SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

mitChley

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A friend of mine died from Covid a couple of days ago, only just found out. Only 34 years old. He was overweight so was at a higher risk.
 

AltiUn

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A friend of mine died from Covid a couple of days ago, only just found out. Only 34 years old. He was overweight so was at a higher risk.
My condolences, hope you're doing okay mate.
 

NYAS

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“Assistant Professor of Global Health” from LSE was just on Sky talking about how “we will have to live with some form of travel restrictions for years to come”. Thought that was a bit over the top.

It seems to me this year should be the final “lockdown” year - in the sense that I’ve read that many countries hope to complete a large percentage of vaccinations by the end of the year. The “booster jabs” for the variants are expected to be ready by the autumn, and if I’m not mistaken, even without the booster jabs, the vaccines currently available are still effective at preventing severe infections, hospitalisations and deaths from the new variants. At which point I assume a vaccinated person contracting Covid would only have a mild flu-like experience at worst.

It seems that the point where vaccines have been offered to everyone, and are readily available, is the point when restrictions may be fully lifted and social distancing not required any longer. I mean sure, some behaviours are likely to change forever (I’ve already gotten more used to fist-pumping than hand-shaking); but surely we can’t stay under restrictions just because your average anti-vaxxer hasn’t had his/her jab.
 

Eire Red United

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“Assistant Professor of Global Health” from LSE was just on Sky talking about how “we will have to live with some form of travel restrictions for years to come”. Thought that was a bit over the top.

It seems to me this year should be the final “lockdown” year - in the sense that I’ve read that many countries hope to complete a large percentage of vaccinations by the end of the year. The “booster jabs” for the variants are expected to be ready by the autumn, and if I’m not mistaken, even without the booster jabs, the vaccines currently available are still effective at preventing severe infections, hospitalisations and deaths from the new variants. At which point I assume a vaccinated person contracting Covid would only have a mild flu-like experience at worst.

It seems that the point where vaccines have been offered to everyone, and are readily available, is the point when restrictions may be fully lifted and social distancing not required any longer. I mean sure, some behaviours are likely to change forever (I’ve already gotten more used to fist-pumping than hand-shaking); but surely we can’t stay under restrictions just because your average anti-vaxxer hasn’t had his/her jab.
You’d like to think that once all at risk people have been vaccinated (hopefully by the summer) then we can go back to almost normal, with maybe some travel restrictions i.e. 2 negative tests. Can’t see it though....
 

Dumbstar

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SirAF

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I don't travel much on buses but whenever I do it's always with two masks on. Without having a medical background I use the no shit Sherlock method to be safe. I wish this information could have been made public months ago. :(

Anyway, 1001 deaths reported today sadly. Was hoping for sub 1000 but hopefully this is the last 4 digit number we see.
It seems pretty logical yeah, but it’s nice to see the science confirming it as well.
 

Compton22

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Interesting read

Highlights the importance of keeping infection rates low so that the virus has less and less chances to mutate. Unthinkable that almost a year ago, the UK government were trying to achieve herd immunity.
 

Wolverine

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Can you post it?

I reckon the Beeb and others should have been regularly screening reports from IC wards every night for 15 minutes at primetime just to remind people what's at stake.
It's available here
https://www.rte.ie/player/movie/rté-investigates-covid-19-the-third-wave/182973991973

I've got friends from med school working in Irish hospitals, can't imagine a more resilient group of people. The working conditions for them, nursing staff and healthcare assistants including workload have always been criminal but even more so during the pandemic
 

Grinner

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It's available here
https://www.rte.ie/player/movie/rté-investigates-covid-19-the-third-wave/182973991973

I've got friends from med school working in Irish hospitals, can't imagine a more resilient group of people. The working conditions for them, nursing staff and healthcare assistants including workload have always been criminal but even more so during the pandemic
Cheers for that. @golden_blunder your link didn't work for me.

That was a good watch. There's so many facets to this pandemic but clearly the debt of gratitude owed to those carers is huge.
 

