The dominos that will fall because of Covid-19

Ish

Lights on for Luke
Joined
Mar 10, 2010
Messages
32,172
Location
Voted the best city in the world
That's a large generalisation.

In theory, maybe. But African airports have been screening everyone who lands for well over a month (at least in Ghana & Nigeria, based on what my friends & mum have told me) and sub-saharan Africa specifically is the continent which is currently showing the slowest growth in new cases, and the least amount of deceased too.
Plus I think there are further plans to close borders to other African countries & limit outside travel too. That's far more organised than many plans set up by Western countries.

Could it grow in the future? Sure, but I don't think automatic 'suffering' considering the continent has dealt with far worse.

Also due to a lot of those situations you listed like bad hygiene, dodgy hospitals & something like malaria - I think there's a possibility of sub-saharan africans having a built-up immune system to help combat the virus - that's based on nothing more than a gut-feeling & anecdotal evidence of course.
Preach sister! We got this! How can we worry about a strain of flu, when we have to worry about electricity and running water :cool:
 

Shakesy

WW Head of Recruiting
Joined
Feb 23, 2016
Messages
9,981
Location
Directly under the sun... NOW!
That's a large generalisation.

In theory, maybe. But African airports have been screening everyone who lands for well over a month (at least in Ghana & Nigeria, based on what my friends & mum have told me) and sub-saharan Africa specifically is the continent which is currently showing the slowest growth in new cases, and the least amount of deceased too.
Plus I think there are further plans to close borders to other African countries & limit outside travel too. That's far more organised than many plans set up by Western countries.

Could it grow in the future? Sure, but I don't think automatic 'suffering' considering the continent has dealt with far worse.

Also due to a lot of those situations you listed like bad hygiene, dodgy hospitals & something like malaria - I think there's a possibility of sub-saharan africans having a built-up immune system to help combat the virus - that's based on nothing more than a gut-feeling & anecdotal evidence of course.
I hope you're right. I live here.

Being immune (not that Southern Africans are immune) to malaria does not mean we are immune to Covid. And of course, having dealt with worse (are you talking disease here?) does not mean this highly contagious virus won't spread. Tuberculosis (TB) prevalence in my country (South Africa) is the highest in the world. We also have the highest number of AIDS cases. And most of us live in abject poverty in townships (I guess you know this).

And of course, winter is coming (for some reason I used a billion brackets in this response). Maybe I'm trying to isolate my points.

Isolation is the new cool.
 

Skills

Snitch
Joined
Jan 17, 2012
Messages
42,082
That's a large generalisation.

In theory, maybe. But African airports have been screening everyone who lands for well over a month (at least in Ghana & Nigeria, based on what my friends & mum have told me) and sub-saharan Africa specifically is the continent which is currently showing the slowest growth in new cases, and the least amount of deceased too.
Plus I think there are further plans to close borders to other African countries & limit outside travel too. That's far more organised than many plans set up by Western countries.

Could it grow in the future? Sure, but I don't think automatic 'suffering' considering the continent has dealt with far worse.

Also due to a lot of those situations you listed like bad hygiene, dodgy hospitals & something like malaria - I think there's a possibility of sub-saharan africans having a built-up immune system to help combat the virus - that's based on nothing more than a gut-feeling & anecdotal evidence of course.
Unfortunately, I think it might be the other way around. The sickle cell anaemia which gives a lot of Sub-Saharan Africans some resistance to Malaria, might end up compounding the illnesses caused by this particular virus.
 

arnie_ni

Full Member
Joined
Apr 27, 2014
Messages
15,200
The missus has just had a job offer taken away. 2 months in to her 3 months notice period. Project management In the travel industry so not surprising
She sign the contract before handing in her notice?
 

2cents

Historiographer, and obtainer of rare antiquities
Scout
Joined
Mar 19, 2008
Messages
16,276
Africa’s relatively youthful population should help ensure lower mortality rate I would have thought.

Do S-S African countries suffer badly from heart disease, diabetes, obesity, etc.? My uninformed impression is that they do not, or at least not to the same extent as countries further north. This should help.

Finally, I’d imagine spending more time outdoors could help slow down the spread of this virus. May be a partial explanation for the relatively low number of cases we’ve seen in tropical regions so far (and yes there is the Singapore example, but my main memory from Singapore is that everybody spends their days in massive air-conditioned shopping malls).

