In this situation though, despite the relatively low death rates, it’s the hospitalisation that is the most important as, independent of the ‘outcome’, it’s putting a strain on hospitals / taking up beds that will inevitably be needed for the worsening flu season as everyone will be out mixing again unlike last year.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
We're relying more or less entirely on vaccines now. The theory is that the boosters will pull the death rates down and have some impact on hospitalisations. Meanwhile getting a vaccine into the rest of the (12+) population will pull down hospitalisations and also reduce case rates. Mass flu vaccination will help keep flu hospitalisations down as well.
From the point of view of the statistical models. We could be through this covid wave by Christmas, if it works out right. Leaving the hospitals a bit more capacity for flu cases.
The vaccine program in schools has been slow to get going though. So it looks like England will follow Scotland and start using walk-in centres with the 12+, rather than using school vaccine days.
The booster campaign has made a sluggish start as well, but is starting to speed up now. It's a tough job though. The vaccine rollout uses staff from GPs and hospital settings who are already overwhelmed. The initial rollout used a lot of volunteers as well, but they're now heading back to work, or back to the projects they were doing before covid. Fewer people around for volunteering, and past volunteers running out of steam.
Incidents like the Wolverhampton PCR lab messing up tests don't help either. Presumably a good percentage of people who got false negative results went back to work/school or went round to see granny afterwards.
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Good/detailed thread on what’s going wrong in the UK right now. Makes concerning reading.
Do we all need a booster or even one every 6 months?
I think we will all need one eventually. I hope it won’t be needed again every six months.
It’s possible that an initial couple of doses followed by another one 6-12 months later is the best way to give long term protection. That dosing regime wasn’t tested when developing these vaccines because it would have taken too long to get results.
The whole world will be watching Israel very closely for the next 6 months, that’s for sure.
Bloody depressing to think it still has a hold of us
https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/1018/1254342-covid-update-monday/
Seems inevitable at this stage that WFH will be reintroduced until at least the New Year to some extent and mask wearing won't be removed in the settings it was supposed to be. Fine by me, I do think they need to give some leeway to events, nightclubs, live music etc. though.
Seems inevitable at this stage that WFH will be reintroduced until at least the New Year to some extent and mask wearing won't be removed in the settings it was supposed to be. Fine by me, I do think they need to give some leeway to events, nightclubs, live music etc. though.
How can nightclubs be justified ? everyone wearing surgical masks all night?
L
They need to figure something out. Pubs have adjusted to measures. They've been shut for over 18 months now.
I know but nightclubs are the very definition of what this virus loves aren't they. Hundred of people in a small space for hours - generally stuffy as feck.
I dont think they will let them open
I was in Kilkenny at the weekend and you could say that about almost every pub there to be fair. Don't think many are abiding by the restrictions at this point across the country (better in Dublin though) which is why we are such a mess compared to other countries. Think Pogue made a good point before that we seem to socialize in a very different way here in Ireland, which is true.
It all comes down to the gamble on boosters (and vaccinating the unvaxxed) doing enough to pull down hospitalisations and deaths. It remains too close to call really, especially as you dive into the details. Certainly there's not enough difference between England, Scotland, Wales to suggest that simple fixes - like face masks, night clubs etc actually make much difference in a country with high vaccination rates and high rates of past infection.
Looking at England, case rates in 18+ peaked in early July just over 30k/day, "the Euros effect". Since the grand reopening (full football matches, night clubs, no masks etc) adult case rates have been roughly stable at under 20k/day. Currently those cases are concentrated in adults who live with school kids. Meanwhile, cases amongst the school aged have gone through the roof, they now account for about half the daily case total. The latest ONS survey says more than 8% of 12-16s currently test positive on PCR.
The ethics and the epidemiology of letting it race through the under 16s is questionable, particularly as the vaccination campaign started late and has started slow. However it does look like between prior infection and vaccination (probably now using walk-in centres as well as school vaccine days) secondary school kids are likely to reach, if not herd immunity, then some kind of stable equilibrium in the next month or so.
