SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Sucks to be 65 with a pre-existing condition
Obviously it's not a full solution, but it reduces the spread of the virus. If I'm wearing one and you're wearing one, or even if just one of us is, then it's much better than both of us wearing none. Moreover, how sick you get from the virus depends on how much of the virus gets in your system initially (aka the viral load), according to studies. So even if it doesn't stop 100% of the particles, a reduction in how much of the virus you start with is quite good.
Interesting video, lots of very informative points!
Regarding the masks, the most important take home point for me was that the general public in Korea have access to N95 equivalent masks. In Europe and the USA, there has been a lot of talk of using just home made cloths which isn't the same. He didn't really touch upon this part of the debate about the use of home made masks.
He emphasies the fact these Asian countries also have experience with dealing with outbreaks and a different culture. I think this needs to continually be stressed.
He says early in the video you need a mask for indoors but not really for ourdoors. So it is quite surprising that neither of them are wearing a mask!
Finally, I thought it was odd that he seemed to imply transmission from sneezing/coughing is one mechanism, transmission from indirect contact with surfaces is another and then the third was "aerosol transmission" from breathing. I don't see why you would separate out sneezing/coughing and breathing - the physics are studied in a similar way and are pretty similar except for the initial droplet size and velocity distributions. Again, saying water droplets in air are "light" is incorrect terminolgy. Also saying droplets are anything > 5 micron is incorrect. But this last paragraph is me just being pedantic.
My local Tesco Express did same thing. It's also a petrol station, with the 2 metre queuing rule, the 1 way rule and blocking off half the shop. It made it so much worse.
We've just had a 3 minute's silence here, for the Qingming festival (清明节). A day where China remembers it's dead, a tradition going back over 2500 years! This year definitely more poignant than most.
It's been a long thread and I've definitely glossed over some of it, so apologies if I'm mistaken, but is that really what the majority of discussion is about? How the masks protect 'you' the wearer? Because I thought the main arguments in favour of masks were more about how masks can help mitigate community spread? At least that is the argument that makes most logical sense to me and is at least one of the main points proponents of mask wearing have put forward here. After all asymptomatic spread is a feature of this virus. I think this difference may lie at the centre of some misunderstandings or disagreements on the topic.
Agreed. With the lack of testing in US, you don't know if you're infected or not. Also, although a non-N95 mask is not 100% filter out the virus when an infected person coughing, but it reduces the amount of virus loaded droplets coming out to the open air.
If that article ever gets out, I guarantee you that Trump will use that as proof that Obama started the pandemic just to make Trump look bad. The projected progression is just eerily too similar to reality like it was all planned out.
Masks can have one or two purposes:
- Surgical masks can prevent exhaling of droplets back into the atmosphere.
- Respirators e.g. N95 or FPP2/3 masks, can prevent both exhaling of droplets back into the atmosphere and inhalation of droplets.
You can limit the spread of infection by asking the entire population to wear surgical masks, which would capture the droplets as the individual exhales because this is what they were designed to do (see wiki):
Absolutely no one disputes this. The problem in the UK, US and other European countries is that the N95 masks or equivalent as well as the surgical masks are in short supply. So you can't roll them out to the general public - they must be given to health professionals first. Everyone agrees with this point.
You then find yourself in a situation where people are advocating for home made masks, which haven't been tested and no one knows for sure how effective they are in the real world. You could say "well feck it, I'll wear it anyway" which is certainly your right. But there are issues that have been raised in the thread already about using masks for both of the properly designed masks and home made masks. These issues should be recognised by any individual who wishes to wear a mask. They aren't there to say "no", but just serve more as a warning so you don't suddenly have a false sense of security.
0.66% is worse than I thought. I think the best data we have are those from Iceland (0.3%) * and from Diamond Princess (1.5%). Iceland has the highest per capita testing, and they have done an almost religious contact tracing, so their data should be very good. The main problem is that there are just a bit more than 1k infected, and only 4 deaths, so there should be more needed data to know the truth. The Diamond Princess has also good data (for sure everyone who had the virus got diagnosed), but the distribution is very skewed (with much more 70+ people being than in the world, and much less 40- people than in the world, and those 0-10y.o. (who have the highest probability of surviving) being almost absent.
