SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

BootsyCollins

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Interesting that Victoria's 5 day average of infections peaked 7 days after masks became compulsory - exactly what you would expect if mask are almost uniformally used and they work.

Research has estimated that the recent Stage 3 lockdown (now escalated to Stage 4) saved 37,000 infections and 1250 deaths.

40% of cases in ICU in Victoria are under 40. 75% under 70.
This is a little scary. How many are total in the ICU, and are they all Covid cases?

The good part about that is that it looks like you protected the people most at risk in a good way.
 

Wibble

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This is a little scary. How many are total in the ICU, and are they all Covid cases?

The good part about that is that it looks like you protected the people most at risk in a good way.
In Victoria there are 381 covid cases in hospital and 31 in ICU. I have no idea of non-covid ICU usage but I think at the moment they are coping as I'm sure capacity is much higher than that.

As for protecting the old I'm not sure - it might just be that covid has already ripped through the 6 or 8 homes it got into and the rest are currently clear? I'm guessing though.
 

BootsyCollins

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In Victoria there are 381 covid cases in hospital and 31 in ICU. I have no idea of non-covid ICU usage but I think at the moment they are coping as I'm sure capacity is much higher than that.

As for protecting the old I'm not sure - it might just be that covid has already ripped through the 6 or 8 homes it got into and the rest are currently clear? I'm guessing though.
Mhm, hoping for the best and that you can still manage to get it under control.

And whatever the reason is, the fact that so few over 70(cant be more than 6-7 cases?) at least gives hope that you have a higher chance at saving the lives of the people in ICU. That and the fact we seems to be better at saving ICU patients in general now compared to a couple of months ago.
 

Wibble

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Mhm, hoping for the best and that you can still manage to get it under control.

And whatever the reason is, the fact that so few over 70(cant be more than 6-7 cases?) at least gives hope that you have a higher chance at saving the lives of the people in ICU. That and the fact we seems to be better at saving ICU patients in general now compared to a couple of months ago.
It could also be that the old die quickly so move through ICU quickly - deaths are running at 10-13 per day which is a bit scary when only 30ish are in ICU at any one time. I think the stage 4 lockdown might just get on top of it. NSW seeks to be just hanging in with only 12/13 new infections per day and today non of those were from unknown community transmission sources.
 

BootsyCollins

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It could also be that the old die quickly so move through ICU quickly - deaths are running at 10-13 per day which is a bit scary when only 30ish are in ICU at any one time. I think the stage 4 lockdown might just get on top of it. NSW seeks to be just hanging in with only 12/13 new infections per day and today non of those were from unknown community transmission sources.
Yes could be.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst i guess.
 

utdalltheway

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Has anyone traveled within the US over the last couple of weeks? I am curious to know what the procedure is when you land or cross into another state via road. I know each state has its own restrictions but they seem to be changing often.
Don’t know about coming into the country but you shouldn’t see too many restrictions passing between states on the roads/rail/air.
Some states ask you to self quarantine for 14 days if you come in to a low risk state from a high risk state (eg traveling into NY from FL).
AFAIK though they are not enforcing that quarantine.
What’s your itinerary?
 

F-Red

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Would it not be helpful to look at new cases/amount tested? Because cases rise but testing numbers increase so its hard to know how to digest the cases numbers.
I'm not sure I follow, that is what we're looking at? New cases per 100k of people by location. The total number against has a wider implication but if we're seeing cases rise in areas which aren't declared hotspots then it would indicate a rapid spread of the virus. Supplement with hospital admission trends and you can get a clear picture, quickly.
 
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Interesting that Victoria's 5 day average of infections peaked 7 days after masks became compulsory - exactly what you would expect if mask are almost uniformally used and they work.

Research has estimated that the recent Stage 3 lockdown (now escalated to Stage 4) saved 37,000 infections and 1250 deaths.

40% of cases in ICU in Victoria are under 40. 75% under 70.
Bit early to say that Victoria is past peak isn’t it?

And surely the other steps in the new lockdown are also a big part of the reason for infections dropping if that is the case?
 

