SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Sarni

nice guy, unassuming, objective United fan.
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Polish borders are closed until 3 May minimum and US borders are closed indefinitely yet KLM have just told me they will take 30 more days to consider whether I should be getting a voucher/rebooking for my flights to San Francisco on 1 May (so they will make a decision after the date) and will not reimburse my return flight at the same time, will have to submit a separate application that will be conditioned on travel restrictions at the time (thought getting on return flight is hard if you don’t actually go to a place you’re supposed to be returning from but what do I know).
 

SteveJ

all-round nice guy, aka Uncle Joe Kardashian
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Telegraph: 7,500 feared to have died of coronavirus in UK care homes

'Care England data suggests fatalities are five times higher than official figures show

The number of care home residents who have died of suspected coronavirus may have reached 7,500, according to the latest estimate, The Telegraph has learned.

New data collated by Care England, the country's largest representative body for care homes, suggests the number of deaths from Covid-19 is far higher than its previous estimate of 1,400 from earlier this week.

The number is also far in advance of the official figure from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which has recorded 217 care home deaths from the virus up to April 3 – the most recent date for which official data is available.

However, as the Government published its daily update on coronavirus hospital deaths on Friday, which showed a rise to 14,576, it emerged that the death toll in UK care homes is suspected to be much bigger than previously feared.

Professor Martin Green, the chief executive of Care England, told The Telegraph that around 7,500 people may have died in care homes as a result of the virus.

"Without testing, it is very difficult to give an absolute figure," he said. "However, if we look at some of the death rates since April 1 and compare them with previous years' rates, we estimate a figure of about 7,500 people may have died as a result of Covid-19."

Care England, which represents around 3,800 homes and more than 50,000 residents, gathered data by "taking a sounding" from its homes.'
 

Jippy

Sleeps with tramps, bangs jacuzzis, dirty shoes
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Tbf to @massi83 he’s only pointing out the contradiction of the post.
I agree that the thread shouldn’t descend into “I told you so battles’ or ‘point scoring’ but it’s a bit naughty from Sammy there and kind of does need to be called out.
Fine, but without links no-one knows what he is on about tbh and it descended into a derailing squabble.
 

Cascarino

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what is happening right now is the book of revelation to a tee. try to deny it .
I can't really think of anything pertinent to the book of revelation that we're seeing here, certainly nothing unique to the book. Can you tell me what's linking them in your mind? It's like me squinting my eyes while reading I am Legend and convincing myself that those who get inoculated are going to start eating people.
 

2cents

Historiographer, and obtainer of rare antiquities
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Quasimodo predicted all this.
 

sammsky1

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Telegraph: 7,500 feared to have died of coronavirus in UK care homes

'Care England data suggests fatalities are five times higher than official figures show

The number of care home residents who have died of suspected coronavirus may have reached 7,500, according to the latest estimate, The Telegraph has learned.

New data collated by Care England, the country's largest representative body for care homes, suggests the number of deaths from Covid-19 is far higher than its previous estimate of 1,400 from earlier this week.

The number is also far in advance of the official figure from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which has recorded 217 care home deaths from the virus up to April 3 – the most recent date for which official data is available.

However, as the Government published its daily update on coronavirus hospital deaths on Friday, which showed a rise to 14,576, it emerged that the death toll in UK care homes is suspected to be much bigger than previously feared.

Professor Martin Green, the chief executive of Care England, told The Telegraph that around 7,500 people may have died in care homes as a result of the virus.

"Without testing, it is very difficult to give an absolute figure," he said. "However, if we look at some of the death rates since April 1 and compare them with previous years' rates, we estimate a figure of about 7,500 people may have died as a result of Covid-19."

Care England, which represents around 3,800 homes and more than 50,000 residents, gathered data by "taking a sounding" from its homes.'
Has Government committed to a date when it will add care home deaths to hospital deaths? Or is this always going to be an asterisk?
 

Revan

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The vaccine will be the special part.
Why is more special than that of smallpox when the entire world got vaccinated and the disease got removed from the face of earth?

btw, that disease had killed a few hundred million only in the 20th century.
 

Wibble

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couldn’t it be more deadly or even evolve in places with poor conditions such as parts of India, Africa etc
It could be more deadly if there are conditions where people live in close proximity and/or poor hygeine exists, especially if medical resources are limited or overwhelmed.

The virus isn't mutating very fast by RNA virus standards at the moment but viruses do tend to evolve at a very high rate. I'm not an expert so I'm only repeating my limited knowledge, so I may well be wrong about certain thjngs.

There are various ways that a virus evolves and changes but what we are talking about here is antigen drift.

RNA viruses like this Coronavirus can mutate fast, which is an advantage (to them) because immunity will last a shorter time and/or be less complete and allows them to spread. The disadvantage is that the majority of changes aren't a benefit and/or make the virus operate worse/not at all so don't proliferate and/or aren't replicated. One side effect is that vaccination programs tend to speed up evolution as the vaccine will target the main strain(s) so the more a strain varies the better it will avoid the immune response a vaccine results in, and that now better adapted strain will proliferate and become the main strain.

As viruses (like parasites) want to spread as fast as possible but with as little damage to their host as possible (a dead host doesn't spread a virus very far) viruses often evolve to be less harmful to their hosts over time. As this Coronavirus is spreading pretty damn well at the moment I'd guess that there isn't much selection pressure for change at the moment, so evolution will be slow (and the evidence so far confirms this) but there will be pressure if/when a vaccine is rolled out. There is no guarantee that the virus will become less harmful at the same time as we head towards herd immunity, but it is quite possible.

Becoming more damaging to their hosts is possible but rare and when it does occur it is likely through another method like antigen shift, which occurs when 2 strains of a virus (or potentially 2 different viruses) recombine. This sort of recombination is likely involved in the creation of this SARS-Co-2 virus that has caused COVID-19.
 
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Skills

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Has Government committed to a date when it will add care home deaths to hospital deaths? Or is this always going to be an asterisk?
I'm guessing they won't. They'll make sure those who died in care homes, aren't tested retrospectively to find out the cause.
 

BobbyManc

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Sunday Times revelations quite damning about the impact austerity has had on the response to the coronavirus crisis, especially in regards to PPE resources and planning for such crises. Yet we had the blind cheerleaders on here denying austerity in the NHS even happened and playing dumb about the impact such a policy could have on a healthcare system’s ability to respond to a pandemic.
 

Devil81

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It's also really similar to the script of Outbreak, starring Dustin Hoffman(also fiction).
No Contagion, now that really messed my head up when watching it the other day.

It's almost like they scripted this whole event ten years ago!!!

You gotta love the god squad though, my cousins wife has spent the last four weeks posting stuff about the world coming to an end and it's gods doing. She then wonders why her daughters heads messed up and getting picked on at school.

How she not gonna be messed up if your mums a religious nutter.
 

Cascarino

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I am not going to try come back on this, for I have already said my piece.
You've stated that their is great similarity to the current situation and Revelations, with it being impossible to deny. Can you not give us a couple of points as to why you think they're linked? From memory, I can't think of anything even a little identifiable, but I can't remember it at all so I'm genuinely curious.

Sunday Times revelations quite damning about the impact austerity has had on the response to the coronavirus crisis, especially in regards to PPE resources and planning for such crises. Yet we had the blind cheerleaders on here denying austerity in the NHS even happened and playing dumb about the impact such a policy could have on a healthcare system’s ability to respond to a pandemic.
I don't think now is the current time for politics. We can revisit the situation in 20 years time but no earlier out of respect for the victims. In the mean time, feel free to spend the next two decades clapping for Boris and/or healthcare workers