SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[VidaRed]

https://www.msn.com/en-za/health/co...-plots-re-opening/ar-BB12LcYF?ocid=spartandhp

So China was not cooking the books then.

I wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers are 10 times more.

 

[sun_tzu]

The horses are way out of the barn now. If only they had taken it seriously early back in January and then executed a containment strategy and their measures instead of shaking hands.

So there are only two solutions left:

1) Herd immunity
2) Hyper containment -- you test every single person once every three weeks or a month then isolate or hospitalise them if required.

Both are unrealistic due to costs.

Natural thing left is mitigation. I can only see a whack a mole scenario going forward till past 2021 or early 2022. The vaccine ain't expected to be ready till Mid-2021. But then there is the issue of supplies and the distribution of the vaccine. Not everyone can get vaccinated all the same time. It will be rolled out gradually.

I also wonder if by the time a vaccine is developed if heard immunity isn't already naturally achieved?

Better theraputic medicine to reduce symptoms and get better clinical outcomes probably is also a pretty key part of it as well I guess... Perhaps an existing drug will be shown to have some benefit... If not then I guess development and clinical trials puts it on the same timeline as a vaccine.

 

[Revan]

https://www.msn.com/en-za/health/co...-plots-re-opening/ar-BB12LcYF?ocid=spartandhp

So China was not cooking the books then.

China lying? No way, I cannot believe it.

 

[Snafu17]

There's been some buzz about Remdesivir but there's apparently no control group in that trial and the company performing it is supposed to be somewhat shady.

 

[Bestie07]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16...uggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

It's fair to be cautiousy optimistic at this point.

 

[sun_tzu]

I wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers are 10 times more.

Based on?

I mean uk Is under reporting by 50% apparently due to not reporting care home figure

Assuming your ten times guess is based on more than a racial stereotype please present some credible data

 

[Josep Dowling]

They can do as they wish and I am free to point out how silly it is. It’s important to highlight because tokenism is frequently offered up in place of affirmative action which is just infuriating.

There is a lot of anti-Conservative sentiment because they’re a dreadful rabble and in a healthy democracy, governments should be scrutinised and held to account. The action of governments across the globe is a key element of the Covid-19 debate.

Many lack objectivity when criticising the government. There is a clear hatred of the tories by some and with that it’s just easy to blame the government than look at the general supply issues amongst many other issues. I have never voted conservative but I stand by a labour government would be just as ‘useless’ in this scenario and there would similar quip remarks about having a labour government in this situation.

As for the tories underfunding the NHS I actually work with GP practice finance and Primary Care is not underfunded at all. The biggest issue is how it’s spent or the shear number of pointless bodies that all fight for their own funding, then simply waste their budget each year so it isn’t reduced in the next. Plus, and I only speak of my own experience, GP who own practices are some of the greediest people I have had to work with when it comes to money. Many would rather take home more money than actually ensure their practice can run properly. But that doesn’t fit the narrative of Doctors being the most caring in society. Some of the things I have seen over the years would shock the general public.

 

[fergosaurus]

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[Rajma]

Seems like in Lithuania we're going hard trying to eliminate this virus totally; lots of testing, contact tracing, strong measures (compulsory masks in the public), penalties (500 EUR) for groups of more than two people (except for families). Also, during Easter break internally the movement was restricted unless you had a property/good reason to move around towns/cities. Also, we're isolating towns where outbreaks picking up the pace as well. For the past 10 days we consistently had between 10-30 new cases daily and that's with increased testing load (at the moment we've done 20k tests per 1M of population). Hopefully, these extreme means will yield the desired results.

 

[RobinLFC]

I also wonder if by the time a vaccine is developed if heard immunity isn't already naturally achieved?

I doubt it - currently only .15% and .30% of the population in the UK and Belgium respectively has tested positive, for example. That's probably a big underestimation but still it would only be around 1% of the population for most countries, I'd assume. Even Italy and Spain hover around 0.3% and 0.4% of their population confirmed as positive.

We need a lot more for herd immunity, and sadly the tactic goes with a lot of risk for another big outbreak, accompanied with a lot more risks for risk groups.

 

[Wibble]

I also wonder if by the time a vaccine is developed if heard immunity isn't already naturally achieved?

Better theraputic medicine to reduce symptoms and get better clinical outcomes probably is also a pretty key part of it as well I guess... Perhaps an existing drug will be shown to have some benefit... If not then I guess development and clinical trials puts it on the same timeline as a vaccine.