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Bit early to say that Victoria is past peak isn’t it?

And surely the other steps in the new lockdown are also a big part of the reason for infections dropping if that is the case?
Far too early to say past the peak. Just encouraging that there is a drop in the 7 day average when you would expect it due to the introduction of mask regulations, after stage 3 hadn't quite slowed infection to a R of below 1. Hopefully stage 4 will help further. I hope we go for elimination (barring returnees in quarantine).
 

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I'm not sure that is the most accurate reporting. I have seen reports claiming that up to 50% of a few slums have allegedly been infected but I very much doubt that over 23% of Delhi's population have been infected. As the population is nearly 19 million there would be piles of bodies in the street - 30,000-90,000 deaths in that city alone.

It also state that herd immunity occurs at 60-70% but it may well be as high as 85%. So herd immunity would result in 100-300,000 deaths.
 

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I've been observing this crowd all day.
So the couple that live in the house are elderly and there is regularly an order of Malta ambulance outside the house. The woman is in a wheelchair anyway so I'm thinking she's in a high risk Category.
I'm not exaggerating when I say they were all over each other all day and one man had a fit of coughing and barely covered his mouth but when he did he used his hand.
Used said hand then to shake hands with several people as they have been leaving.


I really hope nobody had it there because they will all have it if one of them have it.
Most of the adults were very overweight too.
Obviously they don't care

Unreal.
I’ve seen some handshakes in the last few months too. How fecking THICK do you have to be to not follow the most basic advice we’ve been given?!? Can’t work out how that happens. Honestly think the world would be a better place if covid weeded these cretins out of our gene pool.
 
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I hope we go for elimination (barring returnees in quarantine).
How long would that take do you think?

I'm guessing it would have to be stage 4 lockdown in Victoria for a long time?

Australia is set to go past Norway in the total death toll this week, you've had double the confirmed cases of Norway now and are in a much more difficult spot than Norway now, with Norway averaging around just 25 cases per day; yet the Norwegians don't consider elimination a possibility at all. All this despite being incredibly more strict than Norway all the way through this and having that huge advantage of no land borders.
 
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McGrathsipan

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I’ve seen some handshakes in the last few months too. How fecking THICK do you have to be to not follow the most basic advice we’ve been given?!? Can’t work out how that happens. Honestly think the world would be a better place if covid weeded these cretins out of our gene pool.
I think people just dont care anymore. Isolation fatigue.

My own mother went to a BBQ last week and I gave her a lecture and she replied " i dont care anymore" - "my life is not worth living as it is". "Stuck alone in the house all day. Ill take my chances".
She is 65 and not the fittest person in the world.
 

Dancfc

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Have Melbourne really Draconianly locked down over 7 deaths? :houllier:

I get every death is tragic but where's the line? The sell for the initial lockdown (which i was behind) was to protect the health service but now is any small cluster going to cause another heavy lockdown? It's the next generation i feel desperately sorry for, they're literally going to have nothing to look forward too bar merely existing and that's if they're lucky.
 
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I think people just dont care anymore. Isolation fatigue.

My own mother went to a BBQ last week and I gave her a lecture and she replied " i dont care anymore" - "my life is not worth living as it is". "Stuck alone in the house all day. Ill take my chances".
She is 65 and not the fittest person in the world.
Amazes me that so many still don't seem to understand this, fatigue was always going to be a huge issue.

I've heard so many talk as your mum did, both back home and here in Sweden. The phrase "life is too short" exists in so many languages for a reason. The missus grandma who I've mentioned so many times in here, she can have 2 metre apart booked visits now when there are time slots available but after 6 months of this she'd rather not, she'd much rather spend her last months or hopefully years on the planet spending time with family, going on walks etc. Spending your last days in a care home isn't fun at the best of times, but this is horrific.

I think it'd be different if people could see light at the end of the tunnel, but as the WHO confirmed yesterday, there is a big chance there will be no magic bullet for this.
 

