SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Pogue Mahone]

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That makes grim reading.

In other news, this is what it looks like to have testing capacity and processes that are fit for purpose. And we were wondering why Germany is managing to keep on top of their second wave?!

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[NinjaFletch]

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I know it's been said a million times, but anyone who was out doing key work the day before and the day after the Barnard Castle escapade saw the night and day difference. The Tories made it clear that the rules didn't apply to them and the public made it clear that they shouldn't apply to them too.

 

[Hammerfell]

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What a selfish country we are.

 

[Pexbo]

That makes grim reading.

In other news, this is what it looks like to have testing capacity and processes that are fit for purpose. And we were wondering why Germany is managing to keep on top of their second wave?!

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Someone needs to raise this in PMQ and get Boris to explain why exactly this was possible for Germany and impossible for the UK

 

[Jacko21]

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[Paxi]

I have been tossing ideas around regarding conspiracies in my moments of madness and what i conclude is that if I were a world leader, looking to assert control around the world or looking at having 80% of the globe microchipped. Then i would probably make a virus. A virus that nobody has ever known. That is super contagious. A virus that infects immediately but doesn't give any clues for 2 weeks, giving you plenty of time to pass it around.

I would then strike fear into every single living person by exaggerating its effects. Forcing everyone to stay inside. I would massage the stats to cause more devastation and demand for a vaccine.

Whilst all this goes on i have my best scientists inventing a LIQUID microchip that we can disguise within a vaccine.

After 15 months of hell on earth, these clowns (me included) are so fed up and just want a return to the norm, they all queue up for what they believe is just a simple vaccine..... Little do they know, that as a world leader, i now have everyone microchipped. Everyone under surveillance and nobody is aware.

That sounds plausible to be fair... ...if you’ve been tossing your ideas around while you were on crack.

 

[Stack]

That makes grim reading.

In other news, this is what it looks like to have testing capacity and processes that are fit for purpose. And we were wondering why Germany is managing to keep on top of their second wave?!

The cost of all those testing stations and staff would be a tiny fraction of the cost of having to pay peoples wages to keep them at home in a lockdown. I wonder why the UK isnt trying to replicate what Germany is doing. I have a couple of Elderly relatives up in Aberdeen who have spent too much of this year housebound a fair bit of it due to fear rather than mandated but I would love to see the UK operating with the sort of clarity of approach that Germany appears to have.

 

[F-Red]

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Ridiculous behaviour, and people wonder why curfews are being introduced? 11% only isolating after test and trace is shocking and shows that people aren't listening to the advice.

Partly attributable to the weak and mixed messaging from the government, the main element being the general publics lack of common sense.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The cost of all those testing stations and staff would be a tiny fraction of the cost of having to pay peoples wages to keep them at home in a lockdown. I wonder why the UK isnt trying to replicate what Germany is doing. I have a couple of Elderly relatives up in Aberdeen who have spent too much of this year housebound a fair bit of it due to fear rather than mandated but I would love to see the UK operating with the sort of clarity of approach that Germany appears to have.

I’m not even sure it’s about cost cutting. The whole approach just seems so chaotic and haphazard. Nothing fully thought through.

 

[F-Red]

In other news, we had a visit to my works operation site from the police today who are randomly checking on bigger businesses to ensure they're complying with the guidelines.

We had no visit during the first phase (we've been open the whole way through) so it feels like they're stepping up the checks.

 

[Sweet Square]

That makes grim reading.

In other news, this is what it looks like to have testing capacity and processes that are fit for purpose. And we were wondering why Germany is managing to keep on top of their second wave?!

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It might be worth another thread as it will derail this one but just quickly imo the covid response from Britain is the end result of decades of thatcherism.

Had Labour won the last election(They basically wanted to update Britain to a similar level of the Germans)we would have maybe seen a slightly less shit result because the reality is the British state simply doesn't have the required tools no matter who's in charge to deal with a pandemic like covid.

Decades of stripping back the social contract, destroying collective power, building an economy based on assets prices and cheap service labour all to be managed by coked up inbred eton cartoons is going to produce some awful results.

I know it's been said a million times, but anyone who was out doing key work the day before and the day after the Barnard Castle escapade saw the night and day difference. The Tories made it clear that the rules didn't apply to them and the public made it clear that they shouldn't apply to them too.

