I ran a predicted number of excess deaths not counting CV19 in the US, (CDC) and got a range of 22-45k excess deaths. We cannot attribute all of these to CV19 directly and there is a large range of uncertainty, but there is a lot of room there for underreporting don't you think?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
Going by the groups in our local park you would think theyd found a vaccine.
We get what we deserve.
We get what we deserve.
As far as I can tell, we have eradicated Covid. Congrats planet.
COVID seems finished here in Poland. At least on the surface...definitely feels most people have moved on with life.
Today was the first day without mandatory mask law, and the streets and rynek looked identical to how it would on a normal spring/summer day. Everyone out enjoying the atmosphere, live music playing, people dancing with each other etc. Basically, if Nightclubs were open, you wouldn't know something such as Corona exists anymore outside. Had a coffee and cake with my friend this evening , sitting outside a cafe right at the market square...talking about life, and watching the talent pass by. Perfect day, though slightly chilly.
Not gonna lie, pleasant surprise as just 6 weeks ago we had helicopters in the sky monitoring people to ensure no more than 2 gather. The daily # of new cases since those days has no changed, despite increased testing AND massively fewer restrictions and distancing now. I feel like it's been floating at 300-400 a day for almost 6 weeks now.
Starting June 19, footy stadiums can have 25% of their capacity for the games too.
Today was the first day without mandatory mask law, and the streets and rynek looked identical to how it would on a normal spring/summer day. Everyone out enjoying the atmosphere, live music playing, people dancing with each other etc. Basically, if Nightclubs were open, you wouldn't know something such as Corona exists anymore outside. Had a coffee and cake with my friend this evening , sitting outside a cafe right at the market square...talking about life, and watching the talent pass by. Perfect day, though slightly chilly.
Not gonna lie, pleasant surprise as just 6 weeks ago we had helicopters in the sky monitoring people to ensure no more than 2 gather. The daily # of new cases since those days has no changed, despite increased testing AND massively fewer restrictions and distancing now. I feel like it's been floating at 300-400 a day for almost 6 weeks now.
Starting June 19, footy stadiums can have 25% of their capacity for the games too.
Everything seems to be pointing toward an increase in numbers so why are they so keen to go ahead?
Great news , I`ll go and tell my 80 year old father in law and my 77 year old mother in law they can finally go out . They have been stuck at home for ten weeks now and he has got Alzheimers and sleep apnoea and been asking my mother in law every 5 mins why they can`t go out. Best news all day .
Over 80% of the hospital beds are free and empty. Plus, now that it appears the mortality rate of the virus is far lower than first feared, I think the thinking is: "Well, even if you get sick, you're most likely to recover anyways. Just like any other illness."
Plus, we had lots protests by business owners, just overall mood in the society was increasingly frustrated and impatient and it was reflecting in daily behaviors approval ratings I suppose. A feel that if restrictions weren't officially loosened, then mass disobeyal would follow short of putting tanks on the streets and declaring martial law. And, I read a poll that in Poland, trust in Health Experts, Government and the Media are at a maximum low compared to most other countries when it comes to Covid news.
No complaints here though
, pleasantly surprised and looks like the summer won't be a bum as first feared What's more they're lying about, and hiding, the numbers so they'll be doing the same if there's a surge or second wave.
Yup, it’s quiet surprising how quickly it vanished in the end. Daily mail breaking the news tomorrow that we can resume life as normal so must be a good sign.
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That’s just money being transferred internally, it won’t actually solve the issue which is lack of significant influx of money from the outside. Though the fact New Zealanders won’t spend that money outside of their country will help. I’d imagine that the net travel spend in case of NZ/AU is definitely positive for them (basically more money is brought into those countries by foreign tourists than is left by their tourists outside of country). In case of country like Poland this will probably help as we have more people traveling outside than people coming in, I would imagine.
fecking Aucklanders coming down here
I agree. NZ relies on Tourism heavily as a function of GDP.
Many Kiwis take lots of money overseas though. Fiji is their closest neighbouring country. People routinely flock out that way. As well as to the neighbouring Pacific Islands too. That’s now off limits. Australia is for a while too.
They have a culture built around second homes that they retreat to for the month long period of almost-national summer holiday. That allows people to move around, rent a home out, rent someone else’s elsewhere. Money will keep flowing.
Their industries haven’t been hit as hard either. I know so many people out there and everyone is still employed, as are the people they know.
So of course, they need tourism dollars. Cruise Ships being absent will hit the Auckland restaurants hard.
But they have enough internal tourism to fill up all of the regions, for all of their popular seasons. They’ll do far better out of this than almost all countries in the short term. Ski season will be huge this year. They’ll thrive. Queenstown is a horror show with tourists at times. I’d love to go this year.