Not without tens of millons of dead.

Lets say we need 60% infected for herd immunity (more like 85% with the R0 we think may be likley) and a death rate of of 0.25% (also likely an underestimate) then that is over 11 million dead. With 85% and 1% that would be nearly 64 million dead.

 

[Penna]

Men are spraying disinfectant on the main road here. I have no idea how they think that's going to help anything, it's not as if anyone touches it with their bare hands!

 

[Wumminator]

Seems like in Lithuania we're going hard trying to eliminate this virus totally; lots of testing, contact tracing, strong measures (compulsory masks in the public), penalties (500 EUR) for groups of more than two people (except for families). Also, during Easter break internally the movement was restricted unless you had a property/good reason to move around towns/cities. Also, we're isolating towns where outbreaks picking up the pace as well. For the past 10 days we consistently had between 10-30 new cases daily and that's with increased testing load (at the moment we've done 20k tests per 1M of population). Hopefully, these extreme means will yield the desired results.

Can I just say how wonderful the Caf has been for this whole thing. Having so many European posters updating like this is genuinely riveting reading. People like @Regulus Arcturus Black might get stick, but it's been fascinating to see how countries are handling this.

An absolute legend of the local community died of Corona by me yesterday. Anyone from the Saddleworth area of Oldham will know who I am talking about. As more and more people I know are dying from this disease, this thread helps me understand what is happening in the world a little better.

 

[Wumminator]

Men are spraying disinfectant on the main road here. I have no idea how they think that's going to help anything, it's not as if anyone touches it with their bare hands!

I read somewhere that soles of shoes can have a massive impact on spreading different versions of a virus. If people sneeze or cough when walking near a road and then it lands on the road, people can then pick it up off the bottom of their shoe. I'm not saying that is what is happening here, but you can sort of see the logic.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Bollocks. Junior Doctors would rather PPE and a payrise rather than a measly clap by some narcissistic Tory wanker.

Oh wow! You’ve made me see the error of my ways. You’re right. I was absolutely suggesting that if you clap, you are doing so to make it clear NHS workers don’t need more PPE and that the Tory government is fully endorsed by all.

Take your hand off it.

You’re the fella that could see your star player score an overhead kick from 25 yards in the dying seconds to win a CL final, then walk out before the trophy is presented as he still hasn’t signed a new contract. While also complaining he earns too much already. Loudly. In the car. On your own. Because talksport won’t take your calls anymore.

Get out of your own way, you’ll be happier for it.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I also wonder if by the time a vaccine is developed if heard immunity isn't already naturally achieved?

Better theraputic medicine to reduce symptoms and get better clinical outcomes probably is also a pretty key part of it as well I guess... Perhaps an existing drug will be shown to have some benefit... If not then I guess development and clinical trials puts it on the same timeline as a vaccine.

Development timelines for medicines usually a fraction of timeline for vaccines. Mind you, development timeline for vaccines usually 8 or 9 years.

 

[Wibble]

Men are spraying disinfectant on the main road here. I have no idea how they think that's going to help anything, it's not as if anyone touches it with their bare hands!

Is road licking a thing?

 

[SAred]

I wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers are 10 times more.

And yet some people actually believe that China where all telling the truth and their death rate was lower than Belgium's.

 

[11101]

Men are spraying disinfectant on the main road here. I have no idea how they think that's going to help anything, it's not as if anyone touches it with their bare hands!

That's been going on weekly here. The guy actually doing the spraying looks so disinterested at this point though, he barely covers half the road anymore.

 

[RobinLFC]

And yet some people actually believe that China where all telling the truth and their death rate was lower than Belgium's.

To be fair to them, that'll also happen for the UK if you're not counting nursing home deaths at the moment (which Belgium are all including, regardless of confirmed corona tests, hence the high number of deaths). It seems that it's rather an addition of deaths based on late reporting (or a similar valid explanation) than an admission of guilt from their side.

Doesn't mean their numbers aren't skewed in any case though, obviously. But they must've thought they got it really under control otherwise they wouldn't have lifted the Wuhan lockdown, I'd imagine.

 

[Feed Me]

Many lack objectivity when criticising the government. There is a clear hatred of the tories by some and with that it’s just easy to blame the government than look at the general supply issues amongst many other issues. I have never voted conservative but I stand by a labour government would be just as ‘useless’ in this scenario and there would similar quip remarks about having a labour government in this situation.