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Have Melbourne really Draconianly locked down over 7 deaths? :houllier:

I get every death is tragic but where's the line? The sell for the initial lockdown (which i was behind) was to protect the health service but now is any small cluster going to cause another heavy lockdown? It's the next generation i feel desperately sorry for, they're literally going to have nothing to look forward too bar merely existing and that's if they're lucky.
Small clusters still cause very quick spreads. It's the only way to control a virus.
 
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Have Melbourne really Draconianly locked down over 7 deaths? :houllier:
I think NZ is a big issue there, there was a short window where Australia and NZ thought they'd be virus free and could have their own little economic bubble whilst the rest of the World struggled. Attracting big events to the countries where crowds could be present etc, it was an opportunity in all the mayhem.

I've no idea how long Wibs thinks Victoria would have to lockdown for in order to achieve this, as I mentioned earlier, Norway don't consider it a possibility despite them doing a much better job so far than Australia and being in a much better position currently. And all that achieved with a very light and extremely short lockdown (and no stay in your home lockdown) compared to this Aussie strong handed stuff.
 

Dancfc

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Small clusters still cause very quick spreads. It's the only way to control a virus.
That's where precautions and mitigation come in, there's been many clusters in Europe that have been dealt with well without having to lock down. Rome is one recent example.

I get there's going to be sacrifices until a vaccine, I'm happy to wear masks in shops, I'm happy to stay away from my grandparents and vulnerable mate even though it's left massive holes in my life, I'm happy to take all the appropriate precautions to minimize the odds of not only me catching it but also passing it on but there still needs to be a balance that allows there to actually be a world to come out of this too, the thought that my nieces/nephews/godchildren and even younger work colleagues won't get even a fraction of the opportunities in life that I've had truly breaks my heart.
 

F-Red

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That's where precautions and mitigation come in, there's been many clusters in Europe that have been dealt with well without having to lock down. Rome is one recent example.

I get there's going to be sacrifices until a vaccine, I'm happy to wear masks in shops, I'm happy to stay away from my grandparents and vulnerable mate, I'm happy to take all the appropriate precautions to minimize the odds of not only me catching it but also passing it on but there still needs to be a balance that allows there to actually be a world to come out of this too, the thought that my nieces/nephews/godchildren and even younger work colleagues won't get even the fraction of the opportunities in life that I've had truly breaks my heart.
It has been established that you're a bit of a melodramatic when it comes to these types of discussions, thinking the world is going to end if you're not allowed to go to Glastonbury this year. It'll be tough for the next 18-24 months but after that it will start to pick up, but it certainly isn't a hanging from the rafters moment that you're constantly trying to depict. Sounds like you're consuming too much media & not getting out of the house enough.
 
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It has been established that you're a bit of a melodramatic when it comes to these types of discussions, thinking the world is going to end if you're not allowed to go to Glastonbury this year. It'll be tough for the next 18-24 months but after that it will start to pick up, but it certainly isn't a hanging from the rafters moment that you're constantly trying to depict. Sounds like you're consuming too much media & not getting out of the house enough.
I’d argue the naive one is the guy that thinks anything will be back to normal after 24 months of this.

Where’s the magic money coming from?
 

F-Red

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I’d argue the naive one is the guy that thinks anything will be back to normal after 24 months of this.

Where’s the magic money coming from?
You‘d have to be naive if you think governments wouldn’t be attempting to stimulate any economy in that time, otherwise there would have been no recovery from the very first recession.

It’ll be different in 24 months, but not in the industries or leisure activities that people remember. It’s laughable really that people want a very consumerism led normality after this. If anything, it’s highlighted how poor normality was before this. Inflexible working is a great example.
 

Wibble

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How long would that take do you think?

I'm guessing it would have to be stage 4 lockdown in Victoria for a long time?

Australia is set to go past Norway in the total death toll this week, you've had double the confirmed cases of Norway now and are in a much more difficult spot than Norway now, with Norway averaging around just 25 cases per day; yet the Norwegians don't consider elimination a possibility at all. All this despite being incredibly more strict than Norway all the way through this and having that huge advantage of no land borders.
I have no idea if elimination is possible. We may have blown it by opening up too soon when it was possible. Now it is in mid winter and community infection in more closely packed communities has occured which makes things harder. I can't wait for spring as it can only help.

