SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

11101

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I read somewhere further up this thread about the possibility that the virus is weakening. I'm not in a position to say if it is or not, but this quote today from one of the Lombardy's main health advisors is encouraging:

in terms of emergency callouts we have returned, for respiratory emergencies, to levels prior to Covid-19, with very few patients in the emergency room and almost none serious enough to require access to intensive care
In the full text he is saying that very few of the new Covid cases being found are turning serious.
 

Abizzz

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I read somewhere further up this thread about the possibility that the virus is weakening. I'm not in a position to say if it is or not, but this quote today from one of the Lombardy's main health advisors is encouraging:



In the full text he is saying that very few of the new Covid cases being found are turning serious.
That's some great news. It also chimes with the theory that over time the less aggressive mutations are more likely to spread than the more aggressive ones. Let's hope this pattern continues.
 

onemanarmy

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Belgium will reopen bars and restaurants June 8th, with strict regulations of course.

Schools are back open, companies are all operational... starting to feel like normal life again. There are still regulations about how many people you can meet though.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I read somewhere further up this thread about the possibility that the virus is weakening. I'm not in a position to say if it is or not, but this quote today from one of the Lombardy's main health advisors is encouraging:



In the full text he is saying that very few of the new Covid cases being found are turning serious.
Would be fantastic if the virus really has weakened this quickly. Seems a bit unlikely though. Do you think what’s happening might be down to the average patient being younger than they were when the epidemic first hit?
 

sammsky1

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Lifted from internet:

The UK had 256 deaths today.
S Korea has had a similar number during the entire time of the pandemic.
The UK had 2300 new infections today.
S Korea had about 250 this week.
Today S Korea reimposed their lockdown.
Today the UK announced the relaxations of lockdown.
 

Cardboard elk

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Yeah good for you.

I have not seen my parents or family since late january. Miss them like hell.
If you are norwegian you will be able to travel back home. If you are Swedish, you might consider finding a "summer job" as work travels opens 01.june and does not require quarantine neither.

I feel for your situation, however, I have to say, Sweden feels very risky to me atm so I am glad the borders are not open yet. All the jobs sacrificed during the lockdown would be for nothing if we are not careful now.
I hope you get to travel and see your parents soon.
 

BootsyCollins

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If you are norwegian you will be able to travel back home. If you are Swedish, you might consider finding a "summer job" as work travels opens 01.june and does not require quarantine neither.

I feel for your situation, however, I have to say, Sweden feels very risky to me atm so I am glad the borders are not open yet. All the jobs sacrificed during the lockdown would be for nothing if we are not careful now.
I hope you get to travel and see your parents soon.
Thanks man.
i am norwegian so could drive back, but then have to stay in carantine for 10 days if i understand it correctly?
with 3 kids here i cant/wont stay away for that long.
Whole thing sucks, but i understand the Norwegian gouverment.
 

noodlehair

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Whilst i don't disagree with any of that your point on policy by age isn't legal as a formal arrangement. My missus has been dealing with that issue for her employer (i like to eavesdrop) following staff requests and you just can't take such decisions without opening yourself up to risk.

The government could have intervened with clear guidelines but how far do you go in balancing risk of employees. A 60 year old woman vs a 40 year old obese male for instance. My missus actually had a case of an obese individual who didn't want to work and wanted full pay but they were under the criteria so the idiot told them he was going to go eat himself up to the BMI, nothing to do with your post but it shows the mess of employers judging risk.
I get all that but you do need a degree of common sense to deal with situations like this. Your example is exactly what I mean by dealing with these things on a more individual level. You find a solution that works for the people in your and their particular circumstance. Not one that works for any circumstance because that simply isn't possible.

Your example makes sense, but say for example one of the guys going on site at my place caught Covid 19 as a result of their work duties and died, while a majority of the rest of their team has been told to sit at home and do absolutely nothing...well that's a court case for the employer straight away...and it definitely doesn't look good when the people you're discriminating into harms way are the ones most at risk.

The black and white approach with complete lack of concern for any individual person has been the most frustrating thing for me. There's loads of things about it that make absolutely no sense and have almost certainly cost lives where it was probably avoidable. For example I don't understand how you go into lockdown, and end up with epidemics sweeping through care homes. I know hindsight is easy, but it seems to me that as soon as lockdown was on the table, prioritising testing and PPE for care homes and care home workers would be a 100% obvious thing to do. It would be the first thing on the list. There is literally no point in a blanket controlling tactic if it does nothing to specifically protect the people most at risk.

