SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

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My sister is also a doctor on the front line, and her point to me all along has been if you need a hospital visit, you should be in real trouble, hence Government policy of stay away from GP and only come hospital if seriously seriously ill.

As I hypothesised before, PM would only go hospital if serious given:
a) most tests for him could be done by visiting doctor at home
b) the panic/instability it could cause.

I think its quite a bad situation especially as you say that '10 days' is a common time to require hospitalisation.

What % of those who require hospitalisation end up dying? UK and globally?
Well atm that number is pretty much the same as the death rate, as we're only testing people sick enough to go to a hospital. Though, I don't know if any confirmed cases are being sent home.

I've been following the numbers for Italy, and looking at how slow the recovery rate is I think they've the recovery time has been underestimated. Around 2 weeks ago, Italy were getting about 5-6k cases per day. So you'd think around now the recoveries + deaths would be tending towards that, but the recoveries seem to stay fairly constant around 1k and deaths have stayed around 700 (today dropping off). To me the recovery time has a lower bound of about 3 weeks. So I'm not surprised Johnson is still showing symptoms after being confirmed just a week ago.

Which is again, why the sudden ramp up in chinese recoveries again looks so fictitious.
 

Anustart89

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My sister is also a doctor on the front line, and her point to me all along has been if you need a hospital visit, you should be in real trouble, hence Government policy of stay away from GP and only come hospital if seriously seriously ill. And that those admitted to hospital on day 7-10 of illness often require a ventilator.

I think it's quite a bad situation especially as you say that '10 days' is a common time to require hospitalisation.

What % of those who require hospitalisation end up dying? UK and globally?
Not disagreeing with any of what you've posted there.

Not sure what the latest numbers are, but I've seen about 5-10% of hospitalised patients needing ICU or thereabouts. Can't find a good source for you right no so take it with a pinch of salt.

Early Chinese data had about 60% mortality among those put on mechanical ventilation. Note that some patients will die outside of the ICU for various reasons (futility, dying before ICU, ICU not admitting due to poor prognosis) and not all patients in the ICU will need mechanical ventilation.
 

Offside

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People should stay away from the news during all this. Obviously check the BBC every so often but if you immerse yourself in social media you’re immersing yourself in a huge pile of bull crap. So much bollocks flying around it’s untrue.
 

Eyepopper

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That extra £350m a week going to the NHS is gonna be crucial right about now.
 
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oneniltothearsenal

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I totally agree that any death is a tragedy and we should do our utmost to preserve life. This is also not about wanting to go back to the pub or go to the cinema. I could quite easily shelve all those unimportant things.

This is about having a life to lead after this (which in turn will save thousands of lives in itself due to significantly more people being able to feed their kids) 60% of business will fail if this goes on longer than short term. Do you even consider what world that would leave us with?
One where its clear societies need a social safety net and respect that safety net instead of allowing the rich and powerful to constantly strip it in efforts to profit from privatization and de-regulation.
 

LInkash

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You're supposed to rest when you're ill, trying to run a country can't have done Boris any good.
 

Wibble

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Not disagreeing with any of what you've posted there.

Not sure what the latest numbers are, but I've seen about 5-10% of hospitalised patients needing ICU or thereabouts. Can't find a good source for you right no so take it with a pinch of salt.

Early Chinese data had about 60% mortality among those put on mechanical ventilation. Note that some patients will die outside of the ICU for various reasons (futility, dying before ICU, ICU not admitting due to poor prognosis) and not all patients in the ICU will need mechanical ventilation.
No idea if this figure still holds but early estimates from China that I saw was 5-7% of those hospitalised needed an ICU bed but others would be in serious condition and would need other things like oxygen.
 

Ludens the Red

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This kind of coverage worries me.

While we are getting the odd idiot outliner the vast majority of the country are sticking to the social distancing measures. I have friends all over the country due to my preference for socially active hostels when I travel and I've messaged a vast amount in recent days and not one of them have reported major breaking of the rules, in two weeks of daily walks and to the shop myself the only time I've seen something that could even be passed off as rule breaking was four people at a large skate park.

