The dominos that will fall because of Covid-19

Don't Kill Bill

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The reasoning is implicit in all the independent variables I cited. Humans are innately inclined to seek stable end states in order to advance their mutual interests. Cooperating on how to prevent future global pandemics is merely one of a long list of areas where cooperation outweighs not-cooperating.
Humans are innately inclined to seek many often contrary outcomes. If covid-19 proves anything its that humans are not in a position to decide the outcomes of everything anyway. Cooperation on how to handle the next pandemic doesn't mean the obvious point that greater contact with and travel around the world makes us much more vulnerable to pandemics. We can add this to a known disaster for the environment as well.

People are not going to unlearn the fact that this isn't, as yet, the worst case virus nor will it be the last. That the financial loss is far greater than people previously thought and therefore the risks much higher for most, than the globalized elite ever let on while preaching its benefits.

Who knows what the final take on this is going to be but so far I don't see any momentum for globalized solutions but the exact opposite.
 

devilish

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This will probably be the historical event that convinces humans they have to cooperate more in the future.
Actually I think the opposite will happen. It will convince countries to go insular by closing borders and bringing industries back home (like medical equipment etc). China is sensing the threat hence why its sending as much help as possible.
 

ROFLUTION

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Yeah, no. If anything, I think this is making people realise the disadvantages of globalisation and the necessity for countries to be as self-reliant as possible rather than outsourcing their work to cheaper labour (which would also save a lot of CO2) as well as having reasonable borders. The dependancy of countries among each other and the high fluctuation of people inbetween them is what is causing this issue currently.
But what do you base this non-coorporativeness and isolation on? The signs of the times before the crisis? Like Brexit and Trump? Every man for himself hasn't been the case in all crisises historically, I believe. I could understand if it was somehow because of lack of will to understand history and why EU is a good idea, but there's a lot of people who wants to help other people out in these times.

Signs in Denmark:
Here in Denmark, the majority of danish people are very happy on how the government has helped us all out with a bail and directives on how to handle the situation. A lot of companies / closed research-labs have used their time indoors to come up with ideas on how they can benefit to help spread the disease. There's not even any economical advantage for some of them, it's mostly altruistic because they have time on their hands and nothing to do. A lot of people trying to advice other businesses through facebook-groups, etc. People are beginning to understand the effects of a collective hive-mind more if you ask me.

A lot of new ways to coorporate and inventions will come out of this I believe. Of course there's a huge short-term aftermath for some years, on how the EU recovers Italy, Spain and the pivotal powers like Germany and France. But why wouldnt this highlight that the EU countries need to coorporate in order to start up trade again and help the overall economy?

Maybe I'm just seeing different signs in Denmark because we are quite prepared. How is the atmosphere in Germany?
 

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First domino Qadhafi:

 

Raoul

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Actually I think the opposite will happen. It will convince countries to go insular by closing borders and bringing industries back home (like medical equipment etc). China is sensing the threat hence why its sending as much help as possible.
That’s certainly the case right now to stop the virus from spreading, but when you factor in the reality that economics are global and states can’t put the genie back in the bottle by no longer depending on one another, as well as the fact that even worse viruses are likely to kill far more people in the future - at some point we will all be incentivized to mitigate and solve the issue together by combining resources, best practices, information, and funds to get after the problem.
 

11101

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That’s certainly the case right now to stop the virus from spreading, but when you factor in the reality that economics are global and states can’t put the genie back in the bottle by no longer depending on one another, as well as the fact that even worse viruses are likely to kill far more people in the future - at some point we will all be incentivized to mitigate and solve the issue together by combining resources, best practices, information, and funds to get after the problem.
Happy to be corrected but off the top of my heard, in times of crisis people have always retrenched into their national/local identities. The Great Depression, World War 1, World War 2, the oil crisis.
 

Raoul

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Happy to be corrected but off the top of my heard, in times of crisis people have always retrenched into their national/local identities. The Great Depression, World War 1, World War 2, the oil crisis.
That's because the nature of those crises was based on states competing against one another to advance their interests during events before the information age. A deadly global virus many orders of magnitude more lethal than this one - or let's say an Asteroid tumbling towards earth in 12 years from now - would remove state competition since it would affect everyone. So while part of the world (each state) would retrench into its own culture and resources, we would still be more incentivized to cooperate with others because our fate would depend on it.
 