The current fiasco with schools is another. Take two extremes...on the one hand you have a well off family with two parents, plenty of time to home school their child and plenty of spare resources. On the other a single mum with 2-3 kids who is struggling to cope and relies on school as a means to help feed and look after their children. For the former sending their kid to school is an unecessary risk, for the later it's as big of a lifeline to them as a supermarket staying open...and actually, there is no reason at all why one person who needs support can't send their kid to school, and another who doesn't can choose not to. It just requires people to actually work together and talk to each other to come up with a solution. Instead all we've had is conflict and whining because apparently it is either safe to open schools or it isn't and there is no inbetween...even though many care and NHS workers have been sending their kids to school the entire time, so actually, it clearly is very possible to take a flexible approach and balance safety with people's wellbeing. It's just that people are too blinded by all the fear and panic feeding going round to want to do it.
 

noodlehair

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I don't think 'only' is correct. The annoyance of Cummings' actions is something that people find easy to latch onto. I don't speak with too many people in the UK these days outside of a couple of friends and family, but their annoyance has been growing for weeks at the sheer incompetence and woolly leadership on display by the powers that be.
Yeah it's probably an unfair way to describe it. The Cummings incident was probably a catalyst for a lot of people. Hoenstly though I don't know why it's taken this long. We already knew enough to know him and Boris hadn't taken the situation seriously and also clearly aren't smart enough to be the kind of people you want in charge of dealing with it.

I mean for me the last straw of hope faded at "the pubs are staying open, but you shouldn't go to them" and even then I think in hindsight I was a complete idiot for not paying attention to how badly they were cocking things up until that point. That piece of genius alone has probably killed a lot of people.
 

redshaw

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Lifted from internet:

The UK had 256 deaths today.
S Korea has had a similar number during the entire time of the pandemic.
The UK had 2300 new infections today.
S Korea had about 250 this week.
Today S Korea reimposed their lockdown.
Today the UK announced the relaxations of lockdown.
You need new internets?

Maybe you got it from a newspaper website that added up each country's separate figures, not sure where 2300 cases come from.
 

sammsky1

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You need new internets?

Maybe you got it from a newspaper website that added up each country's separate figures, not sure where 2300 cases come from.
Thanks for correction and accurate numbers. I copied from a Facebook post off someone I trust. I should check next time!

But 2095 and 2300 are quite close. The point still remains true, no? That UK ‘good numbers’ allowing relaxing lockdown are even higher than ‘worst numbers’ of Covid19 success countries which requires them to get revert back to lockdown conditions.

For a while I thought UK was suffering because of unique geo political and demographic reasons. But past 2 weeks has proven beyond doubt that UK covid19 leadership is incompetent, corrupt, demotivated and exhausted. And making decisions in that context. It’s very worrying.

I’m not sure why the people of this country are putting up with it.
 
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Anustart89

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Denmark has lifted restrictions to Norway, Germany and Iceland. Norway has lifted restrictions to Denmark. Love how both countries have given the middle finger to Sweden.


Yet, despite Swedes being dirty and infected, Sweden's full of Danes right now :lol:
 

11101

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Would be fantastic if the virus really has weakened this quickly. Seems a bit unlikely though. Do you think what’s happening might be down to the average patient being younger than they were when the epidemic first hit?
Probably a combination of a number of factors. The average time it takes to die is also getting longer, from 6 days I think it was at the start to 11 currently. Older people are definitely hidden away more now and some of the most vulnerable have already died.
 

Wibble

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That's some great news. It also chimes with the theory that over time the less aggressive mutations are more likely to spread than the more aggressive ones. Let's hope this pattern continues.
Given that SARS-CoV-2 spreads very well without killing the majority and even when fatal it takes more than long enough to kill to infect many people before the host dies, I doubt there is much selection pressure making the virus less fatal. There will be genetic change due to the way RNA virises reproduce, in which case the versions of the virus that kill the host less often will become slightly more prevalent, as long as the Ro doesn't change, but that will be a slow process most likely. You tend to see more rapid changes after widespread vaccination but then it is the strains/genetic versions of the virus that are least well targeted by the vaccine that will proliferate, which may or may not be less harmful and/or contagious.

It would be great news if it had become less harmful already but I'm a bit sceptical. That said it is more likely than not that it will become somewhat less, rather than more, harmful to us over time.
 

