SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Virgil

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Using the European median for spending is misleading when you consider the size of the UK economy is much larger than most other countries in Europe.

Comparing with G7 countries is more of a fair comparison.

Our healthcare spending is 2nd from bottom from the G7 countries and only just over half what Germany spend.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...espendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29

NB. That was in 2011. Since then we have seen massive reductions in the rate of investment in the NHS.

Even that however is misleading as concentrating on simply G7 countries only Japan funds a greater proportion of expenditure by public contribution. On that basis we should promote more private insurance should we not?. Mind you I do accept I am playing devils advocate. But it does show, as with most things in life.....it all depends what facts you base your assumptions upon.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Some positive news in Ireland this morning is that social distancing measures have worked and as a result no peak is currently coming.
Yeah everything was handled so (surprisingly) well here. I know a few healthcare workers who have had none of the chaos in their hospitals that was seen in the likes of Italy and the US, too. Still have a few wankers complaining about the lockdown but that's to be expected. I reckon after May 5th we'll see some gradual easing of restrictions, now.

My work officially told us WFH til the middle of May, so I'll be waiting til at least then even if the country opens up a bit.
Yeah, we’ve definitely stopped this getting away from us. I reckon we’ll be following New Zealand’s lead when it comes to the next phase.

Explainer: Here's how New Zealand's lockdown worked and how they'll be relaxing it next week
 

redshaw

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Pound for pound, worst country in Europe? Honest question. I have a mate who is pretty right-wing in some views and his view of the UK is very much 'we are great and we need to start proving to the world how great we are again'. I tell him that if he bothered to venture outside of the UK, he'd see that nobody actually sees Britain as remotely great, nowadays. A fallen giant, and a shitshow. Are we going to be fully exposed at the end of this, for what we seem to be?
I've read this reuse and severe lack of PPE for many European countries in the news outlets. American nurses and doctors are using New York Yankee baseball equipment. Weeks old PPE across Europe and even getting left off while treating patients.

Many have been caught with their pants down, there's a huge world battle in ordering equipment and shows the problem of outsourcing manufacturing. Germany is doing a lot now but won't be ready until August.

What is shambolic is not just the government but those at the top of the NHS who should know what they need and should be looking at what is coming. Factories should've been retooling ages ago and I shouldn't be hearing public calls for other manufactures to help with PPE last week. Royal mint retooled in 48 hours to make some PPE, I shouldn't be hearing about that recently, should've been months ago multiple times.

I asked/expected care home workers and nurses to be routinely tested at the start of all this but we're only stepping up in recent days after recent calls. I'm stunned there wasn't more action as every little helps in Jan Feb and early March.

It's like seeing huge waves coming on the beach and we just stand there instead of moving. I would've been paying firms to retool early on.

UK and Europe and not remotely great, it's like a decaying museum people visit and work in still. Asian people know to go home for medical care and virus outbreaks than to stay here, they took the baton yonks ago.
 
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Fluctuation0161

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You sure about that?



The NHS does not have a problem with it's overall budget.
This has been picked apart by other posters. But I would also like to add:

This doesn't take into account the reduction in social care spending since 2011 which in turn puts more people and pressures onto the NHS. Combine this reduction in social care spending with the ageing population and the massive increased need for social care and it is gross negligence.

There was also the reduced junior doctor contracts which in turn reduces the number of junior doctors and trainees.

There was also the removed bursaries and enforced tuition fees for student nurses. Which again reduced the intake of new nurses. They have now had to reverse this policy. But we are suffering from a 4 year gap in new nurses!
 

Wolverine

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About to kick off big time I think - nurses refusing to do things with managers then asking and indeed training junior doctors to do their duties. Royal College of Nursing have told their nurses to refuse if unsafe PPE, ditto BMA for the doctors although BMA's statements and saying they'll fight for us is only for refusing to perform "high risk services"

RCN incidentally have said that they will help with legal assistance should nurses face corporate manslaughter charges for refusing to treat patients. BMA have not said anything about providing doctors with the same.

Such a shitshow, its a damn miracle I haven't fallen sick yet treating the patients I have, while constantly battling management as they challenge us as well when we source our own PPE as well, but even that's been difficult. Most of the PPE I've sourced for myself and my colleagues has been visors, masks, coveralls are banned in my hospital unless provided by them (although some GPs are sourcing and using their own in community) but when it comes to gowns haven't been able to find anything. Without gowns healthcare workers will die, literally haven't been able to sleep properly with the stress of it all. Sickening how the government are getting away with this.
 

