Film The death of cinema?

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

There will always be studios making films, that end up getting heavily advertised everywhere, creating the need to watch the newest big hit film on the big screen. Going to the cinema will always be a good way for a couple or family to get out the house and do something, that'll never change. Hypothetically If Cineworld and Vue go bankrupt and fold, that opens a big opportunity for an up and coming cinema company to take over the market share when this is all over, and there'll always be that company waiting to fill in.

I agree that context will always be made, but disagree that there will always be a demand for it to be seen on a big screen.

I love the cinema, and regularly go. But if we have cinemas closed again, it could (and I think will) permanently change the habits of a large proportion of the audience.

I think its naive to think in 12 months time we will have the same demand from people to go to the cinema as we had before this.

I’m certain we will see a reduction in the number of cinemas operating.

 

[sullydnl]

Cinema offers an experience and atmosphere that streaming from home never will. There may well be benefits to the latter but they're not the same thing.

I fundamentally don't see people losing that desire for communal experience to such a degree that cinema dies. Once people feel entirely confident and free in attending cinemas, they will wish to do so. And if that desire for communal experience is lost then it's a problem that will extend far beyond the film industry

The problem is a more industrial one. The more the existing structures dissapear amidst Covid the more difficult it will be for Cinemas to bounce back. It isn't as simple as someone else coming along immediately to replace them.

 

[acnumber9]

I agree that context will always be made, but disagree that there will always be a demand for it to be seen on a big screen.

I love the cinema, and regularly go. But if we have cinemas closed again, it could (and I think will) permanently change the habits of a large proportion of the audience.

I think its naive to think in 12 months time we will have the same demand from people to go to the cinema as we had before this.

I’m certain we will see a reduction in the number of cinemas operating.

Surely the demand for people who love going to the cinema will increase having been deprived of it for so long? It’s the quality of films that is the biggest concern for the future of cinema.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

Surely the demand for people who love going to the cinema will increase having been deprived of it for so long? It’s the quality of films that is the biggest concern for the future of cinema.

It’s the going out, being in the vicinity of other people that’s the issue. For those who are big cinema fans, they will still go.

But a lot of the casual fans will think twice, and see a lot of them never returning. These are the people that come out for the big films.

if you were 65+ would you ever go to the cinema again?

I can’t see anyway that the demand will ever be the same.

 

[acnumber9]

It’s the going out, being in the vicinity of other people that’s the issue. For those who are big cinema fans, they will still go.

But a lot of the casual fans will think twice, and see a lot of them never returning. These are the people that come out for the big films.

if you were 65+ would you ever go to the cinema again?

I can’t see anyway that the demand will ever be the same.

Well obviously we’re talking in a best case scenario and the virus is either gone or manageable but people won’t live their entire lives in fear forever regardless of what happens.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

Well obviously we’re talking in a best case scenario and the virus is either gone or manageable but people won’t live their entire lives in fear forever regardless of what happens.

But it causes people to change habits, and it’s very difficult to change them back.

Unfortunately I think some people will live the rest of their lives in fear or with trepidation. certainly if you are in a high risk group or of a certain age.

I hope it’s not many, but time will tell.

 

[acnumber9]

But it causes people to change habits, and it’s very difficult to change them back.

Unfortunately I think some people will live the rest of their lives in fear or with trepidation. certainly if you are in a high risk group or of a certain age.

I hope it’s not many, but time will tell.

It’s only a theory but I don’t think older people will put their entire lives on hold because they might die. They live with that threat constantly anyway. Short term, absolutely. But I think we’ve already seen that we’re near the limit of how long they’ll do that. Things like going to the cinema they could probably live without but how big a percentage of cinema goers are over 65 anyway?

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

It’s only a theory but I don’t think older people will put their entire lives on hold because they might die. They live with that threat constantly anyway. Short term, absolutely. But I think we’ve already seen that we’re near the limit of how long they’ll do that. Things like going to the cinema they could probably live without but how big a percentage of cinema goers are over 65 anyway?

ultimately we don’t know and will have to see.

i would love to be proved wrong, but as I said I think people’s habits will change and the demand to go to the cinema will permanently decrease, as it will be replaced with other activities, and ways of consuming content, this will lead to the closure of cinemas.

I think it’s inevitable.

 

[dumbo]

Arts funding has been devastated by the crisis. Disney are still rich and can throw money at blockbuster entertainment but the middle budget films set for cinematic release will surely suffer. If the independent studios and arts council funded projects are having to deal with reduced box office returns as a result of closures or reduced capacity then that'll knock on. Netflix will be there opportunistically sweep up some of the rubble but I can't see it ever being like it was before.