As for the tories underfunding the NHS I actually work with GP practice finance and Primary Care is not underfunded at all. The biggest issue is how it’s spent or the shear number of pointless bodies that all fight for their own funding, then simply waste their budget each year so it isn’t reduced in the next. Plus, and I only speak of my own experience, GP who own practices are some of the greediest people I have had to work with when it comes to money. Many would rather take home more money than actually ensure their practice can run properly. But that doesn’t fit the narrative of Doctors being the most caring in society. Some of the things I have seen over the years would shock the general public.

It’s hard to be objective when lives are destroyed by austerity. I don’t doubt your point about NHS funds being used inefficiently. But there is a clear trend towards serious underfunding of frontline public services in the UK.

 

[sglowrider]

I also wonder if by the time a vaccine is developed if heard immunity isn't already naturally achieved?

Better theraputic medicine to reduce symptoms and get better clinical outcomes probably is also a pretty key part of it as well I guess... Perhaps an existing drug will be shown to have some benefit... If not then I guess development and clinical trials puts it on the same timeline as a vaccine.

The elephant in the room are the asymptomatic and the pre-symptomatics. Thats why the monthly testing can address that. 18 months is a lifetime under the correct condition.

But the longer this drags on, the more it erodes the NHS' capacity. It's already over-capacity as it is and is just like Italy -- its running on fumes and thus the extraordinary high fatality rates. How many more months before its completely broken --- when a massive portion of its staff is out of commission due to being infected (from lack of PPEs), infra is completely choked.
And this is not to mention the under-reported cases/deaths at the care homes.

 

[sglowrider]

And yet some people actually believe that China where all telling the truth and their death rate was lower than Belgium's.

I suspect every country are under-reporting. When you don't test at the start, you just don't have a baseline to start your containment strategy. Then you are flying blind.

If you think China is bad, try the UK, US. They denied the issue to start with then get got caught for looking stupid -- and have made it into a political issue as well as a healthcare issue.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

https://www.msn.com/en-za/health/co...-plots-re-opening/ar-BB12LcYF?ocid=spartandhp

So China was not cooking the books then.

Deaths are most likely being under-reported in every country. Which has grave implications for mortality.

We’ve always assumed we were working off a falsely low denominator when calculating CFR because of mild/asymptomatic cases not being picked up. However if the numerator is higher than we thought it will have a bigger impact on the CFR than a bump in the denominator numbers. I would say it’s highly unlikely we’ll end up with the <1% CFR that keeps getting talked about. Could even end up 2%+.

 

[11101]

It’s hard to be objective when lives are destroyed by austerity. I don’t doubt your point about NHS funds being used inefficiently. But there is a clear trend towards serious underfunding of frontline public services in the UK.

Nobody is ever happy with their government. Before austerity it was the rich getting richer and unjustified wars. It will be something else for whoever replaces this one. The NHS budget per capita is down slightly post recession, after being massively and unsustainably pumped up by Blair/Brown, but it's still far higher than at any other point in the past.

I find it quite odd how the NHS is being turned into some named, living, breathing thing that we must protect like a member of our own families. It's being used to shut down any objective discussion about it. It's a public health service, lots of countries have them, but i've never seen any other personified in this way.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

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Didn't take long to reach peak moron with this clapping lark I see. Might as well book it in at the O2 for next Thursday.

 

[Fiskey]

Nobody is ever happy with their government. Before austerity it was the rich getting richer and unjustified wars. It will be something else for whoever replaces this one. The NHS budget per capita is down slightly post recession, after being massively and unsustainably pumped up by Blair/Brown, but it's still far higher than at any other point in the past.

I find it quite odd how the NHS is being turned into some named, living, breathing thing that we must protect like a member of our own families. It's being used to shut down any objective discussion about it. It's a public health service, lots of countries have them, but i've never seen any other personified in this way.

It's a funny aspect of the British character but I quite like it.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

I always look at the little battles, few weeks ago all we had to look for was Italy not rising as badly as usual but now we are starting to see exit plans around us and not to mention Sweden's bold move not as of yet backfiring (touch wood).

I'm very confident some restrictions will be lifted in three weeks here (if nothing else because they have to be or the economy collapses) and If the rumoured traffic light plan is legit we will be able to visit freinds and family again which I can't wait to do.

Same here, Denmark also planning to release lockdown measures over the next couple of weeks. Great to hear.

We're living out an episode of Black Mirror and this just confirms it.

Yeah it's very, very surreal. Honestly, if people are on the streets singing Happy Birthday to the Queen next week......we have officially sleepwalked into a satirical comedy.

