Yeah that's the weekend effect, you get a lag in numbers due to delayed reporting from hospitals, care homes and others.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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More craven irresponsibility from the Mail:
One day isn't going to cause much of a spike and neither will most of the people in the social shaming pictures. It took quite a while initially for it to build noticable momentum and i imagine it'll be the same.Deaths are dropping despite the recent spike but we'll see next week if there's any spike from VE and so on.
From the lows of Sunday/Monday to Thurs day last week it was 1576 deaths, this week from the lows of Sun/Mon to Thurs it's 1162. Looks like a bit of lag bumping up Wed/Thurs.
If you look at the past month Tue is the highest day of each week of the step down usually but with bank holiday it was unusually very low and gave wed/thurs a bump higher than last weeks days.
Last 5 days average to 232 a day so we're quite a way off from double digits but hopefully next week can stay on the lowering trend.
Unfortunately people will see no immediate spike and take that as a pass to do whatever they like, it'll be that which pushes us gradually back to increases.
There will be plenty of public support if we start losing 800-1000 people a day again.
We never got to that level over here and even back then (young) people were already starting to complain.
Yeah, true. And it’s incredibly difficult to try and find that sweet spot where people are just the right amount of scared. I do think, overall, we’ve probably got the balance about right. Public shaming people for walking their dogs in the middle of nowhere or jumping into traffic to keep 2m away from joggers is a bit silly but that’s just one end of the spectrum, with people packing into small gardens for barbeques, or letting teenagers roam around all day in packs at the other. Without causing one set of behaviours, we would get more of the opposite. We tend to focus on the extremes but the success that so many countries have had at flattening the curve tell me that the PH measures have been about right, allowing for some variation between countries.
Because the more we learn about this virus the clearer it becomes that those measures were necessary. All available evidence points towards an IFR of about 1, we know for a fact that asymptomatic spread happens and it’s extremely infectious given the right circumstances. So we’re dealing with a formidable foe, that will kill millions if we don’t stay on top of it. And even if we focus only on the economic cost, that sort of death toll would be catastrophic. Many magnitudes more damaging to society than this recent lockdown.
“England is not a template for the rest of the UK to follow,” First Minister Mark Drakeford on BBC Breakfast, on being asked why Wales isn’t doing the same as England.
Deary me.
I'll have a discussion with you when you've stopped resorting to foul little lies.
Go and enjoy the sun
Last sentence was a cheap shot, I’ll give you thatDeary me.
I'll have a discussion with you when you've stopped resorting to foul little lies.
Go and enjoy the sun
Hopefully you’ll take on board the rest of the post.Fair enough.Last sentence was a cheap shot, I’ll give you that
I do not advocate that we all return to normal and forget this ever happened. Obviously the new normal is going to be different. We will have to socially distance when we can. We won't have mass gatherings. Personally, I think face masks should be compulsory on public transport and when shopping indoors We need a contact tracing system that's nimble, intelligent and is backed up by law. We need a new way of working. We need widespread testing. To name just a few and I'm supportive of all of that.
Snapping back to the society we had in February would be totally reckless. Which is why I don't advocate it.
Parrotting Trump? Back in January when this thread had 5 pages and very few were taking it that seriously on this side of the world?
You're acting the clown and must be extremely bored. Cheer up the football will be back soon
Cool. I’ve obviously misunderstood your take on this and I apologise. Sorry about that.
No problem
The very real problem is the continued assumption that the issues caused by fear and anxiety are things we will be primarily dealing with further down the line when we ease lockdown restrictions, when in reality they are something we are over 2 months into the midst of and are already at the point of damage limitation, and in quite a few cases doing and planning things which are just plain illogical.
The hospitality sector and people being scared to go into a pub is just one aspect of a massive web of problems that need a lot of thought and care put into them. Using my own workplace as an example...the thought process is very much that everyone works from home from now on...but the reality is that very few jobs can be done effectively this way, and people also rely naturally on social and personal interaction...without that there is no sense of normality and things like fear and anxiety quickly take control.
Another issue is how you train a building surveyor, health inspector, social care worker, housing officer, enviromental health expert, etc. when you only interact with them via zoom meetings and whatsapp messages...it is impossible (and again I'm only using examples from a single workplace here). So the end result here is that the people who are coming into the office and going out to visit busy workplaces and interact, are invariably the older 60+ people who have the necessary experience and knowledge to do it on their own, and so are dealing with increased stress and workload as well as a sense of isolation from their work colleagues.
