Only announced at the begining of match weeks I think. Bet anything we'll get that cnut Atwell one more time
The final 7-game stretch: How's it looking?
- Thread starter justsomebloke
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In the latest edition of the United Hour Podcast, we interview Duncan Drasdo of MUST - covering ticket prices, new stadium, INEOS and what fans should be demanding from our club.
Also, due to technical issues we couldn't put a notice up for the previous episode which was about the game against Bournemouth and other stuff. If you'd like to listen to it, click here.
I did this and ended up with Chelsea finishing 8th
It's hard to see us not making top 5 from here, we're playing one game a week and have such a big points advantage for this stage.
The problem is we have a habit of making things unnecessarily difficult at this club. Most of our games are on a knife edge, we very rarely put up a routine win where we go 2 or 3 goals up and see it out comfortably. We're often needing late goals to win or draw a game, or hanging on for dear life to a one goal lead.
When every game you play is on a knife edge, variance can go against you and it's really not that much of a stretch to see us go 2 or 3 games without a win at some point. If we go 2 or 3 without a win, suddenly we're in a dogfight. We also have to hope the injury situation doesn't get any worse as an injury crisis can strike from nowhere sometimes.
Our away form shown across West Ham, Everton, Newcastle and Bournemouth suggests we really shouldn't go into any away game expecting to win. We have little margin for error in the easier games/home games because I wouldn't back us to win the tricky games as our last 4 away games have shown.
Potential Yoro/Heaven partnership for Leeds concerns me a bit. But if we beat Leeds, Chelsea play City that weekend which will be tough for them to win, we could extend our points lead going into the game against Chelsea.
I think 3 more wins should see us comfortable, and I think we have a good chance of winning 3 of our 4 remaining home games against Leeds, Brentford, Liverpool and Forest. We have a decent chance of beating Sunderland away too because I think they're a bit shit and very overrated.
The problem is we have a habit of making things unnecessarily difficult at this club. Most of our games are on a knife edge, we very rarely put up a routine win where we go 2 or 3 goals up and see it out comfortably. We're often needing late goals to win or draw a game, or hanging on for dear life to a one goal lead.
When every game you play is on a knife edge, variance can go against you and it's really not that much of a stretch to see us go 2 or 3 games without a win at some point. If we go 2 or 3 without a win, suddenly we're in a dogfight. We also have to hope the injury situation doesn't get any worse as an injury crisis can strike from nowhere sometimes.
Our away form shown across West Ham, Everton, Newcastle and Bournemouth suggests we really shouldn't go into any away game expecting to win. We have little margin for error in the easier games/home games because I wouldn't back us to win the tricky games as our last 4 away games have shown.
Potential Yoro/Heaven partnership for Leeds concerns me a bit. But if we beat Leeds, Chelsea play City that weekend which will be tough for them to win, we could extend our points lead going into the game against Chelsea.
I think 3 more wins should see us comfortable, and I think we have a good chance of winning 3 of our 4 remaining home games against Leeds, Brentford, Liverpool and Forest. We have a decent chance of beating Sunderland away too because I think they're a bit shit and very overrated.
Others are definitely going to drop points. I can’t see Chelsea or Liverpool taking anything close to amount of points we do even if he lose a couple of games
I don't think either of these are correct.
Chelsea currently in sixth, on 48 Points, with 7 to go, so they can get to 69. But they have to play Liverpool, so if they did get maximum points, Liverpool, currently on 49, could only get to 67 Points.
So to guarantee fifth place minimum, we would need 13 more points to get to 68. And we play both Liverpool & Chelsea, so only 5 games to pick up those 13 Points.
Luckily there is zero reason to believe either Liverpool or Chelsea will go on a run like that.
I haven’t tried to work it out but maybe people are miscalculating because of the times all four play one/some/all of the others.
