SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Bebestation

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I'm a pro vaccine guy but my family isn't.

They are showing articles such as 63% of people who have died after February are vaccinated individuals. This was apparently said by health organisations etc.

Makes me worried.
 

Rektsanwalt

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I'm a pro vaccine guy but my family isn't.

They are showing articles such as 63% of people who have died after February are vaccinated individuals. This was apparently said by health organisations etc.

Makes me worried.
About the status of their mental health or about the vaccines?
 

Woodzy

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Does a runny nose require you to book a covid test? I have a slightly runny nose but feel absolutely fine but my mates are giving me grief because I should get tested apparently.
 

jojojo

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I'm a pro vaccine guy but my family isn't.

They are showing articles such as 63% of people who have died after February are vaccinated individuals. This was apparently said by health organisations etc.

Makes me worried.
It's true that the vaccines aren't perfect - but they are doing a great job. The older you are the more likely covid is to kill you. Almost all the over 80s in the UK are vaxxed. What that does is reduce the odds of them dying, it doesn't remove the possibility - a vaxxed 90 year old has roughly the same risk as an unvaxxed 60 year old for example.

In terms of where we were though, and looking at each age group in turn - what the numbers say is that you're ten times more likely to die of covid if you're unvaxxed.

If you're young that improves your odds from unlikely, to really unlikely. If you're very old it moves you from extremely vulnerable to vulnerable.

You can see how things have changed if you look at how the ratio between cases, hospitalisations and deaths have changed since the Christmas/January wave:

If you are wondering if that just means that Delta is less dangerous - then the answer is apparently not, it looks at least as dangerous when it meets unvaxxed people as the January Alpha version was.
 

Pexbo

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I'm a pro vaccine guy but my family isn't.

They are showing articles such as 63% of people who have died after February are vaccinated individuals. This was apparently said by health organisations etc.

Makes me worried.
Lets say we have 10,000 people and 80% of them are vaccinated.

Now let’s say that 100 people die from coronavirus and 63% of them vaccinated.

That leaves 37% of people who died unvaccinated.

As there are 2,000 people unvaccinated and 37 of them have died, that gives you a (37/2000)*100 chance of dying if you are unvaccinated: 1.85%

As there are 8,000 people vaccinated and 63 of them have died, that gives you a (63/8000)*100 chance of dying if you are vaccinated: 0.7875%


Do you see the problem with that statistic and what it is actually hiding?
 

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madzo2007

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Does a runny nose require you to book a covid test? I have a slightly runny nose but feel absolutely fine but my mates are giving me grief because I should get tested apparently.
think there’s some colds going about, developed a sore throat yesterday and feel a bit bunged up today. I done a lateral flow one last night and it was negative.
 

decorativeed

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I'm a pro vaccine guy but my family isn't.

They are showing articles such as 63% of people who have died after February are vaccinated individuals. This was apparently said by health organisations etc.

Makes me worried.
If that figure of 63% is for all deaths, then it makes sense. With something like 95% of people over 70 vaccinated, then that will happen, given life expectancy is about 75. Basically they are expected to be the people who are dying, like they always have been doing. Just now 9 out of 10 of them are vaccinated. The stat seems to imply there's something inherently wrong with that or that the vaccination is a cause rather than a common factor in everyone in that age range.
 
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Heardy

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Had to go to A&E today to get antibiotics for an infected bite.

I could not believe that there was a section of the waiting room with COVID positive patients. It wasn’t clearly marked and I’d say there with another patient before we were told and we both got up hastily.

Through my 3 hour wait, we saw Covid positive patients sat there as doctored that saw them were in full PPE and then people went and sat with them and the staff did feck all about it.

An absolute shambles - I’m going to write a complaint to the hospital because that has to be an absolute disaster.
 

Dumbstar

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I'm a pro vaccine guy but my family isn't.

They are showing articles such as 63% of people who have died after February are vaccinated individuals. This was apparently said by health organisations etc.

Makes me worried.
My footy mate is 60, type B diabetes and a covid vax denier. He was adamant governments were targeting Pakistanis/Indians for something or another. Even by calling the latest variant the "Indian" variant before going with Delta. He was too wise for their games with this vaccination.

I did what I could to warn him months ago, I relayed the case of my daughter and wife going through long covid if he didn't believe the media and wanted first hand experience. His mind was not to be changed.

I have received a text from another friend that he is now in ICU. :( I hope he pulls through as we share many good tournament memories. Bebe, don't be my mate.
 