Agree that seems to be at least one of the turning points, would be interesting to see if there any data to back this up.

What a selfish country we are.

'Economics are the method: the object is to change the soul'.

 

[Pexbo]

So on Sunday, my Girlfriend’s manager’s son was at the house of a boy who has since tested positive. My girlfriend was in the (COVID ”safe”) office with her on Monday. Now according to government rules, we don’t need to isolate unless we have symptoms but what’s everyone’s thoughts here on the ethical decision for us?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

So on Sunday, my Girlfriend’s manager’s son was at the house of a boy who has since tested positive. My girlfriend was in the (COVID ”safe”) office with her on Monday. Now according to government rules, we don’t need to isolate unless we have symptoms but what’s everyone’s thoughts here on the ethical decision for us?

In Ireland you wouldn’t be expected to isolate either. I wouldn’t judge you if you cracked on as normal.

 

[Pexbo]

In Ireland you wouldn’t be expected to isolate either. I wouldn’t judge you if you cracked on as normal.

Yeah that’s the government advice designed to keep the country moving, but what do you think the actual risk is? How effective really is dividing screens, social distancing and hand sanitiser and how quickly can people become spreaders?

 

[F-Red]

It might be worth another thread as it will derail this one but just quickly imo the covid response from Britain is the end result of decades of thatcherism.

Had Labour won the last election(They basically wanted to update Britain to a similar level of the Germans)we would have maybe seen a slightly less shit result because the reality is the British state simply doesn't have the required tools no matter who's in charge to deal with a pandemic like covid.

Decades of stripping back the social contract, destroying collective power, building an economy based on assets prices and cheap service labour all to be managed by coked up inbred eton cartoons is going to produce some awful results.

I think you're over thinking it somewhat. It can be easily linked to exercise Cygnus back in 2016, if they had implemented the recommendations then we wouldn't be in the situation we find ourselves now.

 

[massi83]

So on Sunday, my Girlfriend’s manager’s son was at the house of a boy who has since tested positive. My girlfriend was in the (COVID ”safe”) office with her on Monday. Now according to government rules, we don’t need to isolate unless we have symptoms but what’s everyone’s thoughts here on the ethical decision for us?

Carry on as normal. Your girlfriend hasn't been in contact with anyone who has tested positive.

Also if the boy got sick on Sunday it is virtually impossible that manager got sick by Monday and infected someone on Monday, it takes more time, one doesn't become infectious immediately.

 

[hobbers]

Yeah that’s the government advice designed to keep the country moving, but what do you think the actual risk is? How effective really is dividing screens, social distancing and hand sanitiser and how quickly can people become spreaders?

Very minimal.

Wouldn't that be far too quick a turnaround anyway? Even if the son caught the virus on Sunday he would have to become infectious, pass it to his mum and then she in turn would have to become infectious all within 24 hours. Basically impossible.

Obviously if the boy or his mum test positive down the line and your girlfriend has been in the office with her manager again then that's a different story.

 

[DixieDean]

When talking about this virus some people love to play the role of grim reaper. I don't know why, but they seem to revel in putting as negative spin possible on every bit of news relating to it.

See some news that's a cause for optimism? Don't worry, they soon pop up to tell you why that news is wrong and actually we're all going to die.

 

[Beans]

Dr. Chris Martenson criticizing British govt for claiming that the chance of a false positive is very small. The current test used in England has a claimed specificity of 99% (though one study suggests 95% real world specificity), but with 18.9 million tested that's 189,000 false positives. Out of 230,000 daily tests you would get 2,300 daily false positives.

 

[Penna]

I see Morrisons supermarket has had to impose a limit on how much toilet paper and disinfectant people can buy. Good grief, not again.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Dr. Chris Martenson criticizing British govt for claiming that the chance of a false positive is very small. The current test used in England has a claimed specificity of 99% (though one study suggests 95% real world specificity), but with 18.9 million tested that's 189,000 false positives. Out of 230,000 daily tests you would get 2,300 daily false positives.

All the pissing and moaning about false positives is infuriating. Yes, there will be false positives. But that doesn’t make a steady increase in total cases any less important. And the people starting to fill up hospitals and ICUs sure as shit aren’t false positives.

The other thing these gimps never bring up are false negatives. And false negatives are liable to be just as big an issue, as its really important to time the test right if you want to be confident a negative result is reliable. As the testing delays build up we’re going to get more and more false negatives.

