The final 7-game stretch: How's it looking?

justsomebloke

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Been looking at the remaining games of the season, and I think there's some reason for optimism.

We're basically competing with Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool.

Our remaining opponents are:

Leeds (H): In the bottom group, both in terms of table position and in terms of form (by which I throughout mean points taken in the past five games).
Chelsea (A): Top 6 in table position, but currently among the worst form in the league
Brentford (H): Mid-table both in table position and form
Liverpool (H): Top 6, but mid-table form
Sunderland (A): Mid-table both in table position and form
Nottingham Forest (H): Bottom group in both table position and form
Brighton (A): Mid-table, but currently second best form in the league

Looking at the other teams, I'd say Leeds, Wolves, Arsenal, Brighton and Sunderland have it easier than us, but we're not really competing with any of those teams. Villa and Spurs about the same as us. Everyone else has a tougher run-in than we do. And - Brentford, Liverpool and Chelsea have the worst remaining schedules of all.

A lot of things are going to have to go wrong here for us to miss out on CL qualification.
 
Injuries/players missing is by far the biggest threat out there for us, not the schedule. I don't fancy us getting 3 points from Leeds game if Martinez, Maguire, De Ligt and Dorgu are all missing. I know some of them are supposed to be back, but I will believe it when I see it.
 
Borys said:
Injuries/players missing is by far the biggest threat out there for us, not the schedule. I don't fancy us getting 3 points from Leeds game if Martinez, Maguire, De Ligt and Dorgu are all missing. I know some of them are supposed to be back, but I will believe it when I see it.
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Leeds is all about attitude. If we go out with the right attitude, we will win, we are clearly better than them - but make no mistake, they will be up for it, we need to match their intensity. Take them for granted, and we lose. Not concerned about having Yoro and Heaven play for this game.
 
Depends how much we get screwed over by refs.

Kicking up a fuss can go either 2 ways, them getting their act together, or be more harsh (not sure what that looks like from the current level).

As long as Carrick can create the "us v them" mentality from it rather than wilting and crying about it, we should be fine either way.
 
We’re in a good position and I really didn’t expect to say that a few months ago when things were looking bleak under Amorim. Think we will finish comfortably 3rd in the end.
 
We’re third so advantage us. Things can change dramatically but we’re playing okay. The other 3 not so much.
 
We need to beat Leeds, Brentford, and Liverpool at home and get a draw at the Bridge. If we can do that, the final few matches won't have any real stress surrounding them.
 
I honestly think 2 wins will secure top 4

I just can’t see Liverpool & Chelsea putting together big winning runs
 
Borys said:
Injuries/players missing is by far the biggest threat out there for us, not the schedule. I don't fancy us getting 3 points from Leeds game if Martinez, Maguire, De Ligt and Dorgu are all missing. I know some of them are supposed to be back, but I will believe it when I see it.
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Leeds seem to be trying to survive by drawing every game 0-0, so as long as we score a goal we should be alright.
 
ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg said:
Leeds is all about attitude. If we go out with the right attitude, we will win, we are clearly better than them - but make no mistake, they will be up for it, we need to match their intensity. Take them for granted, and we lose. Not concerned about having Yoro and Heaven play for this game.
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Do you think we have lost any points recently (Newcastle, Bournemouth, West Ham) because of "not right attitude"?
We are a better team than all of those opponents, but we are easily bullied by runners in midfield and no amount of right attitude is going to make Casemiro and Mainoo run faster to match opponents intensity.
Most games we've been balancing between a win and a draw, so with all those players out I can see a struggle. Especially that Leeds are not far off from relegation zone.

If we get Martinez and Dorgu back I am going confident into the remainig games of the season.
 
The likes of Chelsea and Liverpool will take the game to us because they have to, so we can sit in our block and hit them on the counter. Brighton will likely do the same because it's how they play. That gives us a great chance in those 3 matches.

Forest and Brentford are likely to be the toughest ones, they'll be happy to defend deep which is our kryptonite, we've relied on individual brilliance to score against teams like that, but we have a lot of individual brilliance in our forwards so hopefully they can step up and make the difference again.
 
It would take close to relegation level form to miss out now. If we can't even manage that then we don't deserve to qualify.
 
There's no way Chelsea are getting much more than 6 or 7 points out of City United Liverpool and Brighton and Sunderland both away so I'd say 7 points and CL football is back!
 
If we're saying that 5th place gets Champions League, it really would take a monumental feck-up from here for us to not qualify.

I reckon if we beat one of Chelsea or Liverpool, then we could genuinely qualify with just one more win. Likelihood is we get 3-4 wins out of those games.
 
Home form will see us through. The worst games for me are the two last away games. We should have it wrapped up by then so it shouldn’t matter. We’d have to feck up big time to let the others overtake us.
 
We're not exactly on fire but the form of the chasing pack have dropped off massively in the last few games. Confident we'll get top 4 and confident of top 3 if Martinez is back and hits form.
 
Borys said:
Do you think we have lost any points recently (Newcastle, Bournemouth, West Ham) because of "not right attitude"?
We are a better team than all of those opponents, but we are easily bullied by runners in midfield and no amount of right attitude is going to make Casemiro and Mainoo run faster to match opponents intensity.
Most games we've been balancing between a win and a draw, so with all those players out I can see a struggle. Especially that Leeds are not far off from relegation zone.