If it is 13 (max), less seems realistic given the others don’t look like they’re going on a run of seven wins (or all wins bar against the others). If we beat Chelsea or Liverpool (I’d take two draws), it feels almost odds on especially with Liverpool’s last few games… us, CFC, Villa, Brentford, four of the top seven.
13 is just to Guarantee it, as everything stands right now, if everything went against us.
I don't for one second believe that will be the way it goes. I think we'll get something from both of our games against Liverpool & Chelsea, and end up finishing third at worst. I'm looking up at second.
I took the boring, route, hypothesizing that Cagey Carrick, plays it safe during the run-in, prioritising a CL berth rather than trying to impress his bosses into keeping him on with classic, swashbuckling performances!
Literally taking one(point) for the team!
So I have us drawing 4 games, winning 2 and losing 1 and we still finish 3rd, albeit on goal difference!
Btw Thanks Offside, Great little tool, that's going to get hammered till the end of the season.
Hopefully it's just for the next 4 or 5 games, before the celebratory hammering of a different kind of tool, commences!
Leeds - fighting to avoid relegation (currently in good position)
Chelsea - fighting for top 5
Brentford - fighting for European spot as well
Liverpool - rivals for top 5 too
Sunderland - won't have much to play for by then you'd think, unless they're still close to top 8 places in table
Forest - relegation candidates but we'll see if it's all decided by then
Brighton - European places
Don't think there's a team in league other than Palace that doesn't have something to play for as it stands right now. It's not a disaster schedule but could be really tricky.
Chelsea - fighting for top 5
Brentford - fighting for European spot as well
Liverpool - rivals for top 5 too
Sunderland - won't have much to play for by then you'd think, unless they're still close to top 8 places in table
Forest - relegation candidates but we'll see if it's all decided by then
Brighton - European places
Don't think there's a team in league other than Palace that doesn't have something to play for as it stands right now. It's not a disaster schedule but could be really tricky.
Opta currently predict the final league table as
3. United 66
4. Villa 65
5. Liverpool 60
6. Chelsea 58
https://theanalyst.com/competition/premier-league/table
They list our chance of CL qualification as 85.65% but I believe that's under the assumption only top 4 get UCL. That must shoot up to 95+% when it's officially confirmed 5th also gets CL spot?
3. United 66
4. Villa 65
5. Liverpool 60
6. Chelsea 58
https://theanalyst.com/competition/premier-league/table
They list our chance of CL qualification as 85.65% but I believe that's under the assumption only top 4 get UCL. That must shoot up to 95+% when it's officially confirmed 5th also gets CL spot?
Yeah, 4 wins and 1 draw if we lose to Chelsea and Liverpool is what I calculated too, if the others pick up max points.
Some bookies have us at less than 1% chance to finish outside top five.
there is also a possible scenario that if Liverpool win the CL and Villa win the Europa that the top 7 teams in the EPL will qualify for Champions League. Thats quite the incentive to a mid table team to fight more than usual this time of year, as that would also mean 8th and 9th gets Europa (as City will be in CL meaning no League cup Europa spot this year)and 10th get Conference.
Not sure if you know but if Liverpool finish in the top five and win the CL, the PL doesn't get an extra spot. Liverpool would qualify through their league finish and the spot for winning the CL gets reallocated to a team from another association based on some coefficient. It can't ever be allocated to a team from the same association as the CL winner. Same goes for EL winner's CL spot if they finish in top five. I think this is a new rule but not sure. There's no way for the 6th placed PL team to qualify for the CL unless they win the CL/EL.
If Liverpool/Villa win the CL/EL and finish outside the top five, that's the only way we can get 6/7 teams in the CL. I think that the Europa/Conference League spots get pushed down the PL table though if that's what you mean by extra incentive! Only applies if Villa or Liverpool win in Europe and finish outside the top five though, and doesn't apply for CL spots.
I think he's wrong. This is straight from the horse's mouth:
What happens if the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League winners have already earned a league phase place via their domestic league position?