There are also the first glimmers of a disproportionate (to the rest of the community) fall in case rates among the over 80s. Whether that's a random blip, a behavioural shift (more of the older ones staying home, more grandkids not visiting grandparents or whatever) or the first sign of the booster rollout in action we'll have to wait and see
And dragging us along with them ffs.
Anybody familiar with the Italian data who can explain this report in the Guardian today:
Italy reported 44 coronavirus-related deaths on Monday, up from 24 the previous day, the health ministry said, while the daily tally of new infections fell to 1,597 from 2,437.
Italy has registered 131,585 deaths linked to Covid since the outbreak in February last year. It has the second highest toll in Europe behind Britain, and the ninth highest in the world. The country has reported 4.7 million cases to date.
The number of patients in hospital with Covid - not including those in intensive care - stood at 2,428 on Monday, up from 2,386 a day earlier.
I can find the official daily cases site but not the official up to date hospital/deaths data. Basically what's odd is that those hospital numbers are roughly a third of the UK, and deaths a quarter of the UK but cases are running at a tenth (or less). Is that an age distribution of cases thing - are there more older people catching covid? Is it down to vaccination rates in the different age groups? Anyone familiar with the backstory to those numbers?
@Penna @11101
Italy reported 44 coronavirus-related deaths on Monday, up from 24 the previous day, the health ministry said, while the daily tally of new infections fell to 1,597 from 2,437.
Italy has registered 131,585 deaths linked to Covid since the outbreak in February last year. It has the second highest toll in Europe behind Britain, and the ninth highest in the world. The country has reported 4.7 million cases to date.
The number of patients in hospital with Covid - not including those in intensive care - stood at 2,428 on Monday, up from 2,386 a day earlier.
I can find the official daily cases site but not the official up to date hospital/deaths data. Basically what's odd is that those hospital numbers are roughly a third of the UK, and deaths a quarter of the UK but cases are running at a tenth (or less). Is that an age distribution of cases thing - are there more older people catching covid? Is it down to vaccination rates in the different age groups? Anyone familiar with the backstory to those numbers?
@Penna @11101
Look, a lot of people are going to die, granted, but at least I’m not being forced to wear a piece of cloth on my face anymore.
The only reasons I can think of are the Green Pass requirement and the fact that even in White Zones we still have to wear masks when we go inside a shop, office or whatever. It's still being enforced and people are still complying.
Also a lot of young teens were vaccinated during the summer months, whereas the UK has been dithering over that.
We were also behind the UK with the vaccine rollout, so maybe people here still have higher levels of protection - I didn't get my second dose till the back end of June, even at my age.
It's more why the hospital rate is so high compared to the case rates that I was looking at. A third of the hospital patients (or more if the ICU stats really aren't included in that figure) but only about a tenth of the cases. It suggests the cases profile (and/or the vaccination profile) is different.
Colin Powell dies of covid
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/10/18/politics/colin-powell-dies/index.html
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/10/18/politics/colin-powell-dies/index.html
I would speculate partly it's down to the age demographic here, and partly that people just don't bother getting tested anymore. I don't know the actual testing numbers but everybody is vaccinated so people who get ill stay at home and wait it out.
Just to add, he was undergoing treatment for multiple myeloma when covid hit him. People with blood cancers are very vulnerable to covid, and the vaccines don't always provoke an immune response.
Ah sorry, I misunderstood. In that case, I have no idea - unless people are being admitted to hospital at a earlier stage of the illness than they would be in the UK.
Thank you @jojojo for providing balance and context over your last few posts.
After nearly losing my mother earlier this year due to Covid (spent 3 weeks in the ICU) and taking all possible steps to protect her thereafter, reading the rest of the stuff on this page was quite depressing.
I greatly appreciate your contribution to the thread.
After nearly losing my mother earlier this year due to Covid (spent 3 weeks in the ICU) and taking all possible steps to protect her thereafter, reading the rest of the stuff on this page was quite depressing.
I greatly appreciate your contribution to the thread.
That seems like the most likely explanation.
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That could also be a factor. VERY anecdotal but two people I know with Covid were told it wasn't serious enough and sent home from hospital in the UK, one of whom later died. In Italy they will admit you immediately.
And that seems like a very unlikely explanation!