Bebestation

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My footy mate is 60, type B diabetes and a covid vax denier. He was adamant governments were targeting Pakistanis/Indians for something or another. Even by calling the latest variant the "Indian" variant before going with Delta. He was too wise for their games with this vaccination.

I did what I could to warn him months ago, I relayed the case of my daughter and wife going through long covid if he didn't believe the media and wanted first hand experience. His mind was not to be changed.

I have received a text from another friend that he is now in ICU. :( I hope he pulls through as we share many good tournament memories. Bebe, don't be my mate.
I'm sorry to hear about your mate.

I agree, I want the vaccine. We just live in a very social media intense era and the worst of all is that its not kids that are influenced- it's more the 60 year old dad's and mum's that seem to be by their Facebooks and what not.
 

Blodssvik

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My footy mate is 60, type B diabetes and a covid vax denier. He was adamant governments were targeting Pakistanis/Indians for something or another. Even by calling the latest variant the "Indian" variant before going with Delta. He was too wise for their games with this vaccination.

I did what I could to warn him months ago, I relayed the case of my daughter and wife going through long covid if he didn't believe the media and wanted first hand experience. His mind was not to be changed.

I have received a text from another friend that he is now in ICU. :( I hope he pulls through as we share many good tournament memories. Bebe, don't be my mate.
CIA ran a fake vaccine programme in Pakistan to map DNA in the Hunt for bin Laden. Surely fueled vaccine hesitancy among people from the region.
 

zing

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I'm a pro vaccine guy but my family isn't.

They are showing articles such as 63% of people who have died after February are vaccinated individuals. This was apparently said by health organisations etc.

Makes me worried.
If everyone's vaccinated, 100% of the people who die will have been vaccinated.
 

Gehrman

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I'm a pro vaccine guy but my family isn't.

They are showing articles such as 63% of people who have died after February are vaccinated individuals. This was apparently said by health organisations etc.

Makes me worried.
Vaccinated people still die of all kinds of stuff. It doesnt make you immortal.
 

Lj82

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I'm a pro vaccine guy but my family isn't.

They are showing articles such as 63% of people who have died after February are vaccinated individuals. This was apparently said by health organisations etc.

Makes me worried.
The stats sound strange. In Singapore, we have just passed 80% vaccination rate. In the kat month, about 15 people or so have passed away. Only one was fully vaccinated, and he was a 80-90 year old senior with several other health issues. The data is very clearly showing that vaccines work.
 

jojojo

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The stats sound strange. In Singapore, we have just passed 80% vaccination rate. In the kat month, about 15 people or so have passed away. Only one was fully vaccinated, and he was a 80-90 year old senior with several other health issues. The data is very clearly showing that vaccines work.
There are a lot of people abusing the stats at the moment - basically to mislead people who are nervous about the vaccines or who think that they don't need one. The UK stats basically look like this:


In others words - if you're over 50, you're 11 x as likely to be hospitalised or to die if you're unvaxxed compared to a vaxxed person of the same age. Just for the sake of putting some easy numbers on that - if you had 24 million people in that age-group, you could say 22million vaxxed people will have the same number of deaths as that remaining 2million unvaxxed.

In the UK vaccine takeup is high.

The thing is, if you have 23m vaxxed, using those same odds, they'll have more deaths than the 1 million of the group who remain unvaxxed. In the UK, the 50+ group are 95%+ vaccinated - so we're not far off that 23m v 1m story in the over 50s and there's a good chance that deaths amongst vaxxed people in that age group will be higher than amongst the unvaxxed. So, I don't know where the 63% headline came from, but it's probably not an outright lie - it's just a number open to massive misunderstanding and deliberate misuse.

Individual odds don't change - you're still 11x better off with the vaccine than without it. But con artists who like using numbers to confuse people, can throw out a headline and scare people who see it think it means that vaccines don't work or even that they leave you worse off.

Incidentally those calculations, for the under 50s - say you're 12x better off vaxxed than unvaxxed. The vaccine impact is visible across the age groups.
 

Stack

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Here in NZ we have had our first confirmed vaccination death. We are using the Pfizer vaccine. So far we have just over 1 million people who are fully vaccinated with 2 doses of the vaccine. We have had 3 million people who have had at least 1 dose of the vaccine.
We have had in total 3464 cases of Covid and that has given us 26 deaths in total.
Get vaccinated people, the numbers paint a very clear picture.
 

