SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Massive Spanner

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All seems very reasonable to me. Delta variant is a curve ball and the way our vaccine roll-out panned out we’ve ended up giving almost exclusively AZ to 60-69 year olds, who are a few weeks away from getting their second dose and, hence, remain vulnerable (vaccination stats overall are very encouraging though).


I’m fully in agreement with him about “not going back”. Much better to delay the next stage of reopening then crack on and end up with a surge that forces us to roll back. Sick people aside it would be a devastating blow to the morale of the nation if we went down that path. Absolutely shite state of affairs for people in the hospitality industry but it is what it is.
Didn't know that about the 60-69's but that makes sense actually, seeing as my mother is only getting her 2nd today.

It's weird seeing the HSE actually be capable at something.

Side note, it really doesn't help Michael that he always crosses his hands like that and looks like Mr Burns.
 

Bosws87

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I've never seen someone that's so obviously out of their depth, in every interview or tv appearance.

You only need to watch one interview to see he's absolutely clueless, i'm amazed the British public keep putting up with this shite.
 

Vidyoyo

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I've never seen someone that's so obviously out of their depth, in every interview or tv appearance.

You only need to watch one interview to see he's absolutely clueless, i'm amazed the British public keep putting up with this shite.
I'm half convinced the British public like people who seem out of depth and are scared of people who actually know what they're doing
 

bsCallout

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If you talk about it on YouTube they take down your video.
Why?

Edit: I've just checked and there are plenty of videos with it in their title. So it's not a case of talk about it and it'll be taken down. Is this one of those conspiracy things where they shout we're being 'censored' whilst being everywhere?
 

Bosws87

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Why?

Edit: I've just checked and there are plenty of videos with it in their title. So it's not a case of talk about it and it'll be taken down. Is this one of those conspiracy things where they shout we're being 'censored' whilst being everywhere?
The latest Rogan podcast is all about it, i haven't looked into it but the way the guy goes on about Ivermetcin it sounds far too good to be true it solves everything.

He's trying to paint a picture that it's not being used and ignored because there is no money to be made from it as its a generic drug that is no longer patented.

How true any of this is i have no idea.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Why?

Edit: I've just checked and there are plenty of videos with it in their title. So it's not a case of talk about it and it'll be taken down. Is this one of those conspiracy things where they shout we're being 'censored' whilst being everywhere?
Correct.

The whole Ivermectin hysteria is such bullshit. There have been plenty of other off-patent drugs extensively tested against COVID.
 

Beans

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Why?

Edit: I've just checked and there are plenty of videos with it in their title. So it's not a case of talk about it and it'll be taken down. Is this one of those conspiracy things where they shout we're being 'censored' whilst being everywhere?
YouTube have been taking down videos because the FDA has not recommended the drug. There was a lot of concern about misinformation, it seems. I'm glad to hear that it can he talked about now. The channel Peak Prosperity, one of the two most popular channels on YouTube for Covid news and analysis along with MedCram, had videos removed that covered the data coming back in regards to it.

Here's an article about some of the censorship.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/youtube-cancels-the-u-s-senate-11612288061

This source seems pretty good too.

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/why-has-ivermectin-become-a-dirty-7bd

@Pogue Mahone
 
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DFreshKing

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Quality control
The latest Rogan podcast is all about it, i haven't looked into it but the way the guy goes on about Ivermetcin it sounds far too good to be true it solves everything.

He's trying to paint a picture that it's not being used and ignored because there is no money to be made from it as its a generic drug that is no longer patented.

How true any of this is i have no idea.
Considering money and people I would say that is a very good bet. We are getting some very good data and peer reviewed analysis coming through now so I would expect some clearer answers soon. I'm glad we are trailing in the UK. A worrying peer reviewed study has come out today that says for every 3 lives saved by the vaccine 2 vaccine deaths are caused so there is no silver bullet. Someone alluded above we have to live with acceptable deaths and that includes from treatments as well as the virus it seems.
 

Irwin99

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If there are possible any more lockdowns in the future there'll be more people citing yet another breach of lockdown rules by a government official as a reason not to give a feck.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Considering money and people I would say that is a very good bet. We are getting some very good data and peer reviewed analysis coming through now so I would expect some clearer answers soon. I'm glad we are trailing in the UK. A worrying peer reviewed study has come out today that says for every 3 lives saved by the vaccine 2 vaccine deaths are caused so there is no silver bullet. Someone alluded above we have to live with acceptable deaths and that includes from treatments as well as the virus it seems.
Please share. Sounds like complete bullshit.
 