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Organic Potatoes

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Happy to be corrected but off the top of my heard, in times of crisis people have always retrenched into their national/local identities. The Great Depression, World War 1, World War 2, the oil crisis.
The Great Depression led to migrations and another mixing of people, at least in the US.

WWI led to the League of Nations, WWII to the more functional (though still not all powerful) United Nations.

It stands to reason a global crisis on that scale will force humanity to come to grips with the new reality of globalization, the same as the world wars did in the ‘industrial‘ and then the ‘modern’ eras respectively. Not that I’m saying we’ve reached that level yet in this instance.
 

sun_tzu

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And the EU, eventually.
this may break the EU... whilst Germany was prepared to bail out Greece, Italy, Portugal in the financial crisis to maintain EU unity that was at a time when the German economy was booming - will they be so willing to do so if the German economy is in recession (which I think most probably all economies will be)
 

André Dominguez

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this may break the EU... whilst Germany was prepared to bail out Greece, Italy, Portugal in the financial crisis to maintain EU unity that was at a time when the German economy was booming - will they be so willing to do so if the German economy is in recession (which I think most probably all economies will be)
True: Germany, Austria, Holland, Belgium and Luxembourg are not going to concede grace periods. This will also affect UK, since those countries own a lot of national debts from other EU countries.
It's easy to face crisis when you have superavit, though.
 

maniak

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The EU will come out of this even more fragile. Countries can't even agree on helping each other when people are dying by the thousands every day. Personally I like the EU but every time I listen to one of the northern politicians giving lessons to southern countries, I just feel like telling them to feck off. The dutch money men in particular seem to be right cnuts.
 

11101

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Spain getting pissed off with the EU too now:

Spain, 'EU not turn its back on citizens'

Regretting the lack of consensus within the EU to deal with the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the Spanish government asks the European institutions not to turn their backs on citizens in an emergency situation like this. "This crisis will not be resolved if each country decides to act on its own" because the pandemic is "global" and "has an impact on everyone". This was underlined by the minister Maria Jesus Montero, government spokesman, at a press conference today after the council of ministers, cited by the EFE.
 

Atze-Peng

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But what do you base this non-coorporativeness and isolation on? The signs of the times before the crisis? Like Brexit and Trump? Every man for himself hasn't been the case in all crisises historically, I believe. I could understand if it was somehow because of lack of will to understand history and why EU is a good idea, but there's a lot of people who wants to help other people out in these times.

Signs in Denmark:
Here in Denmark, the majority of danish people are very happy on how the government has helped us all out with a bail and directives on how to handle the situation. A lot of companies / closed research-labs have used their time indoors to come up with ideas on how they can benefit to help spread the disease. There's not even any economical advantage for some of them, it's mostly altruistic because they have time on their hands and nothing to do. A lot of people trying to advice other businesses through facebook-groups, etc. People are beginning to understand the effects of a collective hive-mind more if you ask me.

A lot of new ways to coorporate and inventions will come out of this I believe. Of course there's a huge short-term aftermath for some years, on how the EU recovers Italy, Spain and the pivotal powers like Germany and France. But why wouldnt this highlight that the EU countries need to coorporate in order to start up trade again and help the overall economy?

Maybe I'm just seeing different signs in Denmark because we are quite prepared. How is the atmosphere in Germany?
I base it on history. These close-knitted cooperations between countries and more peaceful times ALWAYS happened out of a foundation of an overabundance of ressources. What do you think will happen when ressources become sparse and the economy goes into a big recession - which is pretty likely? Just look how there is a lot of nasty play going on right now. Germany blocking transports to Switzerland. France doing something similar. Czechs stealing stuff that were meant for the italians, etc. You assume all of this from the point of view of things running relatively smooth - aka a good-case scenario. I go at it from a bad-case scenario. And in these everyone will be their own best friend first.

The state of having an abundance of ressources in our western nations is collapsing. It already was 2008, but we kept it artificially alive rather than allowing it to crash and burn and then rebuilding. And when things go rough - as you can see currently - countries are only looking at themselves first. In german we have a saying about this: "Your own ass always comes first". The only reason we still see cooperations right now is, because we still have enough ressources for the right now, but not much longer due to production drastically slowing down. The hundreds of thousands lay offs didn't happen yet, food didn't get sparse yet, no inflation due to governments pumping in a shitton money to keep the cashflow going yet. So people will use their free time sorta productively for the time being before the ripple effect kicks in.

