The next 12 games before City

foolsgold

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On paper we seem have got a lot of our toughest fixtures out of the way early this season, and we could be starting to build some momentum. Before hosting City in mid January we have 12 league games. Can't take anything for granted but is it wildly unrealistic to be hoping for 25 points out a possible 36 ? Spurs away will be tricky for sure, but otherwise, 9 of these 12 teams are presently in the bottom half of the table. Assuming some good fortune with injury, I see not reason why we can't firmly put ourselves in a Champions league spot. Realistic or delusional ?

Brighton (H)
Forest (A)
Spurs (A)
Everton (H)
Palace (A)
West Ham (H)
Wolves (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Villa (A)
Newcastle (H)
Leeds (A)
Burnley (A)
 
foolsgold said:
On paper we seem have got a lot of our toughest fixtures out of the way early this season, and we could be starting to build some momentum. Before hosting City in mid January we have 12 league games. Can't take anything for granted but is it wildly unrealistic to be hoping for 25 points out a possible 36 ? Spurs away will be tricky for sure, but otherwise, 9 of these 12 teams are presently in the bottom half of the table. Assuming some good fortune with injury, I see not reason why we can't firmly put ourselves in a Champions league spot. Realistic or delusional ?

Brighton (H)
Forest (A)
Spurs (A)
Everton (H)
Palace (A)
West Ham (H)
Wolves (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Villa (A)
Newcastle (H)
Leeds (A)
Burnley (A)
Click to expand...

Hard to say how we fare because we don't know what form we will be in, how many injuries we may accrue between now and then, and how AFCON will affect us in Dec & Jan. Not to forget we are losing the entire right side of the lineup when Mbeumo, Amad, and Maz leave.

Assuming current form and no further injuries plus the return of Licha next month, I think we should be able to take anywhere between 20-28 points from the fixtures.
 
The Afcon will unfortunately effect us.

There’s a lot of positives.

Cuhna still hasn’t shown us what he can do and I’d expect that.
Bruno can fill the void of Embuemo with Dalot switching.
With Shaw an option (short term on the left).

Sesko will slowly start to settle and show what he’s got.

The Afcon creates a Mainoo chance too and after Bruno’s performance yesterday I do doubt him in central midfield.

Licha coming back is also a massive boost and I also wonder if we’d have lost to Arsenal with Lammens in goal. We are a Bruno penalty miss away (Fulham) from being joint 3rd so there is some hope.
 
No easy games in the Premier League.

If we can somehow put together a run, it'll bode well. But I see a lot of teams that have the potential to cause us problems in that list.
 
Spurs, Palace, Brighton and Bournemouth who I genuinely thought would be fighting a relegation battle will cause problems. Compared to our opening 8 fixtures I think on paper it’s easier and if Amorim wants to prove he’s at the level needed now is the time to show it.
 
These are the kind of games we really struggle with in my view. We put in a shift against Arsenal and Liverpool but get turned over time and again by the likes of Palace and Bournemouth (not specifically them but these so called mid-table clubs). I hope we do well but I think we should expect this to be a very challenging set of fixtures.
 
We're only 6 points off Stoke. 2 points off 3rd. The table is condensed. For once, we are closer to the top than the relegation zone!

I also think the freshness of no European football will help. Who knows, maybe Europe isn't a pipe dream.
 
YikesSchmeics said:
We're only 6 