The most promising side post SAF | And also some stats

[Gandalf Greyhame]

I don't think enough people realize the magnitude of effort - both physical and mental - that has been asked of some key players since the break, and how well these players have delivered in return. I'd like to show a few numbers to debunk a few arguments that are being thrown about to criticize the players and the manager right now. I think we've been absolutely brilliant since the restart - arguably the best form we've shown post SAF. Given the profile and talent of some of the players we have, I firmly believe this is the most promising side we've seen since SAF - even better than the side that won the Europa League and came 2nd under Mourinho.

On fixture congestion, aka the 'games come thick and fast every season' argument:

In 2018/19, GW 30-39 spanned from 10th March through 12th May in which we played 12 games. That's 5.3 days per game.
In 2019/20, we restarted at GW 30 again on 20th June ending on GW 38 on 27th July in which we would have played 11 games. Thats 3.1 days per game.

We had 70% more time between games last season as compared to this one.


On squad fitness, aka the ' our players get knackered too easily' argument:

Minutes played by Man United players since restart:

	Maguire	Bruno	Rashford	Lindelof	AWB	Martial	Greenwood	Pogba	Matic	Shaw	Williams	McTominay	Fred	Ighalo	James	Rest
Spurs	90	90	90	78	90	78	28	27	12	90	0	89	63	12	62	Dalot
Sheffield Utd	90	74	74	90	90	74	74	74	90	90	0	10	0	16	10	TFM
Norwich	120	120	57	0	0	24	57	42	42	120	57	78	78	120	0	Mata
Brighton	90	64	78	90	90	78	90	64	90	64	26	26	0	12	12	Lingard
Bournemouth	90	90	80	46	90	80	75	90	67	90	0	0	23	10	15	Bailly
Villa	90	71	90	90	66	79	79	90	66	90	24	24	19	11	11
Southampton	90	84	90	90	90	90	84	63	90	75	15	10	27	0	10
Palace	90	90	90	90	90	90	62	90	27	0	0	63	0	0	0
Chelsea	90	90	79	90	79	45	35	35	90	0	90	0	55	11	56
West Ham	90	90	85	90	45	90	90	90	90	0	90	0	0	5	0
Total Minutes	930	863	813	754	730	728	674	665	664	619	302	300	265	197	176
% of Total Possible	100	92.79569892	87.41935484	81.07526882	78.49462366	78.27956989	72.47311828	71.50537634	71.39784946	66.55913978	32.47311828	32.25806452	28.49462366	21.1827957	18.92473118

For comparison, look at minutes by Chelsea players since restart:

	Azpi	Willian	Rudiger	Pulisic	Zouma	Mount	Alonso	Giroud	James	Christensen	Barkley	Kante	Kovacic	Jorginho	Tammy	Rest
Villa	90	90	90	35	0	90	90	80	5	90	35	90	55	0	10	Pedro
City	90	90	90	90	0	90	90	62	0	90	73	90	17	0	28	CHO
Leicester	44	78	90	72	90	46	0	0	46	0	44	90	44	0	90	Gilmour
West Ham	90	90	90	90	0	37	90	27	0	90	63	90	53	0	63	Emerson
Watford	90	76	0	90	90	76	0	76	90	90	90	78	0	0	14	RLC
Palace	90	90	0	90	90	90	0	65	90	90	65	0	0	10	25
Sheffield Utd	90	90	45	66	90	45	45	34	75	45	78	0	0	90	90
Norwich	90	90	90	80	90	0	80	85	10	0	23	0	90	90	5
Manchester Utd	90	80	90	0	90	90	90	80	90	0	0	0	85	90	10
Liverpool	90	59	90	31	90	59	88	59	90	0	0	0	90	90	31
Total Minutes	854	833	675	644	630	623	573	568	496	495	471	438	434	370	366
% of Total Possible	94.88888889	92.55555556	75	71.55555556	70	69.22222222	63.66666667	63.11111111	55.11111111	55	52.33333333	48.66666667	48.22222222	41.11111111	40.66666667

Look at the number of minutes most of our players have had - in a row - during this run. We've hardly got the same quality of depth as Chelsea, and that means the likes of Rashford, Bruno and 18-year-old Greenwood are taking on far more responsibility that they should. Clubs with similarly bare squad depth are losing players left, right and centre - look at Bournemouth, Sheffield, Villa or even Leicester - our players have insane fitness as compared to these clubs, Ole has definitely improved our fitness else we would have lost more than just Shaw to injury.

