SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Revan

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These viruses are viral hemorrhagic fevers and these particular viruses are arenaviruses, most of them rely on direct contact with rodents or their feces/urine and are therefore not currently as threatening. But I imagine that you remember hantavirus for which we observed human to human transmission for the first time relatively recently.

And on the subject of coronavirus and influenza it's worth remembering that a lot of domesticated animals can carry these family of viruses. So it will happen again and most likely until the end of time, in rare occasions the virus will be a biological engineering marvel but most of the time it will be a failure because it either lacks discretion, is too lethal or fail to move to a new host.
Was it confirmed to be human-to-human (the person who died in China a week or two ago)?
 

Revan

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Interesting. I remember when I was practicing intubation they said be careful because you can crack teeth!

How serious is lung scarring? I wonder if it means even more susceptible to similar corona viruses in the furture. There seems to be a lot of thought that we are going to see more versions in the coming years.
I think there are supposed to be at least 150 animal coronaviruses. And I think that all of them are dangerous because we have next to no immunity against them, so there are good chances we will see outbreaks every decade or so. In reality, we had 3 novel coronaviruses in this century, so surely we will have more (though hopefully we will be better prepared and contain them like we did with SARS and MERS).
 

Arruda

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Interesting. I remember when I was practicing intubation they said be careful because you can crack teeth!

How serious is lung scarring? I wonder if it means even more susceptible to similar corona viruses in the furture. There seems to be a lot of thought that we are going to see more versions in the coming years.
It's pretty damn serious, though there is a difference between diseases like silicosis (coal miners get it), idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis or sarcoidosis (unknown causes) which affect the entire lungs, and fibrosis resulting from infection which is usually localized to the areas that were more seriously hit. It happens a lot in tuberculosis, and I think to some extent in viral pneumonias. A small area of fibrosis will not be noticeable from a functional point of view.
 

Dancfc

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I think there are supposed to be at least 150 animal coronaviruses. And I think that all of them are dangerous because we have next to no immunity against them, so there are good chances we will see outbreaks every decade or so. In reality, we had 3 novel coronaviruses in this century, so surely we will have more (though hopefully we will be better prepared and contain them like we did with SARS and MERS).
I think I read few weeks back they were hard at work with a vaccine for SARS but stopped as soon as the virus basically fell of the face of earth.

I can't see them making that same mistake again even if this one makes a unlikely sudden disapperance.
 

JPRouve

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Was it confirmed to be human-to-human (the person who died in China a week or two ago)?
I don't know about that one but I don't think so. The first recorded human to human transmission was in the 2000s in the Andes I believe. If I'm not mistaken it's the only one that you can get from someone with the illness.
 

fergieisold

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Hey. You know I'm always happy to participate.

I don't really know how to answer in very specific terms for Covid-19, but I've read a study suggesting thata long stay in an ICU unit, even upon "full" recovery, may have an impact on longer term health outcomes of the person (increased risk of mortality from other causes, etc) and this risk may be comparatively worse the younger and healthier the person was before critical care.

As for "permanent damage" per se, I presume strong pneumonias, like any other inflammation, can carry a risk of causing fibrosis (scarring) and loss of function of normal pulmonary tissue, but I don't think this is very common.

ICU means a lot of other invasive procedures, and they all carry some risk. I think the most extreme form of critical care is when intubation/ventilation is no longer enough to maintain oxygenation, and your blood needs to be pumped out of the body for oxygenation (a lot more complex than mere dialysis). This is called extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and not all critical care units have the means/personnel to do this.

All this to say that the procedures are so intensive, and life is sustained in such artificial ways, that some (how many?) people with "full recoveries" won't be in perfect condition, i.e., their health isn't reset to a pre-disease level.

Remember I'm not a clinician, so some stuff above may be a bit off the mark, it's just a general impression. Am happy to be corrected by anyone who understands more of this.
So is this something being deployed in the COVID battle do you know? Or something that's maybe done for the young ones with a better chance?
 

Carolina Red

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I'm surprised and terrified that people are so willing to give up their essential freedoms because they're a little scared. If someone would have asked me in January how deadly a pandemic would have to be for people to be as willing as they currently collectively are to give up their freedoms I'd have said at least 10x more deadly overall and around 50x more deadly for those under 60.

