SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

F-Red

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UK figures - 16 deaths, 812 cases.

Top 7 (Northampton, Oldham, Blackburn, Pendle, Bradford, Manchester, Leicester) worst affected Local Authorities all showed a decrease of cases.
 

The Cat

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It also shows how many lives we could save if most people had the annual flu vaccine.

I'm really hoping the world learns the value of vaccination. If we did it would almost be worth the pain of the pandemic.
Despite being offered it for free the last few years in work I've never bothered. (I'm 50 in December and just never though it was important).

I will this year though I've decided.
 
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Penna

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450 quid for myself, the missus and our daughter... bargain.

Fair play to Heathrow though for showing the kind of initiative that the dogshit Tory government seems incapable of.
We're flying into Heathrow in early September. If Italy's been put on the quarantine list by then, we'll definitely go for this. It would be better than spending half our time in the UK stuck inside, even if it's expensive.
 

Dancfc

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We're flying into Heathrow in early September. If Italy's been put on the quarantine list by then, we'll definitely go for this. It would be better than spending half our time in the UK stuck inside, even if it's expensive.
Looking at the numbers it will take a serious escalation for Italy to go on the list by then.
 

Wibble

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Despite being offered it for free the last few years in work I've never bothered. (I'm 50 in December and just never though it was important).

I will this year though I've decided.
I've had it every year since I had flu ibadly in 2009. Only had it (probably) once since and then it was mild.
 
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11101

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840 cases in Italy today. The change seems to have (predictably) been the August travel season and the removal of a requirement for masks at all times.

I'm on the hunt for a weight set now as I cant see gyms staying open long at this rate.
 

Revan

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Johnson and Johnson starting stage 3 trials next month, with 60k volunteers.

I am becoming increasingly confident that there will be massive vaccinations early next year.
 

Skills

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UK 6 deaths and 1182 cases
The lower death numbers, what are they more likely to be due to :

a. Better tracking/tracing and testing capacity
b. Being better at treating the disease
c. Still quite early of the cases lifecycle

Its probably a combination of many of those factors, but would be interesting to know what's primarily driving it. If it's better tracking/tracing - what does that tell us about the 'true' number of infections during the earlier wave
 
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The lower death numbers, what are they more likely to be due to :

a. Better tracking/tracing and testing capacity
b. Being better at treating the disease
c. Still quite early of the cases lifecycle

Its probably a combination of many of those factors, but would be interesting to know what's primarily driving it. If it's better tracking/tracing - what does that tell us about the 'true' number of infections during the earlier wave
d. Less care homes getting infected.
e. more 20-30 year olds in case numbers.
f. Quite possibly a fair amount of people susceptible to dying of Covid-19 have already lost their lives to the virus.

The “true” number during the first wave in harder hit places was likely absolutely through the roof as you hint on. As early as late Feb many places were utterly riddled.
 

djembatheking

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d. Less care homes getting infected.
e. more 20-30 year olds in case numbers.
f. Quite possibly a fair amount of people susceptible to dying of Covid-19 have already lost their lives to the virus.

The “true” number during the first wave in harder hit places was likely absolutely through the roof as you hint on. As early as late Feb many places were utterly riddled.
Looks like that. The elderly and other vulnerable are more than likely still keeping themselves isolated which in a way is easier to do as a lot will be retired and getting their pensions. As you said you would think the higher case numbers will be younger folk having to get on with things and earn a living. All good really, just need a vaccine now to free up the elderly and the vulnerable so they can get out and about again.
 

Pogue Mahone

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The lower death numbers, what are they more likely to be due to :

a. Better tracking/tracing and testing capacity
b. Being better at treating the disease
c. Still quite early of the cases lifecycle

Its probably a combination of many of those factors, but would be interesting to know what's primarily driving it. If it's better tracking/tracing - what does that tell us about the 'true' number of infections during the earlier wave
I’ve been assuming c as by far the most important factor. Although that assumes that cases three or four weeks ago were quite low. Can anyone who is closer to the Uk figures than me remember what sort of case number were we seeing every day towards the end of last month? If they were similar to what we’re seeing now then you can’t really assume that deaths will take off over the next few weeks. Which would be very reassuring.
 
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Portugal, who’s increased mortality went through the roof all through July and start of August, despite them reporting low Covid deaths, now off the UK quarantine list.
Appears bullshitting pays off.
 

0le

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Can anyone who is closer to the Uk figures than me remember what sort of case number were we seeing every day towards the end of last month? If they were similar to what we’re seeing now then you can’t really assume that deaths will take off over the next few weeks. Which would be very reassuring.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

Friday 24 July - 768
Saturday 25 July - 767
Sunday 26 July - 747
Monday 27 July - 685
Tuesday 28 July - 581
Wednesday 29 July - 763
Thursday 30 July - 846
Friday 31 July - 880

Thursday 13 August - 1129
Friday 14 August - 1441
Saturday 15 August - 1077
Sunday 16 August - 1040
Monday 17 August - 713
Tuesday 18 August - 1089
Wednesday 19 August - 812
Thursday 20 August - 1182
 
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Pogue Mahone

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https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

Friday 24 July - 768
Saturday 25 July - 767
Sunday 26 July - 747
Monday 27 July - 685
Tuesday 28 July - 581
Wednesday 29 July - 763
Thursday 30 July - 846
Friday 31 July - 880

Thursday 13 August - 1129
Friday 14 August - 1441
Saturday 15 August - 1077
Sunday 16 August - 1040
Monday 17 August - 713
Tuesday 18 August - 1089
Wednesday 19 August - 812
Thursday 20 August - 1182
Cool. Thanks.
 

