SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

jojojo

JoJoJoJoJoJoJo
Staff
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
38,243
Location
Welcome to Manchester reception committee
The WHO warned against the hoarding of vaccines from the off with this as one of the main reasons right?

Your final paragraph here represents my thoughts much better than Pogue’s claim.
To be honest, it was the mutations bit of the hoarding complaint that always confused me. The moral case that we were vaccinating people who were unlikely to die, while people who were at high risk of death were left unprotected - that one I understood.

I don't really understand the mutations bit of the argument though. If the thought is that the vaccine either help stop infection or stops it faster in an individual, so less opportunity to mutate - why would a case in the UK be better than a case in a less vaxxed country? Maybe I'm missing something.

Vaccine technology/production hoarding though - that's a different matter. It became a huge deal as soon as the mRNA efficacy trial results came out. It immediately put massive pressure on their ability to ramp up and they (understandably) hoarded every relevent supply chain component - from specialist lipids to reactor liners to super deep freezes.

Meanwhile, more conventional vaccines, like the inactivated virus ones were getting more conventional efficacy results. That doesn't mean they were rubbish though, just that they weren't the superstar performers. They were however the kind of vaccines that could have been produced at a lot more sites, including plant in Africa.

That perception of inferior v superior even undermined AZ, but it was worse for the old technology vaccines. Things like vaccine passports actually reinforced that perception - with lots of vaccine types effectively leaving people "unvaccinated" in the eyes of the world and inevitably impacting both availability and take-up.

When we do get some breathing space, the world will need to look at this is the light of the next pandemic. New capacity, new production locations, new agreements on how approvals work. The German government effectively sponsored Biontech's development work, Pfizer developed and built massive production capacity - and it was great that they could. But not enough to deal with an unprepared world.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,778
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Who is that?
Irish ID consultant, who I know personally (weirdly, via my son’s football club!) He has a twitter account but tends not to tweet about covid (got sick of the arguments/pile-ons every time he said something people didn’t want to hear) so if I share his account you’ll just get a load of tweets about HIV.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,778
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
I don't really understand the mutations bit of the argument though. If the thought is that the vaccine either help stop infection or stops it faster in an individual, so less opportunity to mutate - why would a case in the UK be better than a case in a less vaxxed country? Maybe I'm missing something.
That argument never made much sense to me either.

One thing I did worry about was the combination of very high spread in a partially vaccinated community.

That might cause a selective pressure for variants that have mutations to evade that specific vaccine (based on my limited understanding anyway). For a country with a young population like South Africa a case could be made that the best approach for the health of the world would be zero vaccines until we reach a point where we’re certain we can very quickly vaccinate the majority of their population with a highly effective vaccine. Until then, better to vaccinate nobody. Obviously a deeply ethically dubious approach. It has to be said, though, a hypothetical scenario where all of the vaccines are scrupulously shared equally amongst all the countries in the world could end up just as bad as where we are now, if not worse.

Similarly, the Uk leaving millions of people partially vaccinated with that long gap between first and second doses - while community transmission was incredibly high - also made me squeamish.
 

jojojo

JoJoJoJoJoJoJo
Staff
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
38,243
Location
Welcome to Manchester reception committee
The odds of a covid case (positive test) leading to a hospitalisation had been falling in the UK since vaccines were introduced. Then the ratio started to worsen, but is now improving again as boosters kick in.

This graph looks at how many cases on average it takes before one person gets hospitalised.


Or for people who like to see the data the other way up! This time
the same thing with hospitalisations as a percentage of cases:


A small proportion of a big number is still a big number - that's why there's so much work going on to understand omicron. If it really does lead to more cases but has the same case/hospitalisation rate it'll create agony to health services right across Europe and that will mean more restrictions to slow it down - ie: flatten the curve.

If it hospitalises a bigger proportion (maybe just because vaccines or past infection don't do such an efficient job of keeping infected people out of hospital) then things turn nasty very fast and we're looking at proper lockdowns again.
 
Last edited:

Enigma_87

You know who
Joined
Aug 7, 2008
Messages
27,642
I'm afraid that isn't true. It could become more transmissible and more deadly as long as the incubation period remains so long.

It could also become less deadly.
From my limited knowledge of viruses it's purpose is not to kill you so most likely it will evolve to be more contagious but less deadly - same as flu.