On squad rotation, aka the 'Ole is an idiot for not rotating against the smaller clubs' argument:

Let's look at results when the squad players (players not part of our current stongest XI) started agains the same 'smaller' clubs in the reverse fixtures earlier this season:

Sheffield United (A) : James, Fred, Williams, Pereira, Phil Jones start : 3-3 Draw
Bournemouth (A): James, Fred, McTominay, Pereira start : 1-0 loss
Villa (H): James, Pereira, Fred, Mata, Williams start: 2-2 Draw
Southampton (A): Mata, Pereira, James, McTominay start: 1-1 Draw
Palace (H) : Lingard, James, McTominay start: 1-2 Loss
West Ham (A): Mata, James, Pereira, McTominary start: 2-0 loss.

3/18 points before restart and 14/18 points now. Do you blame Ole for sticking with a team that works and the starting XI's chemistry with each other over squad players who have massively let him down in the past? Looking at how well we've done now, isn't his decision vindicated? In fact the reason we're close to CL spots is because Ole made that call, I'd say. Our squad players are terrible compared to the other top 6 clubs. James, Ighalo and Williams are just not good enough to trust so many crucial minutes with. Even yesterday, if Bowen wasn't tearing Williams a new one and we had Shaw there instead, I'd be more confident of us getting all 3 points. Sure, Ole took a gamble by playing many key players in the FA cup, but who wouldn't if you saw the current Arsenal side in the final?

On form, aka the 'we are still not good enough' argument:

And here's our form table over the last 10 PL games.

1	Man Utd	10	6	4	0	23	7	16	22	DWDWWWWDWD
2	Man City	10	7	0	3	29	6	23	21	LWWLWLWWWW
3	Wolverhampton	10	6	2	2	13	6	7	20	WdWWWLLWDW
4	Chelsea	10	6	1	3	22	17	5	19	DWWWLWWLWL
5	Tottenham	10	5	3	2	16	10	6	18	LDDWLWdWWW
6	Liverpool	10	5	2	3	18	15	3	17	LWdWLWWDLW
7	Burnley	10	4	5	1	9	9	0	17	dDLWWDWDDW
8	Arsenal	10	5	1	4	14	10	4	16	WLLWWWDLWL
9	Southampton	10	4	3	3	14	11	3	15	LLWLWWDDDW
10	West Ham	10	4	2	4	16	13	3	14	WLLLWDLWWD

Every single team drops points, but no one has dropped them less often than us since Bruno joined. In Gameweek 25, when Bruno made his PL debut against Wolves, we were in 7th - 6 points (-2GD) off Chelsea in 4th and 14 points (-21GD) off Leicester in 3rd. Our turnaround since them has been nothing short of remarkable.

On mentality, aka the 'players are too mentally weak' argument:
I agree. We've made ground, but we took our sweet time doing it, and we may still brick it in the Cup Final against Leicester. We look more nervous whenever we are favourites or have to capitalize on dropped points, and look like a different team than the one that works brilliantly as underdogs. But how is that a criticism, isn't that completely expected?

In our starting XI only De Gea and Matic know what it takes to win the Premier League. Greenwood is 18, Rashford for all his time here is still 22 (just like AWB), Martial was a side-character under Mourinho he's stil 24. In Shaw's absence, Williams is 19 and put through immense mental and physical pressure. Ole himself has not won anything as manager, and he's learning on the job. I'm not saying young players can't be winners, I'm saying they take a little time to mature into winners and leaders - and they're doing it far quicker under Ole than anyone else we've had. For instance, in the big games this season. Against Liverpool, City, Cheslea, Arsenal, Spurs and Leicester this season, we have 21/33 points with 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses and GF/GA of 16/7. Not bad for a manager and a team still finding their feet, I'd say.

The current Liverpool team also lost a lot of key games before they won the CL/PL. When you have a young team, it takes time.

---

Irrespective of the result on Sunday (I think we'll get a nervy draw and make it to CL), this is most promising side I've seen since SAF and we should believe in Ole and this team. Hopefully it'll have some very good additions in the coming couple of months as well. I hope these numbers answer some of the daft criticisms being levelled against the team.

 

[Hugh Jass]

I agree.

 

[Eli Zee]

agreed. the team is coming together nicely and with some depth/key areas strengthened over the next 2-3 transfer windows and our young players developing, we will be a very strong team on all fronts.