None of the above is based on expertise, just some personal thoughts.
 

Shakesy

WW Head of Recruiting
Joined
Feb 23, 2016
Messages
9,981
Location
Directly under the sun... NOW!
Africa’s relatively youthful population should help ensure lower mortality rate I would have thought.

Do S-S African countries suffer badly from heart disease, diabetes, obesity, etc.? My uninformed impression is that they do not, or at least not to the same extent as countries further north. This should help.

Finally, I’d imagine spending more time outdoors could help slow down the spread of this virus. May be a partial explanation for the relatively low number of cases we’ve seen in tropical regions so far (and yes there is the Singapore example, but my main memory from Singapore is that everybody spends their days with n massive air-conditioned shopping malls).

None of the above is based on expertise, just some personal thoughts.
The younger people depend on the older people. A majority in both groups live on a terribly low government subsidy and day to day jobs, which will all dry up. Breadwinners will get desperate. Wealthy people will get even more paranoid. Hospitals, which are full every winter in any case, will buckle. Angry people will take to the streets to vent their anger at the risk of infection.

I am not optimistic. But who knows. I hope you're right.
 

2cents

Historiographer, and obtainer of rare antiquities
Scout
Joined
Mar 19, 2008
Messages
16,276
The younger people depend on the older people. A majority in both groups live on a terribly low government subsidy and day to day jobs, which will all dry up. Breadwinners will get desperate. Wealthy people will get even more paranoid. Hospitals, which are full every winter in any case, will buckle. Angry people will take to the streets to vent their anger at the risk of infection.

I am not optimistic. But who knows. I hope you're right.
Where on the continent are you? (apologies if you mentioned already)
 

Full bodied red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 26, 2014
Messages
2,370
Location
The Var, France
Don't forget Virgin were sueing the NHS not that long ago. fecking pricks.

Another ' Triple Nationality ' airline.

Branson owns 20% ; Air France / KLM own 31% ; and Delta ( US ) owns 49%.

And Branson's 20% is owned by a UK company which itself is owned by the Branson family owned Parent Company registered, surprise, surprise, in the Tax Haven of British Virgin Islands.

If I was a UK Tax Payer, I'd be feckin' livid if Virgin Atlantic gets even one penny from the UK Government.
 

villain

Hates Beyoncé
Joined
Apr 22, 2014
Messages
14,973
Preach sister! We got this! How can we worry about a strain of flu, when we have to worry about electricity and running water :cool:
I dunno man Ghana is pretty settled on electricity & running water, but safe roads & jobs? thats another story :lol:

Seriously villian, don't peddle or believe this! There's south Asians who think they are immune becuase they reside in shit.
Well its not just that, but there those in warmer climates tend to eat a more vitamin-c filled diet which also helps build immune-system resistance.

I hope you're right. I live here.

Being immune (not that Southern Africans are immune) to malaria does not mean we are immune to Covid. And of course, having dealt with worse (are you talking disease here?) does not mean this highly contagious virus won't spread. Tuberculosis (TB) prevalence in my country (South Africa) is the highest in the world. We also have the highest number of AIDS cases. And most of us live in abject poverty in townships (I guess you know this).

And of course, winter is coming (for some reason I used a billion brackets in this response). Maybe I'm trying to isolate my points.

Isolation is the new cool.
I don't know what the situation is like in South Africa, I was only speaking on Ghana & Nigeria due to second-hand personal experience. How many deaths have there been in SA?

Unfortunately, I think it might be the other way around. The sickle cell anaemia which gives a lot of Sub-Saharan Africans some resistance to Malaria, might end up compounding the illnesses caused by this particular virus.
How so?
 