Of course, nothing is given but considering the mutations and data that we currently know and the more experience we get in treating it on paper it should become less and less deadly.
 
Joined
Jul 31, 2015
Messages
22,792
Location
Somewhere out there
I don't really understand the mutations bit of the argument though. If the thought is that the vaccine either help stop infection or stops it faster in an individual, so less opportunity to mutate - why would a case in the UK be better than a case in a less vaxxed country? Maybe I'm missing something.
Surely it’s just, higher percentage of vaccinated within a population, more difficult for virus to spread, ergo less opportunity/hosts for mutation :confused:
Therefore 48% vaccinated in UK and 48% vaccinated in South Africa, is better than 90% UK, 6% Africa. (Obviously those figures are not the actual figures)
Or am I completely missing something?
 

jojojo

JoJoJoJoJoJoJo
Staff
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
38,243
Location
Welcome to Manchester reception committee
Surely it’s just, higher percentage of vaccinated within a population, more difficult for virus to spread, ergo less opportunity/hosts for mutation :confused:
Therefore 48% vaccinated in UK and 48% vaccinated in South Africa, is better than 90% UK, 6% Africa. (Obviously those figures are not the actual figures)
Or am I completely missing something?
Not an epidemiologist but that only sounds like it only really works in locations with a kind of localised herd immunity that's holding R below 1. The UK got to that point with alpha having vaccinated most of its adults. It lost that stability as delta came in - despite 90% of adults vaccinated and a population wide immunity (vaxxed + infected) of 95% or so. The boosters were starting to push things in the right direction but it looks like omicron is going to cost us that battle on the infection front - though hopefully not on the severe disease scale.

Interesting write-up on current global production here:
https://globalcommissionforpostpandemicpolicy.org/covid-19-vaccine-production-to-november-30th-2021/

Headline stats:
About 11billion vaccine doses have now been produced, current production around 1b/month.
AZ/Oxford now the highest volume product
China is the world's largest producer, with the EU and India following behind them.
 

Shakesy

WW Head of Recruiting
Joined
Feb 23, 2016
Messages
9,978
Location
Directly under the sun... NOW!
Lockdowns and closed borders will have zero effect on virus evolution (other than if they slow down spread, which slows down evolution). The extensive vaccination program might but doubtful it would put more pressure on the virus to evolve than our own immune responses.

The one area where modern medicine might be accelerating virus evolution is when we keep immune suppressed covid patients alive for a long time, giving them monoclonal antibody treatments. There are plausible theories about this being the background for delta and omicron. Although there are equally plausible theories about it happening when the virus bounces in and out of animal hosts. So feck knows really.

All I can say for certain is that your obsession with blaming lockdowns for everything bad about the pandemic is wide of the mark here.

It’s also worth noting that (potentially) immune evading new variants like omicron show the foolishness of strategies based on “letting it rip” on the assumption that immunity after infection is permanent (or even very long term) South Africa got through their delta wave without much (any?) lockdowns because they had a very young population so could afford to let the virus spread without mitigation and not experience too many excess deaths. And now look at them….

At this stage the pattern where all of these new variants emerged in countries that either couldn’t or wouldn’t keep community transmission below extremely high levels is fairly fecking obvious.
Well, we did have lockdowns. I guess it depends on how you define lockdown. We were on Lockdown Level 4 (out of a possible 5).

Also, to say we have a "very young population" is relative. Compared to the UK - yes, but we still have over 1 million people aged 75 and older. So to say we can afford to let it spread is not quite accurate...
 

Dumbstar

We got another woman hater here.
Joined
Jul 18, 2002
Messages
21,227
Location
Viva Karius!
Supports
Liverpool
Merry fricking Christmas. Our office party will probably be cancelled now. :mad: And to top it off Pakistan have now put the UK on their amber list today and will go to red soon enough, just as my tickets were paid for. :mad::mad:
 

Garethw

scored 25-30 goals a season as a right footed RW
Joined
Feb 7, 2005
Messages
16,993
Location
England:
So Boris will be making a decision on England’s Christmas restrictions by the end of next week.

