SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[redshaw]

I think the advice came from a good place, which was to discourage non frontline people from panic buying and hoarding.

Part of the problem in just advising sick people to wear one, they might be past the contagious stage and spreaders shedding the virus will be asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic.

Also interesting is within a German study they tested an highly infected household and couldn't find any surfaces with the virus, perhaps too late to find it. Most of the infections is spread at home in China. I'm willing to take on a lot of spread is through surfaces and touching your face as per the video I posted by the NY doctor but knowing how much can be expelled and linger in rooms just by talking laughing let alone coughing, people talking for long periods at home vs a dried droplet on a surface sitting there for various lengths of time and being brought to the mouth/nose/eyes.

I'm not looking for protection, I'm looking at reducing the expelled droplets in shops and homes in the air or on surfaces and helping the hospitals not be overwhelmed, it's a two way street, we see in Italy how immensely difficult it can be for staff to keep up with procedures and they go out the window and get infected themselves.

Various face coverings can help lessen the spread, can be washed and reused. Keeping ventilation at home and less talking in close proximity.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

"Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes.

“It seemed like a normal rehearsal, except that choirs are huggy places,” Burdick recalled. “We were making music and trying to keep a certain distance between each other.”

After 2½ hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m.

Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

“That’s all we can think of right now,” said Polly Dubbel, a county communicable disease and environmental health manager.

In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, eight people who were at the rehearsal said that nobody there was coughing or sneezing or appeared ill.

Experts said the choir outbreak is consistent with a growing body of evidence that the virus can be transmitted through aerosols — particles smaller than 5 micrometers that can float in the air for minutes or longer.

The World Health Organization has downplayed the possibility of transmission in aerosols, stressing that the virus is spread through much larger “respiratory droplets,” which are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes and quickly fall to a surface.

But a study published March 17 in the New England Journal of Medicine found that when the virus was suspended in a mist under laboratory conditions it remained “viable and infectious” for three hours — though researchers have said that time period would probably be no more than a half-hour in real-world conditions.

One of the authors of that study, Jamie Lloyd-Smith, a UCLA infectious disease researcher, said it’s possible that the forceful breathing action of singing dispersed viral particles in the church room that were widely inhaled.

“One could imagine that really trying to project your voice would also project more droplets and aerosols,” he said.

With three-quarters of the choir members testing positive for the virus or showing symptoms of infection, the outbreak would be considered a “super-spreading event,” he said.

Linsey Marr, an environmental engineer at Virginia Tech and an expert on airborne transmission of viruses, said some people happen to be especially good at exhaling fine material, producing 1,000 times more than others.

Marr said that the choir outbreak should be seen as a powerful warning to the public.

“This may help people realize that, hey, we really need to be careful,” she said."

Obviously don't have mass gatherings like this but I can see how it can be suspended in the air through pressure waves by talking a lot in close proximity.

 

[The Purley King]

Hi neighbour! I've never walked in to that Tesco unimpeded, it's like people walk in and turn into floor/ceiling tile enthusiasts.

Did you find any eggs in there?

Had to go and pick up a prescription at the war memorial hospital/clinic and they have a bucket ton of calpol/lemsip/paracetamol if you need it and can't find it anywhere else.

There's a lot of at risk people round our way, if there's an outbreak around here it's going to get pretty scary pretty quickly

Hello neighbour!!!!
As I said usually I hate a trip to Tesco’s but the last couple have been great.
Still no flour, no eggs no rice (apart from a 10kg bag and I’m not that desperate for rice!) and no pasta but everything else was fine. I have little hope that people around here will pull together as the things I have seen in there (including some
Guy wandering around with an axe!!) beggar belief and really make you question humanity.
Half price joints of beef atm though so I bought 2.5 kg worth and I plan on inviting some like minded affluent friends round on Sunday for a good roast.
(Is that getting old yet?)

 

[Skills]

Assuming countries flatten the curve, what then? If you just open up the countries again, the virus will more than likely return.

Unless you lockdown specific parts of the country and do what South korea does.

