SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Garethw

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Some reports are suggesting that this Indian variant could be 60% more transmissible than the Kent Variant. We are in for a pretty grim summer if that’s true.
 

F-Red

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Some reports are suggesting that this Indian variant could be 60% more transmissible than the Kent Variant. We are in for a pretty grim summer if that’s true.
Why? Most, if not all, will have had their first dose by the end of June. Reduction in hospitalisation is a clear trend from the data earlier this year.
 

groovyalbert

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Even with the higher transmissibility, surely having our most vulnerable fully vaccinated should provide a barrier to the NHS being overloaded? Or am I grasping at straws?
 

Mickeza

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Deepthroating information to Howard Nurse.
Some reports are suggesting that this Indian variant could be 60% more transmissible than the Kent Variant. We are in for a pretty grim summer if that’s true.
SAGE are saying at least 50% based on known data BUT important to caveat they don’t know number of imported cases and whether the communities it is currently spreading in would translate across the country. Minutes below but it does make very grim reading.

 

Pogue Mahone

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Even the best vaccines used against the least resistant variants will result in a spike in cases as society opens up again. So a significant increase in transmissibility could move the needle enough to cause a big wave. That’s the concern anyway. And if this is also partially vaccine resistant (which seems likely) then the prognosis looks worse.

It’s not a doomsday scenario though. Just means the current restrictions will need to stay in place longer.
 

RonaldoVII

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Does it really matter if most are vaccinated?
Exactly. Reduction in deaths, hospitalisations, illness and transmission from the vaccine. Those who won't be vaccinated will likely be by choice or young enough to not be affected/care. I know not everyone who gets vaccinated is fully protected but can't shield everyone forever to protect a very small minority.
 

zing

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Exactly. Reduction in deaths, hospitalisations, illness and transmission from the vaccine. Those who won't be vaccinated will likely be by choice or young enough to not be affected/care. I know not everyone who gets vaccinated is fully protected but can't shield everyone forever to protect a very small minority.
I think there's no data on this yet but anecdotally I know a crazy number of young people with severe illness here in India. I have a good friend/work colleague mid 30s who is probably not going to make it, he is in intensive care..

I hope we get some data that shows that it's just a function of so many infections that young people with severe illness seems more common. The data in India is sketchy and we don't really know much yet.
 

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I think there's no data on this yet but anecdotally I know a crazy number of young people with severe illness here in India. I have a good friend/work colleague mid 30s who is probably not going to make it, he is in intensive care..

I hope we get some data that shows that it's just a function of so many infections that young people with severe illness seems more common. The data in India is sketchy and we don't really know much yet.
Aren't South Asians more susceptible anyway due to our diabetes/cholesterol/BP?
 

Bosws87

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Think its a stretch to compare India's infrastructure and quality of life/Health Care to the UK.

Never mind the vast amount of people difference, just have to wait and see.
 

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Minimal data out there, but this is interesting from the FT on the Indian variant and the impact of speeding up their vaccination programme for the over 60s.

 

MDFC Manager

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Minimal data out there, but this is interesting from the FT on the Indian variant and the impact of speeding up their vaccination programme for the over 60s.

You've mentioned the problem - minimal data. We're barely doing any sequencing to find out which strains are dominating in which regions.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I think there's no data on this yet but anecdotally I know a crazy number of young people with severe illness here in India. I have a good friend/work colleague mid 30s who is probably not going to make it, he is in intensive care..

I hope we get some data that shows that it's just a function of so many infections that young people with severe illness seems more common. The data in India is sketchy and we don't really know much yet.
That will definitely happen. Even if only 1 in 1000 healthy young people end up in ICU when you have uncontrolled exponential spread you can quickly end up with hundreds of thousands infected and hundreds of ICU beds full of people you wouldn’t expect to be severely affected.
 

FootballHQ

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Sure I read the other day the Kent virus had all but died out now and was no longer considered a threat by scientists, that surely is at least promising given how deadly it was in general circulation less than six months back and we were in depths of winter with little vaccinated in those times.

Or was that the South African variant, I lose track with all the ones declared.

As Whitty said in the press conference just have to see the state of play at end of May to properly draw conclusions.
 

