SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

snk123

New Member
Joined
Apr 24, 2009
Messages
2,582
A mystery really. Loads of supposed "clinical trials" that turn out only to a have tiny numbers of participants, and no placebo group. Bigger trials (400 patients) that seen to show marginal effects like mild/moderate cases recovering a day or so earlier - particularly when it's used in conjunction with other drugs.

A couple that suggest some protection against progression to more serious disease, but when you look closer the trials don't have enough over 50s to get statistically valid data. The most dramatic trial included placebo group patients who went into hospital the day after the trial started - which is more like coincidence than evidence.

It's real enthusiasts recommend it as a preventative, taking it daily for months. Again there's a lot of anecdotal stuff on it working, but the enthusiasts are mostly young healthy adults, with an interest in health and nutrition. Again no blinded, randomised placebo group though. Just meta-analyses that compare them to groups that don't necessarily match them in terms of comorbidities or behaviours.

Personally, I don't know why people would want to take a drug daily, rather than have a vaccine. But then I don't take any drug daily, so maybe I'm the odd one.

There are some effects that on the face of it look worthy of a bigger (properly managed, broadly based, randomised, placebo controlled) trial of its use as part of a "covid lemsip" type approach for newly diagnosed patients. But so far the only trials that look like properly run drug trials have seen no statistically significant benefit. So it hasn't inspired anyone to go from hundreds of trialists to thousands.

TLDR
I have no idea why people want to take a random drug used off label without any proper evidence on efficacy.
Of course there isn't a substitution for vaccine - but who are these doctors that are advocating for it's use? There are apparently doctors alliance stressing that it be approved asap. Not talking about the annoying conspiracy theorists.
 

jojojo

JoJoJoJoJoJo
Staff
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
34,144
Location
Welcome to Manchester reception committee
Of course there isn't a substitution for vaccine - but who are these doctors that are advocating for it's use? There are apparently doctors alliance stressing that it be approved asap. Not talking about the annoying conspiracy theorists.
Essentially they're doctors who desperately want something they can do to help their patients.
There's a nice background piece at:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjAMegQIIxAC&usg=AOvVaw3NfUChG0BO7zBCl7u2bAam

The trouble is the clinical evidence. It mostly started with individual GPs etc trying it on 10 people and saying they all got better. Bigger trials either saw minimal results or they had no placebo group, making the results hard to interpret without bias.

Bias is a huge issue for doctors, like everyone else. If you want to believe something, because you really hope it works, it becomes about what you've, "seen with your own eyes." Unfortunately that doesn't always lead to fair control comparisons, random choices of test subjects, or realism about what the actual advantages were. To the point where its enthusiasts don't actually want trials because, "people are dying without it."

Meanwhile the doctors who aren't impressed with the data so far, would actually need to be impressed to make them see the value in running a large scale trial themselves.

It's not the only drug where people leapt to use it, because then you could feel like you were doing something. Convalescent plasma sounded great until they trialled it properly.

That said, Remdesivir doesn't seem to have that much going for it when you look at the stats, and it's found a market, and a very profitable one.
 

stw2022

Full Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2021
Messages
1,179
In the UK the Indian variant seems to be surging but the overall numbers aren't. When this all shakes out could this just be the Indian strain replacing the Kent variant as the dominate one rather something that's going to necessarily lead to an huge increase in case numbers?

It does seem to be infecting younger people more but surely with vaccines the infection rates among unvaccinated is higher than among vaccinate groups with the Kent variant too?
 

Dumbstar

Full Member
Joined
Jul 18, 2002
Messages
17,431
Location
Viva Karius!
Supports
Liverpool
In the UK the Indian variant seems to be surging but the overall numbers aren't. When this all shakes out could this just be the Indian strain replacing the Kent variant as the dominate one rather something that's going to necessarily lead to an huge increase in case numbers?