IMO it is going to be a long few months. We will still be dealing with this, in some shape or form come Winter i feel.

Increase healthcare capacity, loosen up some restrictions one by one and keep the ones that give you the biggest bang for your buck and develop a more sophisticated plan at testing and tracing infectious people at source.

 

[Fiskey]

To me it seems that the error FROM NOT wearing masks is vastly costlier than the error FROM wearing masks. So I wear a mask. Decision-making in real life (with imperfect information, uncertain conditions) is based on such asymmetries.

How Taleb of you.

 

[sammsky1]

A lot of Asian countries suffered a lot with SARS and sort of developed a mask wearing culture out of it.

Masks are extremely uncomfortable to wear for more than a few minutes and it takes time to get used to them. I have a crazy P100 mask that I wear at the gun range as it gets a bit smoky indoors. It's soft TPE rubber. If I feel the need to wear a mask during this, it'll be that one as I can get a much better seal than with the standard masks.

Agreed on both points.

Point on west wasn't 'criticism' and point on SE Asia wasn't 'praise': one positive byproduct for Asia's exposure to SARS was becoming educated and adjusted on mask wearing.

I was warned how uncomfortable n95 would be, so practiced in hotel room the night before. You're right, it feels like your face is inside a hot sauna, but the rest of your body isn't. Uncomfortable and weird at some time, and took a lot of getting used to, and alot of tolerance too. I have a feeling its something we will all have to get educated on and used to before this pandemic ends out (once west gets production up to required numbers).

 

[FrankDrebin]

How many people were inside?

Did you consider the people inside lived there? (I'm being serious.)

About 6 people I saw. They had a sign outdoors that said you must clean your hands to enter.

 

[Hugh Jass]

Part of the problem in just advising sick people to wear one, they might be past the contagious stage and spreaders shedding the virus will be asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic.

Also interesting is within a German study they tested an highly infected household and couldn't find any surfaces with the virus, perhaps too late to find it. Most of the infections is spread at home In China. I'm willing to take on a lot spread is through surfaces and touching your face as per the video I posted by the NY doctor but knowing how much can be expelled and linger in rooms just by talking let alone coughing, people talking for long periods at home vs a dried droplet on a surface sitting there for various lengths of time and being brought to the mouth/nose/eyes.

I'm not looking for protection, I'm looking at reducing the expelled droplets in shops and homes in the air or on surfaces and helping the hospitals not be overwhelmed, it's a two way street, we see in Italy how immensely difficult it can be for staff to keep up with procedures and they go out the window and get infected themselves.

Various face coverings can help lessen the spread, can be washed and reused. Keeping ventilation at home and less talking in close proximity.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

"Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes.

“It seemed like a normal rehearsal, except that choirs are huggy places,” Burdick recalled. “We were making music and trying to keep a certain distance between each other.”

After 2½ hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m.

Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

“That’s all we can think of right now,” said Polly Dubbel, a county communicable disease and environmental health manager.

In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, eight people who were at the rehearsal said that nobody there was coughing or sneezing or appeared ill.

Experts said the choir outbreak is consistent with a growing body of evidence that the virus can be transmitted through aerosols — particles smaller than 5 micrometers that can float in the air for minutes or longer.

The World Health Organization has downplayed the possibility of transmission in aerosols, stressing that the virus is spread through much larger “respiratory droplets,” which are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes and quickly fall to a surface.

But a study published March 17 in the New England Journal of Medicine found that when the virus was suspended in a mist under laboratory conditions it remained “viable and infectious” for three hours — though researchers have said that time period would probably be no more than a half-hour in real-world conditions.

One of the authors of that study, Jamie Lloyd-Smith, a UCLA infectious disease researcher, said it’s possible that the forceful breathing action of singing dispersed viral particles in the church room that were widely inhaled.

“One could imagine that really trying to project your voice would also project more droplets and aerosols,” he said.

With three-quarters of the choir members testing positive for the virus or showing symptoms of infection, the outbreak would be considered a “super-spreading event,” he said.

