SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

horsechoker

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With all these new variants popping up, and probably evolving more and more to be resistant to the vaccines, it feels like we could be in lockdown to varying degrees in perpetuity
Don't see it happening as people won't perpetually put up with lockdowns and will just get around the rules even more than they do now.
 

Cardboard elk

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So another freakish case yesterday. Was evaluating a 67 year old woman with no priors for an extremely acute dementia. She actually came because she fainted but as I was about to discharge her she started to make some extremely weird questions and I explored her mental state more deeply. Eventually called her husband who told me she was acting very weird for the last 4 days. I called neurology and we decided to have her stay for the night for a brain CT-scan this morning. She spent all night behaving like someone with mid-stage dementia. Coming to me with weird questions (like wanting to pay me for my work several times), forgetting what exam she was about to make, thinking it was already time to leave, etc. I even have the impression her cognitive state deteriorated during my 12-hour shift with her. As the CT came without major changes, neurology wanted to evaluate for epilepsy and electroencepahlography is only available during week days. As she had to wait more than 48 hours in total, she did a Covid test which came positive.

It's either a big coincidence (our incidence is still reasonably low) or is that Covid presenting as acute dementia... Never heard of something like that yet. Perhaps micro-strokes due to coagulation problems?
I am no doctor, but I remembered reading about something like this in sideeffects in newspapers at home (bit more long term side effects).
There has been articles at home about brain tissue damage due to covid-19. I found this link in one of them: https://n.neurology.org/content/95/12/e1754
Another study has also showed a higher risk for developing Alzherimers, Parkinsons and other mental health problems due to covid-19. https://alz-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/alz.12255
 

maniak

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At the risk of turning this into an episode of House did you do a tox screen? Would also wonder about drug induced delerium. Maybe accidental overdose? A guy I know once had both his parents admitted via A&E in an acute confusional state only to later find out they’d found some hash brownies he’d made and ate the lot!
So it's not lupus?
 

Arruda

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At the risk of turning this into an episode of House did you do a tox screen? Would also wonder about drug induced delerium. Maybe accidental overdose? A guy I know once had both his parents admitted via A&E in an acute confusional state only to later find out they’d found some hash brownies he’d made and ate the lot!
:lol:
Socioeconomic context made all those unlikey, even the medication story doesn't fit with that - none, and believable. It's a small land, we know people well, though of course surprises always occur. If intoxication is a cause, it will be noticed very soon anyway, as she becomes abstinent. At least 36 hours ago...

I think it's probably dementia, early signs not valued by the family yet (needs more time for history, not in A/E where I work). Probably got decompensated by early Covid infection and made it more obvious. I'll follow the record, I do that often for cases that interest me.

So it's not lupus?
:lol:
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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Don't see it happening as people won't perpetually put up with lockdowns and will just get around the rules even more than they do now.
What can people do though, realistically? Will probably mean the end for the hospitality industry (and overseas travel) so not many places to meet up anyway, apart from houses. People seem to have got used to being locked down now and many even seem to oppose any attempts to open things up.
 

Bosws87

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With all these new variants popping up, and probably evolving more and more to be resistant to the vaccines, it feels like we could be in lockdown to varying degrees in perpetuity
Wrong immunity will be built up throughout the population even if one can evade some of the protective measures of your immune system you will still have some form of protection so will become ill but a lot less then when the whole thing originally started.

Which is why all pandemics eventually filter out we can just "cheat the system" as such with vaccine technology these days to speed up the process.
 

Brwned

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What can people do though, realistically? Will probably mean the end for the hospitality industry (and overseas travel) so not many places to meet up anyway, apart from houses. People seem to have got used to being locked down now and many even seem to oppose any attempts to open things up.
We might have localised quarantines for major outbreaks, but booster vaccines for the vulnerable will ensure the NHS won't be at risk of being overwhelmed and the decisions will then change entirely. National lockdowns in perpetuity isn't remotely plausible.
 