.. should the Champions League winners have also qualified for the league phase via their domestic league position, the club with the best individual coefficient of all the domestic champions involved in qualifying (the domestic champions of associations 11 to 55*) will enter the league phase directly instead of the original round they had qualified for according to the access list.
Olympiacos qualified for the league phase of the 2025/26 Champions League since 2024/25 winners Paris had both already qualified via their domestic league position.
As current leaders of the Serbian Super League, Crvena Zvezda would, as it stands, take the Champions League winners’ league phase berth should such rebalancing be required. This is because they have the highest coefficient of all the clubs currently top of their domestic leagues from associations 11-55.
https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsl...gue-phase-via-their-domestic-league-position/
Maybe in the scenario that Liverpool and Villa finish 3/4th and win the CL and EL, that the prem might get a 6th place team in there. No idea but they're all unrealistic scenarios anyway.
Yeah, very unlikely to happen, but in that scenario the two CL spots for CL/EL winner get reallocated to the champions of nations outside the top ten associations based on coefficients, rather than going to PL 6th place.
(Everything I've said is of course assuming the PL get it's 5th CL spot, which is almost certain anyway. Otherwise it all still applies but 5th place replaces where I've said 6th.)
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I'm not going to worry about what other clubs do. Carrick will get us over the line with 2 games to spare and give some fringe players a runout against Sunderland and Forest. I wouldn't even mind seeing what Bayandir can do now that he's had six months to think about how to deal with corner kicks.
We need 3 wins. Perhaps 2 if we not losing to Chelsea and Liverpool.
Hopefully Stuart Attwell doesn't ref any of our games
One more draw by an English team and it's a cert, apparently.
Brutal
I'm imagining a montage of him furiously scribbling on a chalkboard and examining the corners of items through a microscope
This.
If we draw with Liverpool and Chelsea we’re sorted.
Taking these fixtures out of it to focus on each team fighting for the CL spots more broadly, we have a huge advantage as Chelsea and Liverpool don’t look like they’re fully invested in playing for their managers* whereas our players very much appear to be.
Brentford will probably finish above Chelsea.
*Head Coaches
It will be very interesting to see if we can get over the line now and not collapse like we did towards the end of Ole's first season.
If we make it then surely Carrick's earned the gig?
If we make it then surely Carrick's earned the gig?
Are they ? Doesn’t look like it !
Even with doomsday results I still had us finishing 5 th.
Annoyingly Spurs stayed up on goal difference.
A bit predictable but hope they’re right with wham but can see possibilities with Brentford + Everton hopefully nicking it over Liverpool.
They probably had Liverpool champions in September
They probably had Liverpool champions in September
This is the very reason that you should not confirm Carrick's permanent appointment until May
Based on the remaining games, I see 4 wins 2 draws and a loss. That’ll put us at 68 pts and a top 4 finish. That’ll put Carrick’s record at a very respectable 11 wins 4 draws and 2 losses. If you look at the prediction thread when he was first appointed, there was plenty of pessimism.
We'll win the ones that are iffy and struggle with the ones that should be no problem.
I really think if we beat Leeds and City beats Chelsea this weekend, there's no way we don't qualify for the Champion's League (as long as 5th place is confirmed). 10 points ahead of Chelsea with six games to play should be as good as guaranteed - even more-so if we don't lose at Stamford Bridge the weekend after. I'd be relatively confident of holding onto top 4 as long as we avoid defeat to Chelsea & Liverpool as well.
However, in terms of us actually having a really strong end to the season, I'm a bit concerned about us actually winning most of these fixtures. I could see us drawing all of the away games, maybe even losing one of them (although if that one is Brighton when we're already confirmed for Champion's League then it's whatever). Brentford have been a bit of a bogey-team while Forest might be fighting for their lives still - hopefully Brentford are already looking like missing out on Champion's League/Europa League and Forest are practically safe when we play them.