I think we won't know the true mortality rate for a while (and a lot depends on how well the medical system is working), but I wouldn't be surprised if it is lower than 0.5% (heck, it could be even lower than Iceland's considering that even with large testings, there are people who will be missed). However, 0.3% (or even if we go as low as flu, 0.1% which is extremely optimistic) is still extremely serious considering how much more contagious this virus is compared to influenza viruses that attack humans. And if it is anything like SARS, it will leave some survivors with lifelong consequences and make their remaining part of their lives miserable.
* There are 12 people in serious/critical stage, so they may still die, and increase the fatality rate. At worst case, it can go to 1.1%, though that is extremely pessimistic. There are also some other people who are not yet in serious/critical stage, but can reach that stage (and consequently death) in the future. Still, I would like to think that the true mortality rate is no higher than 0.5%, and hopefully only half as much.
Mild case, probably got infection from touching infected surface. Viral load is the reason for more serious infections. The more virus that first infects the host, the more serious the illness. It overwhelms the immune system. That's why Doctors and nurses are losing their lives as they get more exposure.
Hope this guy is right.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ex...-end-date-infections-deaths-boris-johnson/amp
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ex...-end-date-infections-deaths-boris-johnson/amp
I don't think the bolded part is true at all to be honest. I'm sure we've all heard and read lots of people arguing 'masks don't really work', who perhaps haven't considered the first purpose of a mask that you outline. For example, people in this thread have been downplaying the role played by masks in South Korea's ability to contain the spread of the virus. If the bolded point were undisputed knowledge then that wouldn't be the case.
But my experience in China is also that they don't have a mask wearing culture. I always look like the odd one out when wearing my mask on heavy polluted days.
This time round, I think it was simply the government mandating that they wear mask when out of their homes
Surgical masks are designed to catch droplets you exhale. If everyone wore them, then you could in theory limit (not eliminate but limit or reduce) the spread. The issue is that it isn't practical for the reasons I then outlined as well as other issues which have already been discussed quite a bit now. These include not wearing the mask properly, not taking them off properly, wearing them for too long etc.
The downplaying of the role of the masks by others is not to say the masks were completely ineffective but rather that it is a combination of things that prevents the spread, not just the masks alone.
Sadly the family also lost their father a few months ago due to cancer.
There was a gofund that raised £70k, I think it’s not taking any more donations. Hopefully they open it up again.
And presymptomatic
In case you are interested in what happens when a droplet impacts on a dry surface, from the review by Yarin, there are several different outcomes, distinguished by one row each (where each row goes from left to right):
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Thanks for the info. Imho with home made masks, even a 50% drop of droplets when exhaling, it's still much better than none. I think we all should do our part as much as we can.
Obama’s administration didn’t do anything to prevent any pandemic and before him the Bush’s and Clinton the same, since the cold war was over United States and allies just sat on top of their hands and today besides SK, and Japan none were prepared for this. 3M largest factory is in China and is not allowed to sale anything to US and I’m sure a few european countries are in the same boat, we learned a very important lesson ...we cannot let our industries outsource everything to another country. This pandemic could be our future salvation in case of a virus that spreads like this one but with a mortality of ebola we should be prepared then...I hope.
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The way i see it. It's better than none. Just dont take it as 100 percent safe.
But you know letting commoners with common sense is never gonna work.
It's not just about commoner, but there's not much suitable mask available out there.
Not sure if this has been posted but it is extremely positive news.
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/anti-parasitic-drug-kills-covid-19-in-lab-c-955457
Significant reduction in 24 hrs with complete elimination in 48 hrs is extremely promising.
Another good news is coming out of China about asymptomatic cases being 80% of the cases.
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj...ampaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/anti-parasitic-drug-kills-covid-19-in-lab-c-955457
Significant reduction in 24 hrs with complete elimination in 48 hrs is extremely promising.
Another good news is coming out of China about asymptomatic cases being 80% of the cases.
