Squad Size - Next Season and Beyond

Walrus

Oppressed White Male
Joined
Aug 25, 2008
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Obviously it is silly season and so the transfer rumour mill is in full flow. Clearly we know there are a bunch of players we are trying to ship out and some positions we want to strengthen. A lesser talked about point however, is the fact that due to having no European football, we will have substantially fewer games next season, which should arguably translate to a smaller squad size.

If you look at some of the most successful "smaller" sides in the PL in the last 5-10 years, it has often been a case of them having a relatively settled XI and not too much rotation. When you are only playing once a week, you dont really need to rotate at all except due to injuries. Clearly, injuries are always a problem and a potential risk, but not one in my opinion that would justify stacking the squad with often-expensive rotation options and bench warmers. Ultimately a settled core of 11 starts plus about 5 options, plus a handful of youngsters who can fill in, is all we should really need.

This isnt a post about who that starting XI should and shouldnt be, but rather thinking about a bit of forward planning. The ambition and goal this season must be to get back into Europe, as well as good cup runs. Lets assume that we achieve that - it means that in the 26/27 season we would be back to needing a bigger squad again. Effectively - if all goes well - we have a single season now to get our first XI in order and playing well, and then will need to add further strength in depth in a year's time.

How do we do this? Assuming we want to avoid a mad rush for players next year, I think exploring the loan market is the way. Fringe players like Mainoo, Collyer, Amass.... maybe even Hojlund and Mount - these are all players that would either benefit from a year of regular football, and/or could do a job elsewhere. If we were able to loan out some of these for respectable loan fees then it would help us financially, and give us a returning cadre of players in a years time to enlarge the squad ready for European competition. Not to mention that a year with regular football would probably do wonders for them (thinking of the youngsters). Meanwhile, with only one game per week, the likes of Casemiro, Martinez and Shaw could feasibly be utilised regularly this season hopefully with fewer fitness issues.

My view is that whilst we have some players who clearly need to leave on permanent deals, we have another lot of youngsters and/or squad players who arent likely to get much gametime in the season to come, but who we could suddenly find ourselves in need of again if we do get back into Europe. We should be looking to enter next season with a lean, trimmed down squad and not worrying about rotation too much - which will help our chances in the league to this end.
 
So, we have at least 40 games next season as a minimum. That could go up to roughly 52-55, depending how we perform in the cups.

3 GKs - not much rotation anyways in that position.
6 CBs - 2 of which are regularly out for lengthy periods. So I wouldn't trim here.
6 FBs - at least 1 of whom we want to sell, 1 that is a regular in the infirmary. I doubt we want to go to only 4 players here as well.
7 CMs/AMs - at least 1 of whom we want to sell, 1 that is another regular in the infirmary, and possibly Mbuemo. For 3 positions. Maybe there's a chance the youngsters will go on loan, but I'm not sure who else would go on a loan at this stage of their careers.
7 FWs - And we want to move 4 of them out, so trimming is almost done here, bar any new arrivals.

I feel we're in a good position, if we can offload Garnacho, Antony, Rashford and Sancho.
 
I believe the maximum number of games we can play is 51.

38 league games
6 FA Cup games (third round through final)
7 League Cup games (second round through final, with the semi being played over two legs)
 
I believe the maximum number of games we can play is 51.

38 league games
6 FA Cup games (third round through final)
7 League Cup games (second round through final, with the semi being played over two legs)
My bad, you are entirely correct, sir. Only 51 games if we're good enough.
 
The problem with looking to carry a smaller squad is that we're pretty much guaranteed to have an injury crisis every season, so we should be planning ahead for that stretch where we inevitably have 5 or more important players all out at the same time.
 
The problem with looking to carry a smaller squad is that we're pretty much guaranteed to have an injury crisis every season, so we should be planning ahead for that stretch where we inevitably have 5 or more important players all out at the same time.

Or we trust some of the U21s should that happen.
 
Numbers wise, for a season like next year, I would want to carry the following:

3 Goalkeepers - 2 competing number 1s, and either a homegrown veteran or youngster.
6 Center backs - 4 competing for 3 starting spots, 1 definite squad player, 1 development player.
5 Center midfielders - 3 competing for 2 starting spots, 1 squad player, 1 development player.
4 "Wing backs" - 3 competing for 2 starting spots, 1 development player.
5 Inside Forwards - 3 competing for 2 starting spots, 1 squad player, 1 development player
3 Strikers - 2 competing for 1 starting spot, 1 development player

That's 26 players of which 6 are development players i.e. from the academy or young signings. 3 are rotational players, leaving 17 bonafide starting quality players.