Mr Pigeon

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Can any experts (@esmufc07 ) explain to an idiot like me if it's likely that, due to the variants that keep popping up, we could potentially end up with years of various lockdowns? Or is the Oxford vaccine just plain shit* when it comes to dealing with other variants and there's not really much to panic over?

*It's not really shit, it's a marvel of modern medicine, but you get my point.
 

jojojo

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Can any experts (@esmufc07 ) explain to an idiot like me if it's likely that, due to the variants that keep popping up, we could potentially end up with years of various lockdowns? Or is the Oxford vaccine just plain shit* when it comes to dealing with other variants and there's not really much to panic over?

*It's not really shit, it's a marvel of modern medicine, but you get my point.
Not an expert but...
I think a lot of it isn't about technical stuff, it's about human behaviour, so anyone's guess really.

I think we'll see years of border controls, mask wearing on planes etc. The covid vaccines have been remarkably fast, and they'll adapt them fast as variants reduce efficacy. I think annual vaccinations for flu will turn into a winter vaccination for multiple things and the number of people who need it will rise.

It's almost inevitable that there will be jobs/activities where vaccination and/or regular testing become routine requirements.

As impressed as I am with the vaccines, I'll admit I've been disappointed with the tests so far. I'm hoping that quick tests will get steadily better and easier to administer. We might not get to the "lick the piece of paper, and it'll change colour" sort of simple. But if someone can come up with the equivalent of a breathalyser test for covid, then that would be huge.

As for lockdowns where you can't go to school, can't see family/friends, can't go to the seaside, can't have a game of 5-a-side etc. I don't think people can do that for much longer. So, I think that will stop. Stopping it without killing too many will be complicated - reopening on site teaching at universities for example, doesn't sound great, unless vaccination/testing is in place.
 

WPMUFC

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Interesting read

i might sound like a complete ass....but HOW is this not common knowledge? Isn't the idea of virus mutation just a given "broadly known fact" in society? Isn't it a well known fact that if you just let disease run rampant in a society, it can change?

I feel like this article is trying it's best, but in reality the headline is the equivalent of "did you know the sun is hot"?

I don't feel like i actually follow biological science news or really keep up with virology studies but you scroll the comments and there's some people talking about mutation as "something scary out of a movie"

WHAT!!?? :lol: :houllier: Are societies going to actually act shocked that uncontrolled and widespread infection could lead to dangerous mutations?
 

F-Red

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Can any experts (@esmufc07 ) explain to an idiot like me if it's likely that, due to the variants that keep popping up, we could potentially end up with years of various lockdowns? Or is the Oxford vaccine just plain shit* when it comes to dealing with other variants and there's not really much to panic over?

*It's not really shit, it's a marvel of modern medicine, but you get my point.
I'm no expert, but I don't think we'll see years of this lockdown process, the goal in all of this has been ensuring health care systems do not get overrun. We're seeing regularly, the discovery of new treatments to help patients being admitted so healthcare systems are learning quickly how to treat it. Vaccines will need some alterations annually to manage the new variants as it mutates (akin to how the flu vaccine works). More and more manufacturers will come on board in the coming years, so the way in which to manage this will become easier.

What we may see is some differing ways of things like air travel, akin to the changes the world made after the 9/11 plane attacks.
 

NinjaFletch

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i might sound like a complete ass....but HOW is this not common knowledge? Isn't the idea of virus mutation just a given "broadly known fact" in society? Isn't it a well known fact that if you just let disease run rampant in a society, it can change?

I feel like this article is trying it's best, but in reality the headline is the equivalent of "did you know the sun is hot"?

I don't feel like i actually follow biological science news or really keep up with virology studies but you scroll the comments and there's some people talking about mutation as "something scary out of a movie"

WHAT!!?? :lol: :houllier: Are societies going to actually act shocked that uncontrolled and widespread infection could lead to dangerous mutations?
Actually, if you don't know that viruses are likely to mutate then you're qualified to run test and trace in the UK:

https://www.channel4.com/news/factc...ef-claims-variant-couldnt-have-been-predicted
 

Pogue Mahone

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Did you read it? Makes a lot of very good points.
I did. Although I was tempted to stop with the outrageous bullshit in the first couple of paragraphs about medical scientists taking their kids out of school for two weeks when another kid is sick. He doesn’t make any good points. Just whinges about how hard life is and takes some childish cheap shots at some of the experts who have to make tough decisions. It’s not even well written.