Linsey Marr, an environmental engineer at Virginia Tech and an expert on airborne transmission of viruses, said some people happen to be especially good at exhaling fine material, producing 1,000 times more than others.

Marr said that the choir outbreak should be seen as a powerful warning to the public.

“This may help people realize that, hey, we really need to be careful,” she said."

Obviously don't have mass gatherings like this but I can see how it can be suspended in the air through pressure waves by talking a lot in close proximity.

This. 100%. Michael Osterholm was essentially saying this repeatedly. If you are in a contained area where what people exhale builds up in the room, you will inhale what other people have exhaled.

He gave a great example of all the dust that floats around in the air in a room. Dust that you cannot see. But you inhale it.

There was a super spreader in South Korea in a church, that infect loads of people like this. Trains and planes would be deadly as well.

I am trying my level best to not go into shops with too many people in them. And even then it is not fool proof.

 

[sammsky1]

I'm not looking for protection, I'm looking at reducing the expelled droplets in shops and homes in the air or on surfaces and helping the hospitals not be overwhelmed, it's a two way street, we see in Italy how immensely difficult it can be for staff to keep up with procedures and they go out the window and get infected themselves.
Various face coverings can help lessen the spread, can be washed and reused. Keeping ventilation at home and less talking in close proximity.

I agree. I'm also pro mask wearing (with proper guidance on how to use).
Its just the world didn't have enough supply 3 weeks ago for everyone to get some!
Hopefully that changes within the next weeks.

 

[Hugh Jass]

Increase healthcare capacity, loosen up some restrictions one by one and keep the ones that give you the biggest bang for your buck and develop a more sophisticated plan at testing and tracing infectious people at source.

Yea that is a good plan. I can see certain parts of countries been put on lockdowns, much like that place in China was today.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Agreed on both points.

Point on west wasn't 'criticism' and point on SE Asia wasn't 'praise': one positive byproduct for Asia's exposure to SARs was becoming educated and adjusted on mask wearing.

I was warned how uncomfortable n95 would be, so practiced in hotel room the night before. You're right, it feels like your face is inside a hot sauna, but the rest of your body isn't. Uncomfortable and weird at some time, and took a lot of getting used to, and alot of tolerance too. I have a feeling its something we will all have to get educated on and used to before this pandemic ends out (once west gets production up to required numbers).

The elastic bands, too!

 

[Jippy]

This is a fair point. Which is why I said that there could have been cheaper/less-protective masks for the average Joe, and N95 and others for doctors/nurses. South Korea had an interesting take on this. They had a shortage of surgical masks too (though it is not called N95 there), so they did a campaign when people who have those masks can donate them, and in turn get the cheaper cloth versions. Which I assume means that those work too for general public (who do not need to have the same protection as doctors), while keep the best masks for the medical people. Which is the right thing to do.

Not sure they would work well here- please swap your medical grade mask for a crap one- even if it is for the wider good.

 

[Maagge]

A lot of Asian countries suffered a lot with SARS and sort of developed a mask wearing culture out of it.

Masks are extremely uncomfortable to wear for more than a few minutes and it takes time to get used to them. I have a crazy P100 mask that I wear at the gun range as it gets a bit smoky indoors. It's soft TPE rubber. If I feel the need to wear a mask during this, it'll be that one as I can get a much better seal than with the standard masks.

Agreed on both points.

Point on west wasn't 'criticism' and point on SE Asia wasn't 'praise': one positive byproduct for Asia's exposure to SARs was becoming educated and adjusted on mask wearing.

I was warned how uncomfortable n95 would be, so practiced in hotel room the night before. You're right, it feels like your face is inside a hot sauna, but the rest of your body isn't. Uncomfortable and weird at some time, and took a lot of getting used to, and alot of tolerance too. I have a feeling its something we will all have to get educated on and used to before this pandemic ends out (once west gets production up to required numbers).