I'd take beating Leeds & Brentford and drawing with Chelsea & Liverpool right now though. 63 Points with three games to go should probably see us sew up third. I don't really fancy Villa or ourselves to get much more than 70. At least one of us will probably be closer to the mid-60's.
However, in terms of us actually having a really strong end to the season, I'm a bit concerned about us actually winning most of these fixtures. I could see us drawing all of the away games, maybe even losing one of them (although if that one is Brighton when we're already confirmed for Champion's League then it's whatever). Brentford have been a bit of a bogey-team while Forest might be fighting for their lives still - hopefully Brentford are already looking like missing out on Champion's League/Europa League and Forest are practically safe when we play them.
I'd take beating Leeds & Brentford and drawing with Chelsea & Liverpool right now though. 63 Points with three games to go should probably see us sew up third. I don't really fancy Villa or ourselves to get much more than 70. At least one of us will probably be closer to the mid-60's.
This is my concern too.
I really want to see a strong finish to the season and it not be a case of us scraping over the line. Liverpool and Chelsea in particular are having problems, i hope we grab hold of top 4 rather than them tripping up and us getting there due to their results and not our own.
Each game feels huge, looking for good performances and results through to the end of the season.
We have to at least bank our home games. Leeds, Brentford and Liverpool we should aim to win.
Even if we're not playing as well, we're in better form than all 3 of them so we win them and we're looking good.
So many times we should have beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge only for us to come up short there through a feck up or a shite ref decision etc. but again, they're struggling and we should be beating them there. Only way that changes is if they sack Rosenior and get a new man in before they play us.
Even if we're not playing as well, we're in better form than all 3 of them so we win them and we're looking good.
So many times we should have beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge only for us to come up short there through a feck up or a shite ref decision etc. but again, they're struggling and we should be beating them there. Only way that changes is if they sack Rosenior and get a new man in before they play us.
There is no such thing as an easy win for United, but going into the final 7 games I like our chances of picking up 4 wins and with that, done and dusted. I'd really like to come back to this after the Leeds match. It's not pivotal match in a math sense, but after the long layoff if we can pick up the win here the wind is behind our back with tricky but mostly manageable opponents.
Ironic, how United’s tough start to the seasons fixtures vs Liverpools piss easy one has had the opposite effect than the one expected.
We should beat Leeds and Brentford at home. Chelsea away is definitely winnable aswell.
After that is almost impossible to predict.
If the scousers are still in Europe, they might not be arsed and actually rest players. It becomes a different game if they're out of Europe and their entire season rests on our match.
Forest could still be fighting for every point and might actually be one of the hardest matches. Alternatively, they might be safe and rest players for Europa.
For Brighton, depends if either team has something to play for.
I have United at 3, Chelsea at 7, Liverpool at 8, and Spurs at 18th. I think i am bit biased.I did this and ended up with Chelsea finishing 8th
Pool will be playing for CL qualification next year, don't see how they'd go easy, whether they're out of Europe or not. Plus Slot can't afford many more disappointing results if he wants to keep his job. Maybe his players won't be too keen to make that happen, if anything will work in our favour I think it's more likely that.
If Dorgu somehow recaptures his form pre-injury (I highly doubt that), then we'd finish in top 5 for sure.
I’ve just done those PL predictions from above.
Arsenal
Man City
Man Utd
Aston Villa
Liverpool
EVERTON 6th
Surprised myself
The form table since Michael has room charge has us top. 23 points in 10. Arsenal 21 and City 18.
We are doing very well, you just never know how a break this long will affect us but I think 3rd. If we are still top of the form table I’ll be over the moon.
Arsenal
Man City
Man Utd
Aston Villa
Liverpool
EVERTON 6th
Surprised myself
The form table since Michael has room charge has us top. 23 points in 10. Arsenal 21 and City 18.
We are doing very well, you just never know how a break this long will affect us but I think 3rd. If we are still top of the form table I’ll be over the moon.