It does seem to be infecting younger people more but surely with vaccines the infection rates among unvaccinated is higher than among vaccinate groups with the Kent variant too?
News reports suggesting heavily hit Bolton has only seen a rise in unvaccinated people ending up in hospital (so younger people). No increase in elderly admissions (the vaccinated).
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
112,018
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
In the UK the Indian variant seems to be surging but the overall numbers aren't. When this all shakes out could this just be the Indian strain replacing the Kent variant as the dominate one rather something that's going to necessarily lead to an huge increase in case numbers?

It does seem to be infecting younger people more but surely with vaccines the infection rates among unvaccinated is higher than among vaccinate groups with the Kent variant too?
It will only completely replace the Kent variant if it’s significantly more infectious or more resistant to vaccines. In both scenarios we’re likely to see some sort of surge, as restrictions are lifted.

If it’s only very slightly more infectious or very slightly resistant than there’s unlikely to be much of a surge but then it would be unlikely to replace the Kent variant.
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
112,018
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons

Not sure this is enough evidence to support her conclusions but I’ve seen lots of similar tweets about mental health in the young during the pandemic. Eating disorders and self harm have gone through the roof. Hopefully we can all be a bit less judgemental the next time we see a gang of kids drinking cans in the park. I’ve even heard about people calling the police to stop a bunch of teenagers playing a game of football because “they weren’t social distancing”.
 

prateik

Full Member
Joined
Dec 14, 2005
Messages
38,847
108 to 134 ... Even if we assume its directly linked to the lockdown, that isnt going to affect the policy regarding opening/shutting schools. it shouldnt.

If opening schools is safe, it should be open. If it is a risk, 26 more deaths over a year wont change that.

Also, as a side note, the tweet doesnt mention the numbers for the adult suicides.. I was curious so googled a bit..
apparently the numbers are usually 25-30 times higher than the youth numbers.. so a 11% decrease is pretty substantial

https://www.pe.com/2021/03/30/south...onavirus-pandemic-but-not-among-young-people/
 
Last edited:

711

Verified Bird Expert
Scout
Joined
Dec 10, 2007
Messages
21,989
Location
Don't Sign Old Players

Not sure this is enough evidence to support her conclusions but I’ve seen lots of similar tweets about mental health in the young during the pandemic. Eating disorders and self harm have gone through the roof. Hopefully we can all be a bit less judgemental the next time we see a gang of kids drinking cans in the park. I’ve even heard about people calling the police to stop a bunch of teenagers playing a game of football because “they weren’t social distancing”.
You're right about tolerance, I've had to work to overcome being too judgemental myself, It's kind of human nature though, it's a hard thing to beat.

As for the figures, I'm guessing that in any period of history where there was a big increase in deaths, serious illness and continually mentioned threat to personal health then there might me a jump in youth suicide, so yeah, conclusions will be hard to draw.
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
112,018
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
108 to 134 ... Even if we assume its directly linked to the lockdown, that isnt going to affect the policy regarding opening/shutting schools. it shouldnt.

If opening schools is safe, it should be open. If it is a risk, 26 more deaths over a year wont change that.

Also, as a side note, the tweet doesnt mention the numbers for the adult suicides.. I was curious so googled a bit..
apparently the numbers are usually 25-30% higher than the youth numbers.. so a 11% decrease is pretty substantial

https://www.pe.com/2021/03/30/south...onavirus-pandemic-but-not-among-young-people/
It’s just a small piece of the jigsaw in isolation but I keep hearing similar stats from everywhere. In Dublin there was a 58% increase in child/adolescents presentations with mental health crises to A&E departments in the second half of last year compared to 2019. With a much higher % than usual either admitted or referred for urgent specialist assessment, which implies that even that dramatic increase is the tip of the iceberg.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
78,928
Location
Centreback

