The 40 000 minute benchmark

[andersj]

When Man Utd signed Alexis Sanchez and most fans were extatic about getting him from under the nose of Man City someone sent me a tweet from a guy on Twitter voicing concern about the amount of mileage in Sanchez’ legs.

If I remember correctly (cant find his tweet) he claimed that footballers who need energy and pace often decline heavily from approx. 40 000 min and get alot more prone to injury. I did not give it that much consideration at the time, but considered it to be an interesting angle.

But when we signed Bruno Fernandes I saw another tweet from the same guy about this topic. This time more positive. His graph illustrates that Eriksen would be a player he, due to the amount of minutes, would consider a risk. I also find it interesting to see Ozil in this overview as he obviously peaked a few years ago.

Obviously there will be exceptions to the rule. Players have different natural fitness, dedication or talent (Messi and Ronaldo). We have also seen players like Giggs and Scholes change their style to adopt to a physical decline. So, no rule/guideline without exceptions.

I tried looking into when a few good players have had a steep decline. It is not a very accurate science since the start of a decline could be difficult to pinpoint. It is easier if there is a specific event in a carrier. I had a look at Torres at the time of his move to Chelsea, but he was not at more than 33-34 000 minutes or so. For Shevchenko, on the other hand, it was surprisingly accurate. He moved to Chelsea close to the 40 000 minute mark.

You could also argue that van Persie and Rooney started their decline around a similar mark (40 000 min, +- 10 %). It
will be interesting to keep an eye on Aubameyang and Willian next season. (Both are looking for a new contract btw.)

While it is not a blueprint I think it could be a useful tool for clubs used in combination with form and injuries.

Take Cavani as an example. He has played 42 000 minutes of professional football. He has been very injury prone this season and not very good either. Would it make sense to sign him at this point? In my opinion, that sounds risky considering minutes, age, form, injuries and salary demand. Certainly considering what used to be his strenghts (pace and energy among them).

 

[Synco]

Interesting angle, and something like that seems reasonable at first sight. But it would need pretty broad research to see if that correlation really is so common.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

Good stuff and makes sense although I'd love to see Giggs' minute trajectory as his career was pretty much a tale of two halves with a high, a dip in the mid 00s and then a late career peak again.

This could have implications for Rashford.

 

[Skills]

I'm surprised Robin van Persie ever managed 40000 minutes considering how much he was injured.

Good news is that we've still got a good 30k minutes of Phil Jones left

 

[OleBoiii]

The more data we gather, the more accurately we'll be able to predict a player's future. They've already started to decide who makes the cut at youth levels in many different sports. It's becoming easier and easier to predict who has a chance to become pro and who doesn't. I believe some baseball clubs can determine it already when looking at elite 13-14 year olds.

What's stopping us from having a similar approach when it comes to transfers? I reckon in 10-20 years there will be an industry standard that looks at a multitude of data points(minutes played, age, league, position), and combine it with a regular fitness test and maybe a psychological test. The result of these will possibly predict your future with a high accuracy, and thus it will be easier to decide on a transfer fee. At least for players aged 26 and older.

 

[Synco]

The main idea, that a player who starts his full-on pro career with 17/18 will burn out earlier is pretty obvious, imo. (Not that there'll be no exceptions.)

For example, Toni Kroos said he plans on a relatively early retirement, because he has played so much since his teens.

 

[thepolice123]

Would love to see the stats for Benzema, Hazard, Suarez, Aguero, Modric, Ramos, Pique. Surely all of them must have played well beyond the 40,000 mark?

 

[Gio]

It's a useful marker, but could be a symptom of physical decline rather than a cause. For every Sanchez or Eriksen, there will be similar examples of players who've continued to maintain a physical peak. Someone like Frank Lampard who would have passed the 40k mark during 2004/05 and was probably around 70k or so before declining. Equally what players do on a week-to-week basis in training will be hugely influential in how they enhance or maintain their physical capacities over the long term. There are a lot of variables that will dictate what accelerates decline.

 

[11101]

I've seen this said before but in years. Players generally have about 12-13 years at the very top level. Players who were regulars in the first team at 17 will decline around 30, whereas players who started later can go well into their 30s. Obviously there are exceptions, particularly for the very best players, but it does hold true when you think about the average tier 1 footballer.

 

[Impulse]

For anybody wondering, Ronaldo has played 81000 minutes.

 

[Snow]

Would love to see the stats for Benzema, Hazard, Suarez, Aguero, Modric, Ramos, Pique. Surely all of them must have played well beyond the 40,000 mark?

40k minutes is about 440 full games. They're all well above it at club level only, not counting international games, youth international games and other youth/reserve matches or friendlies.

32 isn't as old as it was in 1995. Different level of fitness and conditioning. It's just about how you take care of yourself, how much injuries affect your longevity and how dedicated you are to keep going, i.e. willing to play through minor injuries and niggles and general tiredness that all athletes are trained to play through.

You don't need to look at the minutes played to guess if signing an expensive player at 30 is a bad idea or not.

@andersj Cavani has played ~51k minutes competitively at a professional level. 112 caps, most of them the full 90.

 

[padr81]

Thats why we give Foden 10 minutes a season. 4000 seasons of the greatest english talent incoming.

 

[adexkola]

Thats why we give Foden 10 minutes a season. 4000 seasons of the greatest english talent incoming.

 

[adexkola]

Needs more substantial analysis to confirm

Also, how do you vet performance? Goals? Distance run?

 

[Brightonian]

The more data we gather, the more accurately we'll be able to predict a player's future. They've already started to decide who makes the cut at youth levels in many different sports. It's becoming easier and easier to predict who has a chance to become pro and who doesn't. I believe some baseball clubs can determine it already when looking at elite 13-14 year olds.

What's stopping us from having a similar approach when it comes to transfers? I reckon in 10-20 years there will be an industry standard that looks at a multitude of data points(minutes played, age, league, position), and combine it with a regular fitness test and maybe a psychological test. The result of these will possibly predict your future with a high accuracy, and thus it will be easier to decide on a transfer fee. At least for players aged 26 and older.

Baseball is massively more statistically determinable than football. It is of course theoretically possible, even you could arguable inevitable. But we are nowhere near the analytical sophistication to make those kinds of calls about a football player with a data-led approach yet. I guess the 20-year end of your timescale might be realistic, but that far in the future who really knows? Maybe the computer we design to make that call will have taken over and will not allow its meatslaves to pursue organised sports any more.

 

[adexkola]

Baseball is massively more statistically determinable than football. It is of course theoretically possible, even you could arguable inevitable. But we are nowhere near the analytical sophistication to make those kinds of calls about a football player with a data-led approach yet. I guess the 20-year end of your timescale might be realistic, but that far in the future who really knows? Maybe the computer we design to make that call will have taken over and will not allow its meatslaves to pursue organised sports any more.

We've put men on the moon, split the atom, made shit fly... I'm sure we have the capabilities to make it happen.

And by we've I mean 'murica

 

[Brightonian]

We've put men on the moon, split the atom, made shit fly... I'm sure we have the capabilities to make it happen.

We also have yet to explore 80% of the oceans, don't know for sure why human beings sleep, and never found Madeleine McCann, so...

 

[acnumber9]

Measuring it in minutes played is balls. It’s not like a player who doesn’t break into the first team until they’re 20 isn’t playing football at youth level.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Enough exceptions to the premise, such as to make it irrelevant.