SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

Virgil

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I only speak through jealousy! Being of the generation before mine gave people a way of life I don't think any future generations will be able to enjoy, sadly.
And for my part in that I am truly sorry. Without doubt my generation had the very best of it. No world wars, no Great Depression, full employment, jobs for life, defined benefit pensions.....the list goes on. We really did have the chance to change the world and we failed miserably. Sadly I see no real change with the current generation. Mind you hope springs eternal.
 

Nytram Shakes

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Ok, grand, then I agree.

In Ireland we have a (cautious) plan to exit lockdown with every step laid out until August. There were loads of warnings at the beginning that we might not be able to progress as quickly as planned, if cases start to rise. They didn’t say it but I’m sure the opposite is also true. We can progress quicker than planned if things look better than expected. Based on what is happening here AND experience from other countries. There needs to be a willingness to flex the plan in both directions. I’m sure there is.

My only concern is politically motivated hastiness, which ignores the evidence and opinion of experts. This might be happening in the UK right now. Hopefully not.
I think there is definitely a hastiness, which is probably ignoring medical advice. But I suspect it isn't political more financial. In an ideal world, I'm sure the best medical thing to do would keep lockdown going for several more months. However, the country is living off its credit card, more and more people are needing support every day and to be fair the government isn't doing a bad job of providing it. But there are going to be serious financial implications for that and the sooner that can stop the better for everyone.

What the government have to deal with:
  • The economic advisers going we need to open the economy now or the long term recession is going to be deeper, the cuts we need to make harsher and rise in poverty (with combined health consequences) greater.
  • The health advisors going we can't open up as there may be a second spike and cause more deaths.
I'm not a Borris fan, I think he is bumbling manipulative git and I count myself as very left-wing, but if I'm honest I'm finding it hard to criticise him as I haven't got the foggiest what the right answer is, in fact, I'm pretty sure there isn't one, open up more people will likely die, don't open up and many more will likely live in poverty for a lot longer.... how the hell do you make the decision? No matter what you do people are going to suffer because of it.
 

afrocentricity

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When will the UK numbers start to show the effects of people going out and interacting more recently?
 

Virgil

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I think there is definitely a hastiness, which is probably ignoring medical advice. But I suspect it isn't political more financial. In an ideal world, I'm sure the best medical thing to do would keep lockdown going for several more months. However, the country is living off its credit card, more and more people are needing support every day and to be fair the government isn't doing a bad job of providing it. But there are going to be serious financial implications for that and the sooner that can stop the better for everyone.

What the government have to deal with:
  • The economic advisers going we need to open the economy now or the long term recession is going to be deeper, the cuts we need to make harsher and rise in poverty (with combined health consequences) greater.
  • The health advisors going we can't open up as there may be a second spike and cause more deaths.
I'm not a Borris fan, I think he is bumbling manipulative git and I count myself as very left-wing, but if I'm honest I'm finding it hard to criticise him as I haven't got the foggiest what the right answer is, in fact, I'm pretty sure there isn't one, open up more people will likely die, don't open up and many more will likely live in poverty for a lot longer.... how the hell do you make the decision? No matter what you do people are going to suffer because of it.
+101 if I could. If I were Starmer I would be thanking my lucky stars that my party lost the last election.
 

F-Red

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When will the UK numbers start to show the effects of people going out and interacting more recently?
In about a fortnight if it happens. I'm not sure what we will see, Bank Holidays haven't had a material affect in the death rate.
 

decorativeed

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And for my part in that I am truly sorry. Without doubt my generation had the very best of it. No world wars, no Great Depression, full employment, jobs for life, defined benefit pensions.....the list goes on. We really did have the chance to change the world and we failed miserably. Sadly I see no real change with the current generation. Mind you hope springs eternal.
You missed out the music and being able to watch a match and neck eight pints while still having change from a fiver. But I forgive you!
 

jojojo

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Pogue Mahone

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Spanish cities are following up on this. Valencia have trials underway and are hoping that they can go one step further by chasing infections back up the sewer system to find individual hotspots - like a factory or a school. It almost sounds too easy.
https://elpais.com/ciencia/2020-05-31/dentro-de-las-cloacas-en-busca-del-asesino-invisible.html