Sarni

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It's ridiculously bad here. 35%+ of tests are coming back positive and we are only testing 80k-90k per day. 'Lockdown' we are in is a joke because you can still go pretty much everywhere, only thing is shopping malls and restaurants are closed and even then restaurants have been opening against restrictions, and the few that have done this are absolutely packed now. Churches are open for Easter time too and you can expect them to be slammed with people despite theoretical 1 person per 20 sqm restriction. We are also getting 600 covid-related deaths per day, 100-150 without any secondary diseases present and excess deaths are at 1k+ per day.

Many laughed at me last year when I said this could go on for a few years on and off with significant restrictions during that time. At this point I'd take a long year lockdown if I was guaranteed back to normal in Q2 2022.
 

Pogue Mahone

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It's ridiculously bad here. 35%+ of tests are coming back positive and we are only testing 80k-90k per day. 'Lockdown' we are in is a joke because you can still go pretty much everywhere, only thing is shopping malls and restaurants are closed and even then restaurants have been opening against restrictions, and the few that have done this are absolutely packed now. Churches are open for Easter time too and you can expect them to be slammed with people despite theoretical 1 person per 20 sqm restriction. We are also getting 600 covid-related deaths per day, 100-150 without any secondary diseases present and excess deaths are at 1k+ per day.

Many laughed at me last year when I said this could go on for a few years on and off with significant restrictions during that time. At this point I'd take a long year lockdown if I was guaranteed back to normal in Q2 2022.
The length this damn thing goes on for is the biggest surprise/shock for me. Apparently this is all down to the long incubation phase. If it had been an influenza virus it would all be done and dusted by now.
 

Berbasbullet

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It's ridiculously bad here. 35%+ of tests are coming back positive and we are only testing 80k-90k per day. 'Lockdown' we are in is a joke because you can still go pretty much everywhere, only thing is shopping malls and restaurants are closed and even then restaurants have been opening against restrictions, and the few that have done this are absolutely packed now. Churches are open for Easter time too and you can expect them to be slammed with people despite theoretical 1 person per 20 sqm restriction. We are also getting 600 covid-related deaths per day, 100-150 without any secondary diseases present and excess deaths are at 1k+ per day.

Many laughed at me last year when I said this could go on for a few years on and off with significant restrictions during that time. At this point I'd take a long year lockdown if I was guaranteed back to normal in Q2 2022.
Where’s here? :( sounds awful buddy.
 

Mb194dc

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It's ridiculously bad here. 35%+ of tests are coming back positive and we are only testing 80k-90k per day. 'Lockdown' we are in is a joke because you can still go pretty much everywhere, only thing is shopping malls and restaurants are closed and even then restaurants have been opening against restrictions, and the few that have done this are absolutely packed now. Churches are open for Easter time too and you can expect them to be slammed with people despite theoretical 1 person per 20 sqm restriction. We are also getting 600 covid-related deaths per day, 100-150 without any secondary diseases present and excess deaths are at 1k+ per day.

Many laughed at me last year when I said this could go on for a few years on and off with significant restrictions during that time. At this point I'd take a long year lockdown if I was guaranteed back to normal in Q2 2022.
Firmly believe it'll go on essentially forever with yearly peaks and troughs similar to Influenza. Plenty of countries with low median age populations who have loads of other diseases that make Covid look like nothing will never have any will or need to try and control it. In Africa for example you get 400k~ annual deaths from Malaria alone, mainly young children.

I don't see how you can have SARS-CoV2 endemic in huge portions of the world and not expect it to continually spread back elsewhere. Sure you can do like China or Australia and turn your country in to a Covid fortress, you'll have to keep that up indefinitely, even if it takes a hundred or a thousand years Covid gets in eventually and becomes endemic just like everywhere else.

The future looks like a managed version living with it for me, nature isn't actually giving us a choice here. Eventually people will see it like Influenza, though that could take a while.
 

Stack

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Firmly believe it'll go on essentially forever with yearly peaks and troughs similar to Influenza. Plenty of countries with low median age populations who have loads of other diseases that make Covid look like nothing will never have any will or need to try and control it. In Africa for example you get 400k~ annual deaths from Malaria alone, mainly young children.

