SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Pogue Mahone]

NHS England, Amanda Pritchard has confirmed to a HoC committee that 12-15s will be able to get vaccines through the national booking system by halfterm. School based rollout has been going too slowly in most areas, a consequence really of how few school nurses there are now.

Unfortunately she also said that booking texts for boosters for over 50s are going out on time, within a week of the 6 month trigger. Which anecdotally at least isn't true. The discrepancy may be down to patient specific stuff (Pfizer boosters are mostly done at mass vaccine centres, that can exclude some patients who were previously vaccinated in their own homes or at rural centres). Or it may just be wishful thinking on her part.

We'll see I guess. She blames people not taking up the offer quickly enough. However it's certainly the case that the national booking system still says specifically that people should wait for individual notifications. Personally I won't believe that it's old people stalling on boosters until the booking system allows the risk groups who are 6 months + from second dose to book.

Why are school nurses even involved? In Ireland the onus has been on the parents to register their kids and get them to vaccine centres for their jab (the same centres used to vaccinate adults).

 

[mitChley]

Barely anybody wears a mask now. Went out yesterday and I’d say 80% were not wearing masks & almost everyone no longer keeps reasonable distance. Seems like we’re in for a long winter.

Every time I see a Politician they aren't wearing one, saw Sunak visiting a place near me, no mask in sight. It can only be intentional, they know how it is perceived by the public.

 

[One Night Only]

Why are school nurses even involved? In Ireland the onus has been on the parents to register their kids and get them to vaccine centres for their jab (the same centres used to vaccinate adults).

It's probably much easier to jab a bunch of kids in one day if they're all in the same place at the same time would be my guess.

It makes sense to basically set up a jab centre for the day where 300 kids already are. Instead of getting 300 parents to take 300 kids for the jabs.

 

[jojojo]

Why are school nurses even involved? In Ireland the onus has been on the parents to register their kids and get them to vaccine centres for their jab (the same centres used to vaccinate adults).

Like Ireland, Scotland used the national vaccine centres and their rollout for 12-15s is way ahead of England. I think the England theory was that normally the school service can handle the flu vaccine rollout for the under 16s, so why not use the same route. The principle was that the staff were used to dealing with under 15s, parental consent forms etc and that it meant that everyone in a year group could be booked in at the same time so less individual absences from lessons.

Of course, flu vaccines normally get rolled out right through autumn term (not in a hurry), they aren't so worried about the 15 minute rest/monitor period, they haven't got Pfizer logistics challenges and they don't have to contend with large numbers of staff/students being absent due to covid. It just didn't add up to a pandemic rollout.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Scotland used the national vaccine centres as well and their rollout for 12-15s is way ahead of England. I think the theory was that normally the school service can handle the flu vaccine rollout for the under 16s, so why not use the same route. The principle was that the staff were used to dealing with under 15s, parental consent forms etc and that it meant that everyone in a year group could be booked in at the same time so less individual absences from lessons.

Of course, flu vaccines normally get rolled out right through autumn term (not in a hurry), they aren't so worried about the 15 minute rest/monitor period, they haven't got Pfizer logistics challenges and they don't have to contend with large numbers of staff/students being absent due to covid. It just didn't add up to a pandemic rollout.

Yeah, it just seems like an obviously bad call. When you’ve all the logistics in place already for adults, it’s so much simpler to use them for kids too instead of trying to come up with a whole new system.

Regarding absences it helped us that we did most of our kids before school started. Another obvious decision the UK got wrong.

This is actually pissing me off a lot right now. This should have been sorted months ago. The UK’s case numbers are ridiculously high, especially in secondary aged kids. That’s contributing to high case numbers everywhere and Ireland is getting dragged along with you. The rest of the EU is in a much better spot. Considering the head start the UK got with the vaccine rollout the current situation is a disgrace.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's probably much easier to jab a bunch of kids in one day if they're all in the same place at the same time would be my guess.

It makes sense to basically set up a jab centre for the day where 300 kids already are. Instead of getting 300 parents to take 300 kids for the jabs.