Essentially you are assuming we are recovering from this virus relatively easily. We probably would have 20-30 years ago, but not in the current state our worlds economy is in thanks to the way our monetary system functions. There is a reason why several politicians (including Trump) are already talking about loosening the lockdowns up - not because they want people to die from the virus, but because the economy can't hold out much longer.
On the other hand I am approaching this from the perspective that things are just getting started to get rough. The virus isn't the cause, but the catalyst that speeds this development up.


Also to the point of Denmark. Denmark, such as Iceland (don't mistake their numbers, they are only that high because they are one of the few places that tested everyone), Singapore, South Korea, have the advantage of being more mobile and more quick to move and be active due to the smaller size. That's a known fact in the business world for a long time. The bigger the company, the slower it moves. Also the more people are involved the less productive the individual will be on average due to the need of extensive organisation. In short, when the right decisions are being made, it's easier to organise 15 rather than 100 people. Or 5 million rather than 80 million.



That's because the nature of those crises was based on states competing against one another to advance their interests during events before the information age. A deadly global virus many orders of magnitude more lethal than this one - or let's say an Asteroid tumbling towards earth in 12 years from now - would remove state competition since it would affect everyone. So while part of the world (each state) would retrench into its own culture and resources, we would still be more incentivized to cooperate with others because our fate would depend on it.
So with an economical recession as a ripple-effect of all these lockdowns, etc. - will not cause countries becoming more competitive for the reduced ressources they have? Hardly believable.


Spain getting pissed off with the EU too now:
As much as I agree with the EU being ridiculously useless right now, Spain really brought it upon themselves by ignoring the threat at first and continuing to keep public festivals for some juicy € with lots of tourists rather than cancelling them.
 

Raoul

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So with an economical recession as a ripple-effect of all these lockdowns, etc. - will not cause countries becoming more competitive for the reduced ressources they have? Hardly believable.
Recessions are temporary and don't reflect the sort of existential dangers that pandemics do.
 

Raoul

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Only if you assume this will be your average recession and not a major one.
Even so, economics are interdependent among states, so there's already a significant amount of cooperation taking place in terms of international agreements, company to company cross border deals etc.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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The problems inside the Euro zone are going to be enormous coming out of this.

EU is in major trouble. Guaranteed. We were not the only country considering leaving, you can bet that (and I voted Remain, for the record). This will only encourage tighter, home-run borders and a sense of 'independence'.
 

RedCoffee

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That's because the nature of those crises was based on states competing against one another to advance their interests during events before the information age. A deadly global virus many orders of magnitude more lethal than this one - or let's say an Asteroid tumbling towards earth in 12 years from now - would remove state competition since it would affect everyone. So while part of the world (each state) would retrench into its own culture and resources, we would still be more incentivized to cooperate with others because our fate would depend on it.
I agree. We could see a downsizing of many of the worlds top economies depending on how they come out of this crisis. There looks to be huge coverups in both China and Russia as they try to topple the US and EU.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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Happy to be corrected but off the top of my heard, in times of crisis people have always retrenched into their national/local identities. The Great Depression, World War 1, World War 2, the oil crisis.

To further your point, we already live in a world where right-wing sentiment and distrust of 'weird foreigners' is rife and reaching levels not seen since the bloody 1940s in some cases. Brexit, Britain First, EDL, all within our own borders. Trump and his Wall. The fact Donald Trump is even a fecking world leader in itself. Bolsonaro in Brazil. Right-wing rises in Europe, Austria, etc. Things are primed to go exactly the way you suggested.
 

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berbatrick

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dont want to clog up the main thread with this, and it's clearly related, so i'm putting it here:

 

Dante

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Listening to the Queen's speech, it was clear that she considered the fight against Covid-19 to be analogous to WWII on a certain level. Which is interesting since decades now, familial participation in WWII has been seen as some sort of acid test to true 'Britishness'.

Racists often bring up their granddads fighting on the frontlines of the the war, and infer that that gives them (and people who look like them) a special right of superiority over other everybody else.

But the new frontline of this nation's biggest fight in last 75 years is in the hospitals. And that fight is being fought by multi-cultural medical staff.

Could a shared tragedy help to create a new and broader definition for what it means to be British? I hope so.

Black and brown people are currently risking their own lives to save the lives of everybody else in the country. A little bit more respect is the least their communities deserve.
 

