Surely this capacity issue is why/when we needed the nightingale hospitals though no??
Staff shortages is a separate issue but there needed and needs to be a massive incentive to get nurses / doctors in place.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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Staff shortages is a separate issue but there needed and needs to be a massive incentive to get nurses / doctors in place.
Most of the nightingale hospitals have closed, a lot of them never saw patients. They needed the same staff that the hospital ICUs and high dependency units needed.
Some areas have been able to reorganize so they can keep certain hospitals/wings covid free. But most areas still get stuck when it comes to ICU places and A&E. It's not that the units are "overwhelmed" as in full (though some are sending patients to neighbouring hospitals and have ambulances queuing outside). It's more that they're too full to do their normal job, that includes things like ICUs looking after heart operation patients for a couple of days after surgery, so people wait longer for "routine" care.
We didn't have the capacity before the pandemic, and covid has loaded extra work on the system.
GPs are in the same boat - Javid can make his cheap shots about them needing to get back to normal, seeing people face to face. But there are fewer now than there were 5 years ago. The shortages are worst in the most deprived areas (where health outcomes are usually worse). Now they're supposed to be dealing with the booster program.
As to whether the tactics work and we start seeing hospitalisations and deaths fall - in time for Christmas and the flu season - we should see over the next month.
Not a chance - unless something goes wrong with the vaccine/booster rollout and/or we see a variant emerge that can evade the vaccine. If death/hospital rates jumped massively then maybe, but I don't believe even Boris would then have the nerve to say you can still go to the pub but we'll send the police round to confiscate the turkey if you have the family round at home.
We might hear some pre-emptive buck passing from ministers, so they can do their "told you so" speech later if it goes wrong. Hopefully though they'll get someone the public like, like JvT, to remind people to do LFTs before they meet, to open the windows, to get boosters if eligible etc.
You just can't get them. Intensive care nurses are hard to find.
Thanks. A very informative read. And yes I read every single word.
They will end up replacing the shortage from Europe with more Indian & nurses from the Philippines. That will please the brexit gang
And inevitably that was also spin! The booking system appeared to change a few hours after Javid's speech (despite him implying that it was just lazy oldies not taking up the booster offer - despite the booking system telling them they couldn't) but actually the back end hasn't changed yet so people just ended up with "not allowed" after they entered their "allowed according to the rules" data.
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The booking system is accepting 12-15s now though, but only for certain vaccine sites so potentially not for people's local ones. Walk-in sites currently look like the better bet, but no one seems to be quite sure if all sites are allowed to deal with 12-15s - certainly some walk-in sites are saying explicitly no boosters at this stage.
Yes, this is a problem because countries like India and certainly some of the African countries need to keep their own nurses and doctors. It's different when we recruited Spanish and German nurses, those are wealthy countries.
Oh I know that, I didn’t mean by magic - but perhaps through incentives (like a decent wage) practitioners that have left the profession might return.
The pay / conditions point is a longer term issue but the gap has to be plugged one way or another…
One for the geeks. I keep mentioning the modelling that the government is using. The latest updates to the guidance are here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/sage-meetings-october-2021
SPI-M-O contains the models for hospital admissions over the next 6 months. They look at various scenarios depending on how fast the vaccines (and boosters) wane and how close we go to our pre-pandemic behaviour. Broadly though, if we behave as we are doing now, the boosters rollout works and the boosters (at least) restore efficacy for at least 6 months then hospital admission rates are currently at/about their peak, they'll decline through November and will keep falling as we go through the flu season. If we mix more (Christmas parties? Family get togethers?) - the risks get higher, but provided the vaccines hold up, hospitalisations don't go much above where we are now (but they don't go down to make way for flu or for other kinds of medical care).
The "considerations for impact of Plan B" talks about likely outcomes of the Plan B mitigations if used. Their basic conclusion is that the biggest actual hit on case rates would be a return to more WfH. Though they suggest that masks and vaccine passes will contribute to steadying the levels as well. Psychologically though, triggering Plan B might trip us to stay at our current mixing level, rather than getting bolder.
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/sage-meetings-october-2021
SPI-M-O contains the models for hospital admissions over the next 6 months. They look at various scenarios depending on how fast the vaccines (and boosters) wane and how close we go to our pre-pandemic behaviour. Broadly though, if we behave as we are doing now, the boosters rollout works and the boosters (at least) restore efficacy for at least 6 months then hospital admission rates are currently at/about their peak, they'll decline through November and will keep falling as we go through the flu season. If we mix more (Christmas parties? Family get togethers?) - the risks get higher, but provided the vaccines hold up, hospitalisations don't go much above where we are now (but they don't go down to make way for flu or for other kinds of medical care).
