday delay, which has lead to some dogshit news reporting especially in the UK this week regarding Sweden; however there's been really positive news this week and a definite downward trend in deaths per day (see below) and also cases per day.

Peaked at 99, then 66, 62, 63, 67, 56, 56, 45, 38 (the last number likely to be added to due to late reporting). Oh, and like Belgium, Sweden is one of the countries that puts all possible nursing home deaths in the figures, mental to think Holland, UK, Spain and Italy not doing that.

ICU entries has been stable for close to 4 weeks now.

That'll be my last post on the subject for another week, I'll leave the doom merchants to it. Take care of yourself pal.

 

[Revaulx]

Cheers pal, I won't be posting much in here from now on though, having to try and justify a factual test and factual comments by the chief epidemiologist regarding that test for 2 pages a few days back was the straw that broke the camel's back. Far too many in this thread have watched Contagion, followed the outbreak closely and now believe they are experts in the field. And sadly, far too many don't even want to see or hear about a possible positive development which in itself is utterly mental.

For what it's worth though @Wumminator as I'm sure you'll be at least interested, I know the numbers this week after Easter were all over the shop due to the weekend and holiday delay, which has lead to some dogshit news reporting especially in the UK this week regarding Sweden; however there's been really positive news this week and a definite downward trend in deaths per day (see below) and also cases per day. ICU entries has been stable for close to 4 weeks now.

That'll be my last post on the subject for another week, I'll leave the doom merchants to it. Take care of yourself pal.

Well that’s a great shame, and if you stick to it I won’t be coming in here as frequently as I have been.

I know your rather truculent style winds some people up, but that’s a small price to pay for your really clear insights into what’s going on in Sweden.

A few days ago someone rather gloatingly posted that it will be interesting to see what the Swedish numbers look like once they have “inevitably“ abandoned their unique approach and joined everyone else in general lockdown. It appears obvious to me that the opposite is true, and it’s inevitable that most countries are going to have to adopt something akin to the Swedish model at some time fairly soon. I hope you will be around and available for comment at that time.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

I just don't agree that the NHS is particularly underfunded. It could be better, but we spend roughly the European average on healthcare. In terms of outcomes, there was no marked improvement when Blair doubled the expenditure in the 2000s, we continued to move on the same trajectory, just as everybody else did. Most of it went on ill advised projects and added complexity. The overall spending is not the problem. How it is spent is the problem, and this personification of the NHS is designed to shut down any talk of that.

Using the European median for spending is misleading when you consider the size of the UK economy is much larger than most other countries in Europe.

Comparing with G7 countries is more of a fair comparison.

Our healthcare spending is 2nd from bottom from the G7 countries and only just over half what Germany spend.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...espendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29

NB. That was in 2011. Since then we have seen massive reductions in the rate of investment in the NHS.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

To be honest, I'm just expressing frustration that what should be (and was) an informative thread has been littered with political squabbling for the last 500 pages.

Problem is that the UK government are treating daily updates and the removal of parliamentary debate as an opportunity to split out PR and spin on a daily basis. Glossing over the multitude of errors they are making with very little checks or balances. People are bound to get frustrated.

Promising 100,000 tests per day but only delivering 15,000 per day is political.

Not having the correct PPE for healthcare workers despite assuring parliament in January that we are fully prepared (Hancock) is also political.

Issuing badges for care workers when they dont have correct PPE is pointless.

I could go on but the UK's inept response to this virus is obviously going to draw political criticism.

I have family who are critical care nurses, working 6 x 12 hour shifts then on their days off they are making homemade protective hats because there is not enough protection provided!

 

[Wibble]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52329659

They are talking about beginning small scale manufacturing before testing is completed in a gamble that testing will complete successfully and the million doses don't have to be binned. This won't hugely shorten the timeline but any potential shortening of the timeline is a great idea. I also wonder if this million doses is so that if they get through stage 2 testing they can then immediately roll out large scale stage 3 testing in various countries with this million doses. Even so even if everything goes well (it works and there are no serious side-effects) this would fit with a 12-18 month time scale for full commercial roll-out. And 12-18 months would be truly exceptional as this normally takes much much longer.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-covid-19-vaccines-before-proof-idUSKBN21Z25M

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

So what so you guys think of this? Suggest that smoking actually protect you against Covid-19. Says its not a case closed ofcourse but still...

Interesting but may be premature or anomalous.
Maybe the layer of tar protects lungs from the virus. Might only be short term though, once the virus takes hold it would surely be harder to fight off as a smoker...

 

[11101]

It probably is. The higher end estimations for both are around R = 6 (though covid-19 has a much lower end R estimation).

What I don't understand is how both this and SARS have the same estimated R, but this has managed to infect a thousand time more people.

Estimates for both are a little off, and a tiny chance in infectiousness can have a big knock on effect.

SARS wasnt all that infectious, the R0 was skewed by a small number of super spreaders who infected in some cases up to 100 other people.

We've been calculating the R0 for Covid based on confirmed cases i.e mostly those with symptoms. When we figure out how many have it without symtpoms the number will inevitably go up. In the early stages of the Italian outbreak the R0 of known cases was up as high as almost 6.

 

[Coxy]

Using the European median for spending is misleading when you consider the size of the UK economy is much larger than most other countries in Europe.

Comparing with G7 countries is more of a fair comparison.

Our healthcare spending is 2nd from bottom from the G7 countries and only just over half what Germany spend.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...espendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29

NB. That was in 2011. Since then we have seen massive reductions in the rate of investment in the NHS.

Thanks for the link - not great reading :I

Clearly underfunded.

 

[Shakesy]

That'll be my last post on the subject for another week, I'll leave the doom merchants to it. Take care of yourself pal.

I do not approve of your social distancing.

 

[KiD MoYeS]

Some positive news in Ireland this morning is that social distancing measures have worked and as a result no peak is currently coming.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Some positive news in Ireland this morning is that social distancing measures have worked and as a result no peak is currently coming.

Yeah everything was handled so (surprisingly) well here. I know a few healthcare workers who have had none of the chaos in their hospitals that was seen in the likes of Italy and the US, too. Still have a few wankers complaining about the lockdown but that's to be expected. I reckon after May 5th we'll see some gradual easing of restrictions, now.