 

[Beans]

All the pissing and moaning about false positives is infuriating. Yes, there will be false positives. But that doesn’t make a steady increase in total cases any less important. And the people starting to fill up hospitals and ICUs sure as shit aren’t false positives.

The other thing these gimps never bring up are false negatives. And false negatives are liable to be just as big an issue, as its really important to time the test right if you want to be confident a negative result is reliable. As the testing delays build up we’re going to get more and more false negatives.

He brings up false negatives. But he's done dozens of hours of coverage, he's especially looking for misconceptions. He's been saying it's very serious from the beginning. But if up to half your daily positives are false I think that's worth knowing.

 

[Wibble]

I have been tossing ideas around regarding conspiracies in my moments of madness and what i conclude is that if I were a world leader, looking to assert control around the world or looking at having 80% of the globe microchipped. Then i would probably make a virus. A virus that nobody has ever known. That is super contagious. A virus that infects immediately but doesn't give any clues for 2 weeks, giving you plenty of time to pass it around.

I would then strike fear into every single living person by exaggerating its effects. Forcing everyone to stay inside. I would massage the stats to cause more devastation and demand for a vaccine.

Whilst all this goes on i have my best scientists inventing a LIQUID microchip that we can disguise within a vaccine.

After 15 months of hell on earth, these clowns (me included) are so fed up and just want a return to the norm, they all queue up for what they believe is just a simple vaccine..... Little do they know, that as a world leader, i now have everyone microchipped. Everyone under surveillance and nobody is aware.

Weren't you the poster who suggested that schools are plotting to turn kids gay/trans to control population?

 

[Stack]

I read somewhere yesterday a stat that if true might help explain a few things. It was that just 18% of those in the UK who had tested postive or were awaiting a test result had self isolated. I might have the details slightly wrong here but interested to hear if anyone else read this.

 

[Berbaclass]

I read somewhere yesterday a stat that if true might help explain a few things. It was that just 18% of those in the UK who had tested postive or were awaiting a test result had self isolated. I might have the details slightly wrong here but interested to hear if anyone else read this.

It’s at the top of the page in a tweet.

 

[Stack]

It’s at the top of the page in a tweet.

Ha!. Genius......

 

[Wibble]

Herd immunity is a much abused phrase and a red herring when it comes to Sweden (an appropriate fish for Sweden, right?) Where they are likely to have an advantage over a lot of other countries in the next couple of years is in having a refined approach to getting on with as normal a life as possible while living with the virus. Plus the higher the % of people exposed the easier it is to put a lid on each outbreak. This isn’t about getting to 70-80% exposure and your problems suddenly go away. It’s a gradual process with each person that recovers acting as a fire break and the more fire breaks the better.

Now obviously if reinfection happens quickly or frequently that torpedoes this strategy. But it also puts a huge hole below the waterline of any strategy reliant on eradication.

HIT is the aim if you want to return to normal and live with the virus because the alternative is that the old, immune compromised and others who can't be vaccinated for whatever reason will continue to suffer. Of course any natural immunity helps keep the Re down on top of other things like social distancing but you have to get at the very least close to HIT to even return t a new normal IMO. Eradication probably isn't going to happen as many people aren't rational when it comes to vaccination as shown by the return of previously almost eradicated diseases like measles. I'm also hoping that the seemingly stronger immune reaction to the vaccines as compared to the actual infection will help us get to HIT in most countries. It will be interesting to see what happens. Australia is providing everyone with a free vaccine if/when it arrives and originally said it would be compulsory but then backed away from that quickly. Who knows with our bunch of evil Federal clowns (think of Boris only with an evangelical talking in tongues addition) but I could see heavy encouragement to vaccinate including potentially restricting access to childcare, school or social security/tax benefits as a stick.

The US will be a shit show and I'd guess that they will be lucky to get 30% take-up. What do you think about the take-up in UK and Ireland and/or their governments attitude to how they will encourage people to get it?

 

[Wibble]

All the pissing and moaning about false positives is infuriating. Yes, there will be false positives. But that doesn’t make a steady increase in total cases any less important. And the people starting to fill up hospitals and ICUs sure as shit aren’t false positives.