Possible to see again at 10.15?
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More evidence of low prevalence despite high death rate.
There’s been so much about this pandemic that makes it seem like the whole thing has been perfectly designed to feck with us.
The latest twist is a heat wave and civil unrest combining to create throngs of people on top of each other, all over the world, at the exact moment when the virus is ready to pick up a head of steam for the second wave. Life is just crazy right now. You couldn’t write it.
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The latest twist is a heat wave and civil unrest combining to create throngs of people on top of each other, all over the world, at the exact moment when the virus is ready to pick up a head of steam for the second wave. Life is just crazy right now. You couldn’t write it.
Within a few days, the idea of social distancing has gone out the window.
it actually comes down to behavioural psychology. The most recent reliable studies around habitual change state that for lasting behavioural change, you are looking at a minimum of 3 months of repetitive action before it becomes a permanent aspect of your life. We aren’t at the 3 month stage and there are also lots of other variables, but it’s no surprise that people will just go back to normal. Most people’s brain just don’t know better.
If lockdown had lasted 5-6 months, we would almost certainly have seen a lasting shift in the mentality of the masses.
Some of those deaths he's mentioning didn't happen yesterday, but back dated deaths which are just being reported on that day.
Plus with the Cummings debacle, and the shift from stay home to stay alert, it contributes to the shift
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Social distancing was never going to be feasible in the summer. It might be sellable in November if people start getting sick en masse again
Is this the government's second attempt at herd mentality, only this time with some experience rather than theory? There will be a second wave undoubtedly, but those at risk and those that live with at risk people will now be the weary ones that self isolate and the rest can get on with their lives (for want of a better phrase), specially if these dastardly anti body tests can be rolled out quicker.
One thing they haven't factored in yet is the chronic fatigue lasting months that a silent but large minority are suffering and that number will rise and become more prominent soon enough. I guess if they're not dying then they also will be managed over time.
One thing they haven't factored in yet is the chronic fatigue lasting months that a silent but large minority are suffering and that number will rise and become more prominent soon enough. I guess if they're not dying then they also will be managed over time.
The government's messaging switches from 'You MUST do this' to 'Make up your own mind about that' and back. It's emblematic of an administration which is, at once, naturally authoritarian yet also afraid to commit itself in case of future criticism.ITV said:
In the UK? I’m not confident about that. Surely people are more likely to distance and wait outside Wilkinsons when the weather is good. When it’s cold people will still visit each other but they won’t sit in the garden. Not sure. Interesting case study
I agree Steve they’ve been a total shambles but the point is we will have to learn to deal with this ourselves. The governments lack of action has forced us to sort it ourselves and the faster we learn to make decisions ourselves the better.
I don’t know how we get out of this mess but relying on government messaging is probably the last thing we should do.
Bizarre of the government to adjust the shielding advice, effectively overnight.
Really bizarre.
Really bizarre.
What we are likely to see is countries who has succeeded in bringing cases down to a low level begin opening up to each other.
Countries who lift their lock down early and continue to have a high rate of infection is unlikely to see large number of tourists flocking there anyway. I was joking with my wife that our holiday plans for the next year or two will be alternating between Nz/Aus.
Yeah that will be sensible and perfectly fair, but the reason these places make so much money from tourism is because thousands of people from the west flock there via London Madrid and New York. And if Europeans and Americans aren’t going, half these places aren’t opening
Trying to displace critical Sunday newspaper headlines perhaps?
1700 deaths is still terrible and far too high to consider reducing restrictions.
Australia is only just relaxing restrictions when they have a handful of new infections daily with very close to zero community transmissions and a total of 103 deaths (not per week).
It will be interesting to see who we allow in. We are worried that we may not be able to see our son who is in California for who knows how long.
You talking about European tourist spots?
I'm not 100 percent sure, but I think Aus/Nz IRAs getting more Chinese tourists nowadays. Ironically, China is likely to be one of the countries deemed "safe" to open up to.
I remember you said that your son is in California for studies now? He didn't leave for Australia? We flew back to Singapore on the last flight out of SFO
No. He wanted to stay. He is on a sport scholarship and he didn't want to be stuck in Australia and mlss the fall NCAA season. Of course it may well get cancelled now.
Which sport? And school?
Water Polo - UCSB
I think Australia had roughly 8.5 million international tourists last year. Interestingly, about 4 million came from China, Japan, SK, HK, Singapore and NZ, all countries which could reasonably have their tourists allowed in the short to medium term.
Though of course everyone in those countries are more likely tp be undertaking more domestic tourism themselves in the near future you feel.
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US healthcare is so messed up.