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golden_blunder

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Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus
The president of Belarus not only claims to be able to defeat Covid-19 through positive thinking, but also the ability to travel back in time.
“No one will die of coronavirus in our country. I publicly declare this,” Mr Lukashenko said on Monday. His health ministry had already confirmed 29 deaths from the virus.
The 65-year-old Mr Lukashenko, who has ruled the former Soviet state for 26 years, has described the global pandemic as a “psychosis” and has refused to impose social distancing measures on his 9.5m people.

Belarusians should instead play ice hockey, drive tractors, use the sauna, drink vodka and pet baby goats to protect themselves from the virus, Mr Lukashenko has claimed. “If a person stays positive, they will be healthy,” he said.
Is this true? It’s like something @SteveJ would write
 

golden_blunder

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I hope we don't see the worst outcome as you describe as that would mean a fundamental changing of the world. On the top of my head:
1) 2 m rule
2) Rare family gathering with elders
3) Soulless sporting events
4) Travel only for necessity
5) I don't know what dating will look like
6) WFH for jobs that can be done from home (this should be default anyway)
7) Nursing homes would only be served by astronauts
8) Old people will get extremely lonely
9) People with masks always on + mask bling
10) No socialising
11) Countries and people dependent on tourism annihilated economically
12) Increased mental health issues

I am sure I am missing very big ones.
Online remote dates. If you’re lucky then proceeding to fingering and wanking via webcam. The single lads will all have to invest in those fake fanny things (made in China)
 

golden_blunder

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We know already that antibodies are created in significant numbers in recovered patients (logical given that people are actually recovering) and signs that a workable vaccine will be developed are good to date even if it does take quite a while to test and get one or more to market. Most viruses with this sort of infectiousness and fatality rate to the host don't evolve rapidly so a vaccine should give us a couple of years which is plenty to keep the vaccine up to date with the viruses evolution. We should also immunise everyone at the same time for flu as people are really slack at getting that shot. An antiviral would also be a huge boost as it will reduce pressure on medical services while a vaccine is developed. Fingers crossed for Remdesvir trials.

As for Spanish flu, it is debatable that it was more deadly or contagious but rather it was the terrible conditions that prevailed at the time with lots of young people in close proximity with poor hygiene and malnutrition etc due to the war. Compounded by aspirin poisoning. Dengue Fever is an outlier but it is doubtful that this will occur with this virus.

The trick is going to be getting to the point where we can vaccinate and/or treat adequately without overwhelming medical services or going bust first.
couldn’t it be more deadly or even evolve in places with poor conditions such as parts of India, Africa etc
 

golden_blunder

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About to kick off big time I think - nurses refusing to do things with managers then asking and indeed training junior doctors to do their duties. Royal College of Nursing have told their nurses to refuse if unsafe PPE, ditto BMA for the doctors although BMA's statements and saying they'll fight for us is only for refusing to perform "high risk services"

RCN incidentally have said that they will help with legal assistance should nurses face corporate manslaughter charges for refusing to treat patients. BMA have not said anything about providing doctors with the same.

Such a shitshow, its a damn miracle I haven't fallen sick yet treating the patients I have, while constantly battling management as they challenge us as well when we source our own PPE as well, but even that's been difficult. Most of the PPE I've sourced for myself and my colleagues has been visors, masks, coveralls are banned in my hospital unless provided by them (although some GPs are sourcing and using their own in community) but when it comes to gowns haven't been able to find anything. Without gowns healthcare workers will die, literally haven't been able to sleep properly with the stress of it all. Sickening how the government are getting away with this.
It sounds horrendous. I’m sorry that you all have to go through this. It’s a shame that the election was so recent because I reckon they’d be going the extra mile otherwise. As someone else mentioned a few posts back, they could have repurposed factories a months ago. It’s not like this thing is going away anytime soon so countries need to start producing their own gear.
 

Rafaeldagold

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So all the noise is that even after lockdown we’ll likely have to do social distancing for a while after that..how will that work? Guess means pubs, holidays (on close proximity planes) meeting friends, sports events will be off the table for a while? All the end of lockdown wound mean is that we could go back to work or am I missing something?
 