As someone concerned about the progressive erosion of civil liberties (which is always under the guise of keeping the populace safety) the enthusiasm with which we're gifted our basic rights to government for a bit of purported safety is far more concerning that the virus itself. I've no doubt future governments will look at how quickly we were willing to sacrifice these freedoms and use it as a blueprint.

Literally in this thread less than 48 hours ago a video was posted of someone alone on a park bench in a communal space with no-one within 50 metres of them with close to zero chance for infecting anyone else. Several police officers who were not themselves following the guidelines they were enforcing arrested them without being able to quote the legislation for which they were relying. If that in and of itself wasn't frightening enough, rather than protests regarding a clear abuse of police powers, we have people criticising that the person even had the right to sit on the bench in the first place. We've joyfully sleepwalked into 1984.
Oh ffs - are you serious with this shit?
 

Sassy Colin

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So France, which I had the impression had introduced severe, and certainly more restrictive than the UK, lockdown measures early on in the country's cycle, now seems to be suffering as bad as anyone. 1,417 reported lost their fight in the last 24 hours :(

They had included the figures from care homes a few days ago, which gave an anomulous figure, perhaps this is also that effect being included?
 

fergieisold

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I'm surprised and terrified that people are so willing to give up their essential freedoms because they're a little scared. If someone would have asked me in January how deadly a pandemic would have to be for people to be as willing as they currently collectively are to give up their freedoms I'd have said at least 10x more deadly overall and around 50x more deadly for those under 60.

As someone concerned about the progressive erosion of civil liberties (which is always under the guise of keeping the populace safety) the enthusiasm with which we're gifted our basic rights to government for a bit of purported safety is far more concerning that the virus itself. I've no doubt future governments will look at how quickly we were willing to sacrifice these freedoms and use it as a blueprint.

Literally in this thread less than 48 hours ago a video was posted of someone alone on a park bench in a communal space with no-one within 50 metres of them with close to zero chance for infecting anyone else. Several police officers who were not themselves following the guidelines they were enforcing arrested them without being able to quote the legislation for which they were relying. If that in and of itself wasn't frightening enough, rather than protests regarding a clear abuse of police powers, we have people criticising that the person even had the right to sit on the bench in the first place. We've joyfully sleepwalked into 1984.
But...there is no erosion of civil liberties when you actually take a minute to sit back and think for a moment. What's happened is a temporary measure to protect you, not some crackpot tinfoil hat shit to take your freedom away from you.
 

Penna

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Are you in the UK, finneh? If so, what freedoms have you really given up? You can go to the shops and go out and about a bit. You can order takeaway food, sit at home, watch TV, have a drink. You've not had your front door welded shut.

When things are under control, everything will be relaxed, people can go out anywhere they want, they can go back to work, go out to the pub, to restaurants, to see their friends and family. I'm thinking of the last world war - people lived under enormous restrictions for years and years, million of ordinary men were sent to fight. And then it all went back to normal.
 

JMack1234

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I saw someone sitting down on a bench today.

Our society is collapsing around us.
 

Carolina Red

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Your faith in society is misplaced.

If the police allow that one person to sit on a bench 50m from anyone else without telling them to beat it, another person will see them and think "Hey, I can sit on that bench 50m away from anyone else, too" or "Why can;t I go walk the wilderness trails, too?" And the next person will think the same. Humans are inherently selfish. That's not a criticism but when we are all asked to stay home as much as possible we will view anyone who is not doing that with envy and ask ourselves why am I not doing this as well. Then a herd mentality takes over and you get the scenes of crowds of people not maintaining a 2m distance from each other, etc and the resultant spike in infections and hospitalizations a few days later. And this continues longer than it needs to because some people can't do what is asked of them.
Exactly.

In South Carolina they left access to lakes open and we had people taking boats out to islands and sandbars in the middle of lakes and throwing fecking parties.
 

Sassy Colin

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Are you in the UK, finneh? If so, what freedoms have you really given up? You can go to the shops and go out and about a bit. You can order takeaway food, sit at home, watch TV, have a drink. You've not had your front door welded shut.