The "considerations for impact of Plan B" talks about likely outcomes of the Plan B mitigations if used. Their basic conclusion is that the biggest actual hit on case rates would be a return to more WfH. Though they suggest that masks and vaccine passes will contribute to steadying the levels as well. Psychologically though, triggering Plan B might trip us to stay at our current mixing level, rather than getting bolder.
So now we know.
Over 100,000 new Covid cases and almost 300 deaths in the last two days are not a cause for concern....
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...t-all-measures-under-constant-review-12441386
Over 100,000 new Covid cases and almost 300 deaths in the last two days are not a cause for concern....
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...t-all-measures-under-constant-review-12441386
It's time for Plan B.
Even the thickest of bastards would be able to learn something from how Covid has progressed in the UK...but Boris & co are beyond that.
Even the thickest of bastards would be able to learn something from how Covid has progressed in the UK...but Boris & co are beyond that.
Plan B please
They don’t have the political capital yet for Plan B. They have to wait until it’s literally desperation and thousands of deaths per day before they can be seen to give in to external pressures and bring in new restrictions.
We all know the reality of what this is going to mean and it’s holding out until everyone has had their Christmas and a minimum 4 week full lock down in January.
We all know the reality of what this is going to mean and it’s holding out until everyone has had their Christmas and a minimum 4 week full lock down in January.
Cases are bound to decline towards end of next week (kids off school). Or a slow down in the growth. We just need to get through this winter and so have the hope we can get through every winter if we provide boosters annually. Deaths will continue. People keep asking what's an acceptable count. Ask anyone and all will have a different opinion. There's no easy answer and the balance between avoiding restrictions and keeping the pressure on the NHS low is so fragile.
My only hope is cyclical reinfections will render this virus weaker and weaker. On top of boosters. Not sure if the majority of hospitalizations are unvaccinated still. Havnt looked recently. If so, this is disappointing..
My only hope is cyclical reinfections will render this virus weaker and weaker. On top of boosters. Not sure if the majority of hospitalizations are unvaccinated still. Havnt looked recently. If so, this is disappointing..
The majority of hospitalisations among the under 50s are unvaxxed. But the hospitalisation risks are much higher in the 70+, almost all of them are vaccinated, and so most of the hospitalisations in that age group are vaxxed. If you look at individual odds of course, you're safer vaxxed than unvaxxed at any age. Boosters will have a huge impact on the 50+ hospitalisations, if the early results from Pfizer and Israel are confirmed.
In terms of deaths/hospitalisations what the government are working with (even if they don't want to be heard saying it at a press conference) is the idea that they can get away with 1000 hospitalisations/day and 1000 deaths/week. But they can't get away with those indefinitely. If the boosters work (and the rollout speeds up and places like carehomes don't get forgotten) then we'll see the hospitalisations/deaths start falling sometime in November.
If the boosters don't work or the rollout stalls (which may have already happened in the carehome sector) then they'll have to hit the panic button. Whether Plan B starts now or not, the outcome relies on the boosters. They've gone for a vaccines only approach, most of their health/science advisors would probably have gone vaccines+ mostly to concentrate people's minds on the problem (encourage testing/vaccines). The stats currently say it's too close to call.
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Don't need to wear a mask when you're meeting people you know, great news! Or does Boris just not want to wear a mask?
95% hospitalised people unvaxxed in NL
Who knows. But my main concern is that he is giving those who simply cannot be bothered to do the right thing an excuse not to.
In Paris at the moment. Fascinating how different people behave here to when I was in London recently. Very close to 100% compliance with mask wearing. None of the racial/ethnic divides re masks that was so obvious in London.
Obviously, the difference that masks make in controlling the epidemic is debatable but I always think they’re a useful visible proxy for people doing all the other stuff. Including, presumably, getting vaccinated. All of which helps explain the huge difference between case numbers in the UK and France.
Obviously, the difference that masks make in controlling the epidemic is debatable but I always think they’re a useful visible proxy for people doing all the other stuff. Including, presumably, getting vaccinated. All of which helps explain the huge difference between case numbers in the UK and France.
France aren't finding it plain sailing though, even with the low case rates. They've currently got about 6.5k hospitalised compared to the UK's 8.5k. As much as I'd like it to be about cheap fixes like masks, particularly on public transport and in shops etc (ie: places those who know they're vulnerable can avoid), I think reopening is a tough project and a lot of countries will find this winter hard.
I definitely don’t think masks are a quick fix. I’m not even convinced they’re a slow fix! It’s just that they give the impression in Paris that everyone is in this together and all pulling in the same direction. Which I didn’t expect and definitely didn’t see in London.
Oof, 263 deaths in UK today! Ok, shit got real now. 