Even in its pure basic terms of being a way to minimise the risk of death from the virus this just doesn't make any sense either in the immediate or longer term. Someone my age could walk into 1,000 busy workplaces and be less at risk than a 60 year old is by spending 20 minutes in a single busy workplace. There is no point having a blanket risk reduction in place if it means putting the exact people you are doing it to try to protect directly in the firing line, so there needs to be more flexible thinking. Where this will hit as well is that a lot of people working from home will face the prospect of losing their job or struggling quite badly with aspects like depression and a sense of worthlessness/isolation. Basic health also becomes an issue; "lol I've put on like 2 stone in lockdown and started smoking 2 packs a day again" - funny now. Less funny and more a major health concern when it's your life for the forseable future.
If you have no effective way to train and interact with staff, the immediate impact is also that you are paying a number of them to effectively do nothing, and when you are already making less money there's very quickly a problem there. The more medium term impact is you quite quickly find you don't have an effective workforce as you start to lose the people who you rely on and who could train and teach others. From a purely economic point of view, a bigger business might ride that out, a smaller one and a lot of public service sectors will really struggle quite badly to...and remember in the case of many businesses and all public service sectors we are over 2 months into this problem.
There needs to be a really carefully thought out balance of how to handle the fear factor in a way that also accounts for economic and mental/social wellbeing. The impression I get is that people seem to think that as long as furlough is a thing it's not a current problem...but unless a lot of planning and implementation is put in place now it's going to end up biting very hard and making life very miserable for a frankly catastrophic number of people.
In concerns me as well that the mental wellbeing of those told to shield or sel isolate has basically been forgotten about completely. People are bickering about football games and a guy driving to a castle, while there are elderly people living on their own who've not seen the outside world in 2 months and still can't even order a food delivery in many cases because there aren't enough people willing to deliver it to them, due to someone a third their age being scared into doing nothing.
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Our government is going pretty strong with their reopening. Starting June 19 fans will be allowed back at stadiums at 25% capacity initially. That means in some arenas here it will be 7k+, and in case of Polish Cup final it will be almost 15k.
You’re not the only one. Until that last post, all his previous posts were hinting the opposite
That’s a well thought through post. With some important points to consider. Especially the intolerable burden we’re putting on shielding/cocooning people. I’m kind of confused about what you see as the best way forward here though? Obviously, this has been pretty badly handled in the Uk. But where do you go from here? If you were in charge, what would you advise?
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Of course.
^FFS.^ I'm almost expecting My Two Cents to start airing, given the surreal times we live in.
Sounds like a Karl Pilkington story. Turns out... the lab was actually run by a couple of monkeys.
'Doctor Cornelius was quoted as saying...'
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So the scientists have said the UK remains at level 4 despite Boris saying he thinks we'll come down to level 3. That should mean lockdown isn't eased according to what the PM said previously? Seems unlikely we'll recognise it in anyway though
I'm not sure tbh. We fecked this all up at the begining and it's really difficult to see any easy way out now. One way or another difficult choices are going to have to be made. I think I just come to a view that people's mental wellbeing and quality of life is quite a fundamental thing, and which I feel has been lost amidst all the fear and panic.
There are so many different types of workplace and so many people in vastly different personal scenarios I don't think there is a route or piece of advice that even comes close to fitting everyone. I'm not an expert in how most workplaces work for example and I don't think anyone necessarily is. It's very much a case of making businesses and people as aware as you can of all these factors, and asking them to plan and deal with them at as individual a level as possible, and to do so now rather than wait, which is really tricky when also making sure people don't start doing anything silly.
My workplace for example, I definitely wouldn't have 60+ year old building surveyors visiting 10+ sites a day as is the case at the moment, while everyone else sits at home. It arguably doesn't need to be done and even if it does, you can send younger less experienced and less at risk people to most of these sites and ask for the support from the more senior members of the team as and when it is needed, or ask the younger members of the team to be in daily communication with them so there is feedback and advice being passed around. That way you also encourage communication between a team and you don't have situations where one person feels like they've been hung out to dry on their own, while another might be starting to feel worthless. A whatsapp group full of silly memes does little to help anyone...that's one thing I know for a fact. It creates resentment from the people doing the work. You don't need to be leaving homeless people waiting outside on the street when you have members of your homeless team sitting alone at home being told not to come in under any circumstance. Any kind of blanket tactic like this is, from what I've seen, going to do as much harm as good, and also feeds into the whole fear and anxiety. If you act like the air outside is poisoness, you're going to convince people that it is.
