SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[C'est Moi Cantona]

See nobody cares discussing Scandinavia
We are on our own here
On a serious note, what path are Sweden following?

I care, they are quite likely to get things right, and also look after their people the best.

Sweden is an odd one though, only from reports I cannot validate in any way, but a report from today for example.

'Sweden will permit restaurants, bars and primary schools to remain open, with gatherings of 500 people or more still allowed to take place'

So they seem to have taken the view to bring in less drastic changes, but still advise to stay at home if you are ill, walk a metre apart, and have closed secondary schools, etc, this to see a ' slow and steady increase in cases, but not overwhelm the health service', these rules are obviously very relaxed compared with most others though, but it's impossible at this point to say they are wrong.

 

[King Eric 7]

I only have a basic understanding of it so I dunno, maybe? I would have thought that as well as decreasing symptoms a lower viral load would also decrease shedding and the R0 would decrease. Is there some study or other that finds folk on the Diamond Princess were exposed to an abnormally large amount?

Unfortunately, my understanding of this subject is rather limited and that's why I chucked a question at yours as a possible explanation. Perhaps someone with more knowledge of it can shed some more light on it.

I was reading this article here: https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180

Which stated the following:

Most of the infections on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship appear to have occurred before or around the start of the 2-week quarantine that started on 5 February 2020, which further highlights the potent transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, especially in confined settings. To further mitigate transmission of COVID-19 and bring the epidemic under control in areas with active transmission, it may be necessary to minimise the number of gatherings in confined settings.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

If America do not follow the isolation process, what are the projections for cases/deaths?

Imperial College projected that if America take the 'carry on as normal' approach, it could be anywhere up to 4 million will die.

Last I saw was 1.8 million from our projections.

Which is still a horrendous number, of course.

 

[Moiraine]

I care, they are quite likely to get things right, and also look after their people the best.

Sweden is an odd one though, only from reports I cannot validate in any way, but a report from today for example.

'Sweden will permit restaurants, bars and primary schools to remain open, with gatherings of 500 people or more still allowed to take place'

So they seem to have taken the view to bring in less drastic changes, but still advise to stay at home if you are ill, walk a metre apart, and have closed secondary schools, etc, this to see a ' slow and steady increase in cases, but not overwhelm the health service', these rules are obviously very relaxed compared with most others though, but it's impossible at this point to say they are wrong.

Today’s death toll reported from Stockholm area is 18 and Norway 14 so far in total. Maybe Sweden needs to review their approach!

 

[Shakesy]

Heading towards half a feckin million. And that's just those who were tested.

I wonder how many have lost their jobs due to lockdown?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

How would this study account for the much larger proportion of hospitalisations seen on the Diamond Princess?

Diamond Princess population not very representative of the community at large. Greater proportion of elderly people and (I think?) no kids at all.

 

[Suedesi]

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[kouroux]

I didn't know that it was stopped in the South. Apparently the reason no one even tried to stop it in Somaliland is because doing so would cause war with the government and the sub-tribes of the main importers. A tribal cartel, basically. The myth I was referring to is the last one you mentioned. Some moronic preachers have been telling people that this disease is a curse from Allah to the Chinese for their treatment of Uighur people, and that Muslims are immune to it (presumably in this 'logic' Iranians get it because they are Shia, not Sunni). It's baffling that mosques would be open!

The mosques are closed but it doesn't stop people from praying together and very close to each other. They think their faith is a shield against Corona or something. I respect their faith but this is just reckless and ignorant on so many levels since if they wanna follow the religion, they should know that in a situation like this, people are told to pray on their own.

 

[Prometheus]

You are not immune but for a healthy 21 year old not employed in the medical profession to die from it would be a huge statistical outlier.

I suppose. What do you think of the Iranian numbers? 11 professional athletes looks way too high for the total official numbers!

 

[Volumiza]

Fear I may have it. Have had a dry cough for 12 days now (self isolated immediately save grocery runs which I’m regretting now), recently got diarrhea and this dull pain in the chest (no breathing difficulty). Sense of taste and smell still there. No fever either
Not serious enough to get a test though (am 30)

Take care.

 

[C'est Moi Cantona]

Today’s death toll reported from Stockholm area is 18 and Norway 14 so far in total. Maybe Sweden needs to review their approach!

I'm not for experiments in times like this, but there is no way of saying we are right and they are wrong at this point, recriminations later on will be brutal later on though for whoever has called this wrong.

Countries could have totally fecked their economies for very little gain, if the countries who have taken a far softer approach end up in a similar way, but equally it could go the other way.