Wolverine

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It sounds horrendous. I’m sorry that you all have to go through this. It’s a shame that the election was so recent because I reckon they’d be going the extra mile otherwise. As someone else mentioned a few posts back, they could have repurposed factories a months ago. It’s not like this thing is going away anytime soon so countries need to start producing their own gear.
It's also hard to hear the propaganda put out by our government that shortages are attributed to misuse of PPE and that deaths are not occupational but through acquisition in the community. Which is so out of sync with reality its outrageous. Not having medics challenging Matt Hancock et al. on live tele is a big part of how they're getting away with their lies to the media.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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Cheers pal, I won't be posting much in here from now on though, having to try and justify a factual test and factual comments by the chief epidemiologist regarding that test for 2 pages a few days back was the straw that broke the camel's back. Far too many in this thread have watched Contagion, followed the outbreak closely and now believe they are experts in the field. And sadly, far too many don't even want to see or hear about a possible positive development which in itself is utterly mental. They certainly don't want to hear that this virus can be slowed even without lockdown.




Peaked at 99, then 66, 62, 63, 67, 56, 56, 45, 38 (the last number likely to be added to due to late reporting). Oh, and like Belgium, Sweden is one of the countries that puts all possible nursing home deaths in the figures, mental to think Holland, UK, Spain and Italy not doing that.

ICU entries has been stable for close to 4 weeks now.



That'll be my last post on the subject for another week, I'll leave the doom merchants to it. Take care of yourself pal.


Gutted to hear that man, I really enjoy reading your posts and especially given that (touch wood) it's a rare slice of positivity in this thread, usually. So interesting to see that Sweden's model is doing 'well' (nobody is doing well really but in the context, definitely). Extremely interesting, and something I'm keeping a very close eye on going forward. Hope to hear updates from you next week, mate.




Yeah everything was handled so (surprisingly) well here. I know a few healthcare workers who have had none of the chaos in their hospitals that was seen in the likes of Italy and the US, too. Still have a few wankers complaining about the lockdown but that's to be expected. I reckon after May 5th we'll see some gradual easing of restrictions, now.

Great news, well done Ireland. Awesome to hear.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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We are mugs run by mugs.

Wouldnt be surprised if this is true - "take zero responsibility and put the blame/onus on the everyday people".

I've been thinking for a while there is no plan. I still think that's the case. They're making it up as they go along and getting away with it. As usual.
 

horsechoker

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So all the noise is that even after lockdown we’ll likely have to do social distancing for a while after that..how will that work? Guess means pubs, holidays (on close proximity planes) meeting friends, sports events will be off the table for a while? All the end of lockdown wound mean is that we could go back to work or am I missing something?
Yeah that's what I imagine will happen, we could have sport back but behind closed doors. Going to the shops will still require you to stand apart. Workplaces will also have to do this where possible. Face masks will be a part of our daily wear until next year.

Best case scenario is that the virus grows weakers and less effective with time.
 

Feed Me

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So all the noise is that even after lockdown we’ll likely have to do social distancing for a while after that..how will that work? Guess means pubs, holidays (on close proximity planes) meeting friends, sports events will be off the table for a while? All the end of lockdown wound mean is that we could go back to work or am I missing something?
From my reading of the situation, your explanation seems about right. Sounds pretty fecking miserable.
 

Skills

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So all the noise is that even after lockdown we’ll likely have to do social distancing for a while after that..how will that work? Guess means pubs, holidays (on close proximity planes) meeting friends, sports events will be off the table for a while? All the end of lockdown wound mean is that we could go back to work or am I missing something?
At the start yes. But eventually, we'll find a way to get those working too. Limit the number of people in pubs (table bookings only), social gatherings limited to X number of people, sports behind closed doors/limit supporters & once they get a quick response test/validated antibody test you can have a coronavirus passport that lets you travel. It's not the end of everything, but there's going to be some teething pains and some work in getting things right.

The airlines/entertainment industry is worth billions and it's in a lot of peoples interest to get them going again to a degree.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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At the start yes. But eventually, we'll find a way to get those working too. Limit the number of people in pubs (table bookings only), social gatherings limited to X number of people, sports behind closed doors/limit supporters & once they get a quick response test/validated antibody test you can have a coronavirus passport that lets you travel. It's not the end of everything, but there's going to be some teething pains and some work in getting things right.