I have a horrible feeling that by then infection rates will be sky high and it will be another Christmas of not mixing.
 

jojojo

JoJoJoJoJoJoJo
Staff
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
38,243
Location
Welcome to Manchester reception committee
Not yet known if this is Delta or Omicron but another Christmas party in trouble, this time in Spain. It looks like 68 hospital staff were infected at a Christmas meal and/or the related Christmas party.
https://english.elpais.com/society/...istmas-after-malaga-coronavirus-outbreak.html

Could be significant in multiple ways. Staff mostly vaxxed and boosted. Some of them have probably had covid earlier in the pandemic. None of them so far showing anything other than minor symptoms.
 

Brophs

The One and Only
Joined
Nov 28, 2006
Messages
50,402
Merry fricking Christmas. Our office party will probably be cancelled now. :mad: And to top it off Pakistan have now put the UK on their amber list today and will go to red soon enough, just as my tickets were paid for. :mad::mad:
A pandemic seems a fair trade off to not have to attend the office Christmas party.
 

The Boy

Full Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2014
Messages
4,345
Supports
Brighton and Hove Albion
Tottenham have just announced that 6 players and two members of staff have tested positive, quite useful for us at Brighton as we have our own injury list and play them on Sunday.

No mention obviously whether it is delta or omicron yet.
 

horsechoker

The Caf's Roy Keane.
Joined
Apr 16, 2015
Messages
51,882
Location
The stable
Tottenham have just announced that 6 players and two members of staff have tested positive, quite useful for us at Brighton as we have our own injury list and play them on Sunday.

No mention obviously whether it is delta or omicron yet.
Likely that some United players test positive just before the busy Xmas period
 

CassiusClaymore

Is it Gaizka Mendieta?
Scout
Joined
Apr 28, 2008
Messages
35,777
Location
None of your business mate
Supports
The greatest team in history
So Boris will be making a decision on England’s Christmas restrictions by the end of next week.

I have a horrible feeling that by then infection rates will be sky high and it will be another Christmas of not mixing.
Good luck trying to sell that to the public off the back of them apparently breaking their own rules last year. That'll be a big feck you from everyone on the fence.
 

Utd heap

Models for Coin.
Joined
Aug 15, 2006
Messages
21,392
It's been hard to get a clear picture of which way the data is skewing in the news over the weekend / early this week. Most mates or family of mine seem to think the new variant is fading away which is clearly not the case. Strange atmosphere around the whole thing.
 

Tarrou

Full Member
Joined
May 13, 2013
Messages
25,621
Location
Sydney
Imagine if they announce the new variant will help destroy Delta and we need to go out and get as pissed as possible over Christmas

ready to do my bit
 

Utd heap

Models for Coin.
Joined
Aug 15, 2006
Messages
21,392
Imagine if they announce the new variant will help destroy Delta and we need to go out and get as pissed as possible over Christmas

ready to do my bit
Started on this last week just incase
 

jojojo

JoJoJoJoJoJoJo
Staff
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
38,243
Location
Welcome to Manchester reception committee
It's been hard to get a clear picture of which way the data is skewing in the news over the weekend / early this week. Most mates or family of mine seem to think the new variant is fading away which is clearly not the case. Strange atmosphere around the whole thing.
Not really. It's almost certain that Omicron is going to cause a sharp rise in cases. If the party season looks as good for Omicron as it appears to then we'll see total cases at least double before New Year's Eve.

The thing we don't know right now is what that does to hospitalisations and deaths. The optimists are hoping that it won't double them (due to vaccines and boosters being better at protecting from severe illness than from infection). The pessimists say not only will it double them it might do worse, and it might attack a different age profile (like unvaxxed under 12s) than Delta did.

All we really know is that there are going to be a lot of infections in the next few weeks. We'll know more about hospitalisations in the next week or so, probably enough for the stats people to feed into the models that tell them how things are going to get if we don't slow it down or lockdown.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,778
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
I heard a good analogy on why omicron being milder is probably wishful thinking. If you have a rapid population explosion then you’ll have a much higher proportion of young people in your population than you did before the recent dramatic increase in numbers. In covid terms “young” = diagnosed within the last week and it takes at least a week to end up sick enough to need oxygen/hospital.

All of which needs to be taken into account when we see stats about only a small % of total cases being serious.
 

Bosws87

Full Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2015
Messages
3,718
Lockdowns are gone, with all the stuff that’s leaked out and the idiots in charge you can say it’s a lockdown but theres a considerable amount of the population now that don’t care.