 

[dumbo]

Wikipedia even have a page:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_cinema

 

[Jev]

I don't have an 80 inch TV and surround sound, but i'm not convinced I really need it for most movies. Every now and then something like Star Wars comes out which gains a lot from being seen on the big screen, but for most movies? Id be totally fine watching it on my perfectly ordinary TV from the comfort of my living room and with supermarket priced snacks.

The biggest issue with a shift to streaming is the greed of movie companies, I am exactly the sort of person who should be paying Disney to watch Mulan at home, but the price they charged was absurd. Little wonder it bombed.

I don't have an 80 inch TV and surround sound, but i'm not convinced I really need it for most movies. Every now and then something like Star Wars comes out which gains a lot from being seen on the big screen, but for most movies? Id be totally fine watching it on my perfectly ordinary TV from the comfort of my living room and with supermarket priced snacks.

The biggest issue with a shift to streaming is the greed of movie companies, I am exactly the sort of person who should be paying Disney to watch Mulan at home, but the price they charged was absurd. Little wonder it bombed.

If you think about how expensive it is to make a movie, and how much you have to pay for a one-month subscription to thousands of quality films on Netflix or Amazon, I don't think the customers are in any position to complain about greed at the moment.

As for Mulan, yeah, 30 dollars was steep but you can invite five people over and share the price, and for Disney it has to cover the price of around four cinema tickets.

As for the opening part of your post, I disagree. There are films that benefit more from the big screen and surround sound than others but all films are better at the cinema. Your smartphone is off, your expectations go up and you're immersed in the movie in a way that, for me, doesn't compare.

 

[Castia]

They’ll always be Cinema whilst they’re making movies. If Cineworld or Odeon don’t reopen somebody else will.

 

[Raoul]

Movies are gradually moving to home theatres imo. People will over time be less inclined to leave their homes to drive somewhere to watch something when they have too many alternatives at home. Studios will eventually adjust by making movies available at home (which will also cut production costs by 50% since studios currently have to pay movie house owners 50% of each ticket).

 

[Jev]

Movies are gradually moving to home theatres imo. People will over time be less inclined to leave their homes to drive somewhere to watch something when they have too many alternatives at home. Studios will eventually adjust by making movies available at home (which will also cut production costs by 50% since studios currently have to pay movie house owners 50% of each ticket).

Are you suggesting it would be financially beneficial to movie studios to cater to streaming and VOD markets rather than cinemas?

 

[Raoul]

Are you suggesting it would be financially beneficial to movie studios to cater to streaming and VOD markets rather than cinemas?

It would definitely cut down on the cost of making a movie since theatre owners take about 50% of the profits, which inflates film budgets accordingly. If studios figure out a secure way to go directly to home theateres, they would do it, because in the age of streaming services, people have far too much to choose from at home that will compel them to drive someplace else to watch something. Everything is being driven by technology, which (imo) means the future will be increasingly tilted further towards consuming content at home.

 

[Tiber]

If you think about how expensive it is to make a movie, and how much you have to pay for a one-month subscription to thousands of quality films on Netflix or Amazon, I don't think the customers are in any position to complain about greed at the moment.

As for Mulan, yeah, 30 dollars was steep but you can invite five people over and share the price, and for Disney it has to cover the price of around four cinema tickets.

As for the opening part of your post, I disagree. There are films that benefit more from the big screen and surround sound than others but all films are better at the cinema. Your smartphone is off, your expectations go up and you're immersed in the movie in a way that, for me, doesn't compare.

Nah, it doesn't make sense that I should have to invite half the street round to justify the cost of streaming a movie. Especially while Disney don't need to give a cinema or even an online store a cut of the money. Charging £20 plus a month of Disney Plus subscription is just greedy from Disney - even if I do have a Netflix account, which feels a bit unrelated imo.

I don't doubt that there will always be a role for cinemas, especially for the movie purists. But many just want to see the movie. Hell I have watched plenty of movies on my phone

 

[Jev]

It would definitely cut down on the cost of making a movie since theatre owners take about 50% of the profits, which inflates film budgets accordingly. If studios figure out a secure way to go directly to home theateres, they would do it, because in the age of streaming services, people have far too much to choose from at home that will compel them to drive someplace else to watch something. Everything is being driven by technology, which (imo) means the future will be increasingly tilted further towards consuming content at home.