When things are under control, everything will be relaxed, people can go out anywhere they want, they can go back to work, go out to the pub, to restaurants, to see their friends and family. I'm thinking of the last world war - people lived under enormous restrictions for years and years, million of ordinary men were sent to fight. And then it all went back to normal.
How do the restrictions in Italy compare to the UK?
 

LazyRed-Ninja

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Are you in the UK, finneh? If so, what freedoms have you really given up? You can go to the shops and go out and about a bit. You can order takeaway food, sit at home, watch TV, have a drink. You've not had your front door welded shut.

When things are under control, everything will be relaxed, people can go out anywhere they want, they can go back to work, go out to the pub, to restaurants, to see their friends and family. I'm thinking of the last world war - people lived under enormous restrictions for years and years, million of ordinary men were sent to fight. And then it all went back to normal.
Are you saying its going to take years before things are back to normal?

Also, the Corona virus is allegedly something that will return seasonly, so after these restrictions, it’s not going to be the same exact same (in my opinion). They are already talking about an app that is being developed for the EU, which will track people and monitor wether you come into contact with a potential risk individual by using location information from your smartphone. This on its turn becomes a privacy issue.

At this moments many things are uncertain, one thing that is for certain, is that there will be a ‘new normal’, wether that will be normal is another question to judge when its here.
 

JMack1234

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Are you in the UK, finneh? If so, what freedoms have you really given up? You can go to the shops and go out and about a bit. You can order takeaway food, sit at home, watch TV, have a drink. You've not had your front door welded shut.

When things are under control, everything will be relaxed, people can go out anywhere they want, they can go back to work, go out to the pub, to restaurants, to see their friends and family. I'm thinking of the last world war - people lived under enormous restrictions for years and years, million of ordinary men were sent to fight. And then it all went back to normal.
The freedom to leave your house and see your friends. Quite a biggy.
 

golden_blunder

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Quite the opposite. I believe that if you provide people with the statistics and explain the problem clearly, the vast majority will comply without force or impinging on their rights.

Arresting people for sitting on a bench 50m from the nearest person, spying on people walking alone with drones and/or forcing people into poverty (closing businesses that have taken lifetimes to build) is something different entirely.

I have great faith in society, just not in government.
You have more faith in society than me. Experience has shown me that a small number of people will always ruin it for the majority. Time will tell if lockdowns are successful
 

Sassy Colin

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The freedom to leave your house and see your friends. Quite a biggy.
I can leave my house, although I don't like to unless I really need to. I have also seen my friends via Zoom. Whilst I would really like to be able to meet up with my friends in person and go down the pub or for a meal, I'd quite like my mates to still be around when all this is over.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Quite the opposite. I believe that if you provide people with the statistics and explain the problem clearly, the vast majority will comply without force or impinging on their rights.

Arresting people for sitting on a bench 50m from the nearest person, spying on people walking alone with drones and/or forcing people into poverty (closing businesses that have taken lifetimes to build) is something different entirely.

I have great faith in society, just not in government.
To be clear, what businesses do you think should have been allowed remain open but were forced to close by the government?

Pubs? restaurants? clothes shops?

Be specific.
 

Buster15

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Well give me your plan for how to make China do what we want and I'll see how I feel about it.
It is not up to me to devise such a plan.
It is up to the world leaders to decide what should be done.

From my perspective, an investigation should be carried out to conclusively determine the precise cause and whether China was complicit.

In that eventuality, was China also at fault in hiding information from the WHO.

Subject to that, China should be taken to the International Court's and each country would make their case for damages.

It cannot be acceptable for China, subject to being at fault to not have to pay for the damages caused.

In the first instance, they should contribute to the funeral costs of those who died as a result of this virus.
 

Pexbo

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I can leave my house, although I don't like to unless I really need to. I have also seen my friends via Zoom. Whilst I would really like to be able to meet up with my friends in person and go down the pub or for a meal, I'd quite like my mates to still be around when all this is over.
Well said.
 

Drawfull

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I can leave my house, although I don't like to unless I really need to. I have also seen my friends via Zoom. Whilst I would really like to be able to meet up with my friends in person and go down the pub or for a meal, I'd quite like my mates to still be around when all this is over.
Bold is where we all should be. I have outside space so I've been pretty hardcore about not seeing anyone / going out. Only interaction has been food and essentials deliveries. Unfortunately, some people's social lives are literally rammed and they can't cope.
 

