Jacinda Ardern has shown wonderful leadership throughout this crisis, hard to believe she's only 39 too!
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
Yeah, she really has. Her response to the Christchurch massacre was also excellent.
Great news from NZ but you wonder how long they can keep up their current extremely restrictive transport policy. I don’t think there’s a country in the EU that could adopt the same approach. Whatever, I would fecking love to be in NZ right now. They’re getting a clean cut “end” to the crisis that the rest of us will probably never experience. Can you imagine the partying this weekend?!?
Is that 15 minute test a thing/reliable yet?
Could it feasibly be added as an extra step at airports? Not sure which side and I’m not sure what the process would be if people came back positive mind you.
Id hope before departure (possibly both sides but for sure before) - I mean would you want to arrive and then be told the person next to you for the last 8 hours has just tested positive
Yeah that makes most sense but I was just thinking of New Zealand trying to implement it unilaterally.
Even the fanciest tests available have quite a high false negative rate. Which is probably mainly down to swabbing technique or testing too early, before they’re shedding a lot of virus .
No matter how good the antibody blood tests get (which are only start becoming useful a week or two after infection) I think we’ll always be crap at diagnosing people during the early stages of an infection.
https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardi...2/variation-in-false-negative-rate-of-reverse
They’ve a 100% of missing infection on day one and a 38% of missing it, when they first become symptomatic. Even at the most optimal time for testing you’ll still miss one in four.
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I think you can - just make it a condition for carriers that they have to have people checked before boarding - and again in an airport environment you would assume this could be done at check in before any bags are loaded etc - probably just means people have to check in say 30 mins earlier
Of course only as much use as there is accuracy on the tests - but I guess every little helps till there is either a vaccine or super effective treatments
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First time I’ve heard of Mexico in this pandemic. Anyone know what their government did wrong?
She was on a channel 4 discussion programme I watched a while ago. Called out the terrible U.K track and trace testing policy. This was in April. Sir Paul Nurse was also on the panel IIRC.
How is this calculation done? I find it hard to believe that approval ratings are so low.
I don’t see how this doesn’t just happen now the lockdown is basically over. How did the delay supposedly prevent it just reoccurring straight afterwards anyway?Guardian said:
Good numbers for London/UK. End in sight?
Because even after lockdown our behaviour is radically different. When did you last shake someone’s hand, give them a hug, kiss them on their cheek etc etc And how often do you wash your hands nowadays compared to a few months ago?
It actually makes my skin crawl thinking about what was completely normal behaviour on a night out on the town, just a few months ago. It’s fascinating how ‘normal’ behaviour has changed so completely, so quickly. The thought of getting off a crowded tube, then eating a packet of crisps without washing my hands seems like absolute madness. Or going to a business meeting, shaking hands with a total stranger, then eating a load of biscuits. What were we thinking?!
should have paid to have that wall built and kept the infected americans out
I see your point. It's definitely noticable here in France with the ever present cheek kissing conspicuously absent at the moment. Keep seeing people leaning in and then remembering at the last minute though, so I'd imagine they'll be back to normal fairly soon.
Tuesday/Wednesday is usually the highest recorded deaths. I’ll wait to see if that’s any better first.
Still even for today, the number is low
Can't see it disappearing forever, i think subconsciously a lot of it will return.
Fist bumps may be the new shaking hands and hand washing will (hopefully) remain more wide spread but there isn't a snowball in hells chance no hugging will become a part of everyday life longterm.
There was a headline in the newspaper today announcing (in advance) that 'pubs/pub gardens will open from 22nd June'. Know whose was the first quote? Wetherspoons owner & ally of Boris Johnson Tim Martin, quoted as if he was a member of the government.
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Hospital deaths in England seem to be finally down in double figures. Still a fair old stretch to go though.
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Nicely illustrates a two week lag between stopping PH measures and people ending up in hospital.
This does look interesting, hopefully other states can be looked into.
The data since the "2-weeks after" line has suspiciously high r^2 value (to a straight-line fit). Randomness can look like that sometimes, but it does cast doubt on the significance.
I was thinking of exactly this the other day. A week or so before the lockdown was introduced I was at a party. There were quite a few people there and the venue was quite small so lots of people in close proximity. Then obviously the drink started to flow and people, as they tend to do when intoxicated, started to loosen up and there were lots of contact (shaking of hands, arm around the shoulder, dancing, etc). Obviously, at the time it was normal and you didn't' bat an eyelid. But looking back on it now I wince slightly. The impact that this has had on the psyche is quite remarkable really in what is a relatively short space of time. I can't even think about going back to that!
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Good thread on why we’re likely to see a big gap between coming out of lockdown and a second wave.
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More on the topic of a weakening virus. It would explain the other quotes from a couple of weeks ago:
It's possibly not weakening, but the initial doses are lower and giving the body more time to respond.