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Listening to the Queen's speech, it was clear that she considered the fight against Covid-19 to be analogous to WWII on a certain level. Which is interesting since decades now, familial participation in WWII has been seen as some sort of acid test to true 'Britishness'.

Racists often bring up their granddads fighting on the frontlines of the the war, and infer that that gives them (and people who look like them) a special right of superiority over other everybody else.

But the new frontline of this nation's biggest fight in last 75 years is in the hospitals. And that fight is being fought by multi-cultural medical staff.

Could a shared tragedy help to create a new and broader definition for what it means to be British? I hope so.

Black and brown people are currently risking their own lives to save the lives of everybody else in the country. A little bit more respect is the least their communities deserve.
I’m also hoping for a bit more respect for minimum wage workers. While management consultants are able to hole up in their fancy houses, working out to Joe Wicks videos, supermarket cashiers are risking their lives to keep food on everyone’s tables. Doctors and nurses aside, hospital porters and cleaners are also putting themselves in harms way for a pittance. I really hope they all get some recognition at the end of this.
 

horsechoker

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Listening to the Queen's speech, it was clear that she considered the fight against Covid-19 to be analogous to WWII on a certain level. Which is interesting since decades now, familial participation in WWII has been seen as some sort of acid test to true 'Britishness'.

Racists often bring up their granddads fighting on the frontlines of the the war, and infer that that gives them (and people who look like them) a special right of superiority over other everybody else.

But the new frontline of this nation's biggest fight in last 75 years is in the hospitals. And that fight is being fought by multi-cultural medical staff.

Could a shared tragedy help to create a new and broader definition for what it means to be British? I hope so.

Black and brown people are currently risking their own lives to save the lives of everybody else in the country. A little bit more respect is the least their communities deserve.
No, racists will still be racists and it will probably be the Chinese (specifically the Han) who will get the abuse.
 

Dante

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No, racists will still be racists and it will probably be the Chinese (specifically the Han) who will get the abuse.
White supremacists will continue to be white supremacists, I agree.

But I think this could turn out to be a watershed moment. Much like like seeing black footballers in an England shirt was to those who could only think of them as foreign invaders. It's about getting the nation inch its way towards full acceptance of non-whites as equal citizens.

It's never going to be a full solution, but every milestone makes a difference. And I hope this could be a big one.
 

Pexbo

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We now have upper middle class hate crime in the UK.

Coronavirus: Devon 'vigilantes' target family with second home

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52067211
The locals are absolutely right. I know someone who’s mother works in Treliske Hospital in cornwall. As of a few days ago they have 10 ICU beds, 50 Covid positive patients and 23 of them are from out of the county, either “isolating” in their second homes or came down to stay at holiday parks before they shut.

Whatsmore, Cornwall doesn't have very good Ambulance services at it is as a lot of the population live in rural areas which are very remote and, like Italy, it has a very elderly population. The absolute last thing places like this need is an influx of people from critical areas like London propagating the virus down there.
 

Jaqen H'ghar

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The locals are absolutely right. I know someone who’s mother works in Treliske Hospital in cornwall. As of a few days ago they have 10 ICU beds, 50 Covid positive patients and 23 of them are from out of the county, either “isolating” in their second homes or came down to stay at holiday parks before they shut.

Whatsmore, Cornwall doesn't have very good Ambulance services at it is as a lot of the population live in rural areas which are very remote and, like Italy, it has a very elderly population. The absolute last thing places like this need is an influx of people from critical areas like London propagating the virus down there.
They are not right, although they have a point. They are not within their rights legally nor morally to act like a mob and intimidate others.
 

Ian Reus

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I think this virus could possibly push India into superpower territory if nations start switching manufacturing from china to the sub continent.
 

Eriku

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The first Domino’s has fallen in my area. I tried to order a pizza today, was told they were closed due to illness :(
 

Organic Potatoes

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I think this virus could possibly push India into superpower territory if nations start switching manufacturing from china to the sub continent.
The term ‘superpower’ is thrown around a bit too loosely. I’d bet on there being no superpower at all before India becomes one, though either eventuality is unlikely anytime soon.
 

Pexbo

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They are not right, although they have a point. They are not within their rights legally nor morally to act like a mob and intimidate others.
Not within their rights legally or morally to write passive aggressive signs telling people to follow government advice and stop putting their community at risk? Give over. “Acting like a mob” :lol: how precious.