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SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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Looks like the UK have followed a similar trajectory to Ireland: held off on putting in harsh restrictions to begin with, watched cases soar for the next couple of weeks, and then by the time they put in the harsh restrictions the previous restrictions had started taking an impact and things have levelled off. Not exactly what the politicians were aiming for but might end up "crushing" the curve above and beyond what they were aiming for. In the first two weeks of October the UK went from 8k to around 16k on the 7-day average, in the last two weeks they've went from 21k to 22k. Ireland went from ~ 500 on the 7th to ~1,200 on the 21st October, back down to under 500 now.
Good news in terms of bringing things back under a bit of control in the short-term, with seemingly more good news to look forward to in the long-term
Good news in terms of bringing things back under a bit of control in the short-term, with seemingly more good news to look forward to in the long-term
It's a good week!
Did we already all get excited about this nasal spray thing? It's only ferrets so far, but if it works in people, something you can send anywhere in the world freeze-dried, mix with a bit of water, and protect people from Covid through something no more difficult than your hayfever medicine seems great.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/health/coronavirus-ferrets-vaccine-spray.html
Did we already all get excited about this nasal spray thing? It's only ferrets so far, but if it works in people, something you can send anywhere in the world freeze-dried, mix with a bit of water, and protect people from Covid through something no more difficult than your hayfever medicine seems great.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/health/coronavirus-ferrets-vaccine-spray.html
Was going to ask that exact question! Not been following numbers closely but looks like the UK caseload levelled out before the lockdown even started? Great if so. Wonder why that isn’t happening elsewhere in Europe? Maybe advantage of being an island finally kicking in?!Looks like the UK have followed a similar trajectory to Ireland: held off on putting in harsh restrictions to begin with, watched cases soar for the next couple of weeks, and then by the time they put in the harsh restrictions the previous restrictions had started taking an impact and things have levelled off. Not exactly what the politicians were aiming for but might end up "crushing" the curve above and beyond what they were aiming for.
Good news in terms of bringing things back under a bit of control in the short-term, with seemingly more good news to look forward to in the long-term
RIP to the Danish mink denied access to this wonder drug
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Yeah good question! I'd not looked elsewhere so I'd hopefully assumed that was just happening everywhere. France still looking pretty grim based on Saturday's figures so that's a bit of a head-scratcher. Looks like Italy might be doing similarly? Your guess is as good as mine!
I think it's partly the balance between different areas. Look at the interactive map here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map for the difference between last week and this week. Around Liverpool and Lancashire, cases have come down sharply (probably due to going into T3 early) but the rest of the country still seems to be trending worse.Looks like the UK have followed a similar trajectory to Ireland: held off on putting in harsh restrictions to begin with, watched cases soar for the next couple of weeks, and then by the time they put in the harsh restrictions the previous restrictions had started taking an impact and things have levelled off. Not exactly what the politicians were aiming for but might end up "crushing" the curve above and beyond what they were aiming for. In the first two weeks of October the UK went from 8k to around 16k on the 7-day average, in the last two weeks they've went from 21k to 22k. Ireland went from ~ 500 on the 7th to ~1,200 on the 21st October, back down to under 500 now.
Good news in terms of bringing things back under a bit of control in the short-term, with seemingly more good news to look forward to in the long-term
Friday and Saturday are always huge numbers in Italy. You have to look on a rolling 7 day basis to get a truer picture.
Since the schools went back and all hell broke loose again there have been no further restrictions until last week. It will be a little while before it starts to have an effect.
Still good news I'd say! If you look at places like London or the North East, things are still a lot higher than they were at the beginning of September, but things are levelling off a bit. Along with tackling the rapid spread in the North West, I think that's something to be happy about! We know it's spread around the country more than you'd want, so the national measures will help in that sense.
At the same time the other national measures have been successful: Wales and Northern Ireland falling continuously, Scotland on the way down a bit slower. So there's parts of the South that are still going the wrong direction but not with the same concerns about overwhelmed health systems in the North West a while back, and they're being attacked a bit earlier in the curve this time round. Won't be long before the complaints of the UK not finding the right balance start cropping up again, I reckon.
That's all very fair. Really, it's a relief to see that stringent measures have resulted in a strong turnaround. Let's hope that by December all the intensive care docs are sat around twiddling their thumbs with the lack of covid and flu patients.
Maybe even give them the beds to snooze on!
I do think that's one part of the conversation that gets left out quite a lot. The focus is on not taking the NHS to its capacity, and if you've done that, you've succeeded. But the amount of work they're getting through when things are anywhere near the limit is pretty absurd. We just take it for granted that "that's what they signed up for", but really, it's not. Never mind what they're taking home with them, whenever they manage to get home. Can't imagine what the folks in Belgium are going through.
Although it's not deliberate, I do think it shows a basic lack of respect for the NHS staff to just say "as long as they're not on the edge, we should open things back up so I can get on with my life". For the NHS staff who dealt with local peaks pushing the to the limit, it'll be a defining point of their career, and not a very pleasant one. A lot were close to breaking point before the pandemic hit. I really do hope we follow through on plans to invest a bit more in the NHS, and properly reward those people. It'd be a bit tragic if we get a vaccine and most people go back to not paying any attention to them.