If we get Martinez and Dorgu back I am going confident into the remainig games of the season.
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You can't look only at us. Equally important is how our three competitors will fare. And the fact is we don't just have a points lead on all of them, we also have, as imperfect as we've been, by some distance the best recent form: We have ten points from our last five, Liverpool seven, Villa and Chelsea four. On top of that, Chelsea and Liverpool have a much harder stretch run than we do.

Fun facts, which we can worry about if we want to look bleakly at things:
- We have a worse record against the bottom six teams (1.5 pts per game) than we do against either mid-table sides or top 6 sides (both roughly 1.8 pts per game), and we have Leeds and Forest left.
- Sunderland away hasn't been much fun for many teams this season
- Though Brighton is firmly-mid-table and on pace for a significantly worse season than last one, they have the second-best form in the league. Of course, that might not still be the case by the time we meet them in round 38.
 
10 points should be enough to secure CL qualification.

On paper, Liverpool had the toughest remaining fixtures, 6 out of 7 against top half team. Plus the extra CL ties.
 
Offside said:
People should have a go at filling this out:

https://www.worldfootball.net/competition/co91/england-premier-league/standings-calculator/

It's really difficult to find a realistic scenario where we finish 6th. Yes, we play Liverpool and Chelsea, but those 2 also play each other and Liverpool play Villa.
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I gave us losses against Pool and Chelsea, two wins, rest draws. Gave the chasers draws against each other, then all wins bar vs City/Arsenal. We still finished fourth.
 
Chelsea, Liverpool games, form does not count. Liverpool even on their bad day can beat this United team.

After the drubbings they have given United home and away, cannot discount them.
 
justsomebloke said:
You can't look only at us. Equally important is how our three competitors will fare. And the fact is we don't just have a points lead on all of them, we also have, as imperfect as we've been, by some distance the best recent form: We have ten points from our last five, Liverpool seven, Villa and Chelsea four. On top of that, Chelsea and Liverpool have a much harder stretch run than we do.

Fun facts, which we can worry about if we want to look bleakly at things:
- We have a worse record against the bottom six teams (1.5 pts per game) than we do against either mid-table sides or top 6 sides (both roughly 1.8 pts per game), and we have Leeds and Forest left.
- Sunderland away hasn't been much fun for many teams this season
- Though Brighton is firmly-mid-table and on pace for a significantly worse season than last one, they have the second-best form in the league. Of course, that might not still be the case by the time we meet them in round 38.
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Thank you for bringing back some balance and normality to the place, I was beginning to feel a bit too optimistic
 
justsomebloke said:
You can't look only at us. Equally important is how our three competitors will fare. And the fact is we don't just have a points lead on all of them, we also have, as imperfect as we've been, by some distance the best recent form: We have ten points from our last five, Liverpool seven, Villa and Chelsea four. On top of that, Chelsea and Liverpool have a much harder stretch run than we do.

Fun facts, which we can worry about if we want to look bleakly at things:
- We have a worse record against the bottom six teams (1.5 pts per game) than we do against either mid-table sides or top 6 sides (both roughly 1.8 pts per game), and we have Leeds and Forest left.
- Sunderland away hasn't been much fun for many teams this season
- Though Brighton is firmly-mid-table and on pace for a significantly worse season than last one, they have the second-best form in the league. Of course, that might not still be the case by the time we meet them in round 38.
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Again, I am not worried about those games at all - if we’re getting some players back. I am far more concerned about players missing than the schedule. But yeah, not worried too much at the moment.

Liverpool and Chelsea though, real rest for those teams now. I’m glad Villa is keeping distance from them.
 
I think the Chelsea and Liverpool games will actually be easier than the other ones. I think they will be bang up for it and fancy 4 points minimum. Games against relegation candidates are also a worry as Leeds and Forest will pick up unexpected points in the remaining weeks.

Brighton away on the last day needing a result will definitely not be ideal.
 
If we maintain our form as it has been under Carrick we will have it wrapped up in the next month.
 
We should be absolutely fine and aiming for 3rd, based on recent results and performances, and that's accounting for the fact I don't think we've been great since the Spurs game. We've been solid/ok, and I don't think you can even say that about Chelsea, Liverpool or Villa.

Experience from recent years though just means I don't trust us to suddenly not win another game all season.

Its hard to see Chelsea making up 8 points on us in 7 games though in their current form. They've only managed 8 points from their last 7 games
 
Dont lose against Liverpool or Chelsea and we'll be above both at the end I think.

We are seven ahead of Chelsea now - and after the next game possibly 10points. We play Leeds and they play city, then less than a week later we play Chelsea - so just dont lose that one.
We'd be 8/10 points ahead of them with 15 to play for -
Liverpool are also playing Everton the day we play Chelsea - and Everton are more than capable of beating Liverpool these days

Liverpool having to play Chelsea and Villa in the run in also helps

I think we get Top 4 anyway
 
We've got into an awesome position, now about pushing the players in these next 3-4 games and we'll have it wrapped up with a few to spare
 
Foolsgold21 said:
4 wins from the 7 should be enough for at least 5th
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More like 2 wins. With 4 it would be all but impossible for both Liverpool and Chelsea to go above us (they would need to win all but 1 of their remaining 7).

Beat Leeds and we are probably fine.
 
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