Im on the optimistic side that this is the beginning of the end and this is turning into a mainly mild disease and we will move on, could be a struggle this winter but from then on I believe the worst of it is behind us.

I long stopped caring about the media narrative.

An opposite view to the most frequent posters which appear to be in the glass half empty side, couldn’t tell you whose right or wrong just different perspectives
 

Classical Mechanic

Full Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2014
Messages
35,216
Location
xG Zombie Nation
I heard a good analogy on why omicron being milder is probably wishful thinking. If you have a rapid population explosion then you’ll have a much higher proportion of young people in your population than you did before the recent dramatic increase in numbers. In covid terms “young” = diagnosed within the last week and it takes at least a week to end up sick enough to need oxygen/hospital.

All of which needs to be taken into account when we see stats about only a small % of total cases being serious.
What are you saying though? Do you think it will completely evade immunity or that vaccinations and previous infections will make it appear milder because of the T-Cell response?
 

Bosws87

Full Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2015
Messages
3,718
What are you saying though? Do you think it will completely evade immunity or that vaccinations and previous infections will make it appear milder because of the T-Cell response?
Im pretty sure that’s near impossible it can evade to a degree but never completely.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,778
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
What are you saying though? Do you think it will completely evade immunity or that vaccinations and previous infections will make it appear milder because of the T-Cell response?
I’m referring to the early data coming out of South Africa showing a higher % of mild cases than with previous waves. A lot of people are seeing this as ‘proof’ that omicron causes less serious disease than delta. Without considering how much steeper this wave is than previous waves. Steeper wave = much higher proportion newly diagnosed/not yet serious. Which we can’t infer to mean omicron definitely causes fewer serious cases.

Immune escape is a separate issue. The anecdotal reports of multiple cases amongst the recently boosted are a worry (although not surprising when you see exponential growth in a population with very high % of previous infections). But it’s possible that the vaccinated are still getting good protection against serious illness. It’s also possible that prior illness in the unvaccinated gives similar protection. It’s too early to know though. And, to be honest, a scenario where neither of these things hold true doesn’t bear thinking about.
 
Last edited:

jojojo

JoJoJoJoJoJoJo
Staff
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
38,243
Location
Welcome to Manchester reception committee
What are you saying though? Do you think it will completely evade immunity or that vaccinations and previous infections will make it appear milder because of the T-Cell response?
Consensus is that it will be ok for most people who've been vaxxed (especially the boosted) and most people who've been previously infected.

It's the definition of most that we're struggling with. Does that mean the same number of people that are vulnerable to Delta will be vulnerable to Omicron? If that's the case and Omicron spreads as fast as it appears to, hospitals will be full just after Christmas and people will be dying because they don't have room to treat them (covid cases or otherwise) properly.

If things are worse, that is if not only do more people catch it, but the effectiveness of the vaccine or past infection against serious disease is reduced then we crash sooner.

If the vulnerable to severe illness is reduced (Omicron for optimists) then we might get away with it - but we'll still see a lot of deaths over Christmas and into the new year and hospitals will basically come to a standstill on anything except emergency care.

In the UK they're already considering changing the infection control rules in hospitals because wards containing people who aren't in because of covid, but who test positive for it, need extra space around them. Current rules may reduce overall bed capacity by so much, that if general case rates rise further they'll run out of space just due to that.
 

Classical Mechanic

Full Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2014
Messages
35,216
Location
xG Zombie Nation
I’m referring to the early data coming out of South Africa showing a higher % of mild cases than with previous waves. A lot of people are seeing this as ‘proof’ that omicron causes less serious disease than delta. Without considering how much steeper this wave is than previous waves. Steeper wave = much higher proportion newly diagnosed/not yet serious. Which we can’t infer to mean omicron definitely causes fewer serious cases.

Immune escape is a separate issue. The anecdotal reports of multiple cases amongst the recently boosted are a worry. But it’s possible that they’re still getting good protection against serious illness. It’s also possible that prior illness in the unvaccinated gives similar protection. It’s too early to know though. And, to be honest, a scenario where neither of these things hold true doesn’t bear thinking about.
Most of the virologists etc that I've heard say this is unlikely at least.

I take your first point which is why I'm half dreading this wedding I've got this weekend. Two days inside a small country pub. It seems that we're stuck in the worst position where Omicron could be circulating but we don't know just how bad it is yet. I've not yet been told of any mitigation measures in place for the event either and I don't really want to be the person complaining about it!
 