I assume similar projects are underway elsewhere.
The funny thing is, I actually stumbled across a tweet from a statistician pointing out a mistake in the statistical analysis (apparently quite a basic fundamental error, although way over my head obviously!) which completely undermines their findings. They were being asked to write a retraction. This is happening a lot now, with preprints shared far and wide before peer review. Hopefully the Spanish PH docs get to see the final publication before they finalise their plans!
 

sullydnl

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I think there is definitely a hastiness, which is probably ignoring medical advice. But I suspect it isn't political more financial. In an ideal world, I'm sure the best medical thing to do would keep lockdown going for several more months. However, the country is living off its credit card, more and more people are needing support every day and to be fair the government isn't doing a bad job of providing it. But there are going to be serious financial implications for that and the sooner that can stop the better for everyone.

What the government have to deal with:
  • The economic advisers going we need to open the economy now or the long term recession is going to be deeper, the cuts we need to make harsher and rise in poverty (with combined health consequences) greater.
  • The health advisors going we can't open up as there may be a second spike and cause more deaths.
I'm not a Borris fan, I think he is bumbling manipulative git and I count myself as very left-wing, but if I'm honest I'm finding it hard to criticise him as I haven't got the foggiest what the right answer is, in fact, I'm pretty sure there isn't one, open up more people will likely die, don't open up and many more will likely live in poverty for a lot longer.... how the hell do you make the decision? No matter what you do people are going to suffer because of it.
Aye, I think that's fair.

Though even accepting that lockdown will last X weeks and there's no right answer as to how long X should be, it's still fair to criticize the government & Boris for not implementing it well enough, I think. If I was in the UK I would be less bothered by how many weeks the lockdown ultimately lasts and more bothered by the idea that the government didn't make the most of the opportunity those weeks presented. Whether that be because they mistimed it, because they botched the messaging around it, because they struggled logistically to support it or because they leave it ill-prepared for the next stage of what's to come.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Aye, I think that's fair.

Though even accepting that lockdown will last X weeks and there's no right answer as to how long X should be, it's still fair to criticize the government & Boris for not implementing it well enough, I think. If I was in the UK I would be less bothered by how many weeks the lockdown ultimately lasts and more bothered by the idea that the government didn't make the most of the opportunity those weeks presented. Whether that be because they mistimed it, because they botched the messaging around it, because they struggled logistically to support it or because they leave it ill-prepared for the next stage of what's to come.
I definitely think there’s huge uncertainty about how quickly you can safely open up. Whatever the decision is, though, it needs to be communicated clearly, with the rationale provided in a way that people can understand and get behind.

And that’s where BoJo et al have been getting this wrong from day one. Too much bluster, too little clarity and attention to detail. Sums him up as a leader and as a person.
 

jojojo

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The funny thing is, I actually stumbled across a tweet from a statistician pointing out a mistake in the statistical analysis (apparently quite a basic fundamental error, although way over my head obviously!) which completely undermines their findings. They were being asked to write a retraction. This is happening a lot now, with preprints shared far and wide before peer review. Hopefully the Spanish PH docs get to see the final publication before they finalise their plans!
If the Spanish intention is to do the "chase the source upstream" thing then it won't matter much if the "whole town early warning system" idea doesn't pan out :smirk:

It just makes it more useful as the number of cases falls. Especially as lots of big installations like factories/hotels will have a point in the drainage system where they can sample the flow and return sewerage samples to a public health lab daily. What a project!

- says someone with family members in the water and waste water industry.
 

horsechoker

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It's now been 2 weeks since Italy reopened many places and today there were 178 new cases, 60 deaths while total active cases decreased by 708.

If it continues like this then we can start to believe that virus is either becoming weaker or that it doesn't spread when people are outdoors and wearing masks, gloves etc.
 

Pexbo

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But Karen from Facebook said a second wave is coming...
All the Karen’s from Facebook I know have always said it’s just the flu. It’s almost like Karen is becoming a straw woman.
 

spiriticon

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All the Karen’s from Facebook I know have always said it’s just the flu. It’s almost like Karen is becoming a straw woman.
CV-19 is just a flu.
Measles is just a rash.
Cancer is 'just a lump'

Society has always downplayed disease through the times for some wierd reason.