I suspect every country are under-reporting. When you don't test at the start, you just don't have a baseline to start your containment strategy. Then you are flying blind.

If you think China is bad, try the UK, US. They denied the issue to start with then get got caught for looking stupid -- and have made it into a political issue as well as a healthcare issue.

Yeah every country is underselling the death toll and not always deliberately. I think we can safely say that the numbers worldwide are likely to be maybe even triple the figure being quoted at present.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Continuing good news from the Faroe Islands. No new cases for 10 days. 12% of population tested.

184 total cases,
171 recovered,
34 remain in quarantine,
0 in hospital,
0 dead.

Only 9 of the infected were over 70 years old.

 

[Revaulx]

Can I just say how wonderful the Caf has been for this whole thing. Having so many European posters updating like this is genuinely riveting reading. People like @Regulus Arcturus Black might get stick, but it's been fascinating to see how countries are handling this.

Very much this!

Though it’s also made it easy to identify the posters who are determined to be proved right ahead of anything else.

An absolute legend of the local community died of Corona by me yesterday. Anyone from the Saddleworth area of Oldham will know who I am talking about. As more and more people I know are dying from this disease, this thread helps me understand what is happening in the world a little better.

Didn’t know you were local. Poor bloke was only five years older than me...

 

[Feed Me]

Nobody is ever happy with their government. Before austerity it was the rich getting richer and unjustified wars. It will be something else for whoever replaces this one. The NHS budget per capita is down slightly post recession, after being massively and unsustainably pumped up by Blair/Brown, but it's still far higher than at any other point in the past.

I find it quite odd how the NHS is being turned into some named, living, breathing thing that we must protect like a member of our own families. It's being used to shut down any objective discussion about it. It's a public health service, lots of countries have them, but i've never seen any other personified in this way.

I find your first statement depressing. So are we to just sit here and say nothing? I feel as though this is why we see so much apathy from the public towards political events, because it’s just accepted as a given that governments are underwhelming. Well fecking do something about it then. It is still maddening to think about all the Remainers who grumble about the Brexit result, but when you look at the turnout figures it soon becomes clear – they didn’t turn out.

I agree with your second paragraph wholeheartedly. It’s the same reason someone like me ridiculing the ‘Clap for the NHS’ is treated sacrilegiously. Irrespective of the emotional aspect of the debate, it’s clear that our health service is underfunded and under resourced though – various first hand accounts in the current climate testify to this point.

 

[Revaulx]

It’s hard to be objective when lives are destroyed by austerity. I don’t doubt your point about NHS funds being used inefficiently. But there is a clear trend towards serious underfunding of frontline public services in the UK.

Worth remembering that during the 72 year lifetime of the NHS, only 27 have been under a Labour government. So that’s 45 years under the Tories. It’s only really in the last ten years of Tory rule that there’s been serious ideological challenge to the NHS ethos.

Also that the cash for setting it up in the first place came from the US in the form of Marshall Aid. The rest of the Marshall money was thrown away in a vain attempt to prop up what was left of the British Empire.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

I find your first statement depressing. So are we to just sit here and say nothing? I feel as though this is why we see so much apathy from the public towards political events, because it’s just accepted as a given that governments are underwhelming. Well fecking do something about it then. It is still maddening to think about all the Remainers who grumble about the Brexit result, but when you look at the turnout figures it soon becomes clear – they didn’t turn out.

I agree with your second paragraph wholeheartedly. It’s the same reason someone like me ridiculing the ‘Clap for the NHS’ is treated sacrilegiously. Irrespective of the emotional aspect of the debate, it’s clear that our health service is underfunded and under resourced though – various first hand accounts in the current climate testify to this point.

Lots of truth in this. The NHS deserve massive respect but why should WE be the ones showing them it when the government has treated them with nothing but disdain for donkeys years? Why is the onus on US? Why is a 99yr old bloke doing laps of his garden seen as the bastion of supporting our NHS when the government can't even supply these heroes with the most basic protective equipment to do their job? It's like being in an episode of some satirical dark comedy show. It's almost bordering on the ludicrous.

It infuriates me that so many people aren't even questioning this. It's really indicative of the lobotomised nature of much of our society to be honest.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

I find it quite odd how the NHS is being turned into some named, living, breathing thing that we must protect like a member of our own families. It's being used to shut down any objective discussion about it. It's a public health service, lots of countries have them, but i've never seen any other personified in this way.