 

[SteveJ]

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I can understand, if not appreciate, the Prime Minister being advised by Cummings on election matters but why on earth would Johnson follow his advice about a health crisis?

 

[Adisa]

Wasnt it just day before yesterday the US death toll was <500?

 

[jojojo]

I'm not sure if this has already been mentioned on here. But this agreement to give free mobile data access to the NHS websites is a small but excellent move:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ata-charges-for-online-nhs-coronavirus-advice

In amongst all the other news, I feel this has probably got lost but for PAYG and no data customers this is good news. However, the first I heard of it was tonight at an (online) Meetup group session where someone described how they'd got the various groups to agree to it.

Apparently text/emails are going out today/tomorrow on the relevant networks. Anyone seen one yet?

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

I suppose. What do you think of the Iranian numbers? 11 professional athletes looks way too high for the total official numbers!

11 out of a population of what? People that age will get sick, and sicker without proper treatment, plenty of athletes will have underlaying health problems. Iran has a population of over 80 million and a dog shit health service.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

Wasnt it just day before yesterday the US death toll was <500?

U need to remember the US has no boarders and a population of over 320 million, there figures will be huge.

 

[Neo_Mufc]

I hope its the minority but a few scumbags trying to nick NHS lanyards to nab themselves free food. Wtf is wrong with people.

 

[Prometheus]

The mosques are closed but it doesn't stop people from praying together and very close to each other. They think their faith is a shield against Corona or something. I respect their faith but this is just reckless and ignorant on so many levels since if they wanna follow the religion, they should know that in a situation like this, people are told to pray on their own.

Yeah, that renders mosques being closed useless. I agree. This is where religious authorities being proactive and knowledgeable about things would help, but instead many of them are spewing the most unhelpful advise possible.

 

[Sarni]

Oxford University study.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all."

This makes no sense whatsoever from mathematics point of view. 7.5k people have died in Italy so far, less than 500 in UK. That means how many people would have got sick to get to that many deaths in Italy, 400 million? Even if you factor in demographics it makes no sense that Lombardy alone has several times death toll of UK and cases keep piling up. It’s one thing to argue that there are more cases than reported, which is certainly true, and another to put a realistic number on this assumption. 50% of population is just thick guess.

 

[Fully Fledged]

Are they not going to release the figures for England tonight?

 

[Samid]

Are they not going to release the figures for England tonight?

28 deaths. Ages range between 47 and 93.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Diamond Princess population not very representative of the community at large. Greater proportion of elderly people and (I think?) no kids at all.

Sure, average age was 62 I think, so much older than any given country. I think something like 20% had serious symptoms though. That must surely be well in advance of what is predicted for the 60+ age bracket if the Oxford study is modelling a vulnerable population of 1% for society as a whole.

I'm concerned they've retrospectively adapted certain variables in their model order to arrive at something that mirrors the current UK death rate. I would hope they've used the same model to predict how we'll fare over the coming days and weeks.

 

[Prometheus]

11 out of a population of what? People that age will get sick, and sicker without proper treatment, plenty of athletes will have underlaying health problems. Iran has a population of over 80 million and a dog shit health service.

11 athletes dead out of 27,017 reported cases and 2,077 reported deaths. Those were prominent athletes.

It doesn't make sense.

 

[Fully Fledged]

28 deaths. Ages range between 47 and 93.

Thanks

 

[Classical Mechanic]

You got the link? Be interesting to see.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-uk-how-many-confirmed-cases-are-in-your-area

It looks to be done by councils. For Greater Manchester you get one for each of the 10 boroughs.

 

[Dante]

11 athletes dead out of 27,017 reported cases and 2,077 reported deaths. Those were prominent athletes.

It doesn't make sense.

They could have been doping, for all we know.

Professional athletes are concerned with performance more than health. Whilst it's true that those two things often overlap, they don't always. Particularly with athletes operating at the extremes.

 

[Fully Fledged]

That not very nice but who needs ice cream right now?

Make sure whatever you buy is sealed.