It makes sense to get the kids vaccinated as quickly as possible. Which this approach is clearly failing to achieve.

 

[Penna]

A good article about the UK's response to the pandemic, see through the eyes of a British-Italian journalist, Adriana Urbano:

Watching the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic hit the UK from Italy was like looking into a parallel universe. As someone with a dual British and Italian identity, it was also a defining moment for my relationship with the UK.

On March 9th, 2020, Italy’s then-Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced the first nationwide lockdown. The message of his historic ‘Io Resto a Casa’ (‘I’m staying home’) speech was clear: public health comes before other interests, as important as they may be. And we stayed home. The Great Italian Bake-Off had begun.

As the crisis worsened in other countries, Britons living in Italy – and Italians living in Britain – looked at the UK’s response and thought: what are they waiting for? To our frustration, the recent Commons report on the UK’s handling of the first wave of the pandemic only told those of us with connections to both countries what we already knew. The UK hadn’t learned from Italy’s experience.

Unsurprisingly, the Commons report called the UK’s government decisions on lockdowns and social distancing in the early weeks of the pandemic “one of the most important public health failures the UK has ever experienced”. It was a delay that cost thousands of lives.

Italy battled the pandemic with little data. But crucially, Italian officials drilled the message, quite literally, home: the situation is serious and there is no time to waste. By comparison, the UK’s attitude – despite by then having access to data from China, the WHO and Italy – was staggering.
The Commons report brings the bewilderment we felt at the time into clear focus.

On January 31st 2020, then-Health Minister Matt Hancock was informed by experts that a worst-case scenario would cause 820,000 deaths. The same week Italy locked down, the numbers in the UK started to align with this worst-case scenario. Despite the alarming data, Britain’s lockdown plan was yet to be formulated.

The same day, famed TV doctor Christian Jessen was forced to issue a public apologyafter comparing Covid-19 to the flu and accusing Italians of using lockdown as an excuse for a “siesta”. Faced with such widespread mixed messaging, it’s little wonder the British public appeared largely oblivious to the looming danger.

As the military was called in to help with Bergamo’s overflowing morgues on March 18th, British acquaintances happily announced on social media that they were not closing shop. Watching the UK’s response to Covid from Italy was like watching a drunk friend get behind the wheel of their car. Unfortunately, there was no snatching the keys out of their hands and calling a taxi. Sharon Braithwaite, a British-Italian journalist living in London, says that, as people stocked up on pasta and toilet paper, she too asked: ”when will the (UK) government do something concrete?’.

It was frustrating – and at times insulting – for those of us with connections to both countries to hear how the Italian crisis was being narrated in Britain.

A great deal of myths have been used to justify why Italy was so badly affected. Some blamed multi-generational families living under the same roof, while others pointed the finger at the Italian practice of kissing on the cheek. Though multigenerational families are more common in Italy than they are in the UK, the set-up is not so widespread that it could explain the overfilled morgues.

Perhaps most insidious of all were the comments made about Italy’s National Health System.

In one example, Dr Zoe Williams, a family doctor and media personality, reassured the public by saying in an interview on This Morning – a staple of British daytime TV – that ‘[the British] healthcare system is very different to Italy’. Where the difference lies is unclear: both countries fall under the same universal healthcare model, even though Italy’s is highly decentralised, leaving health care management to individual regions.

Contrary to popular opinion, the Italian health care system is internationally well-regarded and is often ranked as one of the best in the world. And the pandemic first hit (and overwhelmed) northern Italian regions widely regarded as having the best healthcare in the country. Seeing Italy’s flagship hospitals in the wealthy region of Lombardy under tremendous strain should have been a further alarm bell. If Italians have the second-highest life expectancy in Europe (83.1 years, second only to Spain) the healthcare system is to thank.

During the British government’s own enquiry, Professor Dame Sally Davies, former Chief Medical Officer for England, blamed “groupthink” and “British exceptionalism” for the fact British experts did not believe something like SARS could ever get from Asia to the UK. As Richard Horton, editor of The Lancet, said: the UK “missed an opportunity to prepare during the first months of 2020”.

