The end of Russia?

[horsechoker]

I've seen this touted as Ukraine makes more gains in the war.

Perhaps people are more well versed in geo-politics could shed some light on this.

Is the end of Russia even feesible? By the end I mean the break up of Russia into smaller states.

While I could see some breaking away, a complete Yugoslavia style break up seems farfetched

In realistic terms what would a humiliating retreat mean for Russia?

What are the implications? Would China allow such a thing?

 

[Stanley Road]

A weakend russia maybe

 

[The Corinthian]

I don’t see it happening.

More likely to be an internal coup to remove Putin from power coupled with the withdrawal of troops.

 

[The Firestarter]

Only remotely possible in the eventuality that Putin goes abruptly and a game of thrones style war ensues between those wanting to replace him. But I don't think many will want that position in such a moment.

 

[Maagge]

Russia is a bit of a strange country geographically with the sheer size of it and the various people living there. In that sense it's not really the most "natural" of countries, so it would probably "make sense" if it broke up into smaller countries. That happening politically is a completely different thing though, and even a heavy defeat in Ukraine probably wouldn't do it. I think economic sanctions are more likely to cause something like that providing things get bad enough in various places.

 

[2cents]

Sounds like an awful bloody nightmare.

 

[TheReligion]

I certainly feel it’s quite possibly the end of Russia as we have known it in recent times.

It looks like a plethora of war crimes are being uncovered in Ukraine as more land is liberated and I do think there’s going to be repercussions. It may take a few years but look at what happened with the Balkans.

 

[harms]

At this point, I don’t really think that it’s feasible — there aren’t any regions with notable separatist movements at the moment. If Putin and Kadyrov fall, maybe Chechnya will return to the idea, but that’s about it, I believe.

Although it probably would’ve been for the best.

 

[harms]

I certainly feel it’s quite possibly the end of Russia as we have known it in recent times.

It looks like a plethora of war crimes are being uncovered in Ukraine as more land is liberated and I do think there’s going to be repercussions. It may take a few years but look at what happened with the Balkans.

Balkans had a lot of different ethnicities shoved into a confined space. Add to that the religious component and artificially drawn borders…

I’m not even sure which states are going to form out of the current Russia. Tatarstan would probably be one, they have the numbers, more or less formed national identity, language… probably some state on the Far East, although I’m not sure on what grounds it will form. Chechnya & Dagestan and maybe a few other Caucasian republics can get independence. Can’t think about the rest.

 

[nimic]

Balkans had a lot of different ethnicities shoved into a confined space. Add to that the religious component and artificially drawn borders…

I’m not even sure which states are going to form out of the current Russia. Tatarstan would probably be one, they have the numbers, more or less formed national identity, language… probably some state on the Far East, although I’m not sure on what grounds it will form. Chechnya & Dagestan and maybe a few other Caucasian republics can get independence. Can’t think about the rest.

You're the expert here, but that's basically what I was thinking too. Beyond those, there are ethnic Russians in everywhere, so it's not like you could neatly divide it into states.

 

[TheReligion]

Balkans had a lot of different ethnicities shoved into a confined space. Add to that the religious component and artificially drawn borders…

I’m not even sure which states are going to form out of the current Russia. Tatarstan would probably be one, they have the numbers, more or less formed national identity, language… probably some state on the Far East, although I’m not sure on what grounds it will form. Chechnya & Dagestan and maybe a few other Caucasian republics can get independence. Can’t think about the rest.

You're the expert here, but that's basically what I was thinking too. Beyond those, there are ethnic Russians in everywhere, so it's not like you could neatly divide it into states.

Yeah I wasn’t so much comparing it for dividing up and what not more as a comparison to how Milosevic and his cronies were eventually tried at The Hague and met their comeuppance.

I appreciate Putin is a different kettle of fish so to speak however I’d imagine no one thought any of those involved in Kosovo would be brought to justice back then. These things can happen.

