SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Tibs

Full Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2007
Messages
12,821
Location
Gtr. Manchester
Does the decrease in time between 1st and 2nd jabs delay the under 40s getting their first one given there is only a finite supply?

By the time June 21st comes nobody will be paying attention to restrictions anyway so they are deluded if they think anyone would listen if they delay the grand reopening.
Looking at the info I've seen (all from this thread in fairness, and the tone/whats being said today, I fully expect June 21st plans to be delayed by a month...masks and distancing will remain longer
 

carpy

Puff the magic dragon
Joined
Jan 6, 2007
Messages
4,393
Does the decrease in time between 1st and 2nd jabs delay the under 40s getting their first one given there is only a finite supply?

By the time June 21st comes nobody will be paying attention to restrictions anyway so they are deluded if they think anyone would listen if they delay the grand reopening.
It shouldn't have much impact because most over 50s had Astrazeneca for the first dose and the under 40s will be having Pfizer/Moderna.
 

Garethw

scored 25-30 goals a season as a right footed RW
Joined
Feb 7, 2005
Messages
14,943
Location
England:
I expect UK infection numbers to explode. You can’t tell me that families haven’t been getting together for Eid.
 

Mickeza

still gets no respect
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Messages
4,784
Location
Deepthroating information to Howard Nurse.
There’s no way he’s announced June could be delayed if June wasn’t going to be delayed. They already know it’s more transmissible in my opinion. Delaying India going on the red list because Boris still wanted to travel there for a trade deal was a shit idea - who could have known? You have to just hold your head in your hands as Glasgow bans people leaving the area to try and stop the spread yet we did feck all when it was 5000 miles away.
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

Full Member
Joined
Jul 10, 2013
Messages
12,083
My take on what they said:

Indian Variant is on the up in the UK, especially some NW areas...at present, not enough to stop the May 17th step.

It seems possible that that the June 21st opening could be delayed...

12 weeks gap between doses cut to 8 weeks.
I suspected originally that 21 June was never going to be full lifting of restrictions - he just said that to keep morale up with the elections coming - of course, he waited till after the elections to say this
 

Garethw

scored 25-30 goals a season as a right footed RW
Joined
Feb 7, 2005
Messages
14,943
Location
England:
Some reports are suggesting that this Indian variant could be 60% more transmissible than the Kent Variant. We are in for a pretty grim summer if that’s true.
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
8,769
Location
Cheshire
Some reports are suggesting that this Indian variant could be 60% more transmissible than the Kent Variant. We are in for a pretty grim summer if that’s true.
Why? Most, if not all, will have had their first dose by the end of June. Reduction in hospitalisation is a clear trend from the data earlier this year.
 

groovyalbert

it's a mute point
Joined
Feb 14, 2013
Messages
5,391
Location
London
Even with the higher transmissibility, surely having our most vulnerable fully vaccinated should provide a barrier to the NHS being overloaded? Or am I grasping at straws?
 

Mickeza

still gets no respect
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Messages
4,784
Location
Deepthroating information to Howard Nurse.
Some reports are suggesting that this Indian variant could be 60% more transmissible than the Kent Variant. We are in for a pretty grim summer if that’s true.
SAGE are saying at least 50% based on known data BUT important to caveat they don’t know number of imported cases and whether the communities it is currently spreading in would translate across the country. Minutes below but it does make very grim reading.

 

Sparky Rhiwabon

Full Member
Joined
Jul 10, 2013
Messages
12,083
Some reports are suggesting that this Indian variant could be 60% more transmissible than the Kent Variant. We are in for a pretty grim summer if that’s true.
Does it really matter if most are vaccinated?
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
108,654
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Even the best vaccines used against the least resistant variants will result in a spike in cases as society opens up again. So a significant increase in transmissibility could move the needle enough to cause a big wave. That’s the concern anyway. And if this is also partially vaccine resistant (which seems likely) then the prognosis looks worse.

It’s not a doomsday scenario though. Just means the current restrictions will need to stay in place longer.
 

