- Jan 17, 2012
Well atm that number is pretty much the same as the death rate, as we're only testing people sick enough to go to a hospital. Though, I don't know if any confirmed cases are being sent home.My sister is also a doctor on the front line, and her point to me all along has been if you need a hospital visit, you should be in real trouble, hence Government policy of stay away from GP and only come hospital if seriously seriously ill.
As I hypothesised before, PM would only go hospital if serious given:
a) most tests for him could be done by visiting doctor at home
b) the panic/instability it could cause.
I think its quite a bad situation especially as you say that '10 days' is a common time to require hospitalisation.
What % of those who require hospitalisation end up dying? UK and globally?
I've been following the numbers for Italy, and looking at how slow the recovery rate is I think they've the recovery time has been underestimated. Around 2 weeks ago, Italy were getting about 5-6k cases per day. So you'd think around now the recoveries + deaths would be tending towards that, but the recoveries seem to stay fairly constant around 1k and deaths have stayed around 700 (today dropping off). To me the recovery time has a lower bound of about 3 weeks. So I'm not surprised Johnson is still showing symptoms after being confirmed just a week ago.
Which is again, why the sudden ramp up in chinese recoveries again looks so fictitious.