Great thread and great OP.
Nice to see a positive thread around to balance the scale a bit vs the usually more negative threads. Neutral threads are also getting rarer in the United forum section.
On squad rotation, aka the 'Ole is an idiot for not rotating against the smaller clubs' argument:
Let's look at results when the squad players (players not part of our current stongest XI) started agains the same 'smaller' clubs in the reverse fixtures earlier this season:
Sheffield United (A) : James, Fred, Williams, Pereira, Phil Jones start : 3-3 Draw
Bournemouth (A): James, Fred, McTominay, Pereira start : 1-0 loss
Villa (H): James, Pereira, Fred, Mata, Williams start: 2-2 Draw
Southampton (A): Mata, Pereira, James, McTominay start: 1-1 Draw
Palace (H) : Lingard, James, McTominay start: 1-2 Loss
West Ham (A): Mata, James, Pereira, McTominary start: 2-0 loss.
3/18 points before restart and 14/18 points now. Do you blame Ole for sticking with a team that works and the starting XI's chemistry with each other over squad players who have massively let him down in the past? Looking at how well we've done now, isn't his decision vindicated? In fact the reason we're close to CL spots is because Ole made that call, I'd say. Our squad players are terrible compared to the other top 6 clubs. James, Ighalo and Williams are just not good enough to trust so many crucial minutes with. Even yesterday, if Bowen wasn't tearing Williams a new one and we had Shaw there instead, I'd be more confident of us getting all 3 points. Sure, Ole took a gamble by playing many key players in the FA cup, but who wouldn't if you saw the current Arsenal side in the final?
No problem with the other well-analysed parts at OP...
But this one seems trying to point out the reasons we lost those 6 games are because of the squad players. Just 6 games? Some of our strongest 11 minus Bruno also played in those games.
No other games?
where
the squad players played crucial or good roles in winning the games vs the small teams? Surely there's plenty enough to point that, otherwise to the points made in OP.
Apologies if I misunderstood, but the point (seemingly blaming the squad players for those losses) made there at OP seems to be too bias.
In contrast, a more neutral points may be like this..
A) Seems to point out Ole is too afraid of taking slight calculated risks because he just don't trust some of his players or still do not understand some of his players.
I do get most of the squad players are clearly not reliable enough. However.. next to the strongest 11 are arguably Fred, McT (but only vs top teams, not used vs Chelsea) and Ighalo being the the closest.
But Ole is just reluctant to start them in more games, or wrongly select.
eg. 1) no McTominay against Chelsea eventhough the stats backed that having McTominay, we never lost against the top teams + Leicester + Wolves, he chose Fred to partner Matic instead.
2) afraid to try starting Ighalo in league games even when Rashford played poorly, or Greenwood getting fatigued. The stats showed Ighalo always scored when he started games, even if that's against weak-weak teams, and in league games, he tend to get close to scoring, always visible.
3) Fred instead of Matic vs small teams. Haven't calculate the stats yet but possibly there isn't much difference stats and points wise between only either one playing. Maybe. Goals conceded less maybe with Fred than with Matic.
B) I do get his fear of losing top 4 ever since the Spurs game, but doing this slight rotation and adjustment shouldn't be too hard and is calculated well enough.
Eg. 1)
Fred + strongest 10 such as against small teams that are known for their good organised high press, Matic is a risk,surely playing Fred can be a better option. Ole seemingly just don't trust nor rate him enough to start over Matic. Fred + Bruno + Pogba looks promising in the one game they were fielded together.
2)
McT + strongest 10/9/8/7/6 such as vs Chelsea, Fred-McT or McT-Matic are a lot better and safer options. Pogba getting bench there is fair.
3) Strongest 10 + any eg. Pogba play with Bruno benched for one or two games only vs small teams. Surely this is more than enough. He just can't trust Bruno-less team at all. Best game to try this is the cup game. vs Norwich.
4)
Ighalo + strongest 10. The only reason why he don't try this is to continue starting Rashford always at LW. Ighalo with Martial at LW and Greenwood at RW would suffice vs some of the small teams. Remember the games where Rashford didn't play well and also previously? Putting Rash at RW to rest Greenwood with Martial LW and Ighalo at CF can also work.
5)
Shift in formation to three midfield? to rest Bruno once or twice vs small teams. Bruno must always play because of his insistence on using 4231 formation, no Bruno = stubborn system doesn't work.
------
So those
specific poor rotation of player management in
some games is the problem.
Which is down to his stubborn system, lack of trust, lack of understanding in his players and fear in losing top 4.
To be fair, to a huge extent, Ole's decisions are understandable and reasonable, but then, some games are just pushing the limit of player's fitness needlessly and doesn't show good calculation of risks nor trusts in Fred/McT/Ighalo. eg. situation of CBs and FBs do make sense and acceptable for no rotation, but situation of midfielders especially Bruno's and front three forwards, are not.
Sticking with the best 11 are generally correct, but few games, there should be good calculated slight rotations of 2-3 players only.
Another point that people tend to made is the slow response by Ole.
eg. the Spurs game and the Chelsea game are the best high-profile games as examples. Clearly the first tenth minutes are just not working, unfortunately Ole delay in making changes. Pogba could've sub in earlier vs Spurs, while James could've been subbed out earlier vs Chelsea and change of system could've been made earlier vs Chelsea. He likes to waste time which cost us to lose more chances to equalize or get more goals. That two games for examples, our threats in scoring do increase as the latter subs making growing impacts, but the final whistles was blown.