The other thing these gimps never bring up are false negatives. And false negatives are liable to be just as big an issue, as its really important to time the test right if you want to be confident a negative result is reliable. As the testing delays build up we’re going to get more and more false negatives.

I'd have thought false negatives are worse in that they can continue infecting people? And as you say the increase in hospitalisation isn't a figment of the imagination.

 

[Wibble]

There has been a huge upsurge in this sort of report in the last few days https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/23/houston-coronavirus-mutations/?arc404=true

Isn't this the mutation that we have known about since April?

 

[zing]

Herd immunity is a much abused phrase and a red herring when it comes to Sweden (an appropriate fish for Sweden, right?) Where they are likely to have an advantage over a lot of other countries in the next couple of years is in having a refined approach to getting on with as normal a life as possible while living with the virus. Plus the higher the % of people exposed the easier it is to put a lid on each outbreak. This isn’t about getting to 70-80% exposure and your problems suddenly go away. It’s a gradual process with each person that recovers acting as a fire break and the more fire breaks the better.

Now obviously if reinfection happens quickly or frequently that torpedoes this strategy. But it also puts a huge hole below the waterline of any strategy reliant on eradication.

I am confused about something. Sweden has 6000 deaths with a population of 10 million. Assuming 1% IFR would imply 5% of the population have been infected which is too low to enter the herd immunity debate. Why has Sweden become synonymous with herd immunity in the public sphere? It seems to be too early for anyone to be calling their strategy the reason for low infection levels today..

My city has 3000 deaths from a population of 8 million. It is not hugely dissimilar to Sweden in Covid stats.

 

[Wibble]

I am confused about something. Sweden has 6000 deaths with a population of 10 million. Assuming 1% IFR would imply 5% of the population have been infected which is too low to enter the herd immunity debate. Why has Sweden become synonymous with herd immunity in the public sphere? It seems to be too early for anyone to be calling their strategy the reason for low infection levels today..

My city has 3000 deaths from a population of 8 million. It is not hugely dissimilar to Sweden in Covid stats.

However many infections they have had they are nowhere near HIT. Any suggestion that they are is delusional.

I am still a bit surprised that Sweden is held out as a success story when their death rate per 100k of population is close to that of the UK and their GDP has contracted more than their neighbors and more than Australia (7% vs 8.3% GDP prop and a death rate nearly 17 times worse) who took a very different health based approach. The only way I can see that Sweden will be a "success" is if we don't get a vaccine at all and then they would be 5-10% ahead of countries like Australia, NZ and Taiwan on the very painful and rocky road to eventually/maybe getting herd immunity by natural infection.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

The “success” has been managing the virus in a calm manner whilst not having to resort to methods you’d associate with an authoritarian regime. I thought that much was obvious by now.
No-one anywhere is claiming they are a “success” across the board.
A democracy like Australia acting like a communist state yet having a death toll 34 times higher than their neighbour NZ certainly aint a success, so what really constitutes “success“ in a pandemic?

 

[finneh]

@Pogue Mahone

I'm ignorant on the subject of comparative testing, for example between the UK and Germany. The figures show the UK has 337k tests per 1m people (largest of any country with a population over 10m), whereas Germany has 187k.

How can the UK be testing nearly twice the volume per capita but at the same time it seems to be hugely problematic whereas Germany seems to be doing well and is hailed?

 

[zing]

The “success” has been managing the virus in a calm manner whilst not having to resort to methods you’d associate with an authoritarian regime. I thought that much was obvious by now.
A democracy like Australia acting like a communist state yet having a death toll 34 times higher than their neighbour NZ certainly aint a success, so what really constitutes “success“ in a pandemic?

I think no one really knows the truth of what 'success' looks like till this whole thing fully plays out. It's just strange of you to be so dogmatic on a topic on which no one knows the quantitative truth of balancing death, lockdowns and economic impact. A lack of a lockdown does not automatically translate into economic growth as people's behaviours are still affected by the pandemic. Without a much longer term view, none of us know what the better strategy would have been.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

I think no one really knows the truth of what 'success' looks like till this whole thing fully plays out.

That was my point.
I agree with you.

Where Wibbs trips up is that he only looks at one side of the coin when considering what constitutes “success”, the death toll.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

@Pogue Mahone

I'm ignorant on the subject of comparative testing, for example between the UK and Germany. The figures show the UK has 337k tests per 1m people (largest of any country with a population over 10m), whereas Germany has 187k.