And we do have borders between states which has helped keep most states covid free.

Stage 4 lockdown is for 6 weeks initially and I guess we will know more in a few weeks time. NSW is doing ok but imo the jury is still out as we don't really know for sure how much community transmission we have imported yet.
 
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I have no idea if elimination is possible. We may have blown it by opening up too soon when it was possible. Now it is in mid winter and community infection in more closely packed communities has occured which makes things harder. I can't wait for spring as it can only help.

And we do have borders between states which has helped keep most states covid free.

Stage 4 lockdown is for 6 weeks initially and I guess we will know more in a few weeks time. NSW is doing ok but imo the jury is still out as we don't really know for sure how much community transmission we have imported yet.
6 weeks is not remotely long enough to eradicate it considering the case numbers you have currently. We know that without any doubt from Europe.

Maybe 3 months minimum I'd imagine, of stage 4 lockdown.
 
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You‘d have to be naive if you think governments wouldn’t be attempting to stimulate any economy in that time, otherwise there would have been no recovery from the very first recession.

It’ll be different in 24 months, but not in the industries or leisure activities that people remember. It’s laughable really that people want a very consumerism led normality after this. If anything, it’s highlighted how poor normality was before this. Inflexible working is a great example.
I don't want normal.

I do want my kid to have free schooling, I do want the UK NHS to remain free, I do want great public services, I want the rest of Europe to have the parental leave we have here in Scandyland, especially new Dads. I want childcare to be partially state funded. I don't want people to have 20 years of austerity to pay for 24 months of this.

I do want companies to be more open to WFH, I want UBI but the chances of that after 24 months of this? it'll be another 20 years away at least.

You are beyond naive if can't see that austerity is here to stay for a long time, the longer we continue like the last months, the longer that will continue. Taxes will certainly have to go up, and public services will be cut. You can't keep borrowing these quite frankly insane sums of money from a magic money tree, the central banks want that interest and money. The US borrowed 3 fecking trillion dollars in just the second quarter of 2020.

Let's not also forget that austerity measures since 2008 are likely a part of the reason so many countries were vastly underprepared to deal with this pandemic in the first place.

To claim @Dancfc is being "melodramatic" must surely mean that you are incredibly naive to how borrowing from central banks works, and who eventually pays for it.
 
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Wibble

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Have Melbourne really Draconianly locked down over 7 deaths? :houllier:

I get every death is tragic but where's the line? The sell for the initial lockdown (which i was behind) was to protect the health service but now is any small cluster going to cause another heavy lockdown? It's the next generation i feel desperately sorry for, they're literally going to have nothing to look forward too bar merely existing and that's if they're lucky.
Over 100 deaths in a week - doubling the national death toll. And if you don't get on top of the 700 new cases a day Victoria is in real trouble. We need this under control to minimise the economic impacts even if you don't care about the deaths, which the Australian public do. There is widespread approval for this new lockdown.
 

Wibble

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6 weeks is not remotely long enough to eradicate it considering the case numbers you have currently. We know that without any doubt from Europe.

Maybe 3 months minimum I'd imagine, of stage 4 lockdown.
6 weeks is the initial stage 4 lockdown period. It may then be extended or continued at stage 3 but only if the numbers warrant it. As you say it isn't likely to be quick.
 

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I think people just dont care anymore. Isolation fatigue.

My own mother went to a BBQ last week and I gave her a lecture and she replied " i dont care anymore" - "my life is not worth living as it is". "Stuck alone in the house all day. Ill take my chances".
She is 65 and not the fittest person in the world.
A million times this. Mental health is hardly a priority at the moment which does not change the fact that it is likely the worst it has been since ww2 globally.
 

F-Red

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I don't want normal.