This had long been apparent to many in Italy. As someone with dual British and Italian identity, the pandemic, paired with the chaos created by Brexit, is transforming my relationship with Britain. No longer the country of common sense and opportunity, Britain seems like a land consumed by isolationism and exceptionalism – an issue which has now engulfed public health.

The UK now has among the highest infection rates in the world, with 45,000 new cases being reported in a single day. The death toll is rising. In Italy, for now the health situation remains largely under control. The government and the majority of people remain cautious.

In some ways, nothing has changed.

https://www.thelocal.it/20211018/op...always-knew-uks-covid-response-was-a-failure/

 

[golden_blunder]

A good article about the UK's response to the pandemic, see through the eyes of a British-Italian journalist, Adriana Urbano:


https://www.thelocal.it/20211018/op...always-knew-uks-covid-response-was-a-failure/

Exceptionalism is another way to describe arrogance, ignorance and incompetence

 

[Penna]

Exceptionalism is another way to describe arrogance, ignorance and incompetence

Yes, all of those. I cannot understand the current policy (or lack of it) in the UK. I speak to my family every day, and I'm told "it's as if it's all over now here." The cases are so high, and it's only October.

 

[Sweet Square]

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[massi83]

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I hope you shared that for all the mistakes it contains.

 

[RoadTrip]

A few articles which seem to suggest “Plan B” is looking very much on the cards.

 

[Drifter]

Covid: Bring back rules amid rising cases, urge NHS chiefs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58976577

 

[Penna]

Covid: Bring back rules amid rising cases, urge NHS chiefs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58976577

It has to happen. I simply don't understand what the Government thinks the winter will be like for the NHS with no restrictions.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I hope you shared that for all the mistakes it contains.

UK has second highest case rate in the world (USA higher) based on that table. What other mistakes?

Very random selection of countries, mind you. And why mention China when there are much closer countries (politically and geographically) with stats that the UK compares very badly with?

 

[jojojo]

UK has second highest case rate in the world (USA higher) based on that table. What other mistakes?

Very random selection of countries, mind you. And why mention China when there are much closer countries (politically and geographically) with stats that the UK compares very badly with?

There's no doubt that the UK is taking a massive gamble with people's lives - and a sustained one that a chronically under-resourced GP and hospital structure may not be able to cope with. Not because of cases though, they're only a diagnostic indicator now and tell you next to nothing about country by country status.

France for example, is now showing 6483 hospitalised with around 6k cases/day.

UK 7749 hospitalised, cases around 40k/day.

France is in a better place to suppress case numbers from that low case load and bring down hospital rates, but they'll have to do it multiple times unless something else changes. Case rates amongst adults in the UK are basically unchanged since July (following the peak at the Euros) despite the removal of restrictions - the leap has been amongst the under 18s who account for more that half the cases.

The Plan B business that the NHS bloke etc are talking about would be more about a psychological warning to people to be more cautious. Masks on public transport and in shops, encourage working from home. But also the unwritten rules - don't let the kids visit granny until granny had had her booster. And the request, another round of volunteering and overtime, to run the vaccine centres at full capacity again. Most of those rules were never lifted in Wales and Scotland, but they've had minimal impact on overall numbers - only on timing.

 

[jojojo]

That test lab failure is starting to show up in the UK stats now. For example:

People who were tested by that dodgy lab (and got negatives) in October were asked to test again. As PCR can continue to show positive for weeks, we're now seeing some of the backlog coming through. It'll take another couple of days before we see the real current case rate.

Just how much this has affected case spread in the areas using the lab, we'll see soon.

Across the country this catch-up has added about 10% to the national cases number for the past few days - which unfortunately means the headline figure is unreliable at the moment. That'll settle in a couple of days time and we'll know where we're at again.

London though, looks to be going through another surge.