Oof, 263 deaths in UK today! Ok, shit got real now.
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New measures will be introduced in NL next week, thats the word on the street and I hope it's true
Not all purely on one day, the 263 are highlighted in orange. Average deaths look to be dropping on this chart here (obviously not taking into account the lag).Oof, 263 deaths in UK today! Ok, shit got real now.
Tuesday is usually the 'high' day when weekend lag is caught up, no? But recent previous highs have never hit 250+. That centred average line will be curving upwards if the rising case rates are finally translating to deaths.Not all purely on one day, the 263 are highlighted in orange. Average deaths look to be dropping on this chart here (obviously not taking into account the lag).
Very anecdotal, but I slept in the same bed as my girlfriend for 3 days whilst I unknowingly had COVID a couple of weeks ago. She had got her booster exactly 14 days beforehand (she’s a Dr), and she remained resolutely COVID free - confirmed via a PCR and numerous lat flows.
It's weird, I know couples where one has had it and the other never got it. Or the kids got it and neither parent did. Houses of 5-6 people where only 1 got it. This was before most people were jabbed too. It still seems random as hell who actually catches it.
Then I know people who have got it from basically being nowhere near anyone.
Deaths are up by 7% on this time last week, I see your point of the reported daily number being high but I think some perspective is needed in the context of where those deaths are falling. It's not as though all 250+ happened yesterday, when we had reporting of deaths from 7 days ago in those numbers. The weekly average is the metric to look at, and more so hospitalisation being the all important metric.Tuesday is usually the 'high' day when weekend lag is caught up, no? But recent previous highs have never hit 250+. That centred average line will be curving upwards if the rising case rates are finally translating to deaths.
My dad is in his late 60’s, overweight with multiple health conditions and slept in the same bed as my mum who unknowingly had Covid for about 10 days. He was exactly 15 days post 2nd jab. Turns out mum was getting severe Covid and spent 3 weeks in ICU thereafter. Dad tested negative twice.
The vaccines are incredible, no matter what the idiotic Insta models think.
There are signs that UK case rates are falling - what we don't know yet is whether that's just another bump on the "more or less steady adult case rate" we've had since July, or if it's the start of a real fall. Vaccine rates are about to hit 90% of all 18+, the first 6.5m boosters have been done. About 30% of the population have covid antibodies from past infection.Tuesday is usually the 'high' day when weekend lag is caught up, no? But recent previous highs have never hit 250+. That centred average line will be curving upwards if the rising case rates are finally translating to deaths.
In some parts of the country it looks like we've hit a kind of herd immunity, and rates in some areas are definitely falling. Other areas look more fragile. Some areas/groups where the boosters aren't going out quickly enough (including some carehomes) look very fragile.
Overall though, if the main statistical models are accurate and we don't change our behaviour to mix/socialise more, and booster and first vaccination doses keep rolling out, then hospitalisations are at their peak, they'll fall in the first half of November and deaths will fall soon after. Will it turn out that way? Too close to call, too many unknowns on the vaccine rollout and particularly on how people's behaviour will change as it gets colder and the party season approaches.
I think hand hygiene is massive, especially in a house where someone has it.
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So I had a bloodtest to show I was double vaccinated and I got a reading of 82 and my wife got 390. I had my jabs in Feb and May, hers were in April and June, all AZ.
Does the impact wear off that quick or is a large part of that reflective of my underlying health -liver, lung and kidney- issues?
Does the impact wear off that quick or is a large part of that reflective of my underlying health -liver, lung and kidney- issues?
There’s huge person to person variability, independent of any underlying health issues. So you both could have got identical results even if you had the internal organs of a 20 year old triathlete.
Presuming the results are antibody levels, I wouldn’t worry too much. They can fall away without too much of a reduction in actual protection. If every antibody we produced in response to a vaccine/antigen stayed around forever your blood would eventually turn to sludge.
That’s great doctors have had a booster already. Still waiting in Ireland.
Thanks, I guess mine are wearing out just as cases over here rise to record highs though.Amazingly irresponsible bit of journalism by the Guardian here.
They’re reporting on a new study in the Lancet analysing household transmission of delta variant.
The key findings are as follows:
Guess what headline/sub-headline they went with?
They’re reporting on a new study in the Lancet analysing household transmission of delta variant.
The key findings are as follows:
So. Less likely to catch it from a household member if you’re vaccinated and if you do get infected you clear the infection sooner.
Guess what headline/sub-headline they went with?
Jabs do not reduce risk of passing Covid within household, study suggests
Research reveals fully vaccinated people are just as likely to pass virus on to those they share a home with
An official milestone of 5,000,000 deaths due to Covid has been reported. And it is of course highly likely that this figure is much lower than the actual number by a wide margin.