SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

jojojo

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A snapshot of how Europe's looking at the moment. Different countries are actually at different points on the case rate curve. Poland, for example, is coming back down from a peak. Others, like Germany, are still rising.

 

Champ

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Would appear to be pretty conclusive evidence regarding vaccines now!!
 

Massive Spanner

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The Soviets really did a number on Eastern Europe!

Mad that we have even higher vaccination rates than the Nordics. Almost makes me think that most Irish people aren't complete idiots after all... nah.
 

golden_blunder

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The Soviets really did a number on Eastern Europe!

Mad that we have even higher vaccination rates than the Nordics. Almost makes me think that most Irish people aren't complete idiots after all... nah.
They probably thought any free drug is a drug. Nah that’s harsh. Somehow we’ve got 93% vaxxed. No idea how!
 

Pogue Mahone

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The Soviets really did a number on Eastern Europe!

Mad that we have even higher vaccination rates than the Nordics. Almost makes me think that most Irish people aren't complete idiots after all... nah.
They probably thought any free drug is a drug. Nah that’s harsh. Somehow we’ve got 93% vaxxed. No idea how!
Apparently our CFR is the lowest in the EU. Which gives me hope that we can get through crazy high case numbers without a lockdown.
 

Massive Spanner

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They probably thought any free drug is a drug. Nah that’s harsh. Somehow we’ve got 93% vaxxed. No idea how!
:D I'm pretty sure we've one of the most educated adult populations in Europe, percentage wage. The Celtic Tiger really paid off in droves with that. Would assume there's a direct correlation as Portugal also have a very highly educated population. Plus the lack of a far right party is probably a biggie. Just look at the effect it's had on Austria.
 

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When they say "over 40", does that include people aged 40 or not?
 

golden_blunder

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:D I'm pretty sure we've one of the most educated adult populations in Europe, percentage wage. The Celtic Tiger really paid off in droves with that. Would assume there's a direct correlation as Portugal also have a very highly educated population. Plus the lack of a far right party is probably a biggie. Just look at the effect it's had on Austria.
Good points. Especially the right wing point. I know of people from Eastern Europe who seem to have been swayed. Sensible people that I used to work with
 

Pogue Mahone

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Sorry what’s CFR?
Case fatality rate. Number of confirmed cases divided by number dead. Basically the % chance of the average Irish person dying from covid if they catch it.

A very low CFR means we’re better than most at identifying cases, treating them or avoiding bad outcomes through vaccination (most likely vaccines main driver here)
 

11101

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A snapshot of how Europe's looking at the moment. Different countries are actually at different points on the case rate curve. Poland, for example, is coming back down from a peak. Others, like Germany, are still rising.

I wonder why Belgium is faring badly and Slovakia is doing so well. Actually, Slovakia i think i know why.

For reference the UK sits at 68.7% fully vaccinated and 32 deaths per million.
 

King Eric 7

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Our young boy has brought covid home from school and has infected only my wife so far. She didn't stand a chance really with his constant sneezing and coughing in her face.

Wondering what my chances of catching it are? I'd take 50% right now with two out of four of us infected!
 

jojojo

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I wonder why Belgium is faring badly and Slovakia is doing so well. Actually, Slovakia i think i know why.

For reference the UK sits at 68.7% fully vaccinated and 32 deaths per million.
The EU chart is using adult vaccination stats. The most comparable figure from the UK is 80% double vaxxed (88% single vaxxed) amongst over 12s.

Slovakia has been seeing cases rise over the past couple of weeks again . I don't know what the lag is in their death reporting. Broadly - peak deaths will happen around 2/3 weeks behind peak cases. But the detail depends on how cases are distributed (age groups) and what vaccine coverage looks like in the over 70s (over 40s for hospitalisations). Do they have a young population?
 

11101

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The EU chart is using adult vaccination stats. The most comparable figure from the UK is 80% double vaxxed (88% single vaxxed) amongst over 12s.