How can the UK be testing nearly twice the volume per capita but at the same time it seems to be hugely problematic whereas Germany seems to be doing well and is hailed?

I’m really confused by that too. As per a tweet higher up the page, Germany has set up walk-in testing centres at train stations where the staff encourage commuters to have a test if they can spare the time. No queues. Results on the same day, via the covid app everyone has on their phone. Meanwhile in the Uk people are being asked to drive hours from their home because the testing system is so overwhelmed.

Mind you, the UK has twice as many cases per capita than Germany. So maybe it’s doing so many more tests because it has to? And it’s possible/likely that there are more than twice as many cases per capita, as we know they could/should be testing even more than they are (6 times as many deaths/million than Germany)

 

[finneh]

I’m really confused by that too. As per a tweet higher up the page, Germany has set up walk-in testing centres at train stations where the staff encourage commuters to have a test if they can spare the time. No queues. Results on the same day, via the covid app everyone has on their phone. Meanwhile in the Uk people are being asked to drive hours from their home because the testing system is so overwhelmed.

Mind you, the UK has twice as many cases per capita than Germany. So maybe it’s doing so many more tests because it has to? And it’s possible/likely that there are more than twice as many cases per capita, as we know they could/should be testing even more than they are.

This is true but is only a recent development. 2-3 weeks ago for example both countries were at around 2000 cases per day with the UK having a greater number of daily tests.

I wonder whether to a degree it plays into the study that showed the UK populace as one of the most fearful of the virus? The more terrified a country is the more I could see the population wanting to be tested for the mildest of symptoms or even wanting to be tested simply because a contact is showing mild symptoms.

It would be interesting if countries monitored how many tests were being requested on a daily basis. For example whether at a similar level of community infection whether 1% of the UK population were requesting a test every day vs 0.2% of the German/Swedish etc population (the latter less than half the tests per capita).

If that were the case then it would be somewhat obvious that Germans or Swedes would be in a position to get tested on demand, whereas in the UK it would be more challenging.

 

[redshaw]

France posted 16k cases and 52 deaths yesterday. Spain still around 10k per day with over 700 deaths in the last 7 seven days, so 100 deaths a day on average.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

This is true but is only a recent development. 2-3 weeks ago for example both countries were at around 2000 cases per day with the UK having a greater number of daily tests.

I wonder whether to a degree it plays into the study that showed the UK populace as one of the most fearful of the virus? The more terrified a country is the more I could see the population wanting to be tested for the mildest of symptoms or even wanting to be tested simply because a contact is showing mild symptoms.

It would be interesting if countries monitored how many tests were being requested on a daily basis. For example whether at a similar level of community infection whether 1% of the UK population were requesting a test every day vs 0.2% of the German/Swedish etc population (the latter less than half the tests per capita).

If that were the case then it would be somewhat obvious that Germans or Swedes would be in a position to get tested on demand, whereas in the UK it would be more challenging.

You could get a test same day from numerous locations where I am (Greater Manchester) until it started kicking off again a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

This is true but is only a recent development. 2-3 weeks ago for example both countries were at around 2000 cases per day with the UK having a greater number of daily tests.

I wonder whether to a degree it plays into the study that showed the UK populace as one of the most fearful of the virus? The more terrified a country is the more I could see the population wanting to be tested for the mildest of symptoms or even wanting to be tested simply because a contact is showing mild symptoms.

It would be interesting if countries monitored how many tests were being requested on a daily basis. For example whether at a similar level of community infection whether 1% of the UK population were requesting a test every day vs 0.2% of the German/Swedish etc population (the latter less than half the tests per capita).

If that were the case then it would be somewhat obvious that Germans or Swedes would be in a position to get tested on demand, whereas in the UK it would be more challenging.

The stats don’t back up your fearful population theory at all. If the Uk was over-testing it would have a tiny % of positive results. Instead they’re considerably higher than Germany.

Combine this with the data published yesterday, showing 18% compliance with quarantine and 11% compliance with self-isolation after positive test (might have got those figures the wrong way round) and it looks like the UK population have been behaving in a way that is literally the exact opposite of what you’re claiming. They’ve not been fearful and compliant, they’ve been blasé and reckless. And they’re paying the price.