Dr. Dwayne

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It is not up to me to devise such a plan.
It is up to the world leaders to decide what should be done.

From my perspective, an investigation should be carried out to conclusively determine the precise cause and whether China was complicit.

In that eventuality, was China also at fault in hiding information from the WHO.

Subject to that, China should be taken to the International Court's and each country would make their case for damages.

It cannot be acceptable for China, subject to being at fault to not have to pay for the damages caused.

In the first instance, they should contribute to the funeral costs of those who died as a result of this virus.
And what did your government do to protect you when everyone seemingly knew this was coming out of China and was apparently rather dangerous?

They did nothing.
 

LazyRed-Ninja

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Yeah, that quote doesn't mean what you think it means.
Yeah, i dont think you know what i think that quote means.. :)

Surely, a conflict in regards to human rights (such as privacy) and the surveillance machine of big tech companies by default (because of their business model) isnt a new subject is it?
 

sullydnl

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Fears about the erosion of freedoms and civil liberties are generally very legitimate. It's therefore a shame that those who bring up these fears are so often unbearably tiresome.

It's one thing to point out that a lot of the restrictions we are currently experiencing would in normal times be deemed massively excessive and that we should be wary of the potential for them to be extended past the point where they are necessary.

It's another to woefully decry the loss of those liberties in the middle of the pandemic, pointing to the sort of restrictions that anyone with even an ounce of common sense or perspective would expect to be curtailed as a basic public health measure. It's such an unbelievably callow argument to make at a point when there are so many more pressing issues at stake.
 

4bars

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The ones that think that their liberties are taken, could organize a massive demostration protesting to the government. All well packed and together, shoulder against shoulder and very sweaty

Lets see how it ends
 

Buster15

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Let me give you a counter argument where we should be thanking China. For a Virus to threaten our entire species it would have to become endemic (everyone carrying it) and then mutate some lethal symptoms in a rapid progression that medical communities can't counter in time.

If a virus gets out and starts making people ill / developing a range of symptoms early then there is more chance it can be detected early, people can take precautions to avoid infection and the virus will eventually run out of steam and either be starved of new infections or inadvertently kill all it's hosts before it can infect everyone.

So you could say that by creating a "Hot house" environment China has exposed the corona virus early in it's evolution and brought it to the world's attention, saving us from a potential extinction level event by creating a horrible pandemic early on in the diseases progression.

It's a natural human response to seek blame, particularly when you hear some of the awful stories now coming out, but ultimately it will not help us to prepare for the next one.

We could not have known for sure it was a respiratory based illness, so I've no problem with a shortage of specialist disease specific equipment like ventilators in this case - that is just the luck of the draw. However, whatever the nature of the next pandemic we face, we can be absolutely sure that we need to have massive stockpiles of high level PPE available to protect Medical and Care staff from infected patients, whatever the nature of the infection, whether airborne, waterborne or through blood / fluid transfer.
Hmm. We should be thanking China....

I wonder if the families of the huge number of dead will be quite as charitable as you.

I wonder if the huge number of people who will loose their jobs, or those who will ultimately pay the financial price for damage to the global economies would want to thank China.

We should use rigorous Risk Management techniques rather than tens of thousands of dead in order to prepare for such a pandemic.
 

LazyRed-Ninja

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The ones that think that their liberties are taken, could organize a massive demostration protesting to the government. All well packed and together, shoulder against shoulder and very sweaty

Lets see how it ends
Yes... its a democracy in the EU, so they will only use rubber bullets and tear gas against demonstrations..
 

4bars

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Yes... its a democracy in the EU, so they will only use rubber bullets and tear gas against demonstrations..
And without them sure you will go out with that pandemic...and bring your elderly with you too. All for freedom
 

Buster15

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And what did your government do to protect you when everyone seemingly knew this was coming out of China and was apparently rather dangerous?

They did nothing.
What has that got to do with the post.
The UK government says that it was talking action based upon the scientific advice.
 

Sarni

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How long do you think mass gatherings will be banned for after lockdown is lifted? Personally I feel additional 3 months is minimum but most likely until the end of year for 100+ people events.