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Given that SARS-CoV-2 spreads very well without killing the majority and even when fatal it takes more than long enough to kill to infect many people before the host dies, I doubt there is much selection pressure making the virus less fatal. There will be genetic change due to the way RNA virises reproduce, in which case the versions of the virus that kill the host less often will become slightly more prevalent, as long as the Ro doesn't change, but that will be a slow process most likely. You tend to see more rapid changes after widespread vaccination but then it is the strains/genetic versions of the virus that are least well targeted by the vaccine that will proliferate, which may or may not be less harmful and/or contagious.

It would be great news if it had become less harmful already but I'm a bit sceptical. That said it is more likely than not that it will become somewhat less, rather than more, harmful to us over time.
I think this is spot on. The viruses don’t become miraculously less harmful. At times it happens, but there are reasons for that (for example if a virus has one strain that kills you fast, and another that just sickens you a bit, the second one will eventually dominate and so the virus has become less harmful). Covid seems to be extremely efficient at infecting people, to the point that many don’t even know that they are infected and some others know it after a week. For it to spread fast, it does not need to become less harmful.

Many viruses never became less harmful. Typically they have a very high R0. Measles and smallpox for example are two of the viruses that spread most efficiently, and they never became less harmful. Some might even become more harmful (H1N1 in 2018) but there has been a good reason for that (considering that the first wave was mostly on soldiers, those that got mild symptoms just stayed on their room, while those that were real sick had to be transported to hospitals, which in the war involved a contact with many people and so the more harmful strain came to dominate and result with the second wave).

So while on average, the virus might become less harmful over the time, each virus should be considered in isolation, and if it becomes less/more harmful or stays as it is, it probably depends on R0 among other factors. Probably covid does not need to become less harmful considering the efficiency it spreads. The current strain(s) can continue spreading without needing to heavily mutate.
 

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I think this is spot on. The viruses don’t become miraculously less harmful. At times it happens, but there are reasons for that (for example if a virus has one strain that kills you fast, and another that just sickens you a bit, the second one will eventually dominate and so the virus has become less harmful). Covid seems to be extremely efficient at infecting people, to the point that many don’t even know that they are infected and some others know it after a week. For it to spread fast, it does not need to become less harmful.

Many viruses never became less harmful. Typically they have a very high R0. Measles and smallpox for example are two of the viruses that spread most efficiently, and they never became less harmful. Some might even become more harmful (H1N1 in 2018) but there has been a good reason for that (considering that the first wave was mostly on soldiers, those that got mild symptoms just stayed on their room, while those that were real sick had to be transported to hospitals, which in the war involved a contact with many people and so the more harmful strain came to dominate and result with the second wave).

So while on average, the virus might become less harmful over the time, each virus should be considered in isolation, and if it becomes less/more harmful or stays as it is, it probably depends on R0 among other factors. Probably covid does not need to become less harmful considering the efficiency it spreads. The current strain(s) can continue spreading without needing to heavily mutate.
I remember earlier on seeing some speculation that there were variations in strains of Covid-19 that could be accounting for differences in death toll and things like that... is it known now that there are multiple strains?
 

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I remember earlier on seeing some speculation that there were variations in strains of Covid-19 that could be accounting for differences in death toll and things like that... is it known now that there are multiple strains?
I think there have been two strains since the beginning, not sure on mortality differences though. Remember that there was some talk going on that Asia, Germany and West Coast had the milder strain compared to Europe and West Coast but no idea if it was a serious research or not.
 

Carolina Red

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I think there have been two strains since the beginning, not sure on mortality differences though. Remember that there was some talk going on that Asia, Germany and West Coast had the milder strain compared to Europe and West Coast but no idea if it was a serious research or not.
Actually, I just found this... published a week ago.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...new-coronavirus#Serotypes-and-future-research

Seems opinions are still divided as to how many strains.
 

antsmithmk

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I read somewhere further up this thread about the possibility that the virus is weakening. I'm not in a position to say if it is or not, but this quote today from one of the Lombardy's main health advisors is encouraging:



In the full text he is saying that very few of the new Covid cases being found are turning serious.
Or Covid has already killed the ones who had the potential to turn serious...
 

decorativeed

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...g-sage-track-and-trace?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

This headline is just... astonishing... What the feck is going on in your country?!
It's the same old thinking: "Ah, it'll be alright". See also Brexit, climate change.