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Makes sense but I wouldn’t attribute this to just masks. Loads of other behavioural changes that will reduce the viral load when people get infected. And worth remembering that the idea that viral load when first infected influences outcome remains to be proven
It will be interesting to see if any relaxation measures spark an uptick. Despite the lowish number of cases, Lombardy saw a big spike in the infection/test ratio today, the biggest since early May. 2 weeks since gyms reopened and a week after free movement resumed, but it could be a one off.
There are 107 people still in intensive care in Lombardy and if it remains true that not many new cases are ending up there, there may not be many more left to die in Italy.
I just can’t see a scenario where relaxing measures won’t cause an uptick. I’m as guilty as anyone of getting caught up in the excitement of coming out of lockdown and feeling like the virus is somehow much less of a threat. That’s just completely illogical, though.
We’ve zero evidence that it’s any less lethal and contagious but loads of evidence that there’s a huge lag between change in behaviours and impact on the number of cases (remember how we were all discussing the way the curve took so long to flatten despite lockdown?)
It just seems obvious to me that the relatively low case load we’re seeing these last couple of weeks (all over Europe) mainly reflects transmission during lockdown and the post-lockdown surge is still in the post. And I’m absolutely shitting myself about what the BLM protests might have done to the velocity of that surge.
Austria and Denmark have been "reopen" for nearly two months.
I actually thought about editing “last couple of weeks” to “last few weeks” which would make more sense.
Didn’t close the American border quick enough probably.
I'd have to answer Saturday to all of that.
I could be wrong but I really think most people will go back to normal when they think the pandemic is over, rightly or wrongly. It's just human nature. It's pretty tough to let go of habits that we have had for such a long time or indeed develop new ones. I have already noticed that I find it increasingly difficult to remind myself to wash my hands every time I come home. Which would actually be a good habit to have regardless of the Corona situation.
32 states had removed the stay-at home orders by 2 weeks ago. 21 of them have seen cases remain steady or fall. 10 states had removed them by 30th April, including Texas. 5 of the early openers - Tennessee, Montana, Idaho, Georgia and Colorado - have seen cases remain steady or fall for well over a month. 2 more have seen cases fall continuously in June. A blanket comparison based on the stay-at-home orders is limited as some restrictions remained after them, with little consistency across states, so it's easier to look at particular cases.
Iowa relaxed restrictions in 77 of the state's 99 counties on the 1st May, and all of them on the 15th. Cases fell from a 7-day average of 500 (cases) on the 1st May, to 384 on the 15th May, to 319 yesterday.
In Kansas, all businesses besides bars, clubs and museum-types were re-opened on the 4th May, and by the 15th May they allowed museum-types to open. On the 4th May they have a 7-day moving average of 266, by the 15th it had fell to 178, and yesterday it was at 103.
In North Dakota, all businesses besides sports and music events were re-opened on the 1st May. The 7-day moving average was at 52 then, now it's at 42.
It just isn't the case that two weeks after restrictions have been relaxed, there's been a subsequent increase in cases. This is the complete overview for states that have removed the stay-at-home orders. Some go up, some go down, some stay stable.
I’ve been deeply suspicious of cases as a valid metric from day one. Especially in the states, with their fecked up healthcare system and massively variable access to testing. That’s why I thought the tweet was interesting, as it focussed on hospitalisations. As Trump himself said, the best way to get your cases down is to test fewer people!32 states had removed the stay-at home orders by 2 weeks ago. 21 of them have seen cases remain steady or fall. 10 states had removed them by 30th April, including Texas. 5 of the early openers - Tennessee, Montana, Idaho, Georgia and Colorado - have seen cases remain steady or fall for well over a month. 2 more have seen cases fall continuously in June. A blanket comparison based on the stay-at-home orders is limited as some restrictions remained after them, with little consistency across states, so it's easier to look at particular cases.
Iowa relaxed restrictions in 77 of the state's 99 counties on the 1st May, and all of them on the 15th. Cases fell from a 7-day average of 500 (cases) on the 1st May, to 384 on the 15th May, to 319 yesterday.
In Kansas, all businesses besides bars, clubs and museum-types were re-opened on the 4th May, and by the 15th May they allowed museum-types to open. On the 4th May they have a 7-day moving average of 266, by the 15th it had fell to 178, and yesterday it was at 103.
In North Dakota, all businesses besides sports and music events were re-opened on the 1st May. The 7-day moving average was at 52 then, now it's at 42.
It just isn't the case that two weeks after restrictions have been relaxed, there's been a subsequent increase in cases. This is the complete overview for states that have removed the stay-at-home orders. Some go up, some go down, some stay stable.
From what I've heard, they handled it just a bit better than Brazil. Refused to take it seriously and then have refused to do any spending.
India's approval is a testament to the power of propaganda. Our curve is exponential and people have suffered massively in economic terms.
I can't understand the pretty high Swedish approval. They recently admitted mistakes too.
I'm really curious what the Brazilian numes look like. They have a whatsapp-based propaganda machine similar to India's, but they fecked this up in a much more drastic and public way.