WI_Red

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Here in NZ we have had our first confirmed vaccination death. We are using the Pfizer vaccine. So far we have just over 1 million people who are fully vaccinated with 2 doses of the vaccine. We have had 3 million people who have had at least 1 dose of the vaccine.
We have had in total 3464 cases of Covid and that has given us 26 deaths in total.
Get vaccinated people, the numbers paint a very clear picture.
To clarify, did the person die from the vaccine or of COVID, but was vaccinated?
 

Stack

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A suspected reaction? Half an hour earlier you said it was confirmed. I don't know which it is but the two are totally different.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...myocarditis-rare-sideeffect-of-pfizer-vaccine

The reason I used the word "suspected". I was just trying to be sensible with my description. From the article. "The coroner still needs to rule on the case and the cause of death. The CV-ISMB believed the myocarditis was probably due to vaccination. The board also noted there were “medical issues occurring at the same time which may have influenced the outcome following vaccination”.
 

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https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...myocarditis-rare-sideeffect-of-pfizer-vaccine

The reason I used the word "suspected". I was just trying to be sensible with my description. From the article. "The coroner still needs to rule on the case and the cause of death. The CV-ISMB believed the myocarditis was probably due to vaccination. The board also noted there were “medical issues occurring at the same time which may have influenced the outcome following vaccination”.
Thanks and sorry to be narky. I'm not sure what the coroner can say really concerning an individual case. If 100 people get myocarditis annually in New Zealand anyway no one will ever know if this person would have been one of them or if they only got it because of vaccination. The stats make the latter more likely, but don't rule out the former at all. It really could be either one.

Considering the article is about risk it might be misleading not to mention one of it's main points though:

“The benefits of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 far outweigh the risks, with recent data from the United States showing a massive 25-fold reduction in the risk of hospitalisation and death from COVID-19 in vaccinated individuals.”
 

Stack

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Thanks and sorry to be narky. I'm not sure what the coroner can say really concerning an individual case. If 100 people get myocarditis annually in New Zealand anyway no one will ever know if this person would have been one of them or if they only got it because of vaccination. The stats make the latter more likely, but don't rule out the former at all. It really could be either one.

Considering the article is about risk it might be misleading not to mention one of it's main points though:

“The benefits of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 far outweigh the risks, with recent data from the United States showing a massive 25-fold reduction in the risk of hospitalisation and death from COVID-19 in vaccinated individuals.”
On the risk part which is an important point here are some of our numbers I had mentioned a few post earlier.

"We have had 3 million people who have had at least 1 dose of the vaccine.
We have had in total 3464 cases of Covid and that has given us 26 deaths in total."
 

711

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Without the vaccines, yes.

With them we’re clearly moving into an endemic.
I've always been annoyed by the word endemic.

It's original meaning was 'found only in a certain area', as in Kangaroos are endemic to Australia. I suspect this was widely misunderstood so a second meaning came about, as in 'lots and lots of them', as an example Rats are endemic in Liverpool. Which they are of course, but they're found everywhere else as well.

Now some bastard has invented a third meaning, 'A disease is described as endemic when it continues to be present within a given geographical area but its impact is manageable.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-58302480

Which is what you meant I presume. I seem to be easily annoyed this morning, I'd probably best log off. :)
 

711

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On the risk part which is an important point here are some of our numbers I had mentioned a few post earlier.

"We have had 3 million people who have had at least 1 dose of the vaccine.
We have had in total 3464 cases of Covid and that has given us 26 deaths in total."
Ah right, I didn't see it was you wrote both. Well said.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I've always been annoyed by the word endemic.

It's original meaning was 'found only in a certain area', as in Kangaroos are endemic to Australia. I suspect this was widely misunderstood so a second meaning came about, as in 'lots and lots of them', as an example Rats are endemic in Liverpool. Which they are of course, but they're found everywhere else as well.

Now some bastard has invented a third meaning, 'A disease is described as endemic when it continues to be present within a given geographical area but its impact is manageable.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-58302480

Which is what you meant I presume. I seem to be easily annoyed this morning, I'd probably best log off. :)
I think the rats/kangaroos is about them having their feet (paws) under the table. They’re established, breeding and not going away. If I dump a bunch of kangaroos into a a field in Ireland that won’t make them endemic. Conversely the feral cats us colonial wankers brought to Aus/New Zealand took a while to become endemic.