Shakesy

WW Head of Recruiting
Joined
Feb 23, 2016
Messages
9,981
Location
Directly under the sun... NOW!
I don't know what the situation is like in South Africa, I was only speaking on Ghana & Nigeria due to second-hand personal experience. How many deaths have there been in SA?
None. But jobs are being lost. And it's obviously just a matter of time before people start dying. And... Starving? I dunno. Maybe we dodge the bullet.
 

villain

Hates Beyoncé
Joined
Apr 22, 2014
Messages
14,973
None. But jobs are being lost. And it's obviously just a matter of time before people start dying. And... Starving? I dunno. Maybe we dodge the bullet.
Yeah the economy failing is the biggest danger so far, imo. There's no infrastructure in place to support a self-isolation lifestyle & the majority of workers get money by face-to-face interaction (at least in Ghana). But hopefully by restricting movement in & out of the country it will help flattern the curve before rainy season begins in a couple of months.
 

Ish

Lights on for Luke
Joined
Mar 10, 2010
Messages
32,172
Location
Voted the best city in the world
I dunno man Ghana is pretty settled on electricity & running water, but safe roads & jobs? thats another story :lol:
Yeah no worries, I was just being facetious. I think we’re probably still heading for much worse here in South Africa. It’s essentially just started - as at Sunday night the president declared this a disaster and shut down schools, were doing isolation and most workplaces have implemented work from home solutions. We had 62 infected as at Sunday (60 from overseas and 2 from cross infection from the 60 iirc). No deaths.

People are stocking up on food and hygiene products so the supermarkets are quite empty. We’re still at “no more than 100 gatherings” - which will probably decrease again this week. borders have been closed, religious or cultural gatherings have been banned etc. So to this point....we’ve been alright.

Just a big concern if this virus makes its way into the informal settlements etc.
 

Dante

Average bang
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
25,280
Location
My wit's end
I posted earlier that I think this could be the most significant global event since the adoption of the Internet. It's going to have far bigger ramifications than the banking crisis and 9/11.
I was going to pose this exact question earlier. Though my top 3 would have been limited to this millenium: 9/11, the Iraq War or Covid-19.

I still think 9/11 changed more about the world than Covid-19 will. But I wouldn't argue too strongly against anyone who thought otherwise.

Whatever the case, if there's really such a thing as a pre- and post-9/11 world, there's certainly going to be a pre- and post-Covid-19 world.
I take it back... you're right.

This will turn out to have the bigger impact than 9/11.

If taken over the last 205 years, I think it's going to end up on the list of infamy alongside the Napoleonic Wars, WWI, WWII and the fall of the Berlin Wall.
 

TMDaines

Fun sponge.
Joined
Sep 1, 2014
Messages
13,977
I take it back... you're right.

This will turn out to have the bigger impact than 9/11.

If taken over the last 205 years, I think it's going to end up on the list of infamy alongside the Napoleonic Wars, WWI, WWII and the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Far bigger than fall of Berlin Wall. That thawed the Cold War for some time, but Ukraine was always to bound to start that one again. I guess for some countries the fall of the Wall is the biggest defining event in their post-WWII history though. This globally will be in a different stratosphere.

Already it feels like the Manchester derby was a lifetime away.
 

FéNaSeleção

Full Member
Joined
Apr 9, 2015
Messages
190
Location
City spends while United defends!
I am scared that if we get through this with relatively few fatalities and Trump takes the credit, then people will call it overblown and not heed the warnings of the NEXT pandemic and take it lightly. That would only lead to more unpreparedness and deaths in the future.
 

Irwin99

Full Member
Joined
Aug 6, 2018
Messages
9,339
I am scared that if we get through this with relatively few fatalities and Trump takes the credit, then people will call it overblown and not heed the warnings of the NEXT pandemic and take it lightly. That would only lead to more unpreparedness and deaths in the future.
I don't think there's much chance of that. This will have very serious and possibly disastrous economic, political and social repercussions and the world wasn't exactly in a great state before all this anyway. Best hope is that people learn from it when the dust settles, which may not be for quite sometime.
 

Dante

Average bang
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
25,280
Location
My wit's end
We've had 10 years of austerity, and it was promised that 2020 would see the start of some investment back into public services.

Fat chance of that now.

In fairness, I do support the policy of paying 80% of wages for workers affected by C19. But it's going to have some serious knock-on effects. I mean, this outbreak was always going to have serious economic ramifications for the UK. However, this is the first quantifiable one.
 

momo83

Massive Snowflake
Joined
Dec 5, 2013
Messages
1,463
If its true that China is now recovering from the virus then it will give a lot of people the idea that a authoritarian capitalist state is the way to go.