Giant Midget

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Sure I read the other day the Kent virus had all but died out now and was no longer considered a threat by scientists, that surely is at least promising given how deadly it was in general circulation less than six months back and we were in depths of winter with little vaccinated in those times.

Or was that the South African variant, I lose track with all the ones declared.

As Whitty said in the press conference just have to see the state of play at end of May to properly draw conclusions.
The Kent variant is the dominant strain in the UK, certainly hasn't died out.
 

VP89

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I know I am being optimistic here, but my hope is that the Indian variant impact in the UK is not as large because of our vaccine numbers. I fully anticipate a rise but so long as it's among the unvaccinated, there is some comfort that the vaccine roll-out can continue in effectiveness and spread can really be controlled. The data in the UK suggested it's mostly among younger people who aren't yet vaccinated.
 

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golden_blunder

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decorativeed

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I expect UK infection numbers to explode. You can’t tell me that families haven’t been getting together for Eid.
They definitely were in my neighbourhood last year, but there didn't seem to be any uptick. You'd hope that with vaccination in the mix the same would be true this year.
 

VP89

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St Helens, I thought after I posted that question that it might have something to do with fasting. I didn't mean any disrespect.
You weren't disrespectful at all mate, I wouldn't worry.
 

golden_blunder

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https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038

Long read. But it’s convinced me it was a lab leak. Although I’m admittedly only red the arguments in favour of it so far!
I’ve said it from the beginning that I feel the most logical conclusion is that something they were working on in a coronavirus lab in Wuhan accidentally escaped somehow. The other theory in my opinion is a cover story. I mean how could you tell the world that you are responsible for working on viruses that there was no vaccine for, and once they got out was responsible for killing millions
 

Wibble

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Get vaccinated or kill Penna you selfish bastards
I’ve said it from the beginning that I feel the most logical conclusion is that something they were working on in a coronavirus lab in Wuhan accidentally escaped somehow. The other theory in my opinion is a cover story. I mean how could you tell the world that you are responsible for working on viruses that there was no vaccine for, and once they got out was responsible for killing millions
We know for certain is wasn't genetically engineered. A naturally evolved virus and an genetically engineered one are so obviously different that they can't be mistaken for each other. The similarities to the SARS and MERS also strongly suggest that this is just another similar event.

Finally this sort of virus would also be a terrible bio-weapon.
 

golden_blunder

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We know for certain is wasn't genetically engineered. A naturally evolved virus and an genetically engineered one are so obviously different that they can't be mistaken for each other. The similarities to the SARS and MERS also strongly suggest that this is just another similar event.

Finally this sort of virus would also be a terrible bio-weapon.
I’m not saying it was made, I’m saying it was worked on.

min the Wuhan lab, which happens to work with coronavirus, which happens to be funded by one of the top scientists who denied it
 
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SalfordRed18

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St Helens, I thought after I posted that question that it might have something to do with fasting. I didn't mean any disrespect.
You weren't disrespectful, I just find it mad in the UK how in most schools things like Eid isn't taught at a young age!
 

SalfordRed18

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It probably is nowadays, but it didn't used to be.
I dunno. I'm 27, and I thought everyone my age were taught about different cultures and what not. Not until I got to uni I realised this was far from the case.
 

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We know for certain is wasn't genetically engineered. A naturally evolved virus and an genetically engineered one are so obviously different that they can't be mistaken for each other. The similarities to the SARS and MERS also strongly suggest that this is just another similar event.

Finally this sort of virus would also be a terrible bio-weapon.
Out of interest have you read the article I posted yesterday in here? It contradicts the sentence in bold - though well aware for all I know you may have more knowledge on virology than myself
 

Wibble

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Get vaccinated or kill Penna you selfish bastards
Out of interest have you read the article I posted yesterday in here? It contradicts the sentence in bold - though well aware for all I know you may have more knowledge on virology than myself
What he writes goes against what the scientific community in general, and virologists specifically, think the evidence suggests.

As a retired science journalist he writes well but he employs a trick that got his last book on human evolution slammed by the science community and all of the scientists whose work he used to allegedly support his opinion. What he does is decide on an outcome and uses snippets of information to back his predetermined opinion up. What a scientist does is the opposite. They use the evidence to form a hypothesis then test that hypothesis. Evidence builds and a synthesis of understanding builds and adapts with the evidence.