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I was listening on the radio last week, that they think that might be because of half term.
Wouldn't storage requirements be more stringent for a protein (antigen) rather than RNA vaccine?
This is a Tory government, don’t count on it!
Quite possibly. Although in Ireland we plateau’s before half term. When did UK kids go back to school?
Don’t the RNA vaccines use a viral vector? Maybe that’s why they need to be kept so cold?
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Half term ended last Monday.
I think they were also comparing the effectiveness of the lockdown in NI and Wales. The one in NI was allegedly more effective because it was at the same time as half term.
But I don't have the numbers to compare
In the North West they started their decline from a 4,760 per day (7-day average) on 20th October to sub-4000 now. Half-term started on Monday 26th in e.g. Liverpool. London started to plateau around the same time, North East was a few weeks' earlier. Overall the UK more or less plateaued on the 20th, but there's different regional stories.
Think they're conflating two different stories. Closing schools would have an impact on top but whether it was the cause of the stabilisation is the main story. Given it started before half-term nationally, that seems unlikely.
That's quite the statement. Science still amazes me to this day.
Oh probably yes, totally blanked. I was just thinking about protein handling vs RNA handling in the lab.
You’re way more expert at this stuff than I am, that’s for sure! The whole RNA vaccine stuff is amazing when you think about it. So futuristic.
A lot of talk about people refusing to get a vaccine or distribution taking it's time but if a high majority of the elderly and vulnerable get it then won't that be enough to practically end this as a pandemic that requires lockdowns and SD etc or have i missed something stupidly obvious?
Well, there are possibly billions of people in the danger demographic (above 45? Underlying conditions under 45?). Production is estimated at ~6.4 billlion a year (for current flu vaccine), iinm. And a lot of the vaccines being tested require 2 or more doses. So even that will take some time. And not to mention there are still numerous cases of younger people needing medical treatment or dying. And on top of that, there are also lots of indications of long term damage to survivors of even asymptomatic cases. And there is also the concern of mutation. So we will still need the next 6 months, at least, to vaccinate the first wave of countries, presumably mostly the major world powers. Then the rest of the world in the subsequent waves.
Clutch month.
@Pogue Mahone and other brainy folks...
How much would Trumps treatment cost? Ballpark figure. Ignore hospital fees, but a pure drug price at top dollar.
How much would Trumps treatment cost? Ballpark figure. Ignore hospital fees, but a pure drug price at top dollar.
Which one?
Dexamethasone costs pennies. Remdisivir about three grand and the Regeneron drug won’t have a price yet. Likely to be a lot though. Monoclonal Ab’s tend to be expensive.
Ballpark on ‘A lot’?
Ignoring the fact that nobody would get the same price, if someone paid you £500 to source the cocktail that he got, what’s the flat price of those treatments?
£ or $ or € would be appreciated. It’s all hypothetical but I’m interested.
Most of the monoclonals developed to date are for conditions that require multiple doses and typically come out at around $100k/year (range from about $15k - $250k).
The covid ones are seen as one shots so maybe $10k/$20k if it existed as a released produced (though of course you can't just buy it right now - so $100k + bribes etc)? However if they were produced in quantity (which they would be if they were to become a standard early covid treatment) then the price would fall fast - maybe sub $1k within a matter of months.
Drug pricing is based around what the market will pay. Always many multiples of cost of goods. The rationale being they need to recoup development costs (ballpark $1b per drug, factoring in all the failures)
Pricing a covid treatment will get insanely political. Have absolutely no idea what sort of price point they’ll go for. A lot will depend on the size of the market. If reserved for the sickest patients only will be way more expensive than if it is licensed for mild/moderate cases.
Never mind vaccines
MOUTHWASH is where it’s at! the virus* AND have great smelling breath
https://www.derryjournal.com/health...-covid-and-may-help-stop-it-spreading-3029729
*unproven
MOUTHWASH is where it’s at! the virus* AND have great smelling breath
https://www.derryjournal.com/health...-covid-and-may-help-stop-it-spreading-3029729
*unproven
UK records 194 COVID-related deaths in latest daily figures
Cheers. Yours and the post above helped.
My friend used to work at NICE and drug cost vs benefit was scary at times. Knowing a little more detail is really helpful.
Probably a bit late to this but I'd be careful with the amount of strain you put yourself under mate, myself and a couple of family members got our sense of smell back before feeling completely symptom free, then within a day feeling like we were hit by a train. We seem to have had similar symptoms to you, although your timetable is massively accelerated.
A couple of days of doing very little might be in order - imagine someone with a cold sneezed on you, expect and prepare to get ill, then just be happy if you don't.
Yeh so I’ve been told by a few people. I’ve done nothing today (Day 6). Was fine up until 5ish. Feel knackered.
All here for you and thinking about you bud
I know that from my work, that UNICEF are leading the procurement and distribution of the vaccines in developing countries.
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