Same applies to the virus. We can have an outbreak of Ebola in Irland but if we stamp it out completely it never becomes endemic. SARS-COV-2 is on the cusp of becoming endemic all over the world. Which really just means it’s here to stay.
 

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I think the rats/kangaroos is about them having their feet (paws) under the table. They’re established, breeding and not going away. If I dump a bunch of kangaroos into a a field in Ireland that won’t make them endemic. Conversely the feral cats us colonial wankers brought to Aus/New Zealand took a while to become endemic.

Same applies to the virus. We can have an outbreak of Ebola in Irland but if we stamp it out completely it never becomes endemic. SARS-COV-2 is on the cusp of becoming endemic all over the world. Which really just means it’s here to stay.
Not in one meaning, saying penguins are endemic to the Antarctic would mean quite specifically that they are not found anywhere else.

And I know penguins get a bit further, but it was the best example I could think of quickly! Or I'm talking bollocks, who knows.
 

WI_Red

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I think the rats/kangaroos is about them having their feet (paws) under the table. They’re established, breeding and not going away. If I dump a bunch of kangaroos into a a field in Ireland that won’t make them endemic. Conversely the feral cats us colonial wankers brought to Aus/New Zealand took a while to become endemic.

Same applies to the virus. We can have an outbreak of Ebola in Irland but if we stamp it out completely it never becomes endemic. SARS-COV-2 is on the cusp of becoming endemic all over the world. Which really just means it’s here to stay.
Likely so, but smallpox shows that a true global effort can make a difference. Obviously it is a different virus and social conditions are radically different, but I still believe it is achievable but very, very, very unlikely.

Edit: That is really poor sentence construction. Need coffee.
 

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Not in one meaning, saying penguins are endemic to the Antarctic would mean quite specifically that they are not found anywhere else.

And I know penguins get a bit further, but it was the best example I could think of quickly! Or I'm talking bollocks, who knows.
Kiwis being endemic to New Zealand being an example?

Annoyingly endemic has come to have two meanings that are close to contradictory. I have had analysts describe issues to me at work as endemic meaning "isolated exclusively and inherent in one area" and also "exists everywhere in an omnipresent and perpetual state". Both are technically correct but require clarification to gain comprehension.

So, describing Covid as endemic if it acheives a stable dynamic and presence is, I believe, correct if confusing given the other meaning.
 

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Kiwis being endemic to New Zealand being an example?

Annoyingly endemic has come to have two meanings that are close to contradictory. I have had analysts describe issues to me at work as endemic meaning "isolated exclusively and inherent in one area" and also "exists everywhere in an omnipresent and perpetual state". Both are technically correct but require clarification to gain comprehension.

So, describing Covid as endemic if it acheives a stable dynamic and presence is, I believe, correct if confusing given the other meaning.
I agree with your analysts! Charles Darwin would have too, possibly, I think that's where I got it from in the first place.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Kiwis being endemic to New Zealand being an example?

Annoyingly endemic has come to have two meanings that are close to contradictory. I have had analysts describe issues to me at work as endemic meaning "isolated exclusively and inherent in one area" and also "exists everywhere in an omnipresent and perpetual state". Both are technically correct but require clarification to gain comprehension.

So, describing Covid as endemic if it acheives a stable dynamic and presence is, I believe, correct if confusing given the other meaning.
I don’t think those two meanings are necessarily different. Something can be endemic to a specific region or endemic in multiple regions, or endemic everywhere. The key point is that, as you said, it reaches a stable and dynamic presence. As opposed to being transient.
 
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Likely so, but smallpox shows that a true global effort can make a difference. Obviously it is a different virus and social conditions are radically different, but I still believe it is achievable but very, very, very unlikely.

Edit: That is really poor sentence construction. Need coffee.
Smallpox was a one time vaccine, boom.. life immunity.
This is nothing like, I don’t think there’s a chance of ridding it from the face of the Earth, not even a tiny percentage of a chance.
 

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I don’t think those two meanings are necessarily different. Something can be endemic to a specific region or endemic in multiple regions, or endemic everywhere. The key point is that, as you said, it reaches a stable and dynamic presence. As opposed to being transient.
Quite, I agree. The meanings are in principle the same in terms of stable and dynamic presence.

The issue is that it can be used to mean "in an isolated area" and "omnipresent". In the case of my analysts that I alluded to above that can be quite a critical distinction!

The meaning regarding Covid seems clear however. It will be endemic in the global human population.