 

[11101]

Yes, all of those. I cannot understand the current policy (or lack of it) in the UK. I speak to my family every day, and I'm told "it's as if it's all over now here." The cases are so high, and it's only October.

It's simple, the UK can't afford to do anything else. Global trade is now back above pre-pandemic levels but in the UK exports are still 16% behind 2019 levels. The economic recovery is currently the worst of the G7 countries and the real reason is Brexit. For now the government can blame Covid but they know that excuse won't last forever. In the meantime they have to do everything they can to help the economy catch up, and that means everything open and some people that didn't need to die will do so.

 

[Tibs]

Two things:

WFH for those who can needs to start up again ASAP I'd argue...over the past month the trains in/out of the city centre are getting rammed - hardly anyone wears a mask. Not good.

Why are people who get this cold/chest infection - not covid - coming in to work??? Stay at home and get better!

 

[mitChley]

Why are people who get this cold/chest infection - not covid - coming in to work??? Stay at home and get better!

Absolutely infuriating. A girl at work came in Monday with a chest infection, her line manager sent her home. She's asked to come in today again "Do you still have a chest infection" "Yes" "No then"

 

[Salt Bailly]

I caught and recovered from covid approx a month ago and my workplace is now offering employees the booster jab. Is it worth getting from my perspective, given I have just (likely) had the delta variant, which I assume this booster is designed to fend off? Or should I hold fire until the next booster comes along to protect against the next mutation(s)?

 

[jojojo]

It's simple, the UK can't afford to do anything else. Global trade is now back above pre-pandemic levels but in the UK exports are still 16% behind 2019 levels. The economic recovery is currently the worst of the G7 countries and the real reason is Brexit. For now the government can blame Covid but they know that excuse won't last forever. In the meantime they have to do everything they can to help the economy catch up, and that means everything open and some people that didn't need to die will do so.

I don't think it is that simple. I think the UK (government, public health and population) has given up any belief in eradication and is now full steam ahead for endemic. There's an assumption that we'll all be exposed to the virus (now, next month, next year) and we'll either be vaxxed or unvaxxed when we catch it.

The only real difference between the approaches being suggested by most of the key scientists relate to mitigation, not to principle. Mitigation matters most if you can vaccinate more people, or if you have a better vaccine or better treatments coming through, so you can buy time to save lives.

Which is where the arguments are focused: wait for boosters? Wait for under U16s? Wait for vaccine passports to kick in? The English (even more than the UK as a whole) are currently assuming that the U16s will be ok, and that those at risk will either stay home or get a vaccine/booster. Meanwhile, the more people who catch covid now, the fewer immune naive people there will be to infect later this winter.

Grim as it might sound, the assumption is that the bulk of hospitalisations/deaths can only be delayed (aka the curve flattened) not avoided. In this model, only testing (before you go to work, visit granny, get on a bus) is useful on the mitigation side - as it may help other people avoid risks.

It is absolutely brutal for the immune compromised, those who can't take the vaccine, those who got too scared/over-confident to take a vaccine, and those who got vaccinated but are still unlucky.

It's also not great for the rest of us, who maybe can't get routine medical treatment. It must be painful and exhausting for the medical and care staff trying to cope. But does a longer, slower battle really do that much to change that? That's the great unknown, and I really do think it's an unknown at this stage.

TLDR: not just about money.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I don't think it is that simple. I think the UK (government, public health and population) has given up any belief in eradication and is now full steam ahead for endemic. There's an assumption that we'll all be exposed to the virus (now, next month, next year) and we'll either be vaxxed or unvaxxed when we catch it.

The only real difference between the approaches being suggested by most of the key scientists relate to mitigation, not to principle. Mitigation matters most if you can vaccinate more people, or if you have a better vaccine or better treatments coming through, so you can buy time to save lives.

Which is where the arguments are focused: wait for boosters? Wait for under U16s? Wait for vaccine passports to kick in? The English (even more than the UK as a whole) are currently assuming that the U16s will be ok, and that those at risk will either stay home or get a vaccine/booster. Meanwhile, the more people who catch covid now, the fewer immune naive people there will be to infect later this winter.

