SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

jojojo

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Is it even for Delta given it looks like Delta isn't as infectious as we first though, or at least that was what a few things I read recently suggested? Current HIT estimates seem to be 80-88% for Delta and with the Delta tweaked Pfizer (and maybe Moderna) vaccines on the way we could be in the ballpark in the few places who have high enough vaccination rates and booster/third shots.

And I totally disagree with basing childhood vaccination on individual risk/reward. Kids are part of society as well and should be vaccinated for the greater good just like everyone else.
The UK is already over 90% previously infected or vaxxed and still showing antibodies. We're not at HIT even within subgroups. It's very unlikely that there is a realistic HIT of simultaneous immunity that can push the R rate of Delta reliably below 1 - especially in countries where life is spent largely indoors for months at a time.

In the UK, we are approaching what looks like an endemic balance with vaccine boosters providing something close to temporary immunity and pushing the disease into a much milder form for almost everyone.

On the broader point about vaccinating kids for the good of the herd. I don't buy it, it has to remain a risk-benefit analysis for children. Though I'm happy to include things like open schools, no limitations on play/sports/socialising, no masks and similar mitigations, no limits on travel, no fear of accidentally killing granny etc in the benefit column.

The individual driven analysis always has to be done though. The UK regulators are cautious on the subject - they still haven't approved a second dose for 12-15s for example. They may never do it. Personally, I'm glad about that, it means they take it seriously.
 

11101

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We are tightening the rules still further in Italy on the unvaccinated.

- From 6 December there will be a 'Super' Green Pass that is only for vaccinated or recovered, no more negative tests allowed, and the duration of the second dose validity reduces to 9 months. This will be required for restaurants, cinemas, theatres, gyms etc. Essentially any leisure activities. From December the third dose is open to all adults.

- The regular Green Pass that includes negative tests will now only be valid for going to work and travelling, but it will be required for all travel, even commuter rail/buses.

- Vaccination is being made compulsory for all teachers, military, police and public aid workers. It's already compulsory for healthcare staff.

Basically the message is get vaccinated and life goes back to normal.
 

Pogue Mahone

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We are tightening the rules still further in Italy on the unvaccinated.

- From 6 December there will be a 'Super' Green Pass that is only for vaccinated or recovered, no more negative tests allowed, and the duration of the second dose validity reduces to 9 months. This will be required for restaurants, cinemas, theatres, gyms etc. Essentially any leisure activities. From December the third dose is open to all adults.

- The regular Green Pass that includes negative tests will now only be valid for going to work and travelling, but it will be required for all travel, even commuter rail/buses.

- Vaccination is being made compulsory for all teachers, military, police and public aid workers. It's already compulsory for healthcare staff.

Basically the message is get vaccinated and life goes back to normal.
Jaysus. Checking vaccine certs getting on buses and trains will be a headache. I was in Paris recently where they were checked going into museums and art galleries and the queues were monstrous.
 

11101

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Jaysus. Checking vaccine certs getting on buses and trains will be a headache. I was in Paris recently where they were checked going into museums and art galleries and the queues were monstrous.
People are used to it. I go to the San Siro quite a lot and by now people know to expect the checks and get themselves prepared, queues are no different than they were before Covid. Still, I'm guessing they will only bother to check in terminus stations and hubs. There's no way they could check on most local railway stations where people come from all directions including the tracks.

Currently the new rules apply until mid January so it could just be something they're doing to see us through the winter peak.
 

F-Red

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We are tightening the rules still further in Italy on the unvaccinated.

- From 6 December there will be a 'Super' Green Pass that is only for vaccinated or recovered, no more negative tests allowed, and the duration of the second dose validity reduces to 9 months. This will be required for restaurants, cinemas, theatres, gyms etc. Essentially any leisure activities. From December the third dose is open to all adults.

- The regular Green Pass that includes negative tests will now only be valid for going to work and travelling, but it will be required for all travel, even commuter rail/buses.

- Vaccination is being made compulsory for all teachers, military, police and public aid workers. It's already compulsory for healthcare staff.