I don't see how you can have SARS-CoV2 endemic in huge portions of the world and not expect it to continually spread back elsewhere. Sure you can do like China or Australia and turn your country in to a Covid fortress, you'll have to keep that up indefinitely, even if it takes a hundred or a thousand years Covid gets in eventually and becomes endemic just like everywhere else.

The future looks like a managed version living with it for me, nature isn't actually giving us a choice here. Eventually people will see it like Influenza, though that could take a while.
I was under the impression that the data coming from countries working through their vaccination processes was showing significant drops in new infections through each age group as they do them.
 

Mb194dc

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I was under the impression that the data coming from countries working through their vaccination processes was showing significant drops in new infections through each age group as they do them.
Antigenic evolution makes it probable we'll need new vaccines pretty often.

That is also what happens with Influenza.

Evolutionary game of cat and mouse essentially.

Will be part of living with it. As with Influenza eventually fades to the background.
 

Stack

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Antigenic evolution makes it probable we'll need new vaccines pretty often.

That is also what happens with Influenza.

Evolutionary game of cat and mouse essentially.

Will be part of living with it. As with Influenza eventually fades to the background.
Yeah but once this vaccine set has been delivered to the majority of the worlds population we will see countries no longer needing to lockdown. Yes there will need to be follow up vaccines to deal with new strains but we wont be seeing the sort of years we have in 2020 and 2021. Sure we will have to live with it but its not going to be as restrictive going forward.
 

Traub

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I'm just wondering what is the plan for countries like Australia and NZ? Even with everyone vaccinated, opening up their borders will result in cases. Are they hoping that at this point, there won't be any serious cases?
 

Stack

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I'm just wondering what is the plan for countries like Australia and NZ? Even with everyone vaccinated, opening up their borders will result in cases. Are they hoping that at this point, there won't be any serious cases?
We are due in NZ to finish vaccinating the population around the end of August. I think we are looking to ease the borders open around xmas and most likely limit entry to counties with some sort of handle on things. Im expecting to see the virus take hold here among those who wouldnt or couldnt be vaccinated and we will see some deaths and illness but hopefully in pretty limited numbers. We have been incredibly lucky down here not just in terms of being an island nation and being able to close borders but also in terms of our economy. Really good export numbers, unemployment hasnt gone up too much and the economy faring better than most. However when we do open up there will be some form of living with the virus that we havent yet had to do which will be a battle I think.
 

Wibble

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I'm just wondering what is the plan for countries like Australia and NZ? Even with everyone vaccinated, opening up their borders will result in cases. Are they hoping that at this point, there won't be any serious cases?
In Australia the plan was that every adult who wanted it would have had both doses of primarily AZ by October. We are rolling out very slowly so that looks borderline impossible now. Everyone getting even one shot may be ambitious.

No exact plans regarding opening up have been revealed and as it is the Federal government (as opposed to the State government who have been very good) they probably don't know wtf is going on. At the moment there are having trouble working out why they can't spin their way out of the various sexual assault/rape allegations or faking having even an ounce of human decency, so they are even more hopeless than usual (already a very low bar). I have a feeling international borders to most countries will be locked until late 21 or even early 22. I hope the former so we can see my son for Christmas. Two years is a very long time between hugs when he was a few days past his 21st last time we saw him in person.
 
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groovyalbert

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Kind of inevitable when relaxing rules as soon as Easter holidays started. They look like college students rather than uni ones.
 

utdalltheway

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EDIT: Although calling 67 “elderly” is a stretch. The older I get the further out I push the transition from middle-aged to elderly!
Off topic but I picked up on this one.
My much older brother got into a car crash a short while back. A young lady nearby made the call for the ambulance. He heard her say on the phone that an elderly man had been in car crash. I think that got him more than his car being totalled. He said he was wondering who she was talking about. :lol:
 

Pogue Mahone

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So here's a another new variant plot twist.