Grim as it might sound, the assumption is that the bulk of hospitalisations/deaths can only be delayed (aka the curve flattened) not avoided. In this model, only testing (before you go to work, visit granny, get on a bus) is useful on the mitigation side - as it may help other people avoid risks.

It is absolutely brutal for the immune compromised, those who can't take the vaccine, those who got too scared/over-confident to take a vaccine, and those who got vaccinated but are still unlucky.

It's also not great for the rest of us, who maybe can't get routine medical treatment. It must be painful and exhausting for the medical and care staff trying to cope. But does a longer, slower battle really do that much to change that? That's the great unknown, and I really do think it's an unknown at this stage.

TLDR: not just about money.

I think boosters are a bit of a plot twist. If they ramp up efficacy to a level which will see cases squashed to a very low level (as well as enhanced protection for elderly/vulnerable) then that’s a rationale for buying more time with mitigation. Early data out of Israel about efficacy of boosters is impressive.

 

[jojojo]

I think boosters are a bit of a plot twist. If they ramp up efficacy to a level which will see cases squashed to a very low level (as well as enhanced protection for elderly/vulnerable) then that’s a rationale for buying more time with mitigation. Early data out of Israel about efficacy of boosters is impressive.

Yep, Javid and that mob have been going on about the importance of getting the normal health services going again, and scoring cheap points by moaning about GPs not seeing more patients in person. That's despite the number of GPs being reduced in the past few years and continuing to fall. And despite an actual rise in GP consultations (including phone/video) over the past year.

I think they'll quietly drop the rhetoric for a couple of weeks - go on about national emergencies (aka back to bare bones GP services and more volunteers) and restart the big vaccination hubs full-time.

I suspect the main role for masks/working from home etc will be if they need them as part of the, "it's serious," messaging. I really doubt they'll order any businesses to close/bring back social distancing, they might go for vaccine passports but I suspect it will be more about the appearance of action than reality.

 

[massi83]

UK has second highest case rate in the world (USA higher) based on that table. What other mistakes?

Very random selection of countries, mind you. And why mention China when there are much closer countries (politically and geographically) with stats that the UK compares very badly with?

As you said, first sentence is a lie, US has more, as do Russia, they just lie about it. Not to mention how silly it is to use absolute numbers and not proportionate to population. Second sentence is also a lie, as there is plenty of protection through infection (and first dose).

Comparing to China is moronic for obvious reasons.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

As you said, first sentence is a lie, US has more, as do Russia, they just lie about it. Not to mention how silly it is to use absolute numbers and not proportionate to population. Second sentence is also a lie, as there is plenty of protection through infection (and first dose).

Comparing to China is moronic for obvious reasons.

Actually just noticed. He’s sorted by daily new cases. So he’s correct to say Uk highest in world. Also explains countries selected. They’re in order of daily case numbers. Obviously big variation in accuracy of these figures but still…

Good point re cases per capita fairer comparison. Uk pretty terrible on this metric too (deaths per capita also very bad) but not absolute worst.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yep, Javid and that mob have been going on about the importance of getting the normal health services going again, and scoring cheap points by moaning about GPs not seeing more patients in person. That's despite the number of GPs being reduced in the past few years and continuing to fall. And despite an actual rise in GP consultations (including phone/video) over the past year.

I think they'll quietly drop the rhetoric for a couple of weeks - go on about national emergencies (aka back to bare bones GP services and more volunteers) and restart the big vaccination hubs full-time.

I suspect the main role for masks/working from home etc will be if they need them as part of the, "it's serious," messaging. I really doubt they'll order any businesses to close/bring back social distancing, they might go for vaccine passports but I suspect it will be more about the appearance of action than reality.

Where is the Uk at with boosters anyway? We’ve been boosting 80+ for a while now (think nearly all done?) and got go ahead for 60+ as of yesterday.

This is a more time critical issue in Uk than rest of Europe as you got your first round of jabs out so much earlier.