The future looks bright. Sunday is very important and will impact that future... I hope the players put in a good effort Because I can't imagine what this site will be like if we lose Sunday and Chelsea win. and then if we lose in the Europa League too it will be madness here

 

[AaronRedDevil]

This is definitely turning out to be a very good team and with 2 or 3 more great players in it, it could very well be a PL challenging team.

 

[#07]

Great thread @Gandalf Greyhame.

 

[Infestissumam]

thanks for the effort with all the numbers mate. Certainly brings some perspective, and good to have some balance amongst all the doom and gloom here.

we simply need more depth, the drop off from the first XI to the backups is unbelievable. Bringing in Sancho and Grealish would massively improve us.

 

[AshRK]

Yes positives are there to be seen and this is why I seriously hope we beat or draw Leicester and get the job done as that would mean we can sign Sancho and some quality players.

 

[United58]

Greta post. I hope that Ole sees relying on a consistent XI will burn us out, and fills out our squad this summer (as well as getting Sancho in). One final push for CL football and we should be in a great position to strengthen this summer

 

[AltiUn]

Honestly great thread, I always enjoy perspective threads.

 

[Gandalf Greyhame]

One stat that sticks out is how Maguire has played every single minute of every game so far. 930 minutes in 34 days is no joke. The amount of concentration and coordination required is very taxing - I'm far more forgiving of his Chelsea debacle taking this into context.

 

[Nickelodeon]

This is a great analysis. But the more I see such threads ('We are 3rd' as well), the more I wish that let's get CL football first and then it would be amazing to discuss this. Right now, all I can think of is and if we were to lose at Leicester, for all these stats, we would've choked because now it is in our hands. We've had 2 opportunities to go 3rd and both times we drew at OT. I don't know about you guys but I'm really nervous about Sunday.

 

[Withnail]

I agree. Great Post, let's hope they can finish the job at the weekend.

 

[Skåre Willoch]

Lovely thread. Thanks.

Optimistic about the future.

 

[Random Task]

Well said OP.

 

[roonster09]

Yeah, this is the most promising side, we have few excellent players and also they are all young players. If we can add 3-4 players then we will be in so much better position.

 

[drdoityourself]

An excellent post. Addresses the schedule, Ole's understandable lack of trust in the squad and backs it up with facts. Also creates a positive outlook for the coming months, it is a very exciting team that is being built here, their quality a bit drowned out with a schedule as hectic as possible.

 

[Giggsy13]

It shouldn’t be all doom and gloom with our starting 11, which on average is one of the youngest in the league. The fact we control our own fate this Sunday on top 4 tells you that there is potential here. Squad depth is the major issue, we all know that so hopefully Ole handles that this summer with presumably a bigger summer budget.

 

[arnie_ni]

Highlights what ive been saying for weeks.

We need to improve not only a few in our starting 11 but our squad needs 4 or 5 new players in total as well.

Sancho, grealish, thiago, dvb, partey, cb, whoever. Think we need at least 3 additions to the SQUAD this summer and 3 more next.

 

[Mr Smith]

Good post. This is a good side, and I think it will continue to improve. The mental toughness is the biggest thing for me though. I'm just not convinced this team has it. If Ole can cultivate that over the next season, I'll be a full convert.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Top thread, top post and top poster @Gandalf Greyhame thank you for bringing some much needed positivity to the forum!

 

[P-Nut]

Miles better than all the Doom and gloom around here at the moment.

 

[Church o Choccy]

Great post. I also think people misunderstand the team mentality in the second half against West Ham. We needed to win by 3 clear goals for it to be any better than a draw for us. In the first half you could see us probing for that first one and if it had come from one of the speculative efforts we had in the first 45 I think you'd have seen us chase the 3-0 which would have allowed us to lose by one goal to Leicester and still qualify. Once Pogba has a brainfart and we go 1-0 down just before half time, though, the idea of scoring 4 goals in one half of football seems a little unlikely and not worth risking conceding for.

So once we had the equaliser early on in the second half we didn't really chase more goals. We kept our shape, didn't take too many risks and ended with the point we needed. Because, combined with that, there were a couple of moments where individuals looked a bit sloppy and West Ham played some decent stuff it means most of the internet has decided we were awful and it's symptomatic of a giant decline. In fact, once Greenwood equalised the brief was just to not lose. A second and even third goal offered us no real advantage.