I do want my kid to have free schooling, I do want the UK NHS to remain free, I do want great public services, I want the rest of Europe to have the parental leave we have here in Scandyland, especially new Dads. I want childcare to be partially state funded. I don't want people to have 20 years of austerity to pay for 24 months of this.
Even before this pandemic happened, the services that people want isn’t going to be possible on the current taxation structure. If you’re even going to get into a conversation of what is the ideals, i think the whole structure needs a review. Both personal and business taxation (and i mean more than the notion of a higher rate tax band for vanity measures) needs to be increased to faciliate those. I agree with you in terms of aspirations for what services should be free, i broadly think that currently the tax structure for individuals doesn’t cut it & it needs more funding from everyone to get to that level of service.

I do want companies to be more open to WFH, I want UBI but the chances of that after 24 months of this? it'll be another 20 years away at least.
UBI has had trials, and studies have shown that it doesn’t solve poverty and inequality. I can’t see that coming to fruition.

You are beyond naive if can't see that austerity is here to stay for a long time, the longer we continue like the last months, the longer that will continue. Taxes will certainly have to go up, and public services will be cut. You can't keep borrowing these quite frankly insane sums of money from a magic money tree, the central banks want that interest and money. The US borrowed 3 fecking trillion dollars in just the second quarter of 2020.
We’ve had austerity in the UK for over a decade now, the point about 24 months was around the current restrictions and getting back to some form of ‘normality’ ie. people moving around in the normal day to day process. As i said previously, taxes needed to increase anyway if we want the public services we need, this doesn’t come from anyone but the publics pocket.

Let's not also forget that austerity measures since 2008 are likely a part of the reason so many countries were vastly underprepared to deal with this pandemic in the first place.
Yes and no, governments ignored the discussion around pandemic preparations and broadly ignored guidance around it. UK specifically failed tests a few years ago around a pandemic. Austerity isn’t to blame for that one, that’s simply incompetence.

To claim @Dancfc is being "melodramatic" must surely mean that you are incredibly naive to how borrowing from central banks works, and who eventually pays for it.
I’m sure you’ve read his previous posts. He suggests that even the most basic of restrictions of viral control will plunder society into widespread depression. It’s been shown that those with the better controls of the virus, have acted swiftly and deeply to get it under control.
 
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Even before this pandemic happened, the services that people want isn’t going to be possible on the current taxation structure.
That's the whole point.

We couldn't have it before, and we've seen 10 years of this. Increasing taxes after 24 months of in and out of lockdown will just touch the tip of the iceberg.

You think he's being melodramatic because he's being a realist on this issue. 24 months of this and the next generation are absolutely going to pay, even more than we have for 10 years or more.
 

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@F-Red , the proportions don't work out mildly. The UK was running at GBP 41.5 Billion deficit in 2019. That's 1.9% of the GDP that they would have to additionally extract in the form of taxes today or over time just to cover the 2019 shortfall. Now the projected deficit for 2020 is almost GBP 300 Billion or 15% of a new GDP lower by 10%.

To cover this shortfall you would have to increase taxation to an average rate of 49% vs the ~33% it is at now. And that's if the projection is right for this year and not worse as this extends. The more the situation extends, the deeper it gets. You thought taxes needed to go up to fund better services and you had maybe a few percentage point gap between what you'd like and the current situation, and its still very hard to get to politically. Now you have a gap several times the size as before just to get back to where you were pre-pandemic, not even thinking about improvements.

In terms of economics, this is deep and it isn't easy to solve. Weaker countries go into political turmoil and democracies tumble over economic issues of a lesser scale. I don't think it will happen to European countries that still have high standards of living and high population buy-in for democracy. But it won't be fun to live through.
 
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Sarni

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Have Melbourne really Draconianly locked down over 7 deaths? :houllier:

I get every death is tragic but where's the line? The sell for the initial lockdown (which i was behind) was to protect the health service but now is any small cluster going to cause another heavy lockdown? It's the next generation i feel desperately sorry for, they're literally going to have nothing to look forward too bar merely existing and that's if they're lucky.
Finding balance is key. Every life is important of course but it's completely unrealistic to try and eradicate the virus completely from society, barring a vaccine which may or may not come.
 