Which would be worrying.
In 2003 we had SARS which spread from China to a few other countries. Most notably Canada, fortunately the virus mutated in a way that made it more deadly but less infectious.

Now we have Coronavirus. Dr in Wuhan was warning about it since Nov/Dec and he was put in jail while the Chinese Gov denied anything was wrong. If the Chinese Government had, instead of silencing and imprisoning the Doctor, listened, acted, and warned the world its likely that this virus would have been contained.

So while i’m no fan of Trump, I honestly do not understand why he is getting so much criticism but people are scared to say anything about the Chinese Government.

This virus started in China, the Chinese Doctor that warned the government and the world about it was arrested, the government lied and covered up the virus for as long as possible... because of that we are all fecked.

If anything should happen after this it should be some kind of “China treaty” amongst every country on earth, the next time there’s news of a virus in China, everyone immediately stops accepting flights, boats,,trains etc from China.
 

africanspur

Full Member
Joined
Sep 1, 2010
Messages
9,147
Supports
Tottenham Hotspur
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/arti...c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_posts

The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order
China Is Maneuvering for International Leadership as the United States Falters

Will be interesting to see the geopolitical fallout from this. I imagine some countries will move away from having so many of their vital supplies coming from one country.

And Trump reduces America's International status and standing once again.
 

Classical Mechanic

Full Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2014
Messages
35,216
Location
xG Zombie Nation
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/arti...c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_posts

The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order
China Is Maneuvering for International Leadership as the United States Falters

Will be interesting to see the geopolitical fallout from this. I imagine some countries will move away from having so many of their vital supplies coming from one country.

And Trump reduces America's International status and standing once again.
Putin sending Russian military medics into Italy @11101 says there’s growing resentment in Italy against the EU because of their reaction to the Covid-19 outbreak in Italy. Looks to be pretty politically loaded from Putin.
 

horsechoker

The Caf's Roy Keane.
Joined
Apr 16, 2015
Messages
52,153
Location
The stable
Putin sending Russian military medics into Italy @11101 says there’s growing resentment in Italy against the EU because of their reaction to the Covid-19 outbreak in Italy. Looks to be pretty politically loaded from Putin.
Italexit would arguably be more disastrous than Brexit but I can see the eurosceptics using this to push for a referendum on membership.

The EU is going to have to work a lot hard to maintain itself because the Russians and Chinese will attack any weakness
 

Classical Mechanic

Full Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2014
Messages
35,216
Location
xG Zombie Nation
Italexit would arguably be more disastrous than Brexit but I can see the eurosceptics using this to push for a referendum on membership.

The EU is going to have to work a lot hard to maintain itself because the Russians and Chinese will attack any weakness
The Russian military doing aid work in the EU is a pretty symbolic moment in my opinion. As you say, China and Russia will be eyeing a new world order from this.
 

Alabaster Codify7

New Member
Joined
Mar 11, 2015
Messages
6,553
Location
Wales
I in no way, shape or form voted Brexit nor am I happy with it. But I've always held the opinion that the exit of the UK will only be the beginning, there were already several countries who were unhappy with the EU and seeing one of the 'big names' leaving was always going to stoke some fires. This virus pandemic and the effect it will have on a lot of countries in Europe will see more countries leaving in the next few years, I reckon.
 

Alabaster Codify7

New Member
Joined
Mar 11, 2015
Messages
6,553
Location
Wales
Who wants to be under US influence quite frankly? They have become a shitshow.

I was saying that the other day, Donald Trump is actually the perfect President for the USA in 2020 because he personifies the current state of the country and how they are viewed globally. Brash, arrogant/overly confident, vain, full of big words and big claims but nothing to back it up. They are definitely, like us, a fading power.
 

Jaqen H'ghar

I can't drive...55
Joined
Aug 26, 2015
Messages
1,409
In 2003 we had SARS which spread from China to a few other countries. Most notably Canada, fortunately the virus mutated in a way that made it more deadly but less infectious.

Now we have Coronavirus. Dr in Wuhan was warning about it since Nov/Dec and he was put in jail while the Chinese Gov denied anything was wrong. If the Chinese Government had, instead of silencing and imprisoning the Doctor, listened, acted, and warned the world its likely that this virus would have been contained.