Basically the message is get vaccinated and life goes back to normal.
Why weren't the existing measures working? What's the ultimate goal the Italian government are aiming for?
 

11101

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Why weren't the existing measures working? What's the ultimate goal the Italian government are aiming for?
They were working. They are worried about another wave coming over winter. Covid has already killed a lot of the elderly but we still have the second oldest population in Europe.
 

Pogue Mahone

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They were working. They are worried about another wave coming over winter. Covid has already killed a lot of the elderly but we still have the second oldest population in Europe.
Not really. Cases are increasing. If the previous measures were working then they wouldn’t need new ones.

It looks like every country in Europe is going to have to negotiate this delta wave sooner (Uk) or later (Italy)
 

Wibble

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Jaysus. Checking vaccine certs getting on buses and trains will be a headache. I was in Paris recently where they were checked going into museums and art galleries and the queues were monstrous.
It is very little problem. We have to scan in to.all venues and show your electronic checkin. The same app shows your vaccination status linked to your Medicare record. Zero hassle.
 

groovyalbert

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Not really. Cases are increasing. If the previous measures were working then they wouldn’t need new ones.

It looks like every country in Europe is going to have to negotiate this delta wave sooner (Uk) or later (Italy)
I thought the UK was tracking in a different way to most of Europe, and that cases were coming down/relatively stabilised since Oct - particularly in England?
 

11101

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Not really. Cases are increasing. If the previous measures were working then they wouldn’t need new ones.

It looks like every country in Europe is going to have to negotiate this delta wave sooner (Uk) or later (Italy)
Cases are expected to increase, it's just a matter of how much is allowed. This is a preventative measure mostly.

This is what they're most concerned with:

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/3638326/

I cant embed that but it's saying there are 4,500 people in hospital currently compared with 35,000 exactly one year ago. 500 in ICU compared with over 4,000 at the peak. As long as those lines stay smooth and low, they'll consider the measures successful.
 

Wibble

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Completely different scenario checking into venues and piling onto a bus or train when it pulls into the station.
We have to do exactly the same for public transport. That said this will mostly stop when we top 95% fully vaxxed soon. Masks on public transport and checking in to pubs and concerts will remain but not much else.
 

11101

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I thought the UK was tracking in a different way to most of Europe, and that cases were coming down/relatively stabilised since Oct - particularly in England?
The medium term trend is still going up and has been since August.
 

F-Red

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They were working. They are worried about another wave coming over winter. Covid has already killed a lot of the elderly but we still have the second oldest population in Europe.
If they were working, then they wouldn't need to move to a draconian next step surely?

I admire the confidence, but I don't believe those next steps will deal with the delta wave. There's an inevitability about it all, and mandatory vaccination for professions like teachers probably isn't the right approach to tackle the delta wave. Healthcare workers or those in care makes the most sense.
 

Pogue Mahone

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We have to do exactly the same for public transport. That said this will mostly stop when we top 95% fully vaxxed soon. Masks on public transport and checking in to pubs and concerts will remain but not much else.
Unfortunately, hitting x% fully vaxxed won’t necessarily mean a return to normality, as we’re finding out in Ireland. By the time the last few % get vaccinated the protection offered to the first cohort will already be waning. Cases increase again and the emphasis switches to boosters.

On the plus side, the increase in cases with waning vaccine efficacy won’t slam hospitals as badly as it would in an un-vaccinated population. So it is possible (hopefully) to avoid the lockdowns we’re seeing in countries with very low vax rates. In the longer term we have to hope that the third booster dose gives much longer/better protection than the first two. Early data on this is encouraging (although am anxiously checking Israel’s case rates every few days!).
 
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11101

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If they were working, then they wouldn't need to move to a draconian next step surely?

I admire the confidence, but I don't believe those next steps will deal with the delta wave. There's an inevitability about it all, and mandatory vaccination for professions like teachers probably isn't the right approach to tackle the delta wave. Healthcare workers or those in care makes the most sense.
Mandatory HCW vaccination was done months ago, teachers/police/military etc. is now about expanding it.

What we really have is Austria's lockdown for the unvaccinated. It just hasn't been announced as such.
 