 

[jojojo]

Where is the Uk at with boosters anyway? We’ve been boosting 80+ for a while now (think nearly all done?) and got go ahead for 60+ as of yesterday.

This is a more time critical issue in Uk than rest of Europe as you got your first round of jabs out so much earlier.

Well, as if by magic
"Health Secretary Sajid Javid will hold a press conference this afternoon.

He is due to speak at 17:00 BST and is expected to focus on booster vaccinations and the work of the government's antivirals taskforce."

Broadly though the crunch is that vaccine rollout was fast, booster rollout isn't as fast:

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— Twitter API (@user) date

They're going through the ambulant 75+ (at least those with family/friends as drivers) group fast but they've got big issues due to GPs having basically had to step back from the process. Mundane things, like free taxis to vaccine centres etc might help, but reactivating the GP/nurse teams who helped the carehomes and the mostly housebound etc last time is needed as well. There's no doubt that resources are thinner this time and it's not as easy for some of the key risk groups to take up the offer.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[massi83]

Actually just noticed. He’s sorted by daily new cases. So he’s correct to say Uk highest in world. Obviously big variation in accuracy of these figures but still…

Good point re cases per capita fairer comparison. Uk pretty terrible on this metric too (deaths per capita also very bad) but not absolute worst.

He isn't correct. US has more. Worldometer does US reporting state by state. He has picked a moment in time where only few states have reported their numbers on that day. Also day-to-day fluctuation is meaningless and 7-day average should be used.

I am not even angry that you thought I would get something so simple wrong. Just disappointed.

 

[Shane88]

Can Covid affect your ears/hearing? I'm vaccinated and I was sick about a week ago, lasted a day or so and I feel fine now but ever since I've had slight discomfort in my right ear and muffled hearing .

 

[Pogue Mahone]

He isn't correct. US has more. Worldometer does US reporting state by state. He has picked a moment in time where only few states have reported their numbers on that day. Also day-to-day fluctuation is meaningless and 7-day average should be used.

I am not even angry that you thought I would get something so simple wrong. Just disappointed.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Well, as if by magic
"Health Secretary Sajid Javid will hold a press conference this afternoon.

He is due to speak at 17:00 BST and is expected to focus on booster vaccinations and the work of the government's antivirals taskforce."

Broadly though the crunch is that vaccine rollout was fast, booster rollout isn't as fast:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

They're going through the ambulant 75+ (at least those with family/friends as drivers) group fast but they've got big issues due to GPs having basically had to step back from the process. Mundane things, like free taxis to vaccine centres etc might help, but reactivating the GP/nurse teams who helped the carehomes and the mostly housebound etc last time is needed as well. There's no doubt that resources are thinner this time and it's not as easy for some of the key risk groups to take up the offer.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Interesting. Thanks.

Plans in Ireland as follows:

The Health Service Executive will begin administering booster vaccines to more than 800,000 people aged between 60 and 80 at the start of November, health chiefs expect. Most over-70s are likely to be given boosters in their local GP surgery, while those aged between 60 and 70 are likely to get them in mass vaccination centres.

Officials are currently working on the details of the rollout of the boosters, which was approved by the Cabinet on Tuesday. Officials say that with two million doses of the Pfizer vaccine in stock, supply in not an issue.

However, some people in this age cohort will have to wait for the vaccine, as six months will have to have elapsed since they received their second, regular dose of Covid-19 vaccine.

Looks like at least two week delay between giving ok and actually getting needles into arms. Although if a proportion of them are still within 6 months of second dose that does make this a little less urgent. Be nice to get all >60s done before mid-winter though.

 

[golden_blunder]

Can Covid affect your ears/hearing? I'm vaccinated and I was sick about a week ago, lasted a day or so and I feel fine now but ever since I've had slight discomfort in my right ear and muffled hearing .