Slovakia has been seeing cases rise over the past couple of weeks again . I don't know what the lag is in their death reporting. Broadly - peak deaths will happen around 2/3 weeks behind peak cases. But the detail depends on how cases are distributed (age groups) and what vaccine coverage looks like in the over 70s (over 40s for hospitalisations). Do they have a young population?
The makes the UK a bit of an outlier then. They're 3 times higher than they should be.

Slovakia - they've had Covid rules in place that might have skewed the demographic catching it, but that region has been blighted by underreporting all the way through. Can you trust their figures?
 

Pogue Mahone

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The makes the UK a bit of an outlier then. They're 3 times higher than they should be.

Slovakia - they've had Covid rules in place that might have skewed the demographic catching it, but that region has been blighted by underreporting all the way through. Can you trust their figures?
Presumably that’s because earlier vaccine rollout than EU means higher proportion of people with waning vaccine efficacy.
 

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:D I'm pretty sure we've one of the most educated adult populations in Europe, percentage wage. The Celtic Tiger really paid off in droves with that. Would assume there's a direct correlation as Portugal also have a very highly educated population. Plus the lack of a far right party is probably a biggie. Just look at the effect it's had on Austria.
Even before the pandemic, the National Healthcare Service and the National Vaccination Program were two of the most trusted public institutions in Portugal, so the hesitation was almost non-existent. The far-right with their bs imported from the US are breaching this, though, but their numbers are still very very low.
 

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Tried to get a PCR test earlier (UK) only to be told their were non available and to check back later. That's helpful.

Taken a lateral flow everyday for 5 days and all negative but this cough is doing my head in so want to be 100%.
 

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Tried to get a PCR test earlier (UK) only to be told their were non available and to check back later. That's helpful.

Taken a lateral flow everyday for 5 days and all negative but this cough is doing my head in so want to be 100%.
Sounds like it's just a cough
 

Kaos

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Tried to get a PCR test earlier (UK) only to be told their were non available and to check back later. That's helpful.

Taken a lateral flow everyday for 5 days and all negative but this cough is doing my head in so want to be 100%.
Could be a respiratory tract infection. I've had that the last few weeks, and it seems to be doing the rounds.
 

McGrathsipan

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There is alot of talk about vaccines in children.

So if the vaccine doesnt stop transmission and Corona isnt really dangerous to kids why would they need to get vaccinated?
 

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There is alot of talk about vaccines in children.

So if the vaccine doesnt stop transmission and Corona isnt really dangerous to kids why would they need to get vaccinated?
The vaccine makes transmission less likely. No-on wants Covid going round and round groups of unvaccinated children, who are then in contact with older people at home. It's not just about the person being vaccinated, it's also about everyone else - as is always the case with public health issues.

My great-nephew had Covid recently, he's 12. Although he wasn't very ill, he's still struggling with fatigue weeks later. His parents are very pro-vaccine, but he was just too young to get one before he caught Covid at school.
 

jojojo

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There is alot of talk about vaccines in children.

So if the vaccine doesnt stop transmission and Corona isnt really dangerous to kids why would they need to get vaccinated?
It does reduce transmission. In kids it massively reduces infection rates (and if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on), and it reduces severity (and transmission) in those unlucky enough to catch it. That also reduces the number of school days etc they miss, as well as any spin-offs in terms of protecting classmates and other people.

The "dangerous to kids" thing is relative. Covid is more dangerous to kids (in terms of deaths/hospitalisations) than the covid vaccine. There's also still a lot of debate about what proportion of under 18s who do catch covid have lasting (one month plus) after-effects, but again those long covid issues are far more common than vaccine after effects.

In the UK, the MHRA/JCVI have gone for a slow and cautious approach but still recommended a single dose for 12-15s and a double dose for 16+.
 

2cents

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Just got a positive reading on an Antigen test. Horrible sore throat and cough right now, going for the PCR tomorrow.
 

antsmithmk

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Just got a positive reading on an Antigen test. Horrible sore throat and cough right now, going for the PCR tomorrow.
You know you've got it.