Mickeza

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Considering money and people I would say that is a very good bet. We are getting some very good data and peer reviewed analysis coming through now so I would expect some clearer answers soon. I'm glad we are trailing in the UK. A worrying peer reviewed study has come out today that says for every 3 lives saved by the vaccine 2 vaccine deaths are caused so there is no silver bullet. Someone alluded above we have to live with acceptable deaths and that includes from treatments as well as the virus it seems.
Link? 14,000 lives are estimated to have been saved so far via vaccination in the U.K. alone. By that maths you’re saying around 9k have died from vaccination…
 

Tarrou

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I've just been in the UK for a few weeks and recently returned to Australia, so I'm in the quarantine hotel. I just received a message from the NHS App to self isolate for two days because I've been in contact with someone with Covid. That seems strange, why only two days does that make sense to anyone?
 

F-Red

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I've just been in the UK for a few weeks and recently returned to Australia, so I'm in the quarantine hotel. I just received a message from the NHS App to self isolate for two days because I've been in contact with someone with Covid. That seems strange, why only two days does that make sense to anyone?
Probably someone you have been in contact with recently has got a positive case confirmed today.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I've just been in the UK for a few weeks and recently returned to Australia, so I'm in the quarantine hotel. I just received a message from the NHS App to self isolate for two days because I've been in contact with someone with Covid. That seems strange, why only two days does that make sense to anyone?
Probably the contact was 8 days ago?
 

africanspur

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I've just been in the UK for a few weeks and recently returned to Australia, so I'm in the quarantine hotel. I just received a message from the NHS App to self isolate for two days because I've been in contact with someone with Covid. That seems strange, why only two days does that make sense to anyone?

Probably to do with the day said exposure is supposed to have happened?

It it was 8 days ago, only 2 days left of the isolation period.
 

Snowjoe

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I've just been in the UK for a few weeks and recently returned to Australia, so I'm in the quarantine hotel. I just received a message from the NHS App to self isolate for two days because I've been in contact with someone with Covid. That seems strange, why only two days does that make sense to anyone?
Does it say when the contact occurred? It might be that it’s taken a while to get a positive result so by the time they alerted you there’s only 2 days of your isolation period left
 

Tarrou

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Does it say when the contact occurred? It might be that it’s taken a while to get a positive result so by the time they alerted you there’s only 2 days of your isolation period left
nah, it's surprisingly sparse of information - doesn't even tell me where it was. But yes I think you are correct, thanks
 

Massive Spanner

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Mickeza

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Deepthroating information to Howard Nurse.
“the NNTV to prevent one death is between 9000 and 50,000”

42m have had one dose - 14,000 and rising lives saved. That is equal to an NNTV of 3,000. But it will continue to grow as time passes - even if no more vaccinations are done - it isn’t fixed. Also depends on COVID prevalence - which without vaccines and restrictions would be through the roof. It also doesn’t factor in hospitalisations - of which 42,000 have been avoided - not sure why they cite serious side effects but not COVID hospitalisation. 4 deaths per 100k sounds very high too…

That’s just me - not in any way scientific - struggles to use an excel pivot - doing back of a fag packet maths in 2 minutes…so I do question who peer reviewed it.
 

DFreshKing

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Total and utter horseshit. Do you know how stupid this logic actually is?
It's not my logic but What expertise do you have over these scientists? I going to hazard a guess that the authors of this study are eminently more qualified that Massive Spanner off redcafe or anyone else on here for that matter. Also the peer review seems to have been accepted but like I said this is not my study.
 

DFreshKing

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“the NNTV to prevent one death is between 9000 and 50,000”

42m have had one dose - 14,000 and rising lives saved. That is equal to an NNTV of 3,000. But it will continue to grow as time passes - even if no more vaccinations are done - it isn’t fixed. Also depends on COVID prevalence - which without vaccines and restrictions would be through the roof. It also doesn’t factor in hospitalisations - of which 42,000 have been avoided - not sure why they cite serious side effects but not COVID hospitalisation. 4 deaths per 100k sounds very high too…

That’s just me - not in any way scientific - struggles to use an excel pivot - doing back of a fag packet maths in 2 minutes…so I do question who peer reviewed it.
Well the fact that it's just you and not in anyway scientific is probably why I would likely take the peer reviewed scientific study done and peer reviewed by scientists but that's just me. Who made up the 14,000 lives saved and what data is that based on?
 

bsCallout

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YouTube have been taking down videos because the FDA has not recommended the drug. There was a lot of concern about misinformation, it seems. I'm glad to hear that it can he talked about now. The channel Peak Prosperity, one of the two most popular channels on YouTube for Covid news and analysis along with MedCram, had videos removed that covered the data coming back in regards to it.