With the current squad it would be something like this:

GK - Onana
GK - New competing #1

Gk - Heaton

CB - Yoro
CB - De Ligt
CB - Heaven

CB - Maguire
CB - Mazroui
CB - Martinez

WB - Dorgu
WB - Amad
WB - Dalot

WB - Amass

CM - Fernandes
CM - Casemiro
CM - Ugarte
CM - Mainoo

CM - Collyer

AM - Cunha
AM - Mbeumo
AM - Mount

AM - Academy Player

CF - New Striker
CF - Zirkzee

CF - Chido Obi

I have put the first team starters competing for spots in bold, the squad players in regular font, and the development spots in italics. But there are a number of issues:

1. Outgoings: To get to this squad it assumes we can move on all of the following in some capacity: Bayindir, Shaw, Malacia, Garnacho, Sancho, Antony, Rashford, and Hojlund. Which is a big ask, but I think necessary.
2. New Keeper : We would need to bring in a competing starting keeper. Either Onana or Bayindir could go.
3. Striker : A new starting striker.
4. CB Makeup : Martinez is taking up the development spot in defence. I'd start Heaven over him every day of the week at this point. And given the choice, I would move Martinez on and bring in a young developmental CB or promote a player from the academy. A starting back three of Yoro, De Ligt and Heaven, with Maguire and Mazroui for rotation, is plenty. Problem is, Martinez is injured long term and we aren't going to be able to sell him. So we'll pay first team wages for a player who is in reality 6th choice. Not great but unavoidable.
5. CM Makeup : The midfield should be built around a combo of Fernandes, Mainoo and Ugarte. I would want to bring in a top box to box CM if I could, Like Ederson, but we would have to shift out Casemiro. I like Cas, think he's been pretty good and brings a lot to the table, but there aren't enough games this season and his wages are enormous. I'd trim the squad by moving him on. Bruno can play CM and AM, so is versatile, which helps us carry one less player in the AM position.
6. AM Makeup : Cunha, Mbeumo and Mount is plenty for the AM position, but does assume Mount will be available for a good chunk of the games. Having Bruno as an additional 10, somewhat covers for that risk. The fourth spot I would give to various academy prospects.
7. CF Makeup : We need a new CF. Zirzkee is plenty good enough as the alternative option. The final spot has to go to Chido Obi.
8. WB Makeup : I like our starting wingback options in Amad and Dorgu, but after that we go to Dalot and Amass. Both defenders by trade, which isn't right. I would actually sell Dalot as we could get a really good price for him, and then reinvest the money in a quality wide midfielder/wing back, who has a much stronger attacking profile. More like a winger than a full back.

We really need to run a much smaller squad this year.

Dream Scenario:

In a dream scenario - so not realistic at all really, and only loosely tethered to reality - I would have the following ingoings and outgoings and set up the squad as follows....

Out (13): Bayindir, Shaw, Malacia, Martinez, Maguire, Dalot, Fernandes, Casemiro, Sancho, Rashford, Anthony, Garnacho, Hojlund
In (7): Costa, Branthwaite, Ederson, Jashari, Malick Fofana, Mbeumo, Gyokeres

Final Squad:

GK - Diego Costa
GK - Andre Onana (Mates with Mbeumo)
GK - Tom Heaton (HG)

CB - Leny Yoro
CB - Ayden Heaven
CB - Mathias De Ligt
CB - Jarrad Branthwaite (Good for all 3 CB roles)
CB - Noussair Mazroui (Can also play RWB)
CB - Tyler Fredricson / Godwill Kukonki

WB - Amad Diallo (Cover at AM)
WB - Patrick Dorgu
WB - Malick Fofana (Can play as a winger or WB, has the work ethic, and good off both feet. Cover at AM).
WB - Harry Amass / Jaydon Kamason

CM - Kobbie Mainoo
CM - Manuel Ugarte
CM - Ederson (Peak age B2B CM that can do everything)
CM - Ardon Jashari (Young playmaking talent, very high ceiling, affordable)
CM - Toby Collyer

AM - Matheus Cunha
AM - Bryan Mbeumo
AM - Mason Mount
AM - Best performing academy player

CF - Viktor Gyokeres
CF - Joshua Zirkzee
CF - Chido Obi-Martin

This has every position covered, especially with several players able to perform in mulitple roles, giving you versatility. It shifts out most of the higher earners, brings in several players in or near their peak, and gives you a very lean squad for the year. Assuming you get into Europe the following season, you then add maybe 3 more bonafide first team players, and suddenly you have a proper squad.
 
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I'm sure that relying heavily on children to play regularly in the Premier League would work out really well for us

Suppose we had to play Tyler Fredericson for 7 or 8 games in a back 3, do you think it would define the season? Sure if we still can't score for shit it might, but if that's the case then some heads need to roll and it won't be the U21s that have let us down.
 
Numbers wise, for a season like next year, I would want to carry the following:

3 Goalkeepers - 2 competing number 1s, and either a homegrown veteran or youngster.
6 Center backs - 4 competing for 3 starting spots, 1 definite squad player, 1 development player.
5 Center midfielders - 3 competing for 2 starting spots, 1 squad player, 1 development player.
4 "Wing backs" - 3 competing for 2 starting spots, 1 development player.
5 Inside Forwards - 3 competing for 2 starting spots, 1 squad player, 1 development player
3 Strikers - 2 competing for 1 starting spot, 1 development player

That's 26 players of which 6 are development players i.e. from the academy or young signings. 3 are rotational players, leaving 17 bonafide starting quality players.