We've got it in the house at the minute. 2xpositive lateral flows... We've been for the PCR and it's confirmed what we already knew.

Hopefully you don't suffer too much.
 

2cents

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You know you've got it.

We've got it in the house at the minute. 2xpositive lateral flows... We've been for the PCR and it's confirmed what we already knew.

Hopefully you don't suffer too much.
Yep, five in our house and we’re all coughing. Including my three month old which is a bit concerning.
 

Wibble

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It does reduce transmission. In kids it massively reduces infection rates (and if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on), and it reduces severity (and transmission) in those unlucky enough to catch it. That also reduces the number of school days etc they miss, as well as any spin-offs in terms of protecting classmates and other people.

The "dangerous to kids" thing is relative. Covid is more dangerous to kids (in terms of deaths/hospitalisations) than the covid vaccine. There's also still a lot of debate about what proportion of under 18s who do catch covid have lasting (one month plus) after-effects, but again those long covid issues are far more common than vaccine after effects.

In the UK, the MHRA/JCVI have gone for a slow and cautious approach but still recommended a single dose for 12-15s and a double dose for 16+.
Not to mention that if you want to get to HIT you need to vaccinate kids U12. We are going to pass 95% adult vaccination in some states (and 90+% nationally I'd guess) and the 12+'s are catching up fast but unless you vaccinate kids under 12 that almost certainly won't be enough of the total population to get to HIT, given that the vaccines aren't sterilising.

And we routinely vaccinate kids to protect them and protect the whole population so why treat this as any different?
 
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Pogue Mahone

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Not to mention that if you want to get to HIT you need to vaccinate kids U12. We are going to pass 95% adult vaccination in some states (and 90+% nationally I'd guess) and the 12+'s are catching up fast but unless you vaccinate kids under 12 that almost certainly won't be enough of the total population to get to HIT, given that the vaccines aren't sterilising.

And we routinely vaccinate kids to protect them and protect the whole population so why treat this as any different?
What do you mean by HIT in this context? Eradicating the delta variant is off the table, unfortunately. Not with this generation of vaccines anyway. The higher the vaccination levels (and boosters) the better the health service will cope but there isn’t any specific threshold we should be aiming for.

So any decision re vaccinating young kids should be based on risk vs benefit in those young kids. Which is the same approach we always us when vaccinating kids. But with this virus the risk following infection is so low it makes for a tricky decision.
 

Wibble

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What do you mean by HIT in this context? Eradicating the delta variant is off the table, unfortunately. Not with this generation of vaccines anyway. The higher the vaccination levels (and boosters) the better the health service will cope but there isn’t any specific threshold we should be aiming for.

So any decision re vaccinating young kids should be based on risk vs benefit in those young kids. Which is the same approach we always us when vaccinating kids. But with this virus the risk following infection is so low it makes for a tricky decision.
Is it even for Delta given it looks like Delta isn't as infectious as we first though, or at least that was what a few things I read recently suggested? Current HIT estimates seem to be 80-88% for Delta and with the Delta tweaked Pfizer (and maybe Moderna) vaccines on the way we could be in the ballpark in the few places who have high enough vaccination rates and booster/third shots.

And I totally disagree with basing childhood vaccination on individual risk/reward. Kids are part of society as well and should be vaccinated for the greater good just like everyone else.
 
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Sarni

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A snapshot of how Europe's looking at the moment. Different countries are actually at different points on the case rate curve. Poland, for example, is coming back down from a peak. Others, like Germany, are still rising.

We are not coming back from any peak. There are no restrictions whatsoever. Most people won’t even care to quarantine when tested, we got about 45% vaccinated (with another 5% using false certificates) and approx 30% of our population do not believe COVID exists.

Our cases number is dictated purely by the number of tests we can perform each day. Our government straight up admit they won’t do anything because they fear that people will not like any restrictions. Hospitals are packed, doctors are overloaded and nobody cares about the 500-600 dying everyday as long as they can carry on with their normal lives.