The problem is my ideal answer is that if I was in charge we'd have been in some form of lockdown around the time Boris was shaking hands with people in corona virus wards and telling everyone this is ok (really is a mystery how the likes of him and Cummings managed to catch it), and we'd be communicating a LOT more information to people, about social, economic, mental wellbeing factors and advice, etc..basically easing into trusting people more to make their own personal judgement at this point. Some guy on tv saying a school or shop can open because the R number is this...whether that's right or wrong it's not really going to reassure anyone. Especially not when the government is basically at a point of being held in contempt by a majority of the country.
I'm not even sure if that answered your question tbh. It's a really complex situation
We've had a good run, let the apes give it a go now.
I’m being devil’s advocate because there is no “correct” answer to my question! As you say, it’s an insanely complicated situation with no obvious answers. Completely agree that the way the government is held in so much contempt right now makes a terrible situation even worse.
And, to add to the shit show, the industry I work in (pharmaceuticals) has just been advised to assume that we’ll be trying to operate with a no deal Brexit from the end of this year. And, believe me, that is going to be a MASSIVE headfeck when it comes to getting the medicines to hospitals that they need to keep functioning. And will likely coincide with second covid wave. Something else we can thank Boris et al for landing us with.
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Whilst i don't disagree with any of that your point on policy by age isn't legal as a formal arrangement. My missus has been dealing with that issue for her employer (i like to eavesdrop) following staff requests and you just can't take such decisions without opening yourself up to risk.
The government could have intervened with clear guidelines but how far do you go in balancing risk of employees. A 60 year old woman vs a 40 year old obese male for instance. My missus actually had a case of an obese individual who didn't want to work and wanted full pay but they were under the criteria so the idiot told them he was going to go eat himself up to the BMI, nothing to do with your post but it shows the mess of employers judging risk.
Was his name Homer Simpson by any chance?
It's what I really don't get about people in this country. Our government has almost certainly been responsible for thousands of needless deaths and untold amount of misery already, and people only get annoyed because some guy drives to a castle.
Nobody gives a shit really, it's all a fecking farce, pissing around like it's the end of the world. Nobody has taken charge, and as a result people are letting their minds run away, and the politicians follow. A circle of thickness.
Denmark has lifted restrictions to Norway, Germany and Iceland. Norway has lifted restrictions to Denmark. Love how both countries have given the middle finger to Sweden.
That cant be good.
Now you mention it i like to think that's where he got the idea from
1) There is likely that in summer the spread gets slow down (stronger immunity system, more vitamin D, high temperature might weaken the virus etc). Many infections have gone like this (check Spanish flu, or cholera coming on waves etc). Anthony Fauci said that it was a certainty that it is gonna return.
2) I think you might be exaggerating with 70-80%. Probably there and a vocal minority that gives the impression that they are the majority. Though even 10-20% is a worry.
I think at the moment people are still very aware of the virus and a vast majority do their best to follow the guidelines as good as possible even though it might not always seem like it. My worry is mostly that if "nothing" (so low numbers basically) happens for months most people could easily start behaving less careful and "forget" about the guidelines till most of us essentially behave the same way we did in 2019. Summer might be an important factor in the lower numbers right now as well as more people socialize outside. In the end considering the amount of people who carry antibodies isn't exactly substantial a return to our old behavior could easily (should?) trigger another wave.
I for one welcome our Ape overlords!
I don't think 'only' is correct. The annoyance of Cummings' actions is something that people find easy to latch onto. I don't speak with too many people in the UK these days outside of a couple of friends and family, but their annoyance has been growing for weeks at the sheer incompetence and woolly leadership on display by the powers that be.
1) But we don't even have Summer here, it's 10-20 degrees for the last month with people going around and no growth in cases...
2) I have exaggerated with 70-80% but it won't be 10-20% either. We were at 5% of kids not getting vaccines two years ago, this is bound to have grown since so probably 10-15% just for regular vaccines for children. It will be way more refusing to take covid-19 vaccine.
Not here though. People did not care about rules towards the end when they were there, now it's pretty much normal life. I don't think we are much more careful than we had been before. I am, some of my friends are but vast majority are going about their life as previous. What is reducing the spread is that a lot of people work from home.