Suv666

Full Member
Joined
Feb 11, 2016
Messages
8,748
Tottenham have just announced that 6 players and two members of staff have tested positive, quite useful for us at Brighton as we have our own injury list and play them on Sunday.

No mention obviously whether it is delta or omicron yet.
Finally some positive news coming out of Tottenham
 

Garethw

scored 25-30 goals a season as a right footed RW
Joined
Feb 7, 2005
Messages
16,993
Location
England:
Good luck trying to sell that to the public off the back of them apparently breaking their own rules last year. That'll be a big feck you from everyone on the fence.
Exactly. I’ve done everything that they have asked, but this year I will be doing a lateral flow test on Xmas eve and as long as I get a negative reading I will be seeing my family this Christmas regardless of the restrictions.
 

Bratt

Full Member
Joined
Jan 20, 2013
Messages
9,734
Location
Norway
Not yet known if this is Delta or Omicron but another Christmas party in trouble, this time in Spain. It looks like 68 hospital staff were infected at a Christmas meal and/or the related Christmas party.
https://english.elpais.com/society/...istmas-after-malaga-coronavirus-outbreak.html

Could be significant in multiple ways. Staff mostly vaxxed and boosted. Some of them have probably had covid earlier in the pandemic. None of them so far showing anything other than minor symptoms.
Exactly the same as the mass infection at the christmas party in Norway. All double vaxxed, all minor symptoms or asymptomatic.
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,522
Exactly. I’ve done everything that they have asked, but this year I will be doing a lateral flow test on Xmas eve and as long as I get a negative reading I will be seeing my family this Christmas regardless of the restrictions.
Which is perfectly fair and balanced. It's what everyone should be doing.

I'd have thought most would accept restrictions around office parties and nightclubs etc if it meant they could have christmas with the family.

I feel like i made this argument last year but the all or nothing approach from the government doesn't make much sense to me. They insist on public concern being high before doing anything sensible.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,778
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Most of the virologists etc that I've heard say this is unlikely at least.

I take your first point which is why I'm half dreading this wedding I've got this weekend. Two days inside a small country pub. It seems that we're stuck in the worst position where Omicron could be circulating but we don't know just how bad it is yet. I've not yet been told of any mitigation measures in place for the event either and I don't really want to be the person complaining about it!
My gut feeling is that if you’re young and fully vaccinated you don’t have much to worry about, omicron or no omicron. We could all be locked down soon, so might as well enjoy ourselves as much as we can meanwhile!
 

Mike Smalling

Full Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2018
Messages
10,887
So what's the status around the world? Looking increasingly likely that our government (Denmark) will pull another lever soon and close down the nightlife after having re-introduced masks in shops and public transport last week. That in itself wouldn't be a big deal (except for cancelling a few Christmas get-togethers), but it is a step towards shutting down gyms, restaurants, bars, etc. altogether.

Don't really know what to make of it anymore. It seems completely hopeless to ever stop this, when an almost 80% vaccination rate hasn't done it. I'm afraid we will soon be doing more harm than good with the restrictions, and I don't have any confidence in our government making the right decisions. Spring can't come fast enough.
 

JB08

Searches for nude pics of Marcos Rojo
Joined
Mar 16, 2013
Messages
8,391
I'm going to France for a few days, from 12th - 14th December.

I'm hoping I'm safe from any potential catastrophies in terms of having to stay over there, miss Xmas etc. - but the worry keeps nagging in my head. I've already spent over £200 in additional tests in the last week or two.

It's absolutely horrible waiting this week for something to go wrong, the trip be cancelled, UK-France travel be banned etc - does anyone have any reassuring words? :lol::(
 

Mike Smalling

Full Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2018
Messages
10,887
I'm going to France for a few days, from 12th - 14th December.

I'm hoping I'm safe from any potential catastrophies in terms of having to stay over there, miss Xmas etc. - but the worry keeps nagging in my head. I've already spent over £200 in additional tests in the last week or two.

It's absolutely horrible waiting this week for something to go wrong, the trip be cancelled, UK-France travel be banned etc - does anyone have any reassuring words? :lol::(
Stay home in the fetal position.

In all seriousness, though, how do you spend £200 on tests? That's a massive amount! How many tests is that?