Another factor is air pollution. That has helped their mask wearing culture as long as well.
It's a very human thing as well. Instead of figuring out a way to not pollute we just put on a mask.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[4bars]

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[bpet15]

California doing quite well, which is to be expected cause of social distancing going on and stay at home orders for almost a month now. But Texas is beyond my thinking. As far as I know, they have done feck all to mitigate this, but still somehow are hardly effected.

I’m in Texas and we’ve been in the house since mid March. School in Dallas area have been shit down since early March which coincides with Spring Break.

Population density plays a big role in this, which is why you see Dallas and Houston effected more than other areas in the state. We’ve done a good job, but don’t expect to hit peak deaths until early May.

 

[dumbo]

Now I'm completely confused about wearing a face covering. Should I try to construct one of these homemade things as long as I remember to not fidget with it, is this better than nothing? I have to interact with people. I'm washing my hands raw and trying to be as safe as possible.

If it's a stupid question you don't need to call me an idiot for asking it, I really don't know any of this stuff.

 

[FootballHQ]

Heart breaking mate. I know a few people who work in Walsall Manor Hospital (as my children go to school in that town). I myself work at The Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust (Risk department) and I really cannot comprehend how brave front line staff are.

Black country had it really bad, New Cross hospital outside of Wolves had many deaths.

 

[Hansa]

Assuming countries flatten the curve, what then? If you just open up the countries again, the virus will more than likely return.

Unless you lockdown specific parts of the country and do what South korea does.

IMO it is going to be a long few months. We will still be dealing with this, in some shape or form come Winter i feel.

Yes, this virus is a slow, slow burner. Norway is a pretty good example of that. Three weeks of social distancing and strict measures beginning while the death count was zero, (no complete lockdown, mind) which has been dutifully carried out by the population, a good start by having young-ish, healthy people infected first, more than 10.000 health care workers quarantined early on at the slightest suspicion of being in close proximity with someone having the virus, a flattened curve in both hospital admissions and ventilator patients, one of the highest testing-per-capita rates in the world (more than 100.000 of 5.3 million), showing a very low level of infection among the population - and still the body count in the nursing homes is increasing. This thief in the night will keep on going for a long, long time.

 

[Hugh Jass]

Yes, this virus is a slow, slow burner. Norway is a pretty good example of that. Three weeks of social distancing and strict measures beginning while the death count was zero, (no complete lockdown, mind) which has been dutifully carried out by the population, a good start by having young-ish, healthy people infected first, more than 10.000 health care workers quarantined early on at the slightest suspicion of being in close proximity with someone having the virus, a flattened curve in both hospital admissions and ventilator patients, one of the highest testing-per-capita rates in the world (more than 100.000 of 5.3 million), showing a very low level of infection among the population - and still the body count in the nursing homes is increasing. This thief in the night will keep on going for a long, long time.

Scary alright. I can only see this subsiding if either enough people get infected (and get immunity) or they develop a vaccine/drug treatment.

Some people saying as well that this will become seasonal like the flu.

 

[Jippy]

Agreed on both points.

Point on west wasn't 'criticism' and point on SE Asia wasn't 'praise': one positive byproduct for Asia's exposure to SARS was becoming educated and adjusted on mask wearing.

I was warned how uncomfortable n95 would be, so practiced in hotel room the night before. You're right, it feels like your face is inside a hot sauna, but the rest of your body isn't. Uncomfortable and weird at some time, and took a lot of getting used to, and alot of tolerance too. I have a feeling its something we will all have to get educated on and used to before this pandemic ends out (once west gets production up to required numbers).

Tbh as well as cultural difference around being ill, I thought a lot of the mask wearing acceptance in Asia was more down to the smog problems in some of the biggest cities.

 

[Jippy]

Hello neighbour!!!!
As I said usually I hate a trip to Tesco’s but the last couple have been great.
Still no flour, no eggs no rice (apart from a 10kg bag and I’m not that desperate for rice!) and no pasta but everything else was fine. I have little hope that people around here will pull together as the things I have seen in there (including some
Guy wandering around with an axe!!) beggar belief and really make you question humanity.
Half price joints of beef atm though so I bought 2.5 kg worth and I plan on inviting some like minded affluent friends round on Sunday for a good roast.
(Is that getting old yet?)