That's why we need to 'raise awareness' all the bloody time.
 

11101

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Would be fantastic if the virus really has weakened this quickly. Seems a bit unlikely though. Do you think what’s happening might be down to the average patient being younger than they were when the epidemic first hit?
Another two senior Italian doctors have come out with similar today.

The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago
The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today
Really hope they're right.
 

Dancfc

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Anyone know why worldometers has uk deaths as 556 for today?
There's been death added from the previous month and a half. They've been added to the appropriate dates and not today so not sure what worldometers is playing it, no suprise Piers Morgan has jumped on it for his scaremongering campaign however.
 

Tibs

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When will the UK numbers start to show the effects of people going out and interacting more recently?
The graph shown in the daily press conferences showing the 7 day average for new cases had been going down (slowly but surely) from the peak, however that has now began levelling off. The next 4-5 days will be interesting.

I think the biggest danger is people now no longer giving a feck even if they start showing symptoms, and will wait that extra day or two before staying indoors. But by that point, the damage (spreading to others) will be done
 

massi83

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Another two senior Italian doctors have come out with similar today.





Really hope they're right.
Wouldn't the simplest explanation be that they have time to test less sick people? Whereas 2 months ago they basicly had capacity to test only people coming to the hospital.
 

VintageWhatnots

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There's been death added from the previous month and a half. They've been added to the appropriate dates and not today so not sure what worldometers is playing it, no suprise Piers Morgan has jumped on it for his scaremongering campaign however.
Fair enough, didn't know Piers had mentioned it, I just have the worldometers table open permanently to check the daily updates.

I assume they have to add it like that, so the total is correct. But certainly makes things look worse than they are.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Wouldn't the simplest explanation be that they have time to test less sick people? Whereas 2 months ago they basicly had capacity to test only people coming to the hospital.
That was my first thought. Especially the comment about viral load. If the virus really had become less lethal you wouldn’t expect a lower viral load, just less symptoms.
 

Tibs

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To those more learned that I, why would the virus weaken? If it is, is it a lasting thing and eventually it will fizzle out, or does come back stronger at some point?
 

11101

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Wouldn't the simplest explanation be that they have time to test less sick people? Whereas 2 months ago they basicly had capacity to test only people coming to the hospital.
They are both heads of big hospitals in Northern Italy, so i would assume they are still only talking about people who turn up at hospital. They're not government so i don't think they are seeing overall figures.
 

afrocentricity

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The graph shown in the daily press conferences showing the 7 day average for new cases had been going down (slowly but surely) from the peak, however that has now began levelling off. The next 4-5 days will be interesting.

I think the biggest danger is people now no longer giving a feck even if they start showing symptoms, and will wait that extra day or two before staying indoors. But by that point, the damage (spreading to others) will be done
Fecking bleak ain't it? Fingers crossed anyway...
 

Revan

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To those more learned that I, why would the virus weaken? If it is, is it a lasting thing and eventually it will fizzle out, or does come back stronger at some point?
There is absolutely no evidence that the virus has weakened. A random doctor saying so does not hold more weight than a random person in Facebook saying so.

Only a detailed, data-driven peer-reviewed large-scale study can shed light to it, and give an answer with confidence.
 

11101

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There is absolutely no evidence that the virus has weakened. A random doctor saying so does not hold more weight than a random person in Facebook saying so.

Only a detailed, data-driven peer-reviewed large-scale study can shed light to it, and give an answer with confidence.
That's pushing it a bit. The people saying it could be weakening are all senior people from Covid hospitals in Northern Italy. It's not conclusive but it's a bit different than Dave from Facebook posting a meme about it.
 

Revan

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That's pushing it a bit. The people saying it could be weakening are all senior people from Covid hospitals in Northern Italy. It's not conclusive but it's a bit different than Dave from Facebook posting a meme about it.
There were also experienced doctors who were using hydroxychloroquine. Obviously, their opinions might hold a bit more value than mine and those of the average Joe, but still, to actually have something that is somewhat conclusive, there need to be large-scale studies and peer-reviewed from professionals. Anecdotal evidence is all good, but it should not hold any value when deciding how to proceed.
 