The airlines/entertainment industry is worth billions and it's in a lot of peoples interest to get them going again to a degree.

Good summary in my opinion. It will be the general plan I think. During swine flu, every airport overseas I passed through was testing every single passenger for symptoms. That will likely be the plan going forward, if you test positive, you are ushered into a 14day hotel room quarantine (arriving in your destination) or if you're arriving home, you are advised to isolate for 14days at home, like now.
 

DavelinaJolie

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I really don't understand how not locking down would have been beneficial. I'm obviously missing something but if we are experiencing these numbers right now, what is the benefit of people going about their business? How does that reduce the numbers?
 

cyberman

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I just read that 50 percent of Swedish households are 1 person homes. Is that right? The fact this isnt stamped out because of it confuses me. Plus they have a low density rate.
Their numbers v rest of the world just lost all meaning to me.
 

Skills

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Desperation or confidence?
Neither. Industrialisation is a huge challenge in itself and millions is only just scratching the surface really. Whoever does find the vaccine will need to find a way to produce in the 100s of millions at first.
 

massi83

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I just read that 50 percent of Swedish households are 1 person homes. Is that right? The fact this isnt stamped out because of it confuses me. Plus they have a low density rate.
Their numbers v rest of the world just lost all meaning to me.
First google result from statista.com says 38% (amounting to 20% of population living alone). For UK 28%, so definitely a meaningful difference but less than many think, I assume.

Also google mobility report for Sweden shows they are doing a lot of social-distancing. Transit is down 40% for example. But if I could decide for Finland, I would follow Sweden and Denmark and open the schools.
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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So all the noise is that even after lockdown we’ll likely have to do social distancing for a while after that..how will that work? Guess means pubs, holidays (on close proximity planes) meeting friends, sports events will be off the table for a while? All the end of lockdown wound mean is that we could go back to work or am I missing something?
Yes, it seems to be the rubbish stuff that will be allowed, like commuting to the office and kids going to school. All the stuff that we actually want to do will still be a no go.
 

Rafaeldagold

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yes, because the last 5 years have proven the British public make smart decisions taking into account all available evidence.
Haha so true. With Covid & the govt still pushing ahead with Brexit end if this year with no transition period extension we are in for a world of hurt. Might be best for those that can to think of other places to live
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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I really don't understand how not locking down would have been beneficial. I'm obviously missing something but if we are experiencing these numbers right now, what is the benefit of people going about their business? How does that reduce the numbers?
It wasn't about limiting deaths, it was about protecting the economy. Remember Dominic Cummings' (Boris's chief advisor) quote about "if some old people die then so be it"
 

Rafaeldagold

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Yes, it seems to be the rubbish stuff that will be allowed, like commuting to the office and kids going to school. All the stuff that we actually want to do will still be a no go.
So all the things that make life enjoyable will be off limits. How long will it be before there’s widespread breaking of the measures or basically how long will it be before people can’t take anymore
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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So all the things that make life enjoyable will be off limits. How long will it be before there’s widespread breaking of the measures or basically how long will it be before people can’t take anymore
I'm noticing it already. When I go on my walks I'm finding half the people I pass making no effort to physically distance whatsoever. Seeing more groups of lads (mainly) on bikes or smoking weed. Also hearing of more house parties, pubs with lock ins in an upstairs room, etc.
 

Simbo

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best video i have seen on the subject video may start at 10 mins but watch from start.
:lol: I was expecting an informative video regarding "what's going on" with the bat-shittery on a certain side of policical spectrum, took me a few mintues to realise it was a product of the bat-shittery itself. Made me laugh anyay.

Wish I could understand why so many people are so easily led down this garden path, is it just confirmation bias?

Click the description of that video if you want another laugh, she's some god-botherer, begging for donations and trying to sell some daft unrelated products.
 

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cyberman

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So all the things that make life enjoyable will be off limits. How long will it be before there’s widespread breaking of the measures or basically how long will it be before people can’t take anymore
People cant open pubs etc against government regulations?
Im guessing we arent far off being able to go to see family members etc but anything with crowds just cant open or well be set back to square 1