SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

11101

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Milan is talking about closing down again as cases broke back through 1,000 per day, though 92% of positive tests have no symptoms.
 

Josep Dowling

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We got back to Italy last week, but our town in NW England has been included in the Liverpool City measures along with the whole of the local authority of Sefton. This despite the fact that we're 15 miles away, it's a small seaside town and has absolutely none of the issues they're struggling with in Liverpool.

Unless decisions are made more locally in the actual hotspots, these measures will never work. If they stopped people moving out of their city or town boundary, except for work, medical reasons or other personal emergencies, things could be controlled. This is where Italy did well as we were prevented from travelling at all, and that restriction was only very gradually relaxed - first we could leave our village and travel within our province, then we could travel within our region, and only at a late stage in the first wave was free travel permitted.

Of course, this requires policing which also hasn't worked in the UK. When the police in England were breaking up large groups in the summer who were sitting in the park, they should have been giving a fixed penalty ticket to everyone in those groups. The police don't give you a free pass here, it's a fine straight away.
So you just got back from Italy but you’re advocating restrictions on travel to local areas only? Makes sense. This is part of the problem. Most people are completely hypocritical on how to combat this issue. Do as I say not what I do.
 

Brwned

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Derry has a significantly sized Uni for a city the size of Derry
Aye but the premise of unis having had such a big impact is two-fold: huge numbers of people in one place partying, and them coming from far and wide and importing more cases into the area. On a relative basis that's quite a lot of people partying but in absolute numbers it doesn't have those huge, festival-like crowds, and I don't think folks are coming into Derry from far and wide. Absolutely it should have an impact but you wouldn't think it would be a similar impact to e.g. Manchester.

Disgusting. It's baffling that they can convince people they're worth that much at the proposal stage, when it's just repackaging what exists on the market and charging extortionate prices, but the fact they're doubling down when the results on such a critical project have been so poor is absolutely shocking. Anyone ok with management consultants exploiting a pandemic to deliver below par results for prices well beyond what actual experts in the fields would charge is off their rocker.
 

Penna

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So you just got back from Italy but you’re advocating restrictions on travel to local areas only? Makes sense. This is part of the problem. Most people are completely hypocritical on how to combat this issue. Do as I say not what I do.
We live in Italy, that's where we're resident. We had to visit England, it wasn't a holiday - my husband never left the flat.

I don't quite know what you're saying - I followed all the (extremely strict) rules here in Italy, I followed them in England and I had a negative test on our return to Italy. My issue is with the way rules aren't enforced in the UK. It's pathetic, really. People need to stay in their local areas if the rates in that area are high.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Not really. If kids are less likely to show symptoms they are also less likely to be tested. It’s a deliberately vague statement.
The positivity rate is the best way to get an idea about how many cases are not being picked up by testing (e.g. asymptomatic cases) The higher the positivity rate in people we do test, the more likely it is we're missing cases in people who don't get a test. These data clearly contradict the notion that the virus is running rife in schools. If anything, it seems less prevalent in schools than in the community.

I'd like to know if he's talking about primary or secondary schools. We've known for a while that younger kids are not only less likely to get sick, they're less likely to contract the virus. So these data make sense for this age group. They're a little counter-intuitive for teenagers, though. When it seems as though they should be getting infected in fairly large numbers.
 

acnumber9

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The positivity rate is the best way to get an idea about how many cases are not being picked up by testing (e.g. asymptomatic cases) The higher the positivity rate in people we do test, the more likely it is we're missing cases in people who don't get a test. These data clearly contradict the notion that the virus is running rife in schools. If anything, it seems less prevalent in schools than in the community.

I'd like to know if he's talking about primary or secondary schools. We've known for a while that younger kids are not only less likely to get sick, they're less likely to contract the virus. So these data make sense for this age group. They're a little counter-intuitive for teenagers, though. When it seems as though they're getting infected in fairly large numbers.
It’s still a headline figure that ignores any context. As you say yourself, we don’t know if it includes primary and secondary schools, we don’t know the total figures for testing and from reading some of the responses to the tweets they have different criteria for what constitutes a close contact in schools. So kids who have caught it at school but are tested at home aren’t included are they?