Problem is the willingness to pay. People are used to Netflix' pricing and there's very little to suggest they are prepared to pay nearly enough to remotely cover the lost revenue from cinema ticket sales. Without cinemas, movies are fecked.

 

[Jev]

Nah, it doesn't make sense that I should have to invite half the street round to justify the cost of streaming a movie. Especially while Disney don't need to give a cinema or even an online store a cut of the money. Charging £20 plus a month of Disney Plus subscription is just greedy from Disney - even if I do have a Netflix account, which feels a bit unrelated imo.

I don't doubt that there will always be a role for cinemas, especially for the movie purists. But many just want to see the movie. Hell I have watched plenty of movies on my phone

I understand that it can seem unfair if you're watching it alone but Disney's main audience is families. They would have been expecting three or four tickets sold per buyer. Of course it wouldn't be feasible if that same family could all watch Mulan for less than the price of one cinema ticket.

As for the second paragraph of your post: Heresy

 

[Raoul]

Problem is the willingness to pay. People are used to Netflix' pricing and there's very little to suggest they are prepared to pay nearly enough to remotely cover the lost revenue from cinema ticket sales. Without cinemas, movies are fecked.

Streaming services are already making movies now, so it wouldn't be a leap for them to gradually subsume the roles of studios. Netflix's budget this year is now above 17b (up from 15b last year) and is projected to reach 26b by 2028, so they are going to be calling the shots on how to distribute content (including movies). The pricing would probably remain the same, and anyone interested in watching the latest big budget movie would simply rent it as an add on to the monthly fee.

 

[Jev]

Streaming services are already making movies now, so it wouldn't be a leap for them to gradually subsume the roles of studios. Netflix's budget this year is now above 17b (up from 15b last year) and is projected to reach 26b by 2028, so they are going to be calling the shots on how to distribute content (including movies). The pricing would probably remain the same, and anyone interested in watching the latest big budget movie would simply rent it as an add on to the monthly fee.

But Netflix are not making any money, despite being the biggest player by far.

 

[Raoul]

But Netflix are not making any money, despite being the biggest player by far.

They had 20b in revenue last year.

 

[Camilo]

Thousands of jobs... Wonder what we're all going to do for a living when everything is streamed to our sofa and all the jobs and businesses we don't really need are long gone.

 

[Drawfull]

The future of cinema will be streaming with only a few bigger cinemas remaining open for the novelty.

Who know, maybe cinema will have a minor resurgence one day like Vinyl did this decade.

The second sentence is a good shout with where tech is right now.

The problem with streaming is that even at 4K, as far as I know, none of the big players offer lossless audio. I'm not an audiophile, but on my modest set-up the difference is massive between a 4K disc and Apple's 4K audio*, and I think we will go back to wanting a really big screen experience if things don't get the uptick on the streaming side.

*some films are markedly better on disc visually too, but Apple's 4K is pretty good since many films are not really 4K to start with.

 

[robinamicrowave]

Cinema won't die because there's no other alternative, but it might look very, very different if this nightmare ever ends. Some chains might have gone and been replaced, some independents will have disappeared for good, quite a lot of studios might be making smaller-budget movies for a while, but it will slowly rebuild itself. It's a huge market and people like going to watch something on the big screen - the small screen cannot replace and cannot compete with it, as streaming figures have shown for Mulan, etc.

 

[Drawfull]

Cinema won't die because there's no other alternative, but it might look very, very different if this nightmare ever ends. Some chains might have gone and been replaced, some independents will have disappeared for good, quite a lot of studios might be making smaller-budget movies for a while, but it will slowly rebuild itself. It's a huge market and people like going to watch something on the big screen - the small screen cannot replace and cannot compete with it, as streaming figures have shown for Mulan, etc.

The Mulan fee was bullshit, it deserved to get shit numbers. It's one thing Apple asking you to rent a film from iTunes; it's something else entirely to have a subscription-only service demand 20 euros to watch one particular film, especially if you've already paid a year up front.

 

[Dan_F]

I went to an Odeon to watch Tenet about 2 weeks after opening, and there was about 15 people there, no different to a normal weekday evening. They were showing it about 20 times a day on different screens, meaning that visitors were spread out.

If a normal amount of films were releasing now, surely the chains would still be able to make similar amounts of money. I initially felt a bit unsure about going to the cinema, but it’s probably one of the safer indoor things you can do at the moment.

 

[Pexbo]

Just confirmed on BBC news, all Cineworld in the UK are shutting.