Wibble

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Good news in Australia. NSW only 1 new case and Victoria under 200 new cases for the first time in a few weeks. Lockdown is working well.
 

Stack

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Good news in Australia. NSW only 1 new case and Victoria under 200 new cases for the first time in a few weeks. Lockdown is working well.
I just read that, great news. Also impressive how Aussie has been able get some control over the virus and keep other states safe.
 

redshaw

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How are hospital admissions looking in France @JPRouve? And is it the same areas as the first wave seeing increases?
The BBC article said it hasn't changed much to it being younger people.

In Spain however deaths are said to be more than 10x higher than last month, the average age of confirmed cases in about 39, lower than 60 during the height so they're worried things will get worse if it reaches more older people.
 

JPRouve

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How are hospital admissions looking in France @JPRouve? And is it the same areas as the first wave seeing increases?
Hospitalisations are low and there is a negligeable increase if you take into account people that are returning home. As for the difference with the first wave is that it's pretty much all the big cities/dense areas that are seeing an increase in cases with Mayennes and Laval being the strange one because their community infection has been strangely high for a while. Funnily enough if you take a population density map of France and the current incidence map, they kind of match. Basically the Empty Diagonal is fine but the rest is seeing increases.
 

Smores

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The younger demographic in most european countries have really let everyone down. There's obviously an argument about government control vs personal responsibility but they really should understand the gravity of their actions.

It seems likely the youth wave of infections is going to kick start infections rising across other demographics. Can anyone see any reasons it wouldn't?
 

Stack

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What were the NZ figures today?
11 community transmissions today, up from yesterdays 5 community transmissions and 1 border catch. When we were this low the first time there was a week or so of 2-3 good days and then a little spike then 2-3 good days. I think that also holds true for the countries with bigger numbers but who are getting better, every now and then a daily spike. The good news out of this set of new cases over the last couple of weeks for us has been its exposed some weaknesses and gaps in the system so hopefully they are tightened up for the next breach we get which will happen. Its going to be an ongoing process.
 

Pogue Mahone

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The younger demographic in most european countries have really let everyone down. There's obviously an argument about government control vs personal responsibility but they really should understand the gravity of their actions.

It seems likely the youth wave of infections is going to kick start infections rising across other demographics. Can anyone see any reasons it wouldn't?
Maybe elderly/vulnerable people continuing to be very careful? When the virus first hit they would have been packed into pubs, churches etc and allowing grandkids climb all over them. I get the impression most elderly people have radically changed their behaviour and will continue to do so for a while. Also, care homes have much betted procedures in place to protect them.

Having said all that, once enough young people are infected it’s inevitable that a proportion of the most vulnerable will too.
 

11101

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Fecking hell. Spain is in trouble. If deaths are already on the up too then it’s going to get ugly soon.

I wonder why their cases are shooting up so much faster than UK/Germany/Italy. Anyone got any ideas?
BBC has an article to answer that very question.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53832981

It's nothing to worry about yet. 75% of cases are asymptomatic, 3% need hospital, and 0.3% are dying. It's some combination of younger people, better testing, better treatment, more awareness and probably others I am forgetting. We are much better prepared for round two.
 

redshaw

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Yes old people and pretty much everyone were caught out in Feb/Mar going about their normal life. Behaviour has completely changed and also there will be a large difference in testing and general awareness. A rise in cases will make the news early so older people can keep their guard up and not stay around younger friends and relatives.

Still, younger people look after the old in various care homes and will eventually pass some of it on even with protocols in place and also depending on culture, some elderly will be living at home with younger people.
 

Smores

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Maybe elderly/vulnerable people continuing to be very careful? When the virus first hit they would have been packed into pubs, churches etc and allowing grandkids climb all over them. I get the impression most elderly people have radically changed their behaviour and will continue to do so for a while. Also, care homes have much betted procedures in place to protect them.

Having said all that, once enough young people are infected it’s inevitable that a proportion of the most vulnerable will too.
It certainly feels inevitable. I'm sure growth will be slower and i expect a lot less deaths so it's not as doom and gloom as last time.

I'm just disappointed in the 18-25 group who seem like they will have indirectly caused deaths. It's not even just deaths but they'll have created further economic harm, closure of businesses, loss of freedom for vulnerable. All with a vaccine round the corner!

Hopefully governments cut off the sources of transmission and the change in lifestyles makes it naturally peter out.
 

Jacko21

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Maybe elderly/vulnerable people continuing to be very careful? When the virus first hit they would have been packed into pubs, churches etc and allowing grandkids climb all over them. I get the impression most elderly people have radically changed their behaviour and will continue to do so for a while. Also, care homes have much betted procedures in place to protect them.

Having said all that, once enough young people are infected it’s inevitable that a proportion of the most vulnerable will too.
I get that sense in and around where I live.

And shielding may have officially ended, but I (like many others) am continuing to curtail my usual behaviour.

I do worry about the elderly population in particular. My grandmother hasn't left her home since March and you can see it has really take its toll. And we're only in August.
 

acnumber9

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I feel a little uncomfortable with people being blamed for deaths when the Government is giving people financial incentive to go out.