The future of transfers?

Discussion in 'Football Forum' started by Shakesey, Jul 17, 2019.

  1. Jul 17, 2019
    #1

    Shakesey Full Member

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    First, if there's been a thread like this, can someone merge it please?

    OK, so - what is the future of transfers?

    We earn more, but we spend more on fees and wages. I don't have figures, but I would think clubs' expenditure is catching up with earnings (especially in Europe). There will come a time when the majority of top clubs simply cannot afford to buy players anymore.

    It is possible that more clubs will target teenagers, and those who blood the youngsters in quicker would be able to make quite a profit when selling them on. Profit from sales might even eclipse other forms of income.

    It is further possible that players who cannot be shifted will see out their contracts more frequently. Players leaving on frees might become more common. This might in turn result in a whole lot of ordinary players earning higher wages at clubs, when compared to those who were purchased. Matching high-earners will push up expenditure even more. And what about that massively expensive purchase? What happens to the club if he gets a career-ending injury? It would hurt the clubs finances even more.

    When will we reach that ceiling people talk about? And what will be the role of agents?

    We have already entered the asylum and football is already deranged. Many points above are already well within reach. Where will it end?
  2. Jul 17, 2019
    #2

    Schmeichel's Cartwheel Full Member

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    I think Wenger's theory of transfer fees essentially being eliminated and players signing shorter year contracts with the signing on fee essentially being the transfer fee going to the player & agent is the future to be honest. Similar to basketball, say Pogba joins Madrid, he signs a 2 year contract with a big signing on fee, then in 2 years he'll get the option of renegotiating a deal with Madrid, whilst also talking to Juve, Bayern, PSG, etc. Every deal will technically be a free transfer.
  3. Jul 17, 2019
    #3

    Shakesey Full Member

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    This sounds really cool, but doesn't it mean players change teams much more frequently? Fans would fall in love with a player and see him move on after 2 years. I know this already happens to an extent. How do basketball fans cope?
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2019
  4. Jul 17, 2019
    #4

    MAME DIOUF 32 Full Member

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    That's pretty much what I was going to say. I didn't realise Wenger had already called it.

    I don't want to see football go in a direction where clubs build a squad for each season and effectively start again every year, but with the big names that's what I think will happen.
  5. Jul 17, 2019
    #5

    MVBDX New Member

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    They're seen as franchises, not clubs... it's horrible, generally speaking, the fans are left with no other choice or don't follow it with as much anticipation anymore, newer fans find it normal as they don't know any better.
  6. Jul 17, 2019
    #6

    do.ob Full Member

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    Clubs will try to smarten up in the transfer market, going for players before they are fully established world beaters and pay more to hold on to players they already got, but I don't see why they would ever enter a model with short term contracts. What you save in transfer fees you probably more than make up in player and agent fees and no one wants to take a risk on a player when he could be gone for free the next moment.
  7. Jul 17, 2019
    #7

    Valencia's Left Foot New Member

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    It sucks for fans of NBA teams for the most part. For instance, kawhi leonard, maybe the best player in the league right now, was with the San Antonio Spurs for six years and won a championship there, then decided he wanted to be in a bigger market, so he faked an injury for an entire season, went to Toronto for a year and won the title there, got Toronto fans super pumped for a repeat, but then quickly bailed on them by signing with the LA Clippers to try to chase another title. It’s onnoxious but creates a ton of off-season press for the league as superstars are changing teams constantly.
  8. Jul 17, 2019
    #8

    Neil_Buchanan Cock'd

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    If I was a top player then I'd just do 12 month contracts.
  9. Jul 17, 2019
    #9

    Valencia's Left Foot New Member

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    Yeah, it’s a player power move. Transfer fees definitely start getting in the way of such a strategy, but if a player is leaving on a free then it makes sense for him to sign on a short term contract if he values freedoms of movement.
  10. Jul 17, 2019
    #10

    UnitedObsession99 New Member

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    If i was a top players agent I'd advise against that! Having 2-3 years left on a contract at all time provides an income safety net in case of serious injury.

    You might say but they have plenty of money and there is truth to that, but they also live rich lifestyles so the ongoing cash requirements are higher and yes they could downgrade cars, houses, yachts, etc, but who at any stage of wealth wants to take a downgrade.

    This said, I'd need to look at stats of career ending/ limiting injuries. And also it depends what is on offer. E.g. a Bale type £600k a week contract ia worth signing up for as long as you can get. Yes the market could move up to a £1m a week, but it's more likely from that position to be a drop down.
  11. Jul 17, 2019
    #11

    giorno Full Member

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    First, no player will want a short term contract, the risk of injury is too great. Second, clubs will strongly resist this if players try

    Release clauses is the answer
  12. Jul 17, 2019
    #12

    Mb194dc Full Member

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    I agree this is likely, transfer fee inflation now means if a player runs their deal down, they can get a huge signing on fee, instead of the transfer fee going to the club. When fees were much lower there wasn't the incentive to do it, now if you're an £100m player, just run down your deal and then demand a £100m contract with the next club, you get your value instead of the selling club. Pretty much a no brainier, injuries aside?

    Rinse and repeat every few years. Players will presumably start refusing to sign contracts longer than 2 or 3 years to do this.
  13. Jul 17, 2019
    #13

    Schmeichel's Cartwheel Full Member

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    Indeed. Aaron Ramsey may have started a trend.
  14. Jul 17, 2019
    #14

    Bestietom Full Member

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    Yes, I think the shorter contracts will be introduced. Players just staying at clubs for the money now.