Sigma

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To those more learned that I, why would the virus weaken? If it is, is it a lasting thing and eventually it will fizzle out, or does come back stronger at some point?
Viruses normally 'weaken' over time because the weaker they become the stronger they become (i.e. not killing your host allows more transmission of the virus than killing your host and so in an ideal world for the virus, it would be weak enough not to kill it's host). However, to my knowledge this process is not typically this fast.
 

prateik

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Gilead Falls as Drug Has Only Small Benefit in Large Trial

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nly-modest-benefit-in-large-trial-shares-fall

In the phase 3 trial, a group of moderately ill, hospitalized patients getting the drug for five days showed a modest improvement compared to those getting the standard of care, the company said in a statement. But another group getting the drug for 10 days didn’t show a statistically significant improvement, which is likely to raise questions about why a longer course doesn’t help more. Severely ill patients weren’t included in the trial.
 

Revan

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Gilead Falls as Drug Has Only Small Benefit in Large Trial

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nly-modest-benefit-in-large-trial-shares-fall

In the phase 3 trial, a group of moderately ill, hospitalized patients getting the drug for five days showed a modest improvement compared to those getting the standard of care, the company said in a statement. But another group getting the drug for 10 days didn’t show a statistically significant improvement, which is likely to raise questions about why a longer course doesn’t help more. Severely ill patients weren’t included in the trial.
Shit. Remdesevir was supposed to be the drug with the highest chance of working.
 

Pexbo

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I thought it’s an incremental thing too? Any drug with small gains, even if just for a few days could be eventually be a crucial component of a compound medication?
 

jojojo

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Shit. Remdesevir was supposed to be the drug with the highest chance of working.
I think it was only ever really "just another drug" in a long list of the ones worth trialling and that even in the early trials it wasn't making much impact - not enough to be a great bet at any rate, despite looking like a potential frontrunner in the US at one stage.

To give an idea of some of this week's starting trials in the UK and beyond:
The five drugs, which can be disclosed for the first time, are:

  • Heparin, a blood-thinning drug used in hospitals up and down the country. It will be given to Covid-19 patients for the first time next month. In a number of conditions it has been shown that if it is nebulised rather than injected, it can “have a dramatic effect in the lung”, said Wilkinson. “It is a big sticky molecule which can attach to viruses and stop them from entering cells and secondly it may have an important anti-inflammatory effect”. Tests of heparin will be highly anticipated because it is already widely used, shown to be widely tolerated, and is naturally occurring and therefore can be produced cheaply in huge quantities if proven to be effective.
  • Bemcentinib, a tablet developed by the Norwegian company BerGenBio, which is used to treat blood disorders. “It has been shown, almost by chance, to have a potent antiviral effect” to reduce infection in experiments on a number of viruses including Ebola and Sars coronavirus-2, said Wilkinson. It appears to work by preventing the virus infecting the cells but also by reducing its replication within healthy cells by keeping the innate immunity created by type 1 interferon proteins active. Healthy cells usually “switch off the entire machinery so the virus can’t hijack it”, said Wilkinson, but Covid-19 “subverts this” and this drug may help cells against viral attack, he added.
  • Medi3506, an anti-inflammatory injection being developed for skin disorders and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but which has also been used in trials for asthma by AstraZeneca. It acts to dampen down the cytokine storm that causes the immune system to go into overdrive and cause fever, inflammation and fatigue.
  • Calquence, another AstraZeneca drug, used to treat mantle cell lymphoma. It acts as an inhibitor of the enzyme known as Bruton’s tyrosine kinase (BTK) and was developed for severe lung inflammation. It was chosen for a formal trial after anecdotal evidence showed a reduced incidence of complications from Covid infection or severe lung injuries.
  • Zilucoplan, a drug developed by the Belgian biopharma company UCB, which is already in trial for potential treatment of myasthenia gravis, a skeleto-muscular disorder. Hopes centre on its ability to stop the overactivation of “complement cascade”, part of the immune system that can kill cells and lead to catastrophic lung and tissue damage. “A lot of the damage is focused on the blood cells and the very small blood vessels in the lung.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...l-five-new-drugs-search-coronavirus-treatment

One of the problems they're having now is that they're running out of new hospital patients to do trials on, so a lot of things (even small scale preliminary studies) rely on multinational trials.