67% actually seems quite low to me, I would've thought 80+% given the protection of the vaccines and that 90% of over 12's are vaxxed now. @Pogue Mahone ?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
Just personal opinion but I wouldn’t trust a result from a lateral flow test if it paid me
on a separate note don’t start me on home tests. Your average Joe bloggs can’t tickle his brain himself
We don’t know the age range of the latest patients. Just guessing but maybe some are kids?
I think GB means 67% of those in ICU are unvaccinated, rather than 67% of the population. In other words you are a lot more likely to end up in ICU if you haven't had your vaccine.
No I know that, but with 90+% vaccine effectiveness and 90+% uptake from over 12's that seems like a pretty low number, going by the Math? Unless there actually are a lot of under 12's in ICU with it.
Right, sorry. Maybe people that don't get vaccinated are also people more likely not to look after themselves physically and so more likely to end up in ICU? I'm assuming you're right about the maths, I'm too lazy to do it!
That's a good point, there have been a lot of anti vax rallies in Ireland recently. Gobshites.
It does seem low but don’t forget there are people who are medically ineligible for vaccines and they’re more likely to do very badly if they catch covid.
That would increase the % of unvaccinated in ICU. The puzzle here is why the % is lower than you’d expect.
Fecking hell I totally missed that. I am thick.
@Massive Spanner
Actually the main reason there aren’t a higher % of unvaccinated people in ICU is because so many people are vaccinated. Bear in mind well over 90% (of all ages) are fully vaccinated with close to 99% in the older/most vulnerable groups. If we vaccinated 100% of the population then 0% of the people in ICU would be unvaccinated. All of which means that 67% unvaccinated in ICU doesn’t seem all that low.
Actually the main reason there aren’t a higher % of unvaccinated people in ICU is because so many people are vaccinated. Bear in mind well over 90% (of all ages) are fully vaccinated with close to 99% in the older/most vulnerable groups. If we vaccinated 100% of the population then 0% of the people in ICU would be unvaccinated. All of which means that 67% unvaccinated in ICU doesn’t seem all that low.
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That's a good way of looking at it, hadn't really considered that perspective.
This was a sobering read in local media here today.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...-allow-covid-to-become-endemic-in-new-zealand
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...-allow-covid-to-become-endemic-in-new-zealand
Are 90% fully vaccinated?
Out of 100, if 90 are vaccinated and 10 arent, and 3 people end up in the hospital (1 out of 90 and 2 out of 10), it would be 67% hospitalization for unvaccinated..
so the chances of getting hospitalized purely on that would be 1 in 90 for vaccinated and 18 out of 90 for unvaccinated.. 18x higher. sounds about right. |
Out of 100, if 90 are vaccinated and 10 arent, and 3 people end up in the hospital (1 out of 90 and 2 out of 10), it would be 67% hospitalization for unvaccinated..
so the chances of getting hospitalized purely on that would be 1 in 90 for vaccinated and 18 out of 90 for unvaccinated.. 18x higher. sounds about right. |
That’s basically a rehash of all the zero covid arguments the rest of the world has been dealing with for the last 18 months. He’s also being disingenuous with the flu comparison. Yes, covid is more contagious than flu but it also seems more susceptible to vaccines than flu. Plus covid spares the young much more than flu. I find articles like that really are scaremongering. Especially now we don’t have any choice but to allow covid become endemic. He’s like King Canute, pushing back the tide.
Not sure they are quite as useless as that but I do take your point.
A week or so ago, before I had this heavy cold, I had a routine blood test. And I asked the person for their understanding of the LFT. They said that if you do have symptoms, they are reasonably good. Especially if you carry out repeat tests of up to 3 times.
Thanks, I was wondering when i read it. Yes there is some scaremongering happening here. All the epidemiologists here are wanting us to go back to our toughest restrictions, I think thats because their knowledge means they follow the data and outcomes very closely but i do wonder if they are also factoring the difficulties that happen with long tough restrictions. There is a real arm wrestle happening here with opinions on how to move forward.
My gut feeling is the Govt are using every delaying tactic available to them to slow lowering of restrictions until we get our vaccination rate up. One example of that is our school year ends in 4 weeks and the Govt wont let Auckland schools reopen in that time. We head into our summer school break which means Auckland students wont be back at school till the end of January. Those students have now already lost 2 months of school time.
New cases are indeed much higher in the UK. And set against the high level of double vaccinated, it can be concluded that the reluctance to wear a mask is a big factor.
I really don't understand why people here seem so reluctant to do just the very basic even just indoors.
How difficult can it actually be to do this.
It looks so easy when someone does it for you. Thanks.
Any idea of the number of people that are hospitalized October this year and October last year? Surely when you consider all the vaccinated and those who went through the illness there should be much less hospitalizations compared to year before?
Year on year comparisons won't work at the moment. This time last year we were looking at the European version of the virus. A couple of months later and we hit the Alpha variant - twice as infectious. 7 months after that we hit the Delta variant - twice as infectious as Alpha. Plus we've gone from "some measures" - like masks, controls over how many people could socialise, no crowds at football matches, entire classes of kids being sent home for one case etc etc to everything open.