 

[Thisistheone]

Superb stuff from Maguire.

 

[Rafaeldagold]

Great post. I also think people misunderstand the team mentality in the second half against West Ham. We needed to win by 3 clear goals for it to be any better than a draw for us. In the first half you could see us probing for that first one and if it had come from one of the speculative efforts we had in the first 45 I think you'd have seen us chase the 3-0 which would have allowed us to lose by one goal to Leicester and still qualify. Once Pogba has a brainfart and we go 1-0 down just before half time, though, the idea of scoring 4 goals in one half of football seems a little unlikely and not worth risking conceding for.

So once we had the equaliser early on in the second half we didn't really chase more goals. We kept our shape, didn't take too many risks and ended with the point we needed. Because, combined with that, there were a couple of moments where individuals looked a bit sloppy and West Ham played some decent stuff it means most of the internet has decided we were awful and it's symptomatic of a giant decline. In fact, once Greenwood equalised the brief was just to not lose. A second and even third goal offered us no real advantage.

We didn’t keep our shape at all. We had no shape- West Ham were a threat until the end.

Also a win would’ve been much better to drag Chelsea into the top 4 equation, as a loss against Leicester but Chelsea drawing to Wolves would’ve put us top 4- not anymore as we’d need Chelsea to lose now if we lost to Leicester.

It’s fine being positive, but don’t be delusional on this thread thinking we’re great as we really aren’t unfortunately as the last few performances have shown

 

[TMDaines]

Irrespective of the result on Sunday (I think we'll get a nervy draw and make it to CL), this is most promising side I've seen since SAF and we should believe in Ole and this team. Hopefully it'll have some very good additions in the coming couple of months as well. I hope these numbers answer some of the daft criticisms being levelled against the team.

It's either this team or the one at the end of Mourinho's first season. That was a season where our league final standing really underplayed that we were a good team. So many games we dominated at home and somehow only left with a draw. The Zlatan injury really cost us that summer, as we basically had to invest most of our spending in another centre forward, who I don't think even ensured parity. Over the next two years after buying Lukaku, we then wasted all that money on Sanchez, and the other signings were never going to be game changers (Lindelof, Matic, Dalot, Fred).

The important thing is that we build on this season, but I'm a bit worried at how few links there are to us and decent players. It feels like Sancho or nothing.

 

[Siorac]

It's a promising side because we now have players who aren't just good on paper but are actually performing regularly and making the most of their talent (Martial, Rashford, Fernandes, Greenwood). The squad's age is good, so there's a decent basis to build on.

But I'd be wary of putting much stock in unbeaten runs and form tables. We were 7-2-1 from the first 10 games of 2017/18 and that team fell apart spectacularly the very next season (and didn't pull up any trees in 17/18 either). We also had a great run after Ole's appointment and that led to nowhere. We'll see if this one is any different, or if it's just like one of Arsenal's great runs in the past when they were basically out of contention for everything.

 

[Church o Choccy]

We didn’t keep our shape at all. We had no shape- West Ham were a threat until the end.

Also a win would’ve been much better to drag Chelsea into the top 4 equation, as a loss against Leicester but Chelsea drawing to Wolves would’ve put us top 4- not anymore as we’d need Chelsea to lose now if we lost to Leicester.

It’s fine being positive, but don’t be delusional on this thread thinking we’re great as we really aren’t unfortunately as the last few performances have shown

Yeah, fair - I wasn't trying to make out that the second half was some exceptional display of professionalism. Like I say, there was individual sloppiness mixed in, too, and you're right to say we've dropped off a little the last couple of weeks (for reasons the OP highlights well).

My point was more in response to takes I'd read on here and elsewhere that seemed to bemoan the fact we weren't chasing a second goal or "couldn't even beat West Ham". There was no incentive to, and I think that should be taken into account in judging our second half performance. We came out after the break needing a goal and got one. From then on the priority wasnot to push for a second.

 

[Zlatan 7]

Great opening post!

 

[BazzaBear]

Wonderfully put, and well backed up.

I think the utter pessimism we're seeing at the moment is down to two effects:

The people who are shitting the bed because things aren't going totally perfectly.

The people who love nothing better than laying in to the team they supposedly support- or subsets of that team (be it manager or particular players) that they apparently hate.

 

[AltiUn]

Superb stuff from Maguire.