Not old yet.

 

[sammsky1]

Scary alright. I can only see this subsiding if either enough people get infected (and get immunity) or they develop a vaccine/drug treatment.

Some people saying as well that this will become seasonal like the flu.

A hypothesis is over the next few years covid19 mutation the will lead it to become weaker, and so yes, it will remain, but not be as deadly.

There is zero chance of it totally disappearing, even with a vaccine. But it won't be an issue once a vaccine and curative medicine is produced. Am confident that's just a matter of time.

 

[FootballHQ]

Has Whitty been heard from?

He self isolated the day after Johnson didn't he so might pop up this weekend . Not sure where Patrick Vallance is.

Silly of me to want Jacob Rees Mogg to do one of these daily press conferences?

 

[Arruda]

Not hard to imagine. Age and preexisting conditions being the main factors I'd imagine?

It boils down to chance of survival, i.e., chance of benefitting from it (and age and preexisting conditions are a major factor in that, albeit not the only ones). In some ICUs mortality is 50%, they can probably lower it with more accurate choices.

 

[FootballHQ]

Bookies and online betting must be dying on their arse during this time. I can't remember the last bet I placed. Some positivity.

Virtual grand national tomorrow.

 

[Balljy]

What I found interesting in the Johnson update was the statement about thanking us for delaying the virus rather than stopping the virus. Suggests to me that he knows this is a long term thing and will be multiple waves. If predictions are correct the second wave will hit peak around Christmas which will make things interesting.

 

[Garethw]

A report the other day said that Covid19 could be found in faeces.

So stupid question time . Could someone hypothetically get infected by breathing in someone’s fart gas?

 

[Flying_Heckfish]

https://khn.org/news/as-coronavirus...-americans-live-in-counties-with-no-icu-beds/

Bit of a concern perhaps for some Americans

“Hospital beds and ICU beds have cropped up where the economics can support them,”

 

[nme_pro]

Hello neighbour!!!!
As I said usually I hate a trip to Tesco’s but the last couple have been great.
Still no flour, no eggs no rice (apart from a 10kg bag and I’m not that desperate for rice!) and no pasta but everything else was fine. I have little hope that people around here will pull together as the things I have seen in there (including some
Guy wandering around with an axe!!) beggar belief and really make you question humanity.
Half price joints of beef atm though so I bought 2.5 kg worth and I plan on inviting some like minded affluent friends round on Sunday for a good roast.
(Is that getting old yet?)

Like minded and affluent friends you say? I know just the fellow. Either that or a teddy bear supperclub for that size of beef.

An axe! What the feck? An hours exercise in the woods type of axe or to be menacing? Was he buying the axe from the upstairs bit?

I've got a ton of meat, cleaning supplies and tissue of varying descriptions and quality (I have a shed load of blue roll from decorating projects, but it hasn't got to that point yet.) PM me if you're running low on stuff and tesco gets taken over by axe bandits.

Also give me a shout if you find eggs please. I'm heading up to aldi in Coulsdon on Monday morning when it should be a touch quieter, to hunt for them.

 

[sammsky1]

Tbh as well as cultural difference around being ill, I thought a lot of the mask wearing acceptance in Asia was more down to the smog problems in some of the biggest cities.

These days, cities like Tokyo, Seoul, Bangkok or Kuala Lumpar don't have the pollution levels of China or India/Sub Continent.

In a sense, smog, SARS, covid19 etc are one of the same thing: external pollutants that make you ill. I guess mask wearing across Asia is something that hss happened for various reasons over a period of time.

But as pointed out by many, it's now become an educated and culturally acceptable solution. I've even saw fashionable hipster types wearing 'designer' masks, which complimented their clothing style on my most recent trip!

 

[Balljy]

A hypothesis is over the next few years covid19 mutation the will lead it to become weaker, and so yes, it will remain, but not be as deadly.