Noticed that too. People always refer to "our NHS" as if it's a close friend. It's a little odd to personify a public service in that way. Germany's system doesn't even have a name and it's partly private which may have worked to our advantage in this crisis.

In other news, Germany's infection rate is now down to 0.7.

 

[VP89]

Lots of truth in this. The NHS deserve massive respect but why should WE be the ones showing them it when the government has treated them with nothing but disdain for donkeys years? Why is the onus on US? Why is a 99yr old bloke doing laps of his garden seen as the bastion of supporting our NHS when the government can't even supply these heroes with the most basic protective equipment to do their job? It's like being in an episode of some satirical dark comedy show. It's almost bordering on the ludicrous.

It infuriates me that so many people aren't even questioning this. It's really indicative of the lobotomised nature of much of our society to be honest.

Welcome to the Tory government, and I wouldn't be surprised if they used the economic hit as a reason to continue underfunding and underpaying the NHS.

 

[Feed Me]

Lots of truth in this. The NHS deserve massive respect but why should WE be the ones showing them it when the government has treated them with nothing but disdain for donkeys years? Why is the onus on US? Why is a 99yr old bloke doing laps of his garden seen as the bastion of supporting our NHS when the government can't even supply these heroes with the most basic protective equipment to do their job? It's like being in an episode of some satirical dark comedy show. It's almost bordering on the ludicrous.

It infuriates me that so many people aren't even questioning this. It's really indicative of the lobotomised nature of much of our society to be honest.

Bang on. You have worded this better than me. Thank you.

 

[Striker10]

I think we need to be more pro active in discussions but I also think we have to remember government is meant to represent the people not dictate to it. Our response should have come from the people who should be able to scream shut the border.... One reason I wanted Brexit, was border control. Now we don't have it but I think keep it simple. If you close the borders, there's no pandemic. It's as simple as that and we as a nation could be helping ourselves and other nations. We can talk about the underlying roots of the problem but people need to stop reacting and start thinking because most governments are in debt. So they are not fully working for the people and btw for those who struggle to work things out, the idea of conspiracy theorist was to shut down those who were telling you of those who have put their agendas before what's good for humanity

And yes the NHS is an example of the attitudes of people who have been conditioned to be indifferent. We see however many dead, and it's shocking but there is a disconnect emotionally. If we saw it for ourselves, people would absolutely hold governments to account more but it's all me me and me. Healthcare workers are important but we also need survival skills. We also need to question big corporation who throw away good food when some are starving. We have this model that is a failure and we as a nation should hold corporations/government to account. We trust them to do what's best for us. Right?

 

[balaks]

Lots of truth in this. The NHS deserve massive respect but why should WE be the ones showing them it when the government has treated them with nothing but disdain for donkeys years? Why is the onus on US? Why is a 99yr old bloke doing laps of his garden seen as the bastion of supporting our NHS when the government can't even supply these heroes with the most basic protective equipment to do their job? It's like being in an episode of some satirical dark comedy show. It's almost bordering on the ludicrous.

It infuriates me that so many people aren't even questioning this. It's really indicative of the lobotomised nature of much of our society to be honest.

You are right and the Government should be getting absolutely slaughtered for the response so far. I think many people are thinking 'this is not the time' and perhaps they are right in that we need to stick together and make the best of this awful situation to get through it. Once this is all over there needs to be a public enquiry and people put under severe scrutiny and the necessary changes implemented. It's a national scandal and to our utter shame that the UK has made such a mess of this and how the NHS has been underfunded and brought to the brink by Tory austerity and mismanagement. All of this needs to come out and I hope the level of outrage will be of the same level as the current level of respect being shown to our NHS front-line staff.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Noticed that too. People always refer to "our NHS" as if it's a close friend. It's a little odd to personify a public service in that way. Germany's system doesn't even have a name and it's partly private which may have worked to our advantage in this crisis.

In other news, Germany's infection rate is now down to 0.7.

I also refer to "our car" and "our house." I am not on speaking terms with either of them. "Our" refers to ownership.

 

[sun_tzu]

Development timelines for medicines usually a fraction of timeline for vaccines. Mind you, development timeline for vaccines usually 8 or 9 years.

Thanks - I had just assumed the clinical trials etc would take a year or so unles it was a pre approved drug for something else - good therapuitc drugs would potentially alleviate signifigant stress from health services so fingers crossed some progress can happen there fairly rapidly - though as you allude to it seems people are already working at rates not previously thought practical .