I have a lot of time for Maguire really, he's Solskjaer's first name on the team sheet and captain for a reason. Even if he has made some mistakes it's understandable with just how much football he's played this season, 4572 minutes, think he's only missed 5 or 6 games this season.

 

[Strelok]

Well said OP.

I agree but would like to add a bit on the players mentality.

Yes they look a bit nervous but it's ok as they're basically quite young and as you said they haven't won a big thing yet. However just a year ago if we're 1-0 down our players would just role over and die. Some of them looked like they ain't give a sht. Now they don't lose heart and keep fighting to the very end. It's definitely a big improvement imo.

And imo you forgot to mention another very important change, in our culture. No longer the mercenary one but imo we can see a bit of our old United there. That's a very big thing and much more important than even the results or squad improvement imo.

 

[DevilsOwn]

Great post OP.
Some perspective is really necessary among all the doom and gloom.

I hope we do the required job on Sunday and finish in top 4.

 

[Giggsy13]

Good post. This is a good side, and I think it will continue to improve. The mental toughness is the biggest thing for me though. I'm just not convinced this team has it. If Ole can cultivate that over the next season, I'll be a full convert.

Part of the mental toughness issues are that the players we rely on to score goals and make an impact on the game are so young. The average age of our starting forwards is roughly 22 years old. There’s also a large drop off in impactful leadership and experience in the squad after De Gea, Matic and Maguire. Pogba isn’t a leader, Bruno just joined us but has that potential and our starting FBs are 23 and 25, respectively with AWB having limited experience in big moments. We want a young and exciting team but have to accept the growing pains associated with that. Hopefully they can learn from these recent setbacks and understand what it’s going to take to make us true contenders again. Adding experience like Thiago or Willian to the squad would be a major boost as well.

 

[Rolaholic]

Glad to see some with a bit more perspective on here...

The meltdowns while we're heading to a top 4 finish with as good a squad foundation as we've had post-Fergie has been mind numbing.

We get CL football and we'll be able to build on that so that Ole feels more comfortable rotating the side. Our squad options are bare thin in comparison to the likes of Citeh, Liverpool and Chelsea and it's been exposed during this torris run of games.

Next season we won't have to worry about 10 games in 30 days and we should be better equipped for congested fixture schedules in terms of squad depth after the window.

There's quite a fair bit to look forward to it if we can take care of business Sunday, we've got an exciting young squad finally for a change

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Quality analysis, @Gandalf Greyhame

 

[Gator Nate]

Thanks for posting all that @Gandalf Greyhame ! Good stuff and dead-on right.

The mentality since the restart has been better. But that's part and parcel with a young squad. I really feel the EL is something we need to win. That will put some steel where there isn't any right now. They lack confidence because nothing has paid off just yet. It's all part of the culture that has been spoken of so much. That winning culture has gone missing and it isn't something you just bring back with the snap of the fingers. If you could just import it with transfers, LvG and the Recycled One would have been much more successful.

There's a lot to look forward to in the coming months.

 

[glazed]

Do you blame Ole for sticking with a team that works and the starting XI's chemistry with each other over squad players who have massively let him down in the past? Looking at how well we've done now, isn't his decision vindicated?

This is where your finely constructed argument falls to bits. He played exhausted players in an FA cup match and now they're going into the match that decides the season dead on their feet. There's no getting away from how incompetent and stupid that was. If we miss top four, that's why.

 

[ThinkTank@Cafe]

Monumental. OP is the model for all of us of how to express an opinion. Thank you.

 

[bsCallout]

An excellent post. Addresses the schedule, Ole's understandable lack of trust in the squad and backs it up with facts. Also creates a positive outlook for the coming months, it is a very exciting team that is being built here, their quality a bit drowned out with a schedule as hectic as possible.

This is one thing I don't get about the criticism of Ole, he is so aware of the drop off in quality and will therefore attempt to address it that he doesnt want to risk rotating too much.

I'd be more concerned if he rotated plenty knowing the players he was putting in weren't good enough.

Thanks for the post OP.

 

[glazed]

Monumental. OP is the model for all of us of how to express an opinion. Thank you.

Is it though? You can prove anything with stats. Minutes played is not that relevant unless it's understood alongside training techniques and style of play. David de Gea has played more minutes but is less tired than Marcus Rashford for example. For obvious reasons. He stands still for 88 minutes.

The tiredness is something you can see with your eyes. Not with a spreadsheet.