Really bugs my how they say 'Ukas' and not 'UKAS' in that article.
How a lab has won work without the correct certification is definitely suspect. Usually you'll be required to submit evidence of certification, so either the government have dropped the ball and not asked to see it, or they knew they didn't have it and don't care.
There's the third option that the lab forged it but that's highly unlikely, UKAS certificates you can just search for on their website to see if they are legit.
Pfizer seek approval for vaccinations of 5-11 year olds in Europe
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/1018/1254448-ema-children-vaccine/
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/1018/1254448-ema-children-vaccine/
Apparently you can self-certify as a lab, here's the form:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/self-declare-as-a-private-sector-covid-19-testing-provider
If you're not UKAS approved then you are supposed to be in the process of getting approval, and:
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So, looks like they were on a fast track to getting the contract, followed by a slow track to getting certification. I expect they got paid on time though.
Wish I could self certify and not have to deal with ISO17025 each year, who do I need to pay/bribe?
What I will say is that UKAS are an absolute shambles of a company. Considering they are the UK accreditation body, the certification bodies beneath them (BSI etc) are so much better in terms of service, technology, procedures and processes. The other month I had to tell UKAS we are moving a lab from one building to another, and they tried to flag that I 'hadn't given them enough information', turns out there isn't anywhere internally or externally that UKAS actually specify what information you need to give them, they went from trying to raise a nonconformance on us, to raising one on themselves.
I had a quick look on the UKAS lab search last night to see if I could see anything about Immensa or Dante, unsuprisingly there weren't any results found.
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This might explain why we are so much worse than other countries. New variant AY.4.2 is 10% of UK cases at the moment.
Another one? Christ. When will those unvaccinated realise that this will keep happening as long as there is hosts for it to mutate in (them)?
All of this and yet we are still not even being told to do the basics.
No social distancing and no requirement to wear a face covering.
It is just mind numbingly stupid.
And the latest stats show that children are now some of the biggest spreaders.
I always wear a face mask inside any public space. Takes literally seconds to put one on.
At most it explains 10% of the difference (or 11,1% if you want to look it that way), so not really. Not that I think there is much wrong with UK's situation.
You don’t?
I would have thought you don’t want to be the country with the highest infection rate going into winter
Barely anybody wears a mask now. Went out yesterday and I’d say 80% were not wearing masks & almost everyone no longer keeps reasonable distance. Seems like we’re in for a long winter.
The play was to keep infections low until vaccines and then go back to normal. The only way that can happen is either through more vaccinations or infections. Everybody who wanted the vaccine has already had it in UK. Sure you can do more to educate people but that will take many months or years. I expect other countires to have similarly high case numbers later. The young did their share well, the old can keep shielding if they want to.
NHS England, Amanda Pritchard has confirmed to a HoC committee that 12-15s will be able to get vaccines through the national booking system by halfterm. School based rollout has been going too slowly in most areas, a consequence really of how few school nurses there are now.
Unfortunately she also said that booking texts for boosters for over 50s are going out on time, within a week of the 6 month trigger. Which anecdotally at least isn't true. The discrepancy may be down to patient specific stuff (Pfizer boosters are mostly done at mass vaccine centres, that can exclude some patients who were previously vaccinated in their own homes or at rural centres). Or it may just be wishful thinking on her part.
We'll see I guess. She blames people not taking up the offer quickly enough. However it's certainly the case that the national booking system still says specifically that people should wait for individual notifications. Personally I won't believe that it's old people stalling on boosters until the booking system allows the risk groups who are 6 months + from second dose to book.
Unfortunately she also said that booking texts for boosters for over 50s are going out on time, within a week of the 6 month trigger. Which anecdotally at least isn't true. The discrepancy may be down to patient specific stuff (Pfizer boosters are mostly done at mass vaccine centres, that can exclude some patients who were previously vaccinated in their own homes or at rural centres). Or it may just be wishful thinking on her part.
We'll see I guess. She blames people not taking up the offer quickly enough. However it's certainly the case that the national booking system still says specifically that people should wait for individual notifications. Personally I won't believe that it's old people stalling on boosters until the booking system allows the risk groups who are 6 months + from second dose to book.