 

[redshaw]

​

UK Dates​	UK Deaths​	Italy Dates​	Italy Deaths​	Spain Dates​	Spain Deaths​	France Dates​	France Deaths​
March 8th​	3​	Feb 23rd​	3​	March 5th​	3​	March 2nd​	3​
March 9th​	5​	Feb 24th​	7​	March 6th​	8​	March 3rd​	4​
March 10th​	6​	Feb 25th​	11​	March 7th​	10​	March 4th​	4​
March 11th​	8​	Feb 26th​	12​	March 8th​	17​	March 5th​	7​
March 12th​	10​	Feb 27th​	17​	March 9th​	30​	March 6th​	9​
March 13th​	11​	Feb 28th​	21​	March 10th​	36​	March 7th​	16​
March 14th​	21​	Feb 29th​	29​	March 11th​	55​	March 8th​	19​
March 15th​	35​	March 1st​	41​	March 12th​	86​	March 9th​	30​
March 16th​	55​	March 2nd​	52​	March 13th​	133​	March 10th​	33​
March 17th​	71​	March 3rd​	79​	March 14th​	196​	March 11th​	48​
March 18th​	104​	March 4th​	107​	March 15th​	294​	March 12th​	61​
March 19th​	144​	March 5th​	148​	March 16th​	342​	March 13th​	79​
March 20th​	177​	March 6th​	197​	March 17th​	533​	March 14th​	91​
March 21st​	233​	March 7th​	233​	March 18th​	638​	March 15th​	127​
March 22nd​	281​	March 8th​	366​	March 19th​	833​	March 16th​	148​
March 23rd​	335​	March 9th​	463​	March 20th​	1,093​	March 17th​	175​
March 24th​	422​	March 10th​	631​	March 21st​	1,381​	March 18th​	244​
March 25th​	468​	March 11th​	827​	March 22nd​	1,813​	March 19th​	372​
March 26th​	​	March 12th​	1,016​	March 23rd​	2,207​	March 20th​	450​
​	​	March 13th​	1,266​	March 24th​	2,696​	March 21st​	562​
​	​	March 14th​	1,441​	March 25th​	3,434​	March 22nd​	674​
​	​	March 15th​	1,809​	March 26th​	​	March 23rd​	860​
​	​	March 16th​	2,158​	​	​	March 24th​	1100​
​	​	March 17th​	2,503​	​	​	March 25th​	1331​

​

At least a small rise in deaths.

RedSky, I can't retrieve the US data you added to the table, it's stuck in a quote.

​

 

[Kinsella]

In ireland a group of teenagers surrounded a female jogger and kept coughing at her. She happens to be a nurse. Why are teens such little scumbags?

Partly because the chances of said group getting a smack for said behaviour lies somewhere between slim and none.

 

[Wumminator]

28 deaths. Ages range between 47 and 93.

That isn’t for England is it?

 

[GeorgieBoy]

That isn’t for England is it?

It is. I was surprised also.

 

[Wumminator]

Well that is really good news!

 

[11101]

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I don't see why people fall for these clickbait articles. What do two American academics know about the UK's situation and policymaking? Next to nothing. Just because you're an expert in one thing doesn't mean you're an expert in everything.

I suppose. What do you think of the Iranian numbers? 11 professional athletes looks way too high for the total official numbers!

I haven't really paid any attention to Iranian numbers because i think they're a load of rubbish. I know in Italy nobody under the age of 30 has died, in Spain something like 5 people have and most/all had pre-existing conditions, and in China it was an equally low number. That's about 75% of total deaths so it would be peculiar if other countries start showing wildly different statistics.

Having said that, plenty of people in those countries would have died had they not gone into ICU. If Iran and other countries can't provide that they will have different numbers.

 

[bri2013]

I'm not sure if this has already been mentioned on here. But this agreement to give free mobile data access to the NHS websites is a small but excellent move:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ata-charges-for-online-nhs-coronavirus-advice

In amongst all the other news, I feel this has probably got lost but for PAYG and no data customers this is good news. However, the first I heard of it was tonight at an (online) Meetup group session where someone described how they'd got the various groups to agree to it.

Apparently text/emails are going out today/tomorrow on the relevant networks. Anyone seen one yet?

I got one of these these texts from 3 today

 

[Samid]

That isn’t for England is it?

Nope. It's for the UK.

 

[Fully Fledged]

That isn’t for England is it?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431

Coronavirus: UK deaths rise to 465 after 28 people die in England in last 24 hours

 

[Classical Mechanic]

The stats for UK are taking a different path to Italy and Spain in the last 4 days. Italy went up by 600 in the same time the UK‘s have gone up 230. It is encouraging but let’s not get excited yet.

 

[sullydnl]

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Our President wrote us a poem. Good lad.

 

[Fully Fledged]

The stats for UK are taking a different path to Italy and Spain in the last 4 days. Italy went up by 600 in the same time the UK‘s have gone up 230. It is encouraging but let’s not get excited yet.

No chickens counted here. One day at a time.

 

[Fully Fledged]

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Our President wrote us a poem. Good lad.

It should have been, 'Careful Now'.