 

[Raw]

Just confirmed on BBC news, all Cineworld in the UK are shutting.

The US too. So many jobs, fecking hell.

 

[Heardy]

“Temporary closure” - not sure what that means, but surely it’s a post-furlough measure for a couple of months. You’d think that they’d have been more creative and come out with alternate offerings in this period.

I’d pay £25 a ticket to see Aliens, lord of the rings, Rocky, godfather films back to back in a socially distanced cinema.

Halloween is coming - show a shit ton of old movies where people buy a day ticket and could watch 4 films in set seats.

Same with Christmas movies like home alone, die hard etc.

Sure the business model is pretty unviable with no / limited releases, but they need to be more imaginative.

 

[ChrisNelson]

I really hope it isn't the end for cinemas but it's a very bad sign for the future.

I usually go a couple of times a week to use my Limitless card at Odeon so the last few months has been strange.

When the all re-opened it was mainly showings of old films which I understood while they were getting back on their feet and arranging which new films would show and when.

So I went to see a couple of old favourites, then things looked like they were getting back to normal and I went to see Unhinged (which was ok) and Tenet (which was unspeakably bad).

I assumed this would start the ball rolling with other new releases but they just haven't been forthcoming, presumably because the studios don't want to release films to be shown in half empty cinemas.

I think for a time loyal cinema visitors were sort of ok with the situation but after a few weeks they didn't show any intention of bringing out anything new. It's now probably a month since I last visited (whenever Tenet was released).

The second delay of Bond was obviously the final nail in the coffin for Cineworld, I check the showtimes for my local Odeon every day and nothing exciting is happening at all, I assume it is virtually empty during the week.

If Bond ends up going straight to DVD or stream then they may as well shut every cinema in the country, really sad times.

 

[LawCharltonBest]

Cineworld offered me a job in my late teens / early 20s. I didn’t take it. But I have a fondness for them.

Hope they reopen

 

[ThierryHenry]

45,000 jobs to go. Fecking tragic.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

I think cinema will inevitably die. In the same way that running water and bathtubs killed off people going to the public baths.

 

[Spoony]

I think cinema will inevitably die. In the same way that running water and bathtubs killed off people going to the public baths.

Yeah but the bath experience was probably better at home .

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Yeah but the bath experience was probably better at home .

VR will make cinema better at home, eventually.

 

[ThierryHenry]

I think cinema will inevitably die. In the same way that running water and bathtubs killed off people going to the public baths.

I don't see it.

Live entertainment will always be in-demand, as people crave better experiences than just sitting in their living room. (Pre-covid) Vinyl, CDs, iPods and streaming have all failed to kill off live music, which continues to grow both in absolute terms, and in relative importance to artists. Retail is dying because for most people, it's more convenient and preferable to shop online. Not the same as watching a film in a huge auditorium with visuals and sound that you would never be able to replicate at home, and where you're forced to completely focus on the screen.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

I don't see it.

Live entertainment will always be in-demand, as people crave better experiences than just sitting in their living room. (Pre-covid) Vinyl, CDs, iPods and streaming have all failed to kill off live music, which continues to grow both in absolute terms, and in relative importance to artists. Retail is dying because for most people, it's more convenient and preferable to shop online. Not the same as watching a film in a huge auditorium with visuals and sound that you would never be able to replicate at home, and where you're forced to completely focus on the screen.

 

[ThierryHenry]

Yeah, that's a scary chart. But;
1) If the average person goes 3.5 times per year... that still seems like a pretty huge number to me? That's almost 1.2bn cinema visits in the USA last year.
2) Global box office is still trending upwards:

 

[OleBoiii]

Arthouse cinemas will probably not die in my lifetime, though there may be fewer of them.

I've always had a soft spot for going to the movies, even though I can have much better viewing experience from home. To me, going to the movies is a cultural experience as well as a nostalgia trip. The "inability" to check your phone and speak with your friends forces you to pay attention to the movie, which I love. I hate it when my wife or friends ask questions or start talking about their theories in the middle of the film. And then there's the smell. The smell of movie theaters just fills me with joy.

The loss of mainstream cinemas isn't a big loss to me personally, since I mostly go to the arthouse cinemas anyways. But I feel for the employees. I also think it's sad that the next generation of kids might grow up without the experience of going to the movies, though I guess there are some old farts who think it's sad that I grew up not listening to the radio every night

 

[OleBoiii]

These numbers are actually higher than I thought! :O I thought the average was gonna 2 at most.