At the end of February, the public health agency (ARS) was informed by the Lannion hospital of a "worrying cluster" where 71 people tested positive to Covid-19 (44 patients and 27 workers).

Three weeks later, on 13 March, the number was revised to 79 positive cases, eight of them found to be carrying the so-called "20-C" variant, the scientific name given to the mutation.

"What we found strange was that some of these infected people had done up to four negative tests," said one hospital source.

Scientists are now trying to establish if the mutations in the Brittany variant are such that the virus become undetectable to nasal PCR testing. If that turns out to be the case, then the number of those infected could be much higher.
These fcukers are like the Avengers. What's their next super power going to be?
 

Sparky_Hughes

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That can happen when you get sideswiped by a new, much more contagious variant that developed in a country where the virus was allowed to spread freely without adequate lockdown measures. Which we’ve seen in places with large swathes of underprivileged people living in slums. Such as Brazil, South Africa or Kent.
This post deserves more love :lol:
 

stu_1992

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So here's a another new variant plot twist.



These fcukers are like the Avengers. What's their next super power going to be?
I've followed this one as its relatively local to me. I'd need to pull up the right source, but there was talk that an issue with this strain here is that is harder to detect and that pcr tests on it were less effectively. However last I saw there wasn't any indication it was more contagious or had more serious effects.
 

prateik

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No wonder the Chinese govt insists on anal swabs.

they made the virus.. they should know how it works.. amiriteguys
.....
 

finneh

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The fallacy of minimising restrictions to benefit the economy

Given that some of the best performing countries on that list had far more relaxed restrictions than some of the worst performers it seems disingenuous to use it to infer that more restrictions mean less damage to the economy.

In fact looking at that list if you discount China and Australia (countries with very unique characteristics) you could use that data to argue the complete opposite.

The truth of course is that economic effects (like death rate) are far more nuanced than merely the level of restrictions implemented.

That's before even considering that the death rates of some of the countries on the list are markedly underreported. Mexico for example saw nearly 350,000 excess deaths between the start of the pandemic and the end of January (over 2500 deaths per 100,000 by now).

Criticising the UK shambles (up until the vaccine of course) is so easy that there's no need to be insincere to make a point.
 

Wibble

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Given that some of the best performing countries on that list had far more relaxed restrictions than some of the worst performers it seems disingenuous to use it to infer that more restrictions mean less damage to the economy.

In fact looking at that list if you discount China and Australia (countries with very unique characteristics) you could use that data to argue the complete opposite.

The truth of course is that economic effects (like death rate) are far more nuanced than merely the level of restrictions implemented.

That's before even considering that the death rates of some of the countries on the list are markedly underreported. Mexico for example saw nearly 350,000 excess deaths between the start of the pandemic and the end of January (over 2500 deaths per 100,000 by now).

Criticising the UK shambles (up until the vaccine of course) is so easy that there's no need to be insincere to make a point.
The trend line isn't lying. And the best performing countries all had the most restrictions. Some of those that were close economically came at the cost of a huge death toll (500+ per million of pop) and likely would have done better still economically if they hadn't unnecessarily sacrificed their citizens in the name of the economy. And none of the countries who locked down really hard had mass death or bad economic damage (by comparison).
 
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Given that some of the best performing countries on that list had far more relaxed restrictions than some of the worst performers it seems disingenuous to use it to infer that more restrictions mean less damage to the economy.

In fact looking at that list if you discount China and Australia (countries with very unique characteristics) you could use that data to argue the complete opposite.
It always completely fails to comprehend that Denmark or Germany’s GDP is directly affected by the restrictions of France, UK, Spain etc in a way Australia or South Korea never will be.

It once completely fails to comprehend how an island nation like Australia simply cannot be compared to Germany, a country smack bang in the middle of a continent.

How’s hard line restrictions Portugal’s GDP doing vs. much softer Denmark?

I also saw Wibbs reckoning countries “sacrificied lives for the economy” which once again is utter drivel for the most part.

In short, I’m amazed that over 1 year in Wibbs still thinks there’s one answer for all countries. That’s mindblowingly ignorant.