There is an interesting discussion to be had about where we go from here. I think the Zero Covid stuff is a pipe dream and get annoyed at the tactics used to sell it to us. Here’s a genuinely interesting article about the tough decisions ahead and why there needs to be debate. Much better than that dross.
 

P-Nut

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I did. Although I was tempted to stop with the outrageous bullshit in the first couple of paragraphs about medical scientists taking their kids out of school for two weeks when another kid is sick. He doesn’t make any good points. Just whinges about how hard life is and takes some childish cheap shots at some of the experts who have to make tough decisions. It’s not even well written.

There is an interesting discussion to be had about where we go from here. I think the Zero Covid stuff is a pipe dream and get annoyed at the tactics used to sell it to us. Here’s a genuinely interesting article about the tough decisions ahead and why there needs to be debate. Much better than that dross.
Cheers for that article, just shared it with a couple of mates that have been harping on about being like New Zealand and Australia for a good while now.

I do think the jump from using China as an example, to warning we'd be in the exact same situation is a little much though due to the massive political and social differences between the two countries.
 

BD

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He seems to run a company that does home office setups for people, so I'd say he's definitely biased. While there are certainly some good aspects to working from home, I think people should be reluctant to allow their company to go fully WFH.

And $2,000 for the 'best remote setup on the planet' might be true, but if people are still working from the corner of their bedroom, no set-up will make that any less grim over an extended period.
 

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golden_blunder

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Makes me boil the thoughts of them jsut fecking off on holidays while we are locking down

Then again going on holiday is now to be looked on with disdain because of this virus ! feck me
I agree, it’s not fair to those of us trying to do the right things whilst the “don’t give 2 flying fcuks” brigade do what they want as usual
 

Garethw

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I’m getting sick and tired of hearing every fecking journalist banging on about summer holidays.

I’d like to be able to have my mother round for a cup of tea. I’d like to be able to try a new pair of jeans on in a shop. I’d like to be able to have a socially distanced beer with my friends.

But no, what’s important to so many idiots is travelling around the world spreading infection and feck the consequences.
 

Mr Pigeon

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Not an expert but...
I think a lot of it isn't about technical stuff, it's about human behaviour, so anyone's guess really.

I think we'll see years of border controls, mask wearing on planes etc. The covid vaccines have been remarkably fast, and they'll adapt them fast as variants reduce efficacy. I think annual vaccinations for flu will turn into a winter vaccination for multiple things and the number of people who need it will rise.

It's almost inevitable that there will be jobs/activities where vaccination and/or regular testing become routine requirements.

As impressed as I am with the vaccines, I'll admit I've been disappointed with the tests so far. I'm hoping that quick tests will get steadily better and easier to administer. We might not get to the "lick the piece of paper, and it'll change colour" sort of simple. But if someone can come up with the equivalent of a breathalyser test for covid, then that would be huge.

As for lockdowns where you can't go to school, can't see family/friends, can't go to the seaside, can't have a game of 5-a-side etc. I don't think people can do that for much longer. So, I think that will stop. Stopping it without killing too many will be complicated - reopening on site teaching at universities for example, doesn't sound great, unless vaccination/testing is in place.
I'm no expert, but I don't think we'll see years of this lockdown process, the goal in all of this has been ensuring health care systems do not get overrun. We're seeing regularly, the discovery of new treatments to help patients being admitted so healthcare systems are learning quickly how to treat it. Vaccines will need some alterations annually to manage the new variants as it mutates (akin to how the flu vaccine works). More and more manufacturers will come on board in the coming years, so the way in which to manage this will become easier.

What we may see is some differing ways of things like air travel, akin to the changes the world made after the 9/11 plane attacks.
Thanks folks, some very grounded observations. If anyone needs me, though, I'll still be in the bunker that belongs to @Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær