Interesting article and a useful reminder on the significance of contact tracing and looking for patterns of infection in new hotspots.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
The second spike in the spanish flu epidemic is thought to have started in a US Army camp in southern United states. These soldiers were then shipped over to Europe on a hellish voyage. Huge numbers fell very ill with a much more lethal strain. However they were allowed to disembark and spread along the western front, spreading the disease.
The second spike was bigger because the authorities kept it quiet because they wanted to keep factories open to continue the war effort. As the first wave had ended people started mixing again, and the celebrations of war ending helped maximise the spread even further.
They also did not have antibiotics to help deal with secondary bacterial lung infections.
The mutated second wave of the disease seemed to be more lethal to young fit people (probably creating a more violent cytokine storm) and the war put lots of young fit men in very close proximity.
I wouldn't expect a second peak to be necessarily more lethal, but can we afford to take a chance?
The dispersion factor (k) was interesting.
Also something so simple to overlook as the volume of your voice affecting the viral load transmitted, which means singing is churches is likely a near-perfect spreader and also makes you wonder about sporting events where everyone is yelling for hours (even if held outdoors).
It's a comforting thought for many that somehow this is the second peak.
The reality is that this is the first peak. None of these second peak theories have any support in the data on deaths in any country.
It does seem to be the case but i dont know why some think it's better if it is the second peak? It's not a two and done scenario and we know with reasonable certainty that prevalence is low. It seems in some minds the second peak is always the worse.
The discussion about waves and peaks in general is a bit odd to be honest.
Our neighbours have their daughter and 3 grandchildren round today. Rules are for suckers.
Simply testing their vision.
A small part of me is willing to believe that the response was curated with an intention to get people flouting the rules and going back to work, diluting the drama that surrounds schools reopening.
'Get to Nandos, plebs,' says pin-up boy Rishi, the apparently acceptable face of Conservatism.
They also weren't very fit anymore after 4 years of trench warfare. They were malnourished, diseased and exhausted.
Anybody seriously ill with the more deadly strain was taken off the frontlines and back to field hospitals in towns where they could spread it more easily. There are a lot of reasons why the second wave was so much more deadly that would not apply today.
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Following their instincts, exceptional circumstances etc.
This is true. But let’s not forget that this virus is many multiples more lethal than the one that caused the Spanish flu. And for all the miracles of modern medicine, management mainly involves crossing our fingers and hoping that the patient’s own immune system will do all the hard work.
This type of stuff has been going on for weeks where I live. I first saw house parties and large groups of lads hanging about 5 weeks ago. My neighbours had a garden party on Sunday.
Did you just skim it or actually digest it? My understanding is that this MP separated from his wife, when he came out identifying as gay, and they have been living separate lives since. This included his (I assume to be soon ex-) wife having a party in his former home. Why would you at all think less of him?
There's plenty of other reasons to think less of the guy though, but this ain't one.
Ive not seen house parties but youngsters hanging around together has become significantly more visible. To some extent i can understand rule breaking by kids but not adults. Depressing.
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So looks like we probably shouldn’t have much faith in the Moderna vaccine saving the day. Not when the people that run the company have cashed their chips in already.
Couple that with the CDC now saying that antibody tests are inaccurate up to 50% of the time and we are having a great day in Covid news.
I have absolutely no clue about stocks and shares but are the Moderna executives' actions rather dodgy-looking? It almost looks like a grand scheme to raise the company's value, and then cash in, while never actually having the desire to create a usable vaccine...
To be fair, we've known that bit about antibody tests being basically a coin toss for a while now (presume this is about finger prick tests with 95% specificity and assuming 5% prevalence) The more sophisticated tests which involve venous samples (made by Abbott and Roche) are supposed to be pretty good though. Unless I've missed something?!
I'd say they definitely wanted to create a usable vaccine. They're not complete monsters. It does look as though they're not very confident in this happening, mind you. Of course, if their lack of confidence is based on information that hasn't been shared outside the company then they could go to jail for insider trading.
Cheers. 
It looks bad but the article does mention that they were prescheduled sales under a legal framework that is pretty standard practice for execs of these corporations.
Not saying everything is fine, but it’s not black and white.
Ah, good.
Pffft. Who has the time to read an entire article when we can get the pitchforks out based on headlines alone? Buzzkiller!
I'd already lit the torches n' all...
Keem em lit, Steve. I’ll keep digging for inflammatory tweets. The day is still young!
Good work, chief. Unfortunately, I've set fire to the wrong end.
The idea of social distancing is to stop transmission of the virus.
What Cummings did was dispicable but energy needs to be put in by the media to highlight masses of the general public blatantly flouting the rules. They will be causing so much more harm than one silly wanker from Westminster.
That whole practice tends to be shady as feck and seems entirely set up as cover in what is already a hard to prove charge.
Sorry guys, they may well still be shady cnuts!
Even if they had prearranged orders setup to sell, there's an incentive then to push the price up if only temporarily. In a market as volatile as their own that's easily done without committing a crime.
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Probably bumped up a bit with bank holiday and lowish days but high nonetheless. Hope it's not VE day casualties.
It’s certainly possible, yes, but execs selling vested stock isn’t in itself dodgy.
412 deaths seems a bit of a jump
Bank holiday lag.412 deaths seems a bit of a jump
Bit of a joke listening to this speech about staying in and doing your bit for the country immediately after listening to Boris Defending Cummings for going wandering.
It’s more than a comedy sketch
It’s more than a comedy sketch
Wonder if/what extent test-track-trace will apply to NHS frontline staff. Because the very nature of our work in doctors offices etc means we are in close contact with staff without PPE. And if any team member tests positive with a mandatory close contact 14 day isolation could become very tricky for care home and other frontline staff to maintain rotas
Totally agree. Having said that it’s not only Cummings I want to see hammered. It’s every tosspot who has broken the lockdown guidelines since the beginning of March. This softly softly approach by the police after they were criticised for being too heavy handed In the beginning is coming back to bite us all.
In what way? The figures are going steadily in the right direction. The virus is done.
Yes, I'm sure this virus thing is all over now and life can get back to how it was with no repercussions...