It really doesn’t show anything without a lot more data. And they know that.
 

golden_blunder

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Disgusting. It's baffling that they can convince people they're worth that much at the proposal stage, when it's just repackaging what exists on the market and charging extortionate prices, but the fact they're doubling down when the results on such a critical project have been so poor is absolutely shocking. Anyone ok with management consultants exploiting a pandemic to deliver below par results for prices well beyond what actual experts in the fields would charge is off their rocker.
To an extent I agree. However Derry is a party town, there’s a big pub scene (though they should in theory be controlling the numbers in). Also take into account there’s a huge movement of people for shopping and socialising between Derry and Donegal, especially letterkenny.
 

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I think I've been resigned to the idea we'll be living with this from now on for a while. It's about finding ways to live with it that allows people to live normal lives and minimises the amount of people it kills.

50% effectiveness sounds rubbish but actually that's a potential game changer. If you can give a majority of vulnerable people a vaccine that gives them a 50% chance of being immune to the virus then you can imagine the difference that makes. If you can find a way to give that vaccine to a majority of people in general, then even the vulnerable people who the vaccine doesn't work for will be far less likely to catch it off someone else in the first place.

If you couple that with treatments and preperation getting better, and the hope (admittedly that's what it is at the moment) the virus will become less dangerous, then you are into the realms of being able to let people function and live out their lives without covid being a factor at every single corner.

I think my bigger scepticism with vaccines is how effectively they'll be distributed and how willing people will be to have them. Longer term carrying on as things have been this year will go out of the window one way or another, so it's all about bringing down the risk factor to normal day to day life I think. The idea of getting rid of the virus as a threat completely doesn't really add up to me. If people can catch it, recover and then catch it again it's unlikely to go away.
This is all assuming the vaccine stops you getting COVID full stop. Lot of talk that the vaccine will just stop the symptoms being as bad, and you will still be infectious, which isn’t great for the people who it doesn’t work for
 

Adamsk7

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We’re never gonna bring cases down while we have so many idiots playing with other people’s lives - my partner came home today and told me her boss, who has just returned from hospital, has a cough. Apparently she doesn’t have it because “I was tested when I was in hospital”.....I mean it’s not like she could have caught it there and brought it home.....honestly some people have zero sense.
My partner said she felt like she couldn’t discuss it with her and I was like “well you’re risking everyone’s lives by not”.

honestly sometimes I feel like I’m the one that’s mad and all these people making, in my eyes, crazy decisions must be right!
 

DavidDeSchmikes

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Absolutely, they’ve been softening the public up for weeks.
No coincidence a YouGov poll says most of the public back a lockdown, a poll which is then shared by journalists. Combine that with Whitty saying he current measures don't go far enough and this week is basically preparation for the lockdown. I predict either this Friday or mid next week
 

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Nottingham has hit over 1000 cases per 100k people in 7 days in the latest data, NI still the highest region in terms of cases per 100k

Test return rates now up to 3.9 days, backlog of processing due to capacity being reached in labs and demand for testing increased. I can see this becoming a big discussion point politically next week if the return days trend past 4 days.

 

Pogue Mahone

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No visitors from other households allowed in Ireland from tomorrow night. Every time they make up a framework of measures they rip it up and start again. This is going to piss people off. In a way, I think they would be better off not publishing these road maps to begin with.
 

BD

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No visitors from other households allowed in Ireland from tomorrow night. Every time they make up a framework of measures they rip it up and start again. This is going to piss people off. In a way, I think they would be better off not publishing these road maps to begin with.
Yeah it's not great. I'm not in Ireland these days, but was speaking to my parents today and I can imagine this news will be shite to them. Back to not being able to visit their grandchildren and generally not having much to look forward to. It's grim, and I can imagine this won't go down too well in Ireland? As I said, I'm not there so I don't have a good feeling of how people may react, other than my family and a few friends still there.
 

christy87

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No visitors from other households allowed in Ireland from tomorrow night. Every time they make up a framework of measures they rip it up and start again. This is going to piss people off. In a way, I think they would be better off not publishing these road maps to begin with.
Yeah it's getting annoying now, we're level 3 in this level 4 in that and level 5 in this other thing, the point of the guidelines was to give us light at the end of the tunnel, but if they are going to pick and choose which levels we are on with different subjects, its going to cause confusion and angst.
 

jymufc20

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I haven't had much time to read everything that's going on this week due to working nights so can anyone help me with this, is this circuit break they are talking about going to be like the lockdown in march non essential workplaces stayed open or will they be closing everywhere that is non essential ?
 