Not sure this is enough evidence to support her conclusions but I’ve seen lots of similar tweets about mental health in the young during the pandemic. Eating disorders and self harm have gone through the roof. Hopefully we can all be a bit less judgemental the next time we see a gang of kids drinking cans in the park. I’ve even heard about people calling the police to stop a bunch of teenagers playing a game of football because “they weren’t social distancing”.
Only slightly higher than 2017 and I'd like to see the error bars.
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
112,018
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
But are they statistically significant? They may well be but it wouldn't be a surprise if thay California data isn't.
I haven’t seen any formal analysis published yet but the trend is obvious. Or talk to someone working on the front line. They will all tell you the same thing. Child and adolescent mental health services are being completely overwhelmed.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
78,928
Location
Centreback
I haven’t seen any formal analysis published yet but the trend is obvious. Or talk to someone working on the front line. They will all tell you the same thing. Child and adolescent mental health services are being completely overwhelmed.
I'm just talking about that data set. 126, 119, 108, 134 for an average of 121.75 out of a data set of about 10 million. I'd be really surprised if there was a significant statistical difference and if so there is no trend, just statistical noise. The 11% reduction in adults with a sample size of about 30 million is however likely to be statistically significant.
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
112,018
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
I'm just talking about that data set. 126, 119, 108, 134 for an average of 121.75 out of a data set of about 10 million. I'd be really surprised if there was a significant statistical difference and if so there is no trend, just statistical noise. The 11% reduction in adults with a sample size of about 30 million is however likely to be statistically significant.
You’d need to do the actual statistics to make any sort of claim about significance, one way or the other.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
78,928
Location
Centreback
You’d need to do the actual statistics to make any sort of claim about significance, one way or the other.
Add stand error bars and if there isn't a decent gap between them they aren't going to be statistically significant different. In this case all 4 will almost totally overlap.
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
112,018
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Add stand error bars and if there isn't a decent gap between them they aren't going to be statistically significant different. In this case all 4 will almost totally overlap.
But you have to calculate the size of those error bars. And even if they overlap there could still be a statistically significant difference. Basically, it’s complicated and no reason to dismiss what looks like a trend worth discussing.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
78,928
Location
Centreback
But you have to calculate the size of those error bars. And even if they overlap there could still be a statistically significant difference. Basically, it’s complicated and no reason to dismiss what looks like a trend worth discussing.
Add 1 SD error bars to that data and there is virtually 100% overlap. With SD error bars a significant gap (usually about half the size of the bars themselves), and not just no overlap between bars, will be present when there is a significant difference. In those cases the SD error bars are almost 100% overlapped for each data point so the chances of there being a significant difference is close to nil.
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
112,018
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Add 1 SD error bars to that data and there is virtually 100% overlap. With SD error bars a significant gap (usually about half the size of the bars themselves), and not just no overlap between bars, will be present when there is a significant difference. In those cases the SD error bars are almost 100% overlapped for each data point so the chances of there being a significant difference is close to nil.
Jesus Wibs, you’re like a dog with a bone! You’re also wrong. You don’t know what size the SD bars would be on this graph. It’s a massive sample size, so they could be very small. Without doing the maths (which neither you nor I have the time, inclination or information to do) it makes everything else you say about these data redundant.

Statistical nit-picking aside, the most obvious flaw in that graph is the absence of numbers from years prior to 2017. That seems to be a really obvious way in which the tweet might be misleading. And the hashtag shows there’s an agenda at play here.
 

Tibs

Full Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2007
Messages
12,939
Location
UK
Hancock doing a press conference at 5

Guessing its another call for everyone to get the vaccine if it is available to them.

Re June 21st, I feel that Boris should just come out and say it's going to be delayed by at least 1 month so we have more solid data re Indian variance/spread/and vaccine efficacy against it
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
17,398
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
Hancock doing a press conference at 5

Guessing its another call for everyone to get the vaccine if it is available to them.

Re June 21st, I feel that Boris should just come out and say it's going to be delayed by at least 1 month so we have more solid data re Indian variance/spread/and vaccine efficacy against it
perhaps hes throwing hancock under the bus to deliver the bad news (ref 21st June) so boris can roll up in a few weeks and be the hero that opens the pubs properly.... make it a bank holiday and call it Boris day
 

Massive Spanner

Thinks Geoff Shreeves has one
Joined
Jul 2, 2014
Messages
18,862
Location
Tool shed

:(

Have to say I get a bit judgey when I see anyone wearing disposable masks. No need for them. Wash and reuse everyone. Please.
it's not just face coverings either. Look at the amount of coffee cups being wasted again, just as people were really starting to adapt to using keep cups instead. Or all the plastic packaging around single bakery items etc. in supermarkets. It's a disaster.