Here's an article about some of the censorship.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/youtube-cancels-the-u-s-senate-11612288061

This source seems pretty good too.

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/why-has-ivermectin-become-a-dirty-7bd

@Pogue Mahone
The first one from the WSJ is from the same bloke that invited the Doctor to the Senate and doesn't seem a great character. He has his angle.

The second article is well written though and it does seem the platforms have jumped on the word but they have been clear that it is because these people are telling the public to use a drug not yet proven, even if the evidence is positive so far. Very similar to Hydroxycloroquine.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I’ve read the study and it looks to me as though they haven’t differentiated between deaths caused by the vaccine from deaths from any cause after being vaccinated. Strictly speaking, being run over by a bus after being vaccinated is a reportable serious adverse event. Tells us feck all about the risks of taking the vaccine though.

Even taking that massive liberty, they still conclude an overall net benefit to vaccination (which doesn't get mentioned in the abstract, funnily enough).

Using Cunningham’s estimate of NNTV = 12,300, which stems from a non-peer reviewed comment, we arrived at eight deaths prevented per 100,000 vaccinations and, in the best case, 33 deaths prevented by 100,000 vaccinations. Thus, in the optimum case, we risk four deaths to prevent 33 deaths, a risk–benefit ratio of 1:8. The risk–benefit ratio in terms of deaths prevented and deaths incurred thus ranges from 2:3 to 1:8
As @Mickeza said, the most egregiously misleading way this data is presented is the idea that you can judge the success of the vaccination program simply by looking at NNTV when we know that the consequences of a completely uncontrolled surge has such a severe impact in addition to those who die from covid (hospitals running out of staff or oxygen, the economic and societal harm of prolonged lockdown etc etc etc)
 
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Sky1981

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We've had our worst spikes due to the Eid homecoming tradition.

BOR (Bed occupancy Rate) is above 90% in most big cities, people are being treated in hallways and some in parking lot.

Things looks quite serious.

You stay save eh @Kopral Jono

I'ma vaccine hunting tomorrow :( :nervous:
 

swooshboy

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I’ve read the study and it looks to me as though they haven’t differentiated between deaths caused by the vaccine from deaths from any cause after being vaccinated. Strictly speaking, being run over by a bus after being vaccinated is a reportable serious adverse event. Tells us feck all about the risks of taking the vaccine though.

Even taking that massive liberty, they still conclude an overall net benefit to vaccination (which doesn't get mentioned in the abstract, funnily enough).
Agreed – and you can apply this to all the figures they give us – the daily number of deaths are people who died and had a positive test within 28 days of their death. No idea how many are actually caused by Covid.
 

Mark Pawelek

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Correct.

The whole Ivermectin hysteria is such bullshit. There have been plenty of other off-patent drugs extensively tested against COVID.
Any other off-patent drugs extensively banned, demonized and generally dissed for use in treating COVID, apart from Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine?

Bloody Trump! - if he hadn't mentioned Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine the hysteria may never have happened.
 

F-Red

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It's not my logic but What expertise do you have over these scientists? I going to hazard a guess that the authors of this study are eminently more qualified that Massive Spanner off redcafe or anyone else on here for that matter. Also the peer review seems to have been accepted but like I said this is not my study.
I don't think they have much experience in immunisation or epidemiology, so it's far fetched to call them experts in those fields.

Dr. Harald Walach
Harald Walach, PhD, is a professor at Poznan University of the Medical Sciences in Poznan, Pediatric Hospital, Poland and a visiting professor at Witten/Herdecke University’s Department of Psychology. He is a health researcher with approximately 200 peer-reviewed papers to his name and broad expertise in various methods of clinical, experimental, and secondary research.

Dr. Rainer Klement
Rainer J. Klement is a medical physicist with ample experience in data analysis and statistics. He is based at the Radiation Oncology Department of Leopoldina Hospital in Schweinfurt, Germany. He is active in medical modeling and evaluating the effect of ketogenic diets in oncology patients.

Wouter Aukema
Independent Data and Pattern Scientist