RonaldoVII

Full Member
Joined
Aug 29, 2008
Messages
21,944
Location
PSN:FrozenInHell
Does it really matter if most are vaccinated?
Exactly. Reduction in deaths, hospitalisations, illness and transmission from the vaccine. Those who won't be vaccinated will likely be by choice or young enough to not be affected/care. I know not everyone who gets vaccinated is fully protected but can't shield everyone forever to protect a very small minority.
 

zing

Zingle balls
Joined
Oct 19, 2005
Messages
12,338
Exactly. Reduction in deaths, hospitalisations, illness and transmission from the vaccine. Those who won't be vaccinated will likely be by choice or young enough to not be affected/care. I know not everyone who gets vaccinated is fully protected but can't shield everyone forever to protect a very small minority.
I think there's no data on this yet but anecdotally I know a crazy number of young people with severe illness here in India. I have a good friend/work colleague mid 30s who is probably not going to make it, he is in intensive care..

I hope we get some data that shows that it's just a function of so many infections that young people with severe illness seems more common. The data in India is sketchy and we don't really know much yet.
 

Dumbstar

Full Member
Joined
Jul 18, 2002
Messages
16,637
Location
Viva Karius!
Supports
Liverpool
I think there's no data on this yet but anecdotally I know a crazy number of young people with severe illness here in India. I have a good friend/work colleague mid 30s who is probably not going to make it, he is in intensive care..

I hope we get some data that shows that it's just a function of so many infections that young people with severe illness seems more common. The data in India is sketchy and we don't really know much yet.
Aren't South Asians more susceptible anyway due to our diabetes/cholesterol/BP?
 

Bosws87

Full Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2015
Messages
1,154
Think its a stretch to compare India's infrastructure and quality of life/Health Care to the UK.

Never mind the vast amount of people difference, just have to wait and see.
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
8,769
Location
Cheshire
Minimal data out there, but this is interesting from the FT on the Indian variant and the impact of speeding up their vaccination programme for the over 60s.

 

MDFC Manager

Full Member
Joined
Dec 26, 2005
Messages
18,227
Minimal data out there, but this is interesting from the FT on the Indian variant and the impact of speeding up their vaccination programme for the over 60s.

You've mentioned the problem - minimal data. We're barely doing any sequencing to find out which strains are dominating in which regions.
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
108,654
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
I think there's no data on this yet but anecdotally I know a crazy number of young people with severe illness here in India. I have a good friend/work colleague mid 30s who is probably not going to make it, he is in intensive care..

I hope we get some data that shows that it's just a function of so many infections that young people with severe illness seems more common. The data in India is sketchy and we don't really know much yet.
That will definitely happen. Even if only 1 in 1000 healthy young people end up in ICU when you have uncontrolled exponential spread you can quickly end up with hundreds of thousands infected and hundreds of ICU beds full of people you wouldn’t expect to be severely affected.
 

FootballHQ

Full Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Messages
13,322
Supports
Aston Villa
Sure I read the other day the Kent virus had all but died out now and was no longer considered a threat by scientists, that surely is at least promising given how deadly it was in general circulation less than six months back and we were in depths of winter with little vaccinated in those times.

Or was that the South African variant, I lose track with all the ones declared.

As Whitty said in the press conference just have to see the state of play at end of May to properly draw conclusions.
 

Giant Midget

Aka - rooney_10119
Joined
Aug 2, 2008
Messages
4,454
Sure I read the other day the Kent virus had all but died out now and was no longer considered a threat by scientists, that surely is at least promising given how deadly it was in general circulation less than six months back and we were in depths of winter with little vaccinated in those times.

Or was that the South African variant, I lose track with all the ones declared.

As Whitty said in the press conference just have to see the state of play at end of May to properly draw conclusions.
The Kent variant is the dominant strain in the UK, certainly hasn't died out.
 

VP89

Pogba's biggest fan
Joined
Dec 6, 2015
Messages
18,758
I know I am being optimistic here, but my hope is that the Indian variant impact in the UK is not as large because of our vaccine numbers. I fully anticipate a rise but so long as it's among the unvaccinated, there is some comfort that the vaccine roll-out can continue in effectiveness and spread can really be controlled. The data in the UK suggested it's mostly among younger people who aren't yet vaccinated.
 

FootballHQ

Full Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Messages
13,322
Supports
Aston Villa

golden_blunder

Site admin. Manchester United fan
Staff
Joined
Jun 1, 2000
Messages
100,477
Location
Dublin, Ireland

decorativeed

Full Member
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
Messages
10,121
Location
Tameside
I expect UK infection numbers to explode. You can’t tell me that families haven’t been getting together for Eid.
They definitely were in my neighbourhood last year, but there didn't seem to be any uptick. You'd hope that with vaccination in the mix the same would be true this year.