Not sure what a post Putin Russia would look like to be honest?

 

[tomaldinho1]

Whilst independence is probably a nice idea for peoples like the tartars, Chechens, Chuvash etc. on paper - you only need to look at what’s going on in the world to see size and military strength matters. Now isn’t the time to be small independent country sandwiched between whatever remains of Russia and China with no diplomatic relations.

 

[2cents]

Balkans had a lot of different ethnicities shoved into a confined space. Add to that the religious component and artificially drawn borders…

I’m not even sure which states are going to form out of the current Russia. Tatarstan would probably be one, they have the numbers, more or less formed national identity, language… probably some state on the Far East, although I’m not sure on what grounds it will form. Chechnya & Dagestan and maybe a few other Caucasian republics can get independence. Can’t think about the rest.

In such a context you can't just account for internal dynamics. Russia has 14 land borders with other states, along with very close proximity to two other historical rivals (USA and Japan), who would presumably all be very interested in assessing what they can gain from any potential breakdown of central authority in Moscow.

 

[harms]

In such a context you can't just account for internal dynamics. Russia has 14 land borders with other states, along with very close proximity to two other historical rivals (USA and Japan), who would presumably all be very interested in assessing what they can gain from any potential breakdown of central authority in Moscow.

There’s no potential proxy states in Far East that you can use to your advantage as an outside force. Japan will probably try to take the Kurils but that’s about it. You can’t really take a part of another country without any basis to that claim.

 

[2cents]

There’s no potential proxy states in Far East that you can use to your advantage as an outside force. Japan will probably try to take the Kurils but that’s about it. You can’t really take a part of another country without any basis to that claim.

I wasn't thinking in those terms, more that in the event of a power vacuum in Moscow, neighboring, rival powers are likely to attempt to shape the country's destiny in their own interests. For example a Sino-American struggle over Russia seems to me to have great potential to tear the country apart, not necessarily along ethnic or irridentist lines, although there may be some peripheral areas such as the Caucasus where they might come into play.

 

[Raoul]

I've seen this touted as Ukraine makes more gains in the war.

Perhaps people are more well versed in geo-politics could shed some light on this.

Is the end of Russia even feesible? By the end I mean the break up of Russia into smaller states.

While I could see some breaking away, a complete Yugoslavia style break up seems farfetched

In realistic terms what would a humiliating retreat mean for Russia?

What are the implications? Would China allow such a thing?

Can't see it happening. What I can see is Putin getting progressively weakend from within, which will result in regime change and a subsequent democratic government as a precursor to Russia's re-acceptance onto the world stage. It could of course also fall into a worse government than Putin, but that is unlikely given a desire for the resumption of ordinary life imo.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

It seems unlikely that Russia would break up but it depends on how much poorer they get and how long that goes on for. Might some oil rich area do the math and decide that on its own and clear of sanctions they would be better off?

With Putin weakened or gone the fight for control could spiral into factions and a separation of sorts could happen that way. Other than Chechnya I would be surprised.

 

[Pexbo]

The last thing you want is for a nuclear power to break up and create power vacuums and civil war.

 

[Buster15]

I don’t see it happening.

More likely to be an internal coup to remove Putin from power coupled with the withdrawal of troops.

Yes. I agree that could be the more likely outcome. A lot depends on how significant the protest movement becomes.

 

[sun_tzu]

I've seen this touted as Ukraine makes more gains in the war.

Perhaps people are more well versed in geo-politics could shed some light on this.

Is the end of Russia even feesible? By the end I mean the break up of Russia into smaller states.

While I could see some breaking away, a complete Yugoslavia style break up seems farfetched

In realistic terms what would a humiliating retreat mean for Russia?

What are the implications? Would China allow such a thing?

1. Feasible yes sure but at the more unlikely end of the spectrum of outcomes
2. How it would break up is so hard to predict as its such a big country and of course how it collapsed would play a big part as well - but again such a remote possibility its anybody's guess
3. Prior to a humiliting defeat what would Putin or another leader be prepared to do to try to avoid the defeat and retain internal controls?