In other words we should be seeing a lot more cases, hospitalisations and deaths than we are. In the UK we've basically been sat at roughly peak case numbers, without approaching peak hospitalisations or deaths. Not great but the covid deaths pattern looks like this:
You can see it in terms of deaths/100 thousand people as a heat map through the pandemic at:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=England
Or for hospitalisations, take a look at:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=overview&areaName=United Kingdom
Hospitalisations are lower than they were when we were experiencing similar case rates in the past. Average age has gone down, reflecting high vax rates amongst the older ones and high case rates amongst school kids and their parents.
Cheers, mate. The numbers are kinda conflicting in different countries to form some sort of a pattern. There are naturally lot of variables out there with lockdowns, safety measures, vaccination, efficiency and so on.Year on year comparisons won't work at the moment. This time last year we were looking at the European version of the virus. A couple of months later and we hit the Alpha variant - twice as infectious. 7 months after that we hit the Delta variant - twice as infectious as Alpha. Plus we've gone from "some measures" - like masks, controls over how many people could socialise, no crowds at football matches, entire classes of kids being sent home for one case etc etc to everything open.
In other words we should be seeing a lot more cases, hospitalisations and deaths than we are. In the UK we've basically been sat at roughly peak case numbers, without approaching peak hospitalisations or deaths. Not great but the covid deaths pattern looks like this:
You can see it in terms of deaths/100 thousand people as a heat map through the pandemic at:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=England
Or for hospitalisations, take a look at:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=overview&areaName=United Kingdom
Hospitalisations are lower than they were when we were experiencing similar case rates in the past. Average age has gone down, reflecting high vax rates amongst the older ones and high case rates amongst school kids and their parents.
Worrying part is that I think it's pretty obvious that this virus will become seasonal just like influenza as it naturally evolves into different variations, whilst some of the vaccines wanes in efficiency after couple of months.
Think the key should always be hospitalization rate and keeping that low as death rate really depends on if the health system can handle the load and if the virus can be treated in due time, whilst hopefully even though being more contagious should be less dangerous when it circulates more and more like the flu..
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Very interesting.
There's a lot of speculation around it at the moment.
Worst case is that one of the PCR tests is giving more false negatives than usual, possibly due to a mutation in the virus. However there's a strong case for saying that all we're seeing is that where case numbers are high (as with secondary school students) you're seeing the normal false negative rate on PCR.
On the technical side, they're looking at whether the LFT is showing positive for a different coronavirus (more like there common cold types).
Alternatively, it may all be about the samples - the PCR tests can miss the virus if there's too much mucus (snot!) on the sample. Hence the false negative may be worse when it's testing kids and the vaccinated - who are more likely to get a runny or blocked nose as one of the symptoms.
If the virus has evaded to avoid PCR testing, that’s as sure a sign of test, trace and isolate working as anything if it’s proven to be an effective evolutionary pressure.
That’s strange. On what basis are they deciding the PCR negative is false? Surely the much more likely scenario is the LFT giving a false positive?
It go either way really. They're looking at both.
If the LFTs are showing false positives, then they're doing so at a much higher rate than normal (their usual problem is too many false negatives) - hence they're looking at specificity issues with one of the currently circulating other coronaviruses.
If the PCR tests are showing false negatives, it may just be that they're doing so at the normal rate - but getting a lot more positive samples than normal, hence the negatives are noticeable. It's that denominator problem.
If you've got a 1000 samples, only one positive, and you've got a false negative error rate of 1 in a 100, chances are that you're really unlikely to miss it. If you've got 1000 samples, and 100 positive, chances are you'll miss at least one of the positives. Obviously those aren't the real numbers, but they give an idea of why it may turn out that nothing odd is going on - and that we need to be more cautious about PCR always trumping LFT.
Yeah, prior probability big factor in test accuracy. Bit of a head melter but hugely influential.
Your point about the 'snot' in the back of the nose, as well as a likelihood of increased mucus in the throat is definitely something you would get with a heavy cold or flu. The LFT leaflet does tell you to cough and blow your nose before doing the test.
Cases up 48% on last week, R above 1, can see measures being reintroduced
With respect to those medically unable to have the vaccine, here in NZ out of a population of 5 million we are being told there are only about 100 people unable to take the vaccine. What sort of numbers of people unable to take the vaccine are authorities telling people in other countries?
100 out of 5 million seems an incredibly low number to me.
100 out of 5 million seems an incredibly low number to me.
1500 cases pd a week ago, nearly 4000 today, going well this 'Freedom'
Negative noises coming out of Ireland too. Things seem to be going south everywhere. Goddam this fecking thing is relentless.
Yep now saying open up may not go ahead on 22nd
Is it a surprise? Our rubbish healthcare can't cope in winter even without Covid. The government have shown they will do whatever it takes to not expose it for the shitshow they have helped it become.
I'm still optimistic we will lift restrictions and that this is mostly scare mongering and trying to gauge public opinion.
Sorry I’m not really following Ireland related Covid news but are you saying that you guys still haven’t fully opened up yet since vaccinations have began? Must be frustrating. We have been fully open since end of May and Covid passports have been introduced recently to keep it this way for those who are immunized either through Covid recovery or vaccination. Don’t think we’re going back to any kind of lockdown from here, healthcare system seems to be coping well with the latest increase in cases which are beginning to flatten now.