Not that many people are actually breaking the rules especially in rural areas yet if you listen to the media you'd think half the country is at it, unfortunately too many people rely on the media to form their own opinions which will only drag the narrative that "so many people are taking the piss innit" even further which will probably lead to our daily exercise right stripped.
Yup, Im still out and about everyday and it’s clear as day at least 90-95% of people are respecting the lockdown. This whole narrative of the selfish British public who can’t stay in a for a few weeks is a nonsense. Like you said though this is what happens when you watch selective videos on twitter and take it as gospel.
 

sglowrider

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The comments I see below tweets like this one make me think the UK is properly fecked. Completely different attitude here in Ireland, where you’re much more likely to see people go to the opposite extreme. What the feck is wrong with you people? It’s almost as though the whole Brexit thing has made a lot of you wilfully contrary. It’s actually quite depressing. The UK used to be a bastion of sanity and common sense. Not any more.
Out means Out!
 

NYAS

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R0 is the "natural" infection rate. When you flatten the curve with social distancing and lockdowns this is an expression of it's actual rate of infection at a point in time in a specific place and is called R (not R0).
Thanks.
 

Cal?

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Forget china. Look at south korea, japan, singapore. Good government can mitigate the outbreak.

It's not wizardry. Their government instruct, citizen follow, results shows.

Nobody has the magic formula, it's just a collection of small things done right.

Ps: there are reporters all over wuhan, satelite imagery, live tictoc, correspondence from tourist and expats from wuhan, those lockdowns are real. There are various embassy as well. You'd think if the situation is somehow much worse than reported there would be more news from all over the world not only from usa and uk. US has been itching to blame China, it wont be hard for cia to use their satelite and get a hard proof of mass grave of millions bodies lying around. Seriously, what do you think happened in China? Do you honestly think millions died and they open the city today and the rest of the province acts like nothing happened?
Funny how it works in Hong Kong, terrible governance also mitigates outbreak.

Basically no one trusts the Hong Kong government and therefore everyone started to wear masks and became extra vigilant when the government was trying to play down the treat back in late January.
 

Wibble

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The only slightly confusing thing is that R0 has a range due to some places/countries having different climates, social behaviour and density of people etc. However, if you have a vaccine that only changes the R but not the R0
 

MrPooni

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So I started showing symptoms a few days ago but put them down to a combination of seasonal allergies and overtraining during the lockdown since I haven't left my home at all in weeks but my cough has been getting progressively worse all day. It's now reaching a point where the only solace I'm finding is during steamy showers, hot baths and parking myself next to a humidifier.

111 have classed it as a mild to moderate case which is reassuring but it still really sucks. I say that as someone who skipped a trip to Cancun to avoid Swine Flu only to contract it after a night out in Dublin and that shit was nothing compared to this.

Thankfully I've done enough hallucinogens in my time to not get too anxious about my potential demise but I don't have a wife or any kids to worry about either so that probably helps.

Basically what I'm trying to say in a roundabout way is please be careful out there lads, lasses and everyone in between because despite seemingly taking every possible precaution to avoid this shite, it still managed to catch me and it really, really sucks. I mean the only reason I'm venturing into this thread is because it's not letting me sleep.
 

MrPooni

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@MrPooni I'm sorry to hear that and I wish you a fast recovery.

May I ask where you think you caught it if you haven't left the house for several weeks?
Only points of contact have been the odd delivery driver/postman and my sister dropping off groceries. I could have sworn I adhered to all the correct protocols before and after said interactions but human memories are notoriously unreliable. Clearly I fecked up somewhere otherwise I wouldn't be in this situation but I'm not going to spend the next few days racking my brain about it either. Plus the past few weeks have been kind of a blur due to the lack of structure which probably doesn't help my case as a model citizen.
 

MrPooni

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P.S. Thanks for the morbid targeted ads Caf. Very topical all things considered :lol:

 

17 Van der Gouw

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Only points of contact have been the odd delivery driver/postman and my sister dropping off groceries. I could have sworn I adhered to all the correct protocols before and after said interactions but human memories are notoriously unreliable. Clearly I fecked up somewhere otherwise I wouldn't be in this situation but I'm not going to spend the next few days racking my brain about it either. Plus the past few weeks have been kind of a blur due to the lack of structure which probably doesn't help my case as a model citizen.
It sounds like you keep yourself in good shape, which will stand you in good stead to fight the virus, hopefully you'll be over the worst of it soon.