I'm not a virologist (and neither is he) but I suspect that an actual virologist would dissect his thesis very quickly.

What I read, and he avoids, is that if this were genetically engineered it would be entirely obvious to anyone who studied it. A bit like looking at a horse and another horse with a leg from a zebra grafted on. His arguments also seem highly similar to the God of the gaps approach that creationists use to try to "prove" that evolution isn't real. Avoid all the actual evidence and find some minor thing the evidence doesn't (yet) prove.

Some of his arguments are just plain silly. For example he seems to think that because we found the intermediate host for SARS and MERS the fact we don't know the intermediate host for SARS-CoV-2 yet means something dodgy has occurred. This is simply a ludicrous assertion. We still don't know the intermediate host for HIV FFS. And we aren't 100% sure that SARS was transmitted to humans by civets, likely but not 100% sure.

I think he shows his hand towards the end where he seems to head into conspiracy theory territory by blaming a cabal of self interested virologists, the Chinese and US governments with Dr Falchi specifically name checked. It is also probably telling that the only place that will publish his article is his own blog.
 
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jojojo

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Whats the deal with Ivermectin? Hearing a lot about it.
A mystery really. Loads of supposed "clinical trials" that turn out only to a have tiny numbers of participants, and no placebo group. Bigger trials (400 patients) that seen to show marginal effects like mild/moderate cases recovering a day or so earlier - particularly when it's used in conjunction with other drugs.

A couple that suggest some protection against progression to more serious disease, but when you look closer the trials don't have enough over 50s to get statistically valid data. The most dramatic trial included placebo group patients who went into hospital the day after the trial started - which is more like coincidence than evidence.

It's real enthusiasts recommend it as a preventative, taking it daily for months. Again there's a lot of anecdotal stuff on it working, but the enthusiasts are mostly young healthy adults, with an interest in health and nutrition. Again no blinded, randomised placebo group though. Just meta-analyses that compare them to groups that don't necessarily match them in terms of comorbidities or behaviours.

Personally, I don't know why people would want to take a drug daily, rather than have a vaccine. But then I don't take any drug daily, so maybe I'm the odd one.

There are some effects that on the face of it look worthy of a bigger (properly managed, broadly based, randomised, placebo controlled) trial of its use as part of a "covid lemsip" type approach for newly diagnosed patients. But so far the only trials that look like properly run drug trials have seen no statistically significant benefit. So it hasn't inspired anyone to go from hundreds of trialists to thousands.

TLDR
I have no idea why people want to take a random drug used off label without any proper evidence on efficacy.
 

golden_blunder

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What he writes goes against what the scientific community in general, and virologists specifically, think the evidence suggests.

As a retired science journalist he writes well but he employs a trick that got his last book on human evolution slammed by the science community and all of the scientists whose work he used to allegedly support his opinion. What he does is decide on an outcome and uses snippets of information to back his predetermined opinion up. What a scientist does is the opposite. They use the evidence to form a hypothesis then test that hypothesis. Evidence builds and a synthesis of understanding builds and adapts with the evidence.

I'm not a virologist (and neither is he) but I suspect that an actual virologist would dissect his thesis very quickly.

What I read, and he avoids, is that if this were genetically engineered it would be entirely obvious to anyone who studied it. A bit like looking at a horse and another horse with a leg from a zebra grafted on. His arguments also seem highly similar to the God of the gaps approach that creationists use to try to "prove" that evolution isn't real. Avoid all the actual evidence and find some minor thing the evidence doesn't (yet) prove.

Some of his arguments are just plain silly. For example he seems to think that because we found the intermediate host for SARS and MERS the fact we don't know the intermediate host for SARS-CoV-2 yet means something dodgy has occurred. This is simply a ludicrous assertion. We still don't know the intermediate host for HIV FFS. And we aren't 100% sure that SARS was transmitted to humans by civets, likely but not 100% sure.

I think he shows his hand towards the end where he seems to head into conspiracy theory territory by blaming a cabal of self interested virologists, the Chinese and US governments with Dr Falchi specifically name checked. It is also probably telling that the only place that will publish his article is his own blog.
Not disagreeing with what you wrote, just pointing out that I for example am not saying it was engineered. I’m saying they already had it in their coronavirus lab and were studying it