I've seen a few places in Dublin start to allow keep cups again, thankfully.
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
112,018
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
it's not just face coverings either. Look at the amount of coffee cups being wasted again, just as people were really starting to adapt to using keep cups instead. Or all the plastic packaging around single bakery items etc. in supermarkets. It's a disaster.

I've seen a few places in Dublin start to allow keep cups again, thankfully.
It breaks my heart. Fecking individually plastic wrapped croissants and cookies. The real killer is that the movement against single use plastic was gaining momentum when this poxy pandemic hit.
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
17,398
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
It breaks my heart. Fecking individually plastic wrapped croissants and cookies. The real killer is that the movement against single use plastic was gaining momentum when this poxy pandemic hit.
Governments are going to need a lot of tax revenues post pandemic.

Single use plastic tax would probably be one of the taxes more acceptable to people.

Hit companies in the pocket and make sure that single use plastic is by far the most expensive way of packaging goods

That seems like the only logical couse of action I can see... tax revenues short term driving longer term behaviour change
 

Pronewbie

Peep
Joined
May 17, 2004
Messages
2,728
Location
In front of My Computer
I'd like to know what the UK's (and West's) appetite for another lockdown is, assuming the B1617.2 variant brings up your case numbers close to recent highs as it is more transmissible especially amongst children and can apparently incubate for longer without being picked up.

Here in Singapore, we are going through our first lockdown in 10 months despite a 40% vaccination rate.
 

Eugenius

Full Member
Joined
May 10, 2009
Messages
3,767
Location
Behind You
I'd like to know what the UK's (and West's) appetite for another lockdown is, assuming the B1617.2 variant brings up your case numbers close to recent highs as it is more transmissible especially amongst children and can apparently incubate for longer without being picked up.

Here in Singapore, we are going through our first lockdown in 10 months despite a 40% vaccination rate.
I'm guessing zero. Already noticing a fair few of the older population who have been vaxxed no longer give a damn either.
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
17,398
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
I'd like to know what the UK's (and West's) appetite for another lockdown is, assuming the B1617.2 variant brings up your case numbers close to recent highs as it is more transmissible especially amongst children and can apparently incubate for longer without being picked up.

Here in Singapore, we are going through our first lockdown in 10 months despite a 40% vaccination rate.
Limited I would say...

An extension of the current level of lockdown would be a lot more pallitable to most than either the levels of restriction being increased or in the scenario where restrictions are lifted and then reimposed I think you would see pretty low complience in those circustances (at least till things got out of hand).

It is helped that we are coming to summer though so meeting and socialising outdoors is a lot easier ... but yeah if therewas to be a 4th wave in october with severe lockdown restrictions I am not sure people would have much appetite at all
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
112,018
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
I'd like to know what the UK's (and West's) appetite for another lockdown is, assuming the B1617.2 variant brings up your case numbers close to recent highs as it is more transmissible especially amongst children and can apparently incubate for longer without being picked up.

Here in Singapore, we are going through our first lockdown in 10 months despite a 40% vaccination rate.
40% vaccination rate isn’t enough to open up society fully with variants of any kind spreading in the community. Wasn’t Singapore fully open (indoor dining etc) up until this lockdown?

What’s happening in Singapore and Taiwan is interesting. Having almost eradicated the virus seems to have made people much less willing to get vaccinated, which makes you much more vulnerable to these new variants (the UK one is the big problem in Taiwan, I think?)
 

Pronewbie

Peep
Joined
May 17, 2004
Messages
2,728
Location
In front of My Computer
40% vaccination rate isn’t enough to open up society fully with variants of any kind spreading in the community. Wasn’t Singapore fully open (indoor dining etc) up until this lockdown?