Also given the amount of Nukes, Nuclear power-stations and other things such as chemical and advanced military systems what would happen if suddenly it broke up had a total currency collapse and you then have potentially dozens of new (nuclear and very well armed) states competing with each other... a disorderly collapse of Russia is a scenario that suits nobody

 

[MoskvaRed]

It’s hard to imagine but very few people saw the end of the USSR coming. There is certainly potential for a fracturing. The obvious one is Kaliningrad/Königsberg. Besides that, you have the huge transfer of wealth from remote, resource-rich regions to Moscow, the burden of conscription falling on the non-Slavic republics within the Federation and, in the background, China with historical grievances dating back to the 19th century.

 

[spiriticon]

The last thing you want is for a nuclear power to break up and create power vacuums and civil war.

I have to agree with this. I'd like the Putin regime over and done with but a real breakup of Russia, all at once, may be very dangerous for us all.

Imagine Ramzan Kadyrov with full control of nuclear weapons.

 

[2cents]

Before Dismantling the Federation: A few things to know about Tatarstan

https://russiapost.info/regions/tatarstan

 

[mu4c_20le]

I have to agree with this. I'd like the Putin regime over and done with but a real breakup of Russia, all at once, may be very dangerous for us all.

Imagine Ramzan Kadyrov with full control of nuclear weapons.

Imagine Kim Jong Il with nuclear weapons. Oh wait..

 

[jackal&hyde]

Balkans had a lot of different ethnicities shoved into a confined space. Add to that the religious component and artificially drawn borders…

I’m not even sure which states are going to form out of the current Russia. Tatarstan would probably be one, they have the numbers, more or less formed national identity, language… probably some state on the Far East, although I’m not sure on what grounds it will form. Chechnya & Dagestan and maybe a few other Caucasian republics can get independence. Can’t think about the rest.

I agree. There is not that much that can "break away".

Russia has been working on propaganda for decades by being this second biggest military, strong this, great that. This war showed the World most of that was nonsense. They are a big nuclear power but in terms of conventional military capability and also industry, they are inferior to France, UK, Germany (if they finally decide to arm) let alone the US or NATO. The country that I can see exploiting this the most is actually China. For a long time the balance of power there was in Russia's favor but after this war, I can see the Chinese gov taking the senior partner position in any and all further deals with Russia.

It's actually insane that putin began this war for all his country has to lose. Makes me think he is either insane, or he fell victim to his own propaganda message. Together with China seeing the true "power" of Russia, the EU is now laser focused on moving away from Russian gas. The future is truly dire for the Kremlin but more importantly, for the nation. Just an all round crazy decision to invade.

 

[harms]

It’s hard to imagine but very few people saw the end of the USSR coming. There is certainly potential for a fracturing. The obvious one is Kaliningrad/Königsberg. Besides that, you have the huge transfer of wealth from remote, resource-rich regions to Moscow, the burden of conscription falling on the non-Slavic republics within the Federation and, in the background, China with historical grievances dating back to the 19th century.

I think that USSR had much more explosive potential with different republics possessing strong national identities and vast history of independence. The same can't be said for the current state of the Russian Federation which is as far from a federation as you can be.

Although with the way that the people of Buryatia have been treated during this mobilization, who knows, maybe the spark will ignite something more significant?

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Unless you have a bunch of warlords ready to seize regional centers of power like it was in China between 1911 and 1949, I don't think that Russia can break up into more countries than the Soviet Union already did. Even that scenario is not desirable considering how nuclear weapons are dispersed across the Russian territory and how each warlord would push his agenda forward should he get those.

Besides, you have to look at some key components of what makes a country successful after they break off from a larger nation/empire - personal liberty, constitutional limits on power, shared values, shared national identity, cooperation, work ethic and self-reliance, and a people prepared to fight for their freedom. How many regions can actually have all of those to become full-fledged nations? Not many.