With the current squad it would be something like this:

GK - Onana
GK - New competing #1

Gk - Heaton

CB - Yoro
CB - De Ligt
CB - Heaven

CB - Maguire
CB - Mazroui
CB - Martinez

WB - Dorgu
WB - Amad
WB - Dalot

WB - Amass

CM - Fernandes
CM - Casemiro
CM - Ugarte
CM - Mainoo

CM - Collyer

AM - Cunha
AM - Mbeumo
AM - Mount

AM - Academy Player

CF - New Striker
CF - Zirkzee

CF - Chido Obi

I have put the first team starters competing for spots in bold, the squad players in regular font, and the development spots in italics. But there are a number of issues:

1. Outgoings: To get to this squad it assumes we can move on all of the following in some capacity: Bayindir, Shaw, Malacia, Garnacho, Sancho, Antony, Rashford, and Hojlund. Which is a big ask, but I think necessary.
2. New Keeper : We would need to bring in a competing starting keeper. Either Onana or Bayindir could go.
3. Striker : A new starting striker.
4. CB Makeup : Martinez is taking up the development spot in defence. I'd start Heaven over him every day of the week at this point. And given the choice, I would move Martinez on and bring in a young developmental CB or promote a player from the academy. A starting back three of Yoro, De Ligt and Heaven, with Maguire and Mazroui for rotation, is plenty. Problem is, Martinez is injured long term and we aren't going to be able to sell him. So we'll pay first team wages for a player who is in reality 6th choice. Not great but unavoidable.
5. CM Makeup : The midfield should be built around a combo of Fernandes, Mainoo and Ugarte. I would want to bring in a top box to box CM if I could, Like Ederson, but we would have to shift out Casemiro. I like Cas, think he's been pretty good and brings a lot to the table, but there aren't enough games this season and his wages are enormous. I'd trim the squad by moving him on. Bruno can play CM and AM, so is versatile, which helps us carry one less player in the AM position.
6. AM Makeup : Cunha, Mbeumo and Mount is plenty for the AM position, but does assume Mount will be available for a good chunk of the games. Having Bruno as an additional 10, somewhat covers for that risk. The fourth spot I would give to various academy prospects.
7. CF Makeup : We need a new CF. Zirzkee is plenty good enough as the alternative option. The final spot has to go to Chido Obi.
8. WB Makeup : I like our starting wingback options in Amad and Dorgu, but after that we go to Dalot and Amass. Both defenders by trade, which isn't right. I would actually sell Dalot as we could get a really good price for him, and then reinvest the money in a quality wide midfielder/wing back, who has a much stronger attacking profile. More like a winger than a full back.

We really need to run a much smaller squad this year.

Dream Scenario:

In a dream scenario - so not realistic at all really, and only loosely tethered to reality - I would have the following ingoings and outgoings and set up the squad as follows....

Out (13): Bayindir, Shaw, Malacia, Martinez, Maguire, Dalot, Fernandes, Casemiro, Sancho, Rashford, Anthony, Garnacho, Hojlund
In (7): Costa, Branthwaite, Ederson, Jashari, Malick Fofana, Mbeumo, Gyokeres

Final Squad:

GK - Diego Costa
GK - Andre Onana (Mates with Mbeumo)
GK - Tom Heaton (HG)

CB - Leny Yoro
CB - Ayden Heaven
CB - Mathias De Ligt
CB - Jarrad Branthwaite (Good for all 3 CB roles)
CB - Noussair Mazroui (Can also play RWB)
CB - Tyler Fredricson / Godwill Kukonki

WB - Amad Diallo (Cover at AM)
WB - Patrick Dorgu
WB - Malick Fofana (Can play as a winger or WB, has the work ethic, and good off both feet. Cover at AM).
WB - Harry Amass / Jaydon Kamason

CM - Kobbie Mainoo
CM - Manuel Ugarte
CM - Ederson (Peak age B2B CM that can do everything)
CM - Ardon Jashari (Young playmaking talent, very high ceiling, affordable)
CM - Toby Collyer

AM - Matheus Cunha
AM - Bryan Mbeumo
AM - Mason Mount
AM - Best performing academy player

CF - Viktor Gyokeres
CF - Joshua Zirkzee
CF - Chido Obi-Martin

This has every position covered, especially with several players able to perform in mulitple roles, giving you versatility. It shifts out most of the higher earners, brings in several players in or near their peak, and gives you a very lean squad for the year. Assuming you get into Europe the following season, you then add maybe 3 more bonafide first team players, and suddenly you have a proper squad.
Still somewhat concerned with the midfield, but otherwise this looks like a very solid plan and a squad that has a lot of upside. Will not happen in 1 summer though. With those players you're looking at a gross outlay of close to £400m on top of what we've already committed to Cunha. The ship for a big fee for Bruno seems to have sailed, so this is going to take longer than a summer.
 
Exactly, you can't win anything with kids, it's proven.

Is that what it's down to, now? Hoping we once again experience the statistical anomaly of our academy producing four players with generational talent all at the same time?