Revan

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In Bayern/Bavaria, now to go to gym I need to do a test despite that I am vaccinated. This is extremely inconvenient. They are refusing to make a vaccine mandate, but making the life harder for the vaccinated seems ok.
 

horsechoker

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F-Red

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I thought the UK was tracking in a different way to most of Europe, and that cases were coming down/relatively stabilised since Oct - particularly in England?
It has been fairly stable in terms of the consistent number since the reopening. Various peaks and troughs on a linear level.

 

groovyalbert

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Snowjoe

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So I caught covid last week and my self isolation is up on Sunday, but my booster is booked for the 3rd and I read the UK says wait 28 days after a positive test to get the vaccine. Does it actually matter from the health standpoint? Can I just lie to them when I arrive…
 

Traub

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Without wanting to underplay this, but is SA/Botswana the best setting to assess the new variant against vaccines? What has the roll-out of vaccines been like there/which vaccines are in circulation?
Pretty poor to be honest in SA (not sure Botswana), so agreed on that front regarding vaccine efficacy. However, the sequencing has shown that this variant seems to have overtaken Delta which may indicate increased transmissibility.
 

Pexbo

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So I caught covid last week and my self isolation is up on Sunday, but my booster is booked for the 3rd and I read the UK says wait 28 days after a positive test to get the vaccine. Does it actually matter from the health standpoint? Can I just lie to them when I arrive…
Is there a benefit other than convenience? If you’ve just had COVID you’ve just had a booster of sorts?
 

Snowjoe

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Is there a benefit other than convenience? If you’ve just had COVID you’ve just had a booster of sorts?
I dunno if it gives you more of a boost. It’s just all the booster sessions here are Fridays and I’m busy every other weekend and don’t wanna ruin them with horrible side effects
 

F-Red

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So I caught covid last week and my self isolation is up on Sunday, but my booster is booked for the 3rd and I read the UK says wait 28 days after a positive test to get the vaccine. Does it actually matter from the health standpoint? Can I just lie to them when I arrive…
They have 28 days as a set period so that you fully recover, and are not contagious when arriving to get a jab.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I dunno if it gives you more of a boost. It’s just all the booster sessions here are Fridays and I’m busy every other weekend and don’t wanna ruin them with horrible side effects
To be honest, you could skip it altogether. If you were fully vaccinated in the summer then catching covid now gives you fantastic protection for at least another 6 months. Probably a lot longer.
 

Snowjoe

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To be honest, you could skip it altogether. If you were fully vaccinated in the summer then catching covid now gives you fantastic protection for at least another 6 months. Probably a lot longer.
So youre saying I’m invincible, excellent news
 

McGrathsipan

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Pretty poor to be honest in SA (not sure Botswana), so agreed on that front regarding vaccine efficacy. However, the sequencing has shown that this variant seems to have overtaken Delta which may indicate increased transmissibility.
Slowly inching back to square one aren't we.
 

The Cat

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To be honest, you could skip it altogether. If you were fully vaccinated in the summer then catching covid now gives you fantastic protection for at least another 6 months. Probably a lot longer.
I'm in the same boat but gonna get my booster end of next month nhs says I need 4 weeks between my positive test and the booster. Hopefully won't get it again for some time.
 

Stack

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Is there a benefit other than convenience? If you’ve just had COVID you’ve just had a booster of sorts?
I may have this wrong so best double check but I think I read somewhere that up to 1/4 of those who recover from covid dont produce antibodies. Hopefully someone can correct me or point me in the right direction.
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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With each of these new mutations seemingly worse than the last, isn’t it a matter of time before this virus and it’s variants spell the end of the human race? We’ve had a good run tbf
 

Pogue Mahone

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With each of these new mutations seemingly worse than the last, isn’t it a matter of time before this virus and it’s variants spell the end of the human race? We’ve had a good run tbf
The way I understand it is there’s a trade off as the mutations build up. It gets better at some things, worse at others. It may end up a lot more transmissible but much less severe (best case scenario) There are twists and turns to come, that’s for sure. This Nu variant has the potential to be an almighty cnut that’s for sure.