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj...ampaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text
That it can move straight to human trials is potentially very important in that if there is a safe dosage that will kill Covid in humans can be known quickly. Fingers crossed.
I think those figures need to be treated with extreme caution. The majority of those people are probably not asymptomatic but pre-symptomatic when they take the test. They may then get mild or severe symptoms later. Truly asymptomatic people will, in the majority, get it and recover without knowing it and without being tested. An antigen test at a later date will be the way to confirm this, but we won't know yet.
Indeed. The tests are from 1st of April, so plenty of time for some of them to get symptoms later. If another two weeks pass and they don't get symptoms, then that is really huge news.
Snuck an Express link in there and now I feel dirty.
This paper has a horrible record of forecasting. They literally just make stuff up.
Make a list, get your essentials then get the feck back home.
People meandering back up and down the aisles pisses me off at the best of times, I wish all supermarkets were "one-way".
Wear gloves if you have them. Wear a mask if you have it. Use sanitiser when you're out if you have it. I have only one mask, I've been using it for whole of the time here in Italy. I come back from the shop, I hang it outside in the fresh air for a few hours then I bring it back in. I don't use it every day.
There's no point members of the public debating the finer points of mask-wearing, as you can't get enough to be able to throw them away every time you use them and the health staff need the best ones. Everyone I see is wearing something over their nose and mouth, be it a tatty mask or a scarf.
According to Ile-de-France president, the US allegedly hijacked their shipment by offering 3 to 4 times the fee agreed witht the chinese, the same thing allegedly happened in the Grand Est but the US denied it.
http://www.leparisien.fr/economie/c...ntercepter-des-masques-02-04-2020-8293155.php
Any chance of a separate thread for mask talk? Please?
This thread has become people going in circles for the last ten pages.
This thread has become people going in circles for the last ten pages.
Assuming there is no structural damage to the mask, can you keep reusing it without washing as long as you leave it for a certain amount of days between use, until the virus dies?
EDIT never mind, just saw @Penna's post above that answers my question
EDIT never mind, just saw @Penna's post above that answers my question
Stand 2 metres apart (more if possible) and cough into your elbow if you feel one coming on.
With what we know of novel coronavirus that should suffice. Its conjecture how much they prevent community spread. Social isolation and distancing will prevent this thing way more than mass mask-wearing will, what effect that has is variable (depends on the person, adherence, ensuring that mask itself doesn't serve as a vector and is replaced - as they have a short shelf-life)
I haven't seen many doctors in the UK talk about lack of population-level mass mask-wearing as a significant contributor to or exacerbating feature of this pandemic
With what we know of novel coronavirus that should suffice. Its conjecture how much they prevent community spread. Social isolation and distancing will prevent this thing way more than mass mask-wearing will, what effect that has is variable (depends on the person, adherence, ensuring that mask itself doesn't serve as a vector and is replaced - as they have a short shelf-life)
I haven't seen many doctors in the UK talk about lack of population-level mass mask-wearing as a significant contributor to or exacerbating feature of this pandemic
Dont trust chinese data alone. But they're in common with japan singapore south South Korea, those countries that take their government seriously.
Singapore, south korea, japan, german, countries that's well known to be efficient with their job too posting a better number.
It's just a case of making do - I wouldn't normally ever recycle a mask in that way!Assuming there is no structural damage to the mask, can you keep reusing it without washing as long as you leave it for a certain amount of days between use, until the virus dies?
EDIT never mind, just saw @Penna's post above that answers my question
Yeah, better than nothing I'm sure. I have an old one around the house in good nick which will do me for the limited times I have to venture out. I have ordered a few more from China which are probably fake but will at least offer some protection hopefully.
Am reading that Ivermectin killed 99.8% of the virus within 48 hours in the lab (not tested in humans yet). Is this something to get excited about or far too early still? Have other drugs also shown similar results in the lab?
I suspected the number of asymptotic people were quite high ever since the Valencia squad got their results back. I know they went to Milan (to play Atalanta) but still for 35% of a squad previously showing no symptoms to have it is pretty damm high!
Many things can kill the virus outside of a host. Hopefully something like this works but I'm not counting on it.