It's possible you picked it up from a parcel or letter, as the virus can survive on cardboard for up to a couple of days but you're be quite unfortunate if this is the case. Regardless, get well soon.
 

VeevaVee

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Only points of contact have been the odd delivery driver/postman and my sister dropping off groceries. I could have sworn I adhered to all the correct protocols before and after said interactions but human memories are notoriously unreliable. Clearly I fecked up somewhere otherwise I wouldn't be in this situation but I'm not going to spend the next few days racking my brain about it either. Plus the past few weeks have been kind of a blur due to the lack of structure which probably doesn't help my case as a model citizen.
There's still a risk of getting it even if you adhere to everything. People will have come into contact with those groceries, and it's more likely to be very recent with the current demand. Not mention everyone walking past them and potentially picking stuff up and putting it back down. Plus think how many people are in the postal sorting centres, and working at wherever you ordered from.

It's not your fault. Get well soon man.
 

MrPooni

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There's still a risk of getting it even if you adhere to everything. People will have come into contact with those groceries, and it's more likely to be very recent with the current demand. Not mention everyone walking past them and potentially picking stuff up and putting it back down. Plus think how many people are in the postal sorting centres, and working at wherever you ordered from.

It's not your fault. Get well soon man.
Cheers. I'm based in the Midlands which is slowly becoming the epicenter in the UK which probably doesn't help but it is what it is.
 

redshaw

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With post I leave for a few days and even after opening I wash my hands but I plan ahead do things together.

Plastic bottles of milk will be handled by shop workers and it's something you'll be handling a lot each day so i just wash those with mild soap before opening the seal and rinse off with water. Other stuff I tend to leave for a few days if possible or open with scissors and rinse hands after. I've seen it first hand where shoppers and kids right up against the shelf unintentionally cough on food packages,

My hands are perfectly normal oily and supple, I'm not washing them often, I just plan ahead and incorporate a few things at a time.

You've also got to think if you go to a till , particularly in aldi with no self service, if they wear plastic gloves there will be a greater chance of it building up and being transferred to many items

I wear cotton gloves in the shop that I can slip off easily. The virus doesn't live long on fabrics or the skin but it's mainly so I don't cross contaminate my car steering wheel etc, keys and front door and a good reminder not to touch my face.

People can wipe their nose with hands , cough on hands and cough on the shopping basket handle, cough on and touch the food, plastic gloves and rubber conveyor belts could be quite a lot of build up. I'd rather break that chain with gloves and not have to wipe the inside of my car down each time. There's no hand santiser for sale and I'm really not into carrying one or applying it often. I'll leave that for businesses and other people who might need it while working.

Also if people visit it's best to meet outside as it will dissipate easily or at least open the windows inside. Small confines and close proximity by talking laughing and coughing can make it airborne for a time in the home. Someone without symptoms (asymptomatic) or pre symptomatic can be spreading this just the same. Communal areas in care homes are perhaps one of the worst places.

https://www.researchgate.net/public...gic_evidence_from_two_outbreak_investigations

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...-might-travel-through-the-air?t=1586091792436
 
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Paxi

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Calderwood sounds like a fecking robot.
 

Mihajlovic

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This is so sad. UN chief António Guterres is calling for measures to address a “horrifying global surge in domestic violence” directed towards women and girls, linked to lockdowns imposed by governments responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Since the pandemic, the UN is reporting that Lebanon and Malaysia, for example, have seen the number of calls to helplines double, compared with the same month last year; in China they have tripled; and in Australia, search engines such as Google are seeing the highest magnitude of searches for domestic violence help in the past five years.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1061052
 

DomesticTadpole

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This is so sad. UN chief António Guterres is calling for measures to address a “horrifying global surge in domestic violence” directed towards women and girls, linked to lockdowns imposed by governments responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Since the pandemic, the UN is reporting that Lebanon and Malaysia, for example, have seen the number of calls to helplines double, compared with the same month last year; in China they have tripled; and in Australia, search engines such as Google are seeing the highest magnitude of searches for domestic violence help in the past five years.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1061052
It is. Unfortunately everybody knew this would happen. :(