Maybe a bad head cold or ear infection? Best to get it checked out

 

[golden_blunder]

Hmmm I think my vaccination was May so by counting 6 months will be up next month. May have to so some hiding in the house again til booster time whenever that may be
On the plus I’m getting my flu jab tomorrow

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Hmmm I think my vaccination was May so by counting 6 months will be up next month. May have to so some hiding in the house again til booster time whenever that may be
On the plus I’m getting my flu jab tomorrow

Did you get bumped up the queue originally because of health issues? They’re already boosting immune compromised so your GP might be able to sort you out.

 

[golden_blunder]

Did you get bumped up the queue originally because of health issues? They’re already boosting immune compromised so your GP might be able to sort you out.

I don’t think so, or if I did it wasn’t by long. The gp rang me the day after I’d been vaxxed

 

[FootyGirl88]

Are we heading for another lockdown?

 

[11101]

I don't think it is that simple. I think the UK (government, public health and population) has given up any belief in eradication and is now full steam ahead for endemic. There's an assumption that we'll all be exposed to the virus (now, next month, next year) and we'll either be vaxxed or unvaxxed when we catch it.

The only real difference between the approaches being suggested by most of the key scientists relate to mitigation, not to principle. Mitigation matters most if you can vaccinate more people, or if you have a better vaccine or better treatments coming through, so you can buy time to save lives.

Which is where the arguments are focused: wait for boosters? Wait for under U16s? Wait for vaccine passports to kick in? The English (even more than the UK as a whole) are currently assuming that the U16s will be ok, and that those at risk will either stay home or get a vaccine/booster. Meanwhile, the more people who catch covid now, the fewer immune naive people there will be to infect later this winter.

Grim as it might sound, the assumption is that the bulk of hospitalisations/deaths can only be delayed (aka the curve flattened) not avoided. In this model, only testing (before you go to work, visit granny, get on a bus) is useful on the mitigation side - as it may help other people avoid risks.

It is absolutely brutal for the immune compromised, those who can't take the vaccine, those who got too scared/over-confident to take a vaccine, and those who got vaccinated but are still unlucky.

It's also not great for the rest of us, who maybe can't get routine medical treatment. It must be painful and exhausting for the medical and care staff trying to cope. But does a longer, slower battle really do that much to change that? That's the great unknown, and I really do think it's an unknown at this stage.

TLDR: not just about money.

Why have they given up on that belief though? The public is by and large following the mixed messaging from the government. The rest of the world is still attempting to keep the virus at bay as much as possible, it is only the UK that has diverged from common opinion at so many steps along the way of this pandemic. British exceptionalism? Or a knowledge that the economy needs to be the priority. All this business as usual talk from Boris Johnson suggests the priority has always been the economy.

 

[jojojo]

For anyone wondering what's happening to the U16s who are currently experiencing the bulk of the infections in England:

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— Twitter API (@user) date

Not the whole story of course, as long covid can also have a massive impact on young lives, but it is part of the picture of why JCVI were so reticent about recommending vaccinations for U16s. It also helps explain why the UK authorities more or less ignore half the cases being reported each day - except to tell the infected not to visit granny.

As to why the hospitalisations aren't rising and falling with case rates, some of that may be down to vaccination of the clinically vulnerable under 18s. Beyond that, a bit of a statistical mystery - but at least a mystery in the broadly good news direction.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

For anyone wondering what's happening to the U16s who are currently experiencing the bulk of the infections in England:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Not the whole story of course, as long covid can also have a massive impact on young lives, but it is part of the picture of why JCVI were so reticent about recommending vaccinations for U16s. It also helps explain why the UK authorities more or less ignore half the cases being reported each day - except to tell the infected not to visit granny.

As to why the hospitalisations aren't rising and falling with case rates, some of that may be down to vaccination of the clinically vulnerable under 18s. Beyond that, a bit of a statistical mystery - but at least a mystery in the broadly good news direction.

I don’t think that’s true. This is recent - and unexpected - data so couldn’t possibly have influenced the JCVI decision.

Haven’t they started vaccinating 12-15 yo’s already? Isn’t that the most obvious factor in what we’re seeing here? (some kids vaccinated now vs zero kids vaccinated in July)