So while i’m no fan of Trump, I honestly do not understand why he is getting so much criticism but people are scared to say anything about the Chinese Government.

This virus started in China, the Chinese Doctor that warned the government and the world about it was arrested, the government lied and covered up the virus for as long as possible... because of that we are all fecked.

If anything should happen after this it should be some kind of “China treaty” amongst every country on earth, the next time there’s news of a virus in China, everyone immediately stops accepting flights, boats,,trains etc from China.
The Chinese regime deserves condemnation on a lot of issues, no doubt about that, and there's plenty to condemn them for. I'm not sure that using this outbreak to settle scores is warrented or possible.

Trump is being criticized for being a bumbling idiot, resorting to propoganda to manufacture outrage and divert attention from the actual crisis. America has been caught unprepared, and his response has been diversion, misinformation and dressing down reporters who try to do their job. He's getting far less criticism than he deserves.

Like the post below yours says, China are more likely to gain from this crisis than lose.
 

11101

Full Member
Joined
Aug 26, 2014
Messages
21,299
Putin sending Russian military medics into Italy @11101 says there’s growing resentment in Italy against the EU because of their reaction to the Covid-19 outbreak in Italy. Looks to be pretty politically loaded from Putin.
I actually wonder if it could be the real end of the EU, never mind Brexit. Unthinkable to say a month ago but a lot has changed in the world since then. Italy already knows but i expect other countries will find out how 'together' Europe really is once this is over.

China sent us people and equipment. Now Russia is too. We haven't had as much as a face mask from the rest of Europe.
 

berbatrick

Renaissance Man
Scout
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
21,627
All sides are vindicated



(though the "we're the virus" stuff belongs more in botto left or top right; top left should be a paean to China)
 

prateik

Full Member
Joined
Dec 14, 2005
Messages
42,175

Some financial implications for football.
listening to this now..

10 days old.. Ornie trying to sound cautious and even then he gets it waaaay off.. said Liverpool will probably wrap up the title before any stadium ban takes place.
 

sammsky1

Pochettino's #1 fan
Joined
Feb 10, 2008
Messages
32,841
Location
London
If shit his the fan in the UK I can see the Tories being destroyed in an election for there handling of it.

It could be quite the opposite in Ireland though where the 2 "big" parties were hammered in the recent elections but there handling of this could lead to a surge in support in the next election.
This will play out for several years. No matter how well the tories do in this crisis (Churchill), if Labour can install the the right leader, then the country will be desperate for the comfort blanket that Labour will pretend to offer (Attlee)
 

Dante

Average bang
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
25,280
Location
My wit's end
Once this country goes into lockdown, people will begin to get used to the idea of a police state. Not only control of movement and assembly, but also tracking and surveillance.

It could be the thin end of the wedge. People seem to want what China have.

What happens the next time there's a crisis? Would we roll out the same measures if there's a particularly bad seasonal flu that kills at a rate that's a quarter of C19?
 

KirkDuyt

Full Member
Joined
Nov 25, 2015
Messages
24,555
Location
Dutchland
Supports
Feyenoord
Quite a few of my right, anti EU leaning friends are saying that this pandemic will open the world's eyes to the fact we should leave the EU and take care of only ourselves.

Now I know I am of a contrarian nature, but doesnt a pandemic highlight more than anuthing that isolationism and individualism is archaic and needs to feck off? The world is tiny now, what happens in 1 place has ramifications potentially everywhere.
 
Joined
May 22, 2017
Messages
13,122
This will play out for several years. No matter how well the tories do in this crisis (Churchill), if Labour can install the the right leader, then the country will be desperate for the comfort blanket that Labour will pretend to offer (Attlee)
highly doubtful. Labour are seriously struggling to find any way of criticising the reaction from this government.

there’s no way labour is offering any credible alternative. This is a centre/ centre left leaning Tory government. Labour are not getting near power for at least a decade.
 

Pexbo

Winner of the 'I'm not reading that' medal.
Joined
Jun 2, 2009
Messages
68,656
Location
Brizzle
Supports
Big Days
All sides are vindicated



(though the "we're the virus" stuff belongs more in botto left or top right; top left should be a paean to China)
Bottom right is gold