What’s happening in Singapore and Taiwan is interesting. Having almost eradicated the virus seems to have made people much less willing to get vaccinated, which makes you much more vulnerable to these new variants (the UK one is the big problem in Taiwan, I think?)
Yes the Kent variant is the dominant one in Taiwan.

As for the reluctance of getting vaccinated, while that was the case in Taiwan, in Singapore it was more a mix of the older populace's initial hesitation and us having insufficient vaccines.
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
9,202
Location
Cheshire
Re June 21st, I feel that Boris should just come out and say it's going to be delayed by at least 1 month so we have more solid data re Indian variance/spread/and vaccine efficacy against it
I think there's enough data coming through for them to make a call by then. Rumour has it they're confident that the vaccines are having some impact against this variant.
 

One Night Only

Prison Bitch #24604
Joined
Oct 16, 2009
Messages
25,427
Location
Westworld
Hancock doing a press conference at 5

Guessing its another call for everyone to get the vaccine if it is available to them.

Re June 21st, I feel that Boris should just come out and say it's going to be delayed by at least 1 month so we have more solid data re Indian variance/spread/and vaccine efficacy against it
And then in a month there is a new variant, and we delay again, and then another variant.
 

11101

Full Member
Joined
Aug 26, 2014
Messages
16,344

:(

Have to say I get a bit judgey when I see anyone wearing disposable masks. No need for them. Wash and reuse everyone. Please.
Here certain places like hospitals won't let you in unless you have a proper surgical mask or filtration masks. Reusable ones are not accepted.
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
112,018
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Here certain places like hospitals won't let you in unless you have a proper surgical mask or filtration masks. Reusable ones are not accepted.
I’d be ok with that (although debatable how big a benefit surgical masks vs well fitted reusable face covering). What grinds my gears is people trucking through dozens of disposable masks going in and out of shops.
 

hmchan

Full Member
Joined
Nov 20, 2017
Messages
1,230
Location
Hong Kong
Is anyone paying attention to the situation in Taiwan? They had been one of the best regions dealing with the pandemic until the recent outbreak, and I'm personally very worried as people have been living a normal life with little to no social distancing over the past year.
 

Pogue Mahone

Poster of the year 2008 & 2020
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
112,018
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Is anyone paying attention to the situation in Taiwan? They had been one of the best regions dealing with the pandemic until the recent outbreak, and I'm personally very worried as people have been living a normal life with little to no social distancing over the past year.
Read something about it recently. Very little social distancing, poor vaccine uptake and Kent variant is a grim combination.

In a way this has always been a risk with zero covid strategy. Borders are inevitably porous and a population that hasn’t been used to social distancing will be vulnerable to the same sort of surges we’ve seen in worst case scenarios in countries like Italy, Belgium or the Uk.
 

Tibs

Full Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2007
Messages
12,939
Location
UK
And then in a month there is a new variant, and we delay again, and then another variant.
I feel that once we get to a point that 90% of adults are vaccinated (both jabs), and any vulnerable kids, then we can proceed with caution and 'get on with it'

No harm in keeping to the current restrictions for another month or two, get to that really high national vaccination rate, and then ease the rules further.
 

Lj82

Full Member
Joined
Jun 12, 2016
Messages
964
Location
Singapore
40% vaccination rate isn’t enough to open up society fully with variants of any kind spreading in the community. Wasn’t Singapore fully open (indoor dining etc) up until this lockdown?

What’s happening in Singapore and Taiwan is interesting. Having almost eradicated the virus seems to have made people much less willing to get vaccinated, which makes you much more vulnerable to these new variants (the UK one is the big problem in Taiwan, I think?)

I don't think vaccine hesitancy is the reason for either Taiwan or Singapore. Singapore has vaccinated 25% of the population. The pace of the vaccination is constrained by availability of vaccines. For Taiwan, they had problems procuring vaccines.

The recent spike in cases in Singapore is most likely due to the new variant being more transmissible. The spike in community cases was preceded by increased imported cases.

For Taiwan, they had probably let their guard down. They have been living their life as per normal, and when the new variant broke through their defence, the population was caught out cold.