There is zero chance of it totally disappearing, even with a vaccine. But it won't be an issue once a vaccine and curative medicine is produced. Am confident that's just a matter of time.

Despite what you say it's a major issue if this virus becomes endemic. Around 300,000 to 600,000 die a year from flu despite the fact there are regular vaccines and if we were to add a second endemic virus to that count with a similar or greater mortality rate the strain on the hospitals would be huge (never mind the extra deaths).

It will become weaker, partly because we will find it's true mortality rate through testing and partly through mutations but if this is a "stayer" we are looking at a high percentage increase in death every year from now on.

 

[Paxi]

A report the other day said that Covid19 could be found in faeces.

So stupid question time . Could someone hypothetically get infected by breathing in someone’s fart gas?

That's exactly what happened with SARS. Somebody shat in blocked toilet or something and then the whole block of apartments got infected.

 

[Hansa]

Four doctors and three nurses in the UK have died so far. More than 50 in Italy. This is unacceptable. Scientists need to quickly figure out if it's a massive first dose which is dangerous, or if it is prolonged exposure to the virus which is the killer. If it's the latter, longer off-duty times between shifts need to be implemented.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

So from the information and graphs we have available, does anybody have a projection as to when the UK will peak in terms of number of cases?

Thanks.

 

[Paxi]

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This is horrible to see. Need more awareness in India. I realise this barbaric behaviour is driven by fear but still..

 

[horsechoker]

What I found interesting in the Johnson update was the statement about thanking us for delaying the virus, not stopping the virus. Suggests to me that he knows this is a long term thing and will be multiple waves. If predictions are correct the second wave will hit peak around Christmas which will make things interesting.

A winter lockdown might be easier to implement as people go out less anyway however it would have a huge effect on non online retail and people would be heating their homes all day and using more electricity which will drive up bills. People will want to government to subsidise them.

What is more worrying is there's a hard Brexit at the end of the year and then another lockdown. Supplies will be low and there will be trouble getting more into the country.

 

[Garethw]

So from the information and graphs we have available, does anybody have a projection as to when the UK will peak in terms of number of cases?

Thanks.

The government seems to think either next weekend or the weekend after.

But then their opinions change like the bloody wind so who knows

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

The government seems to think either next weekend or the weekend after.

But then their opinions change like the bloody wind so who knows

Haha cheers, I do hope a peak won't cause complacency afterwards.

 

[Suedesi]

Again it's not what people are telling you, masks usefulness is limited because they depend entirely on how someone acts in general. No one tells you that they don't "work", they simply have a limited usefulness that is greatly reduced by the actions of the person using them.



As anyone suggested that using a mask increase the risks? I'm pretty sure that anyone with a bit of common sense simply said that the usefulness was limited for almost everyone. It's very useful if you have a cold or have Covid-19 though, in that case you should definitely wear one particularly inside.

No measures are one size fits all.

Wearing gloves AND washing hands frequently AND keeping 2 meters distance AND wearing a mask would provide a better protection than doing feckall or just a select measure.

Not according to many people on this thread, apparently wearing one incorrectly does more harm than good according to some.

Coronaidiots

I don't think I've been clear. It stops the spread via already infected people. If you are wearing a mask and are not infected the evidence is that it does little to protect you.

You can be infected and totally asymptomatic right now. Act as if you're infected. Your mask protects me. My mask protects you. Period.

 

[nme_pro]

Four doctors and three nurses in the UK have died so far. More than 50 in Italy. This is unacceptable. Scientists need to quickly figure out if it's a massive first dose which is dangerous, or if it is prolonged exposure to the virus which is the killer. If it's the latter, longer off-duty times between shifts need to be implemented.

Was googling for those stats just an hour ago. It's insanely heartbreaking that people, some with families and dependents, are being asked to go into work which could be more deadly than a war zone, with no PPE. Looked at r/nursing where one sub was about nurses resigning because of a lack of PPE and exhaustion, which is horrifying and understandable in equal measures