I know a guy, who after continually saying that he didn't believe that the virus was real, because he couldn't see it, and that the government was not telling us the truth, caught it. He carried on doing video calls with staff, where he complained about "the stuff they don't tell you about - like muscle pain and a terrible sore throat" - you know, two of the main symptoms.

Within a week of that he was on the calls complaining about the one way system in his local tesco. In the last few weeks, people have spotted his extended family wandering through his house in the background when he's on Zoom.

His wife works in the NHS and he's a department manager at a sports club in the North West that many on here will be familiar with. It beggars belief that people are so stupid.
 
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Pogue Mahone

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It's the same old thinking: "Ah, it'll be alright". See also Brexit, climate change.

I know a guy, who after continually saying that he didn't believe that the virus was real, because he couldn't see it, and that the government was not telling us the truth, caught it. He carried on doing video calls with staff, where he complained about "the stuff they don't tell you about - like muscle pain and a terrible sore throat" - you know, two of the main symptoms.

Within a week of that he was on the calls complaining about the one way system in his local tesco. In the last few weeks, people have spotted his extended family wandering through his house in the background when he's on Zoom.

His wife works in the NHS and he's a department manager at a big football club in the North West that many on here will be familiar with. It beggars belief that people are so stupid.
Jesus titty-fecking Christ, that's horrifying to hear.
 

SteveJ

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It's likely not stupidity but self-righteousness. People who are bosses, and are used to be obeyed, tend to act like he is.
 

decorativeed

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It's likely not stupidity but self-righteousness. People who are bosses, and are used to be obeyed, tend to act like he is.
Nah, for all this guy's faults, to be fair to him, that's not one of them. Nice guy, but gets his 'news' from the Sun.
 

SteveJ

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Oh well, that's him knackered then.
 

Brwned

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Yeah, true. And it’s incredibly difficult to try and find that sweet spot where people are just the right amount of scared. I do think, overall, we’ve probably got the balance about right. Public shaming people for walking their dogs in the middle of nowhere or jumping into traffic to keep 2m away from joggers is a bit silly but that’s just one end of the spectrum, with people packing into small gardens for barbeques, or letting teenagers roam around all day in packs at the other. Without causing one set of behaviours, we would get more of the opposite. We tend to focus on the extremes but the success that so many countries have had at flattening the curve tell me that the PH measures have been about right, allowing for some variation between countries.

Because the more we learn about this virus the clearer it becomes that those measures were necessary. All available evidence points towards an IFR of about 1, we know for a fact that asymptomatic spread happens and it’s extremely infectious given the right circumstances. So we’re dealing with a formidable foe, that will kill millions if we don’t stay on top of it. And even if we focus only on the economic cost, that sort of death toll would be catastrophic. Many magnitudes more damaging to society than this recent lockdown.
I'm looking at the public health measures as we relax the lockdown, rather than the immediate response to the crisis. I think the vast majority of people agree the lockdown was necessary, and the UK did it too late. At this stage there isn't much evidence that relaxing the measures quickly - while general principles of social distancing, good hygiene and reduced travel remain - will lead to us losing control of the virus. There's growing evidence that relaxing many of the measures has had a relatively small impact, much to the surprise of key experts in the various countries going through that process now.

When the crisis hit and there was so much uncertainty about how the virus spreads, the only sensible thing to do was act ultra-conversatively. At this stage I think there is much more leeway for policymakers to choose how conservative to be given we have a clearer understanding of the virus and much more evidence about the impact of certain policies. As that becomes more of a choice, it's reasonable for people to question whether that's the right choice, and what the adverse impacts of it might be.

It's possible that we could re-open the economy quickly and significantly reduce the economic damage without significantly increasing the risk of another spike. It's possible that re-opening the economy slowly and steadily will have a much smaller impact on the spread of the virus than we thought, while it might create a sense of prolonged hesitance and fear that wasn't expected. It doesn't naturally follow that because the public health measures to date have been necessary, that the public health measures that follow will be too. It's all just speculation at this stage.
 

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Trouble is a good proportion of the ‘sensible ones’ are not resident in the U.K. There were more than one or two posts in March complaining that the authorities were acting stupidly instructing the police to put dye into a Derbyshire lake in an attempt to prevent gatherings at the spot. Personally I reckon it’s something in the U.K. psyche. Would not matter who was in power or what the message was we would still have more than our fair share of idiots who refused to obey. Sadly my take is that we will only convince folks to obey the advice if we enforce the message rather than continuing to appeal to common sense.