Sarni

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@F-Red , the proportions don't work out mildly. The UK was running at GBP 41.5 Billion deficit in 2019. That's 1.9% of the GDP that they would have to additionally extract in the form of taxes today or over time just to cover the 2019 shortfall. Now the projected deficit for 2020 is almost GBP 300 Billion or 15% of a new GDP lower than 10%.

To cover this shortfall you would have to increase taxation to an average rate of 49% vs the ~33% it is at now. And that's if the projection is right for this year and not worse as this extends. The more the situation extends, the deeper it gets. You thought taxes needed to go up to fund better services and you had maybe a few percentage point gap between what you'd like and the current situation, and its still very hard to get to politically. Now you have a gap several times the size as before just to get back to where you were pre-pandemic, not even thinking about improvements.

In terms of economics, this is deep and it isn't easy to solve. Weaker countries go into political turmoil and democracies tumble over economic issues of a lesser scale. I don't think it will happen to European countries that still have high standards of living and high population buy-in for democracy. But it won't be fun to live through.
That is true. Going 18-24 months with handicapped economy is not something you can climb out of by government stimulating economy. Even 2-3 months is a massive gap to catch up, as it virtually means most households will lose their income for that period and will have it significantly reduced in the months following lockdown. Obviously there are a lot of people who can survive that but there are many times more who can barely do that. And conspiracy nutters actually believe someone will benefit from it.
 

Pexbo

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Have Melbourne really Draconianly locked down over 7 deaths? :houllier:

I get every death is tragic but where's the line? The sell for the initial lockdown (which i was behind) was to protect the health service but now is any small cluster going to cause another heavy lockdown? It's the next generation i feel desperately sorry for, they're literally going to have nothing to look forward too bar merely existing and that's if they're lucky.
It’s exactly the way to handle it. Why wait until you are in the hundreds to inevitably enact exactly the same measures when you can have far greater benefit from an early lock down? They have the benefit of every other country’s hindsight now, it’s futile hoping the virus won’t spread, it will and it will kill people.
 

MTF

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That is true. Going 18-24 months with handicapped economy is not something you can climb out of by government stimulating economy. Even 2-3 months is a massive gap to catch up, as it virtually means most households will lose their income for that period and will have it significantly reduced in the months following lockdown. Obviously there are a lot of people who can survive that but there are many times more who can barely do that. And conspiracy nutters actually believe someone will benefit from it.
The simple way to think of it is that there is a bill to pay, and it will be paid. We put it on the government account because no other entity in society can borrow as much money at such low rates. Then it gets paid over a span of many years, maybe a decade or more. But paying it means either higher taxes, lower spending (services) or inflation, or a combination of the 3. Higher taxes as the main source is probably the "best" way to do it, but people need to review the make-up of the GDP again to realize that just "tax the rich" isn't even enough to cover something of this size. Everyone who has an income or buys products will be paying added taxes to what they did before. The worst case scenario is that the near-term disorganization of your economy due to job losses and business foreclosures means that for years you're stuck at lower output/GDP and high unemployment.

Another thought experiment to think through this: if you were living in a fully socialist society where the government owns all enterprise and you don't have personal or corporate debt, but you still have a currency and wage rates for how much people are paid, right now you would be asking people in the essential parts of the economy to continue working while those in those that can't operate sat at home to the extent that they couldn't be redirected to other functions due to lack of expertise or sheer logistics. But you would actually have to pay the people still working (and probably working harder) less than you did before, because you need to account for all the other goods and services that aren't being produced so they can't consume. Even in that situation you realize there is always a cost to be paid for shutting down a large part of the economy for any period of time.
 
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Sarni

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Location
Krakow
It’s exactly the way to handle it. Why wait until you are in the hundreds to inevitably enact exactly the same measures when you can have far greater benefit from an early lock down? They have the benefit of every other country’s hindsight now, it’s futile hoping the virus won’t spread, it will and it will kill people.
But you are inevitably going back and forth with that until vaccine is produced. Which may be never. Depends whether your society is prepared to spend months/years doing that. Some will be better prepared than others.

At some point world will have to go back to normal though and we will treat this virus as we treat any other.