If we increase tests capacity, which we will have to do by Christmas, we will be hitting 50k a day easily. 1k deaths per day should be quite easy too.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Is it even for Delta given it looks like Delta isn't as infectious as we first though, or at least that was what a few things I read recently suggested? Current HIT estimates seem to be 80-88% for Delta and with the Delta tweaked Pfizer (and maybe Moderna) vaccines on the way we could be in the ballpark in the few places who have high enough vaccination rates and booster/third shots.

And I totally disagree with basing childhood vaccination on individual risk/reward. Kids are part of society as well and should be vaccinated for the greater good just like everyone else.
Nobody is ever vaccinated for anything other than their own benefit. The greater good is secondary. You can’t ethically medicate anyone if the individual risk is greater than the individual benefit. Diseases like measles, mumps and rubella can have devastating consequences for kids so vaccinating them is a no brainer. With SARS-COV-2 it’s a much much harder decision. And gets more and more difficult the younger the children are.

Re HIT have you any links about delta being less infectious then previously thought? I’ve read nothing remotely positive about it. And would be amazed if <90 vaccine coverage could eradicate it. I haven’t heard a single expert talk about HIT as a concept we should be aiming for since delta took over.
 

Wibble

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Nobody is ever vaccinated for anything other than their own benefit. The greater good is secondary. You can’t ethically medicate anyone if the individual risk is greater than the individual benefit. Diseases like measles, mumps and rubella can have devastating consequences for kids so vaccinating them is a no brainer. With SARS-COV-2 it’s a much much harder decision. And gets more and more difficult the younger the children are.
And I totally disagree with that approach. The primary goal of vaccination should be for the greater good and the secondary one individual. I drive very safely but I don't think I should be exempt from seatbelt or chrashhelmet laws.

Re HIT have you any links about delta being less infectious then previously thought? I’ve read nothing remotely positive about it. And would be amazed if <90 vaccine coverage could eradicate it. I haven’t heard a single expert talk about HIT as a concept we should be aiming for since delta took over.
I'll try to find it. I think it was a Chief Medical officer here in Au who was saying they thought that we were controlling Delta faster than anticipated partly due to overestimating how infectious Delta was partly die to the demographics of where the spread was occurring (high density housing/multi-generational households) so the effect of vaccination in these areas was greater than anticipated. I'll see if I can find it.

HIT is probably unlikely even if the Delta tweaked vaccines are much better because most countries aren't going to get a high enough vaccination rate. Even here in AU some states will exceed 95% of adults (ACT is already over 100% first shot), 90%+ of 12+ and probably 80%+ of 5+, but the overall rate for adults might not get past 90% in some states particularly in country/right wing areas.

Interestingly we are likely to keep some mask mandates here in NSW even after we top 95% of adults fully vaxxed.
 

jojojo

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We are not coming back from any peak. There are no restrictions whatsoever. Most people won’t even care to quarantine when tested, we got about 45% vaccinated (with another 5% using false certificates) and approx 30% of our population do not believe COVID exists.

Our cases number is dictated purely by the number of tests we can perform each day. Our government straight up admit they won’t do anything because they fear that people will not like any restrictions. Hospitals are packed, doctors are overloaded and nobody cares about the 500-600 dying everyday as long as they can carry on with their normal lives.

If we increase tests capacity, which we will have to do by Christmas, we will be hitting 50k a day easily. 1k deaths per day should be quite easy too.
Yep, looks like I got misled by a temporary blip in the data. Which I shouldn't do, as I know that case rates are massively misleading and that death rates in particular are prone to delayed reporting and a kind of political massaging.

In terms of the LSHTM model for risk level for European countries, Poland remains very high up the list.
 

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The Soviets really did a number on Eastern Europe!

Mad that we have even higher vaccination rates than the Nordics. Almost makes me think that most Irish people aren't complete idiots after all... nah.
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