 

[Erebus]

Again I'm no expert on this, but I've been fascinated in the role China might play in the future. They're clearly becoming the major partner in any relationship. Might they just fancy a few small piece of Russian territory for themselves?, especially against a weakened Russian military and a Russian economy that is becoming even more dependant on China? And since Russia would struggle to find other nations coming to their aid, might they become in effect a vassal state of China? either though small Chinese military incursions, or alternatively through economic necessity? China is likely to do what is best for China, and I suspect many in the west would give them an almost free hand in Russia. Just a thought and might be nonsense but it must have been a scenario discussed by Xi and his advisers at some stage recently. There are, after all, many ways to effectively break a state - geo-politics isn't only about military prowess.

 

[VorZakone]

Russia is a declining power and everyone knows it. America knows it. The EU knows it. Turkey knows it. China knows it. India knows it.

That doesn't mean they'll have 0 influence. But their credibility and reputation has taken a massive hit.

 

[4bars]

Again I'm no expert on this, but I've been fascinated in the role China might play in the future. They're clearly becoming the major partner in any relationship. Might they just fancy a few small piece of Russian territory for themselves?, especially against a weakened Russian military and a Russian economy that is becoming even more dependant on China? And since Russia would struggle to find other nations coming to their aid, might they become in effect a vassal state of China? either though small Chinese military incursions, or alternatively through economic necessity? China is likely to do what is best for China, and I suspect many in the west would give them an almost free hand in Russia. Just a thought and might be nonsense but it must have been a scenario discussed by Xi and his advisers at some stage recently. There are, after all, many ways to effectively break a state - geo-politics isn't only about military prowess.

Russia is a big empty land and its population was aboyt to shrink in the next decade withoyt the war. Drafting 1 million men + immigration + poor economy after the ukranian war will only worsen it. And guess who has a huge population with land needs...

Im inclined to think the same

 

[utdalltheway]

Russia is a big empty land and its population was aboyt to shrink in the next decade withoyt the war. Drafting 1 million men + immigration + poor economy after the ukranian war will only worsen it. And guess who has a huge population with land needs...

Im inclined to think the same

Interesting. I’ve never considered that.
This war/special operation will make them so weak they’ll have nothing left to fight with except their nukes
The Chinese, heck anyone, could just roll right through the place.

 

[Cheimoon]

Russia is a big empty land and its population was aboyt to shrink in the next decade withoyt the war. Drafting 1 million men + immigration + poor economy after the ukranian war will only worsen it. And guess who has a huge population with land needs...

Im inclined to think the same

Does China say it has land needs? Also, the bit of Russia it could directly get into isn't generally very nice for living...

 

[phelans shorts]

Does China say it has land needs? Also, the bit of Russia it could directly get into isn't generally very nice for living...

Theoretically that wouldn’t bother China were they interested in outsourcing some of their “re-education camps” to use the current lands they’re on for the population

 

[Beans]

Russia is a big empty land and its population was aboyt to shrink in the next decade withoyt the war. Drafting 1 million men + immigration + poor economy after the ukranian war will only worsen it. And guess who has a huge population with land needs...

Im inclined to think the same

Chinese demographics are terrible too, their population will halve in a young man’s lifetime at current rates.

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[4bars]

Chinese demographics are terrible too, their population will halve in a young man’s lifetime at current rates.

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True that. The scrapped 1 child policy will bring terrible consequences and the more they will improve their economic situation will reduce the already low birth rate as it happens to the most advanced economies. Still is predicted that they will have 1 billion population around 2060-70. Also, who know what the CCP can pull off to increase birth rates to sustain the elderly

Is very unlikely that anything will happen on that regards as transfer of territories and between such important countries would be because Russia would be in a worse situation than the USSR fall without destroying part of the world. But in a transnational world without national pride and allocating resources, would make sense

Though it would make more sense for India if it would not be because China will be the superpower of the future