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I haven't had much time to read everything that's going on this week due to working nights so can anyone help me with this, is this circuit break they are talking about going to be like the lockdown in march non essential workplaces stayed open or will they be closing everywhere that is non essential ?
My expectation would be that work, retail, and schools will remain open. Socialising settings, mixing households, and non-essential travel is what they’ll focus on restricting.

I don’t think we’ll ever have what we saw in March again.
 

Bosws87

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This is over can argue all day until your blue in the face the public have lost trust even if a lockdown was forced people are gonna break rank its done the seeds have been sowed.

Not sure of any great method to get out of this, but the damage is done!
 

Berbaclass

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This is over can argue all day until your blue in the face the public have lost trust even if a lockdown was forced people are gonna break rank its done the seeds have been sowed.

Not sure of any great method to get out of this, but the damage is done!
The majority of the public want a lockdown.
 

Bosws87

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The majority of the public want a lockdown.
Apart from anyone with a business affected by said lockdown.

The only lockdown we are getting is one where workplaces stay open bar hospitality, but schools and universities would still be open (maybe half term break if its planned correctly) which means we are never going to get infections as low as the proper lockdown realistically right.

Then someone (very naive) is going to tell me it gives us a chance to get on top of it with track and trace (which is an absolute shambles) so that's not gonna work either then in an even shorter period of time from this "circuit breaker" we are going to be back in this situation again rinse and repeat.

Just with more unemployed as their businesses have been destroyed and Christmas fast approaching in total disarray.

Impossible to win situation, made even worse by idiots in charge.

This is of course ignoring the elephant in the room looming over us which is also brexit.

It's a disaster on so many fronts what do you do?

This is also ignoring the fact the clocks go back so you wake up in darkness come home in darkness to add to the pleasure and peoples great mental state.
 
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Pogue Mahone

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Yeah it's not great. I'm not in Ireland these days, but was speaking to my parents today and I can imagine this news will be shite to them. Back to not being able to visit their grandchildren and generally not having much to look forward to. It's grim, and I can imagine this won't go down too well in Ireland? As I said, I'm not there so I don't have a good feeling of how people may react, other than my family and a few friends still there.
Yeah it's getting annoying now, we're level 3 in this level 4 in that and level 5 in this other thing, the point of the guidelines was to give us light at the end of the tunnel, but if they are going to pick and choose which levels we are on with different subjects, its going to cause confusion and angst.
It’s confusing and annoying but you can see the logic behind it. They’re doing everything possible to keep small businesses open, while clamping down on everything else. Which is ok by me. I have friends whose hearts are breaking with the stress and uncertainty of trying to keep their businesses afloat. I just think the government just come out and say that’s the priority. People would probably accept it. Even though Sinn Féin would have a fecking field day.

Keeping schools open seems to divide the most opinions (basically between people with kids and those without) but as @noodlehair pointed out during the first lockdown we need to remember that school can be a lifeline for vulnerable kids with shit lives at home. So I think keeping them open should be high up our list of priorities as a society.
 
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Port Vale Devil

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The majority of the public want a lockdown.
I don’t believe that for a second. Maybe some polls are saying that but people have had enough of all the disgraceful behaviour from our government and our fellow citizens.

We lock ourselves up while the idiots carry on like nothing is happening then they expect people to not have their grandchildren over to stay perhaps even over Christmas. Not dishing out heavy fines at the outset and giving the likes of Cummings a free pass just piss people off who have abided by the laws.
 

Berbaclass

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I don’t believe that for a second. Maybe some polls are saying that but people have had enough of all the disgraceful behaviour from our government and our fellow citizens.

We lock ourselves up while the idiots carry on like nothing is happening then they expect people to not have their grandchildren over to stay perhaps even over Christmas. Not dishing out heavy fines at the outset and giving the likes of Cummings a free pass just piss people off who have abided by the laws.
They've had enough of bad decision making. All the evidence is pointing to a lockdown of some sort being the best way forward and as you said polls have shown support for it.
 

Port Vale Devil

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They've had enough of bad decision making. All the evidence is pointing to a lockdown of some sort being the best way forward and as you said polls have shown support for it.
The idiots will still not abide by the laws and nothing will happen to them whatsoever. Until the government crackdown on people where it hurts they are just kicking the can down the road.

People are sick to the back teeth of keeping inside, not seeing families while the government feck things up again. Look over the road and see a party going on then expect yourself to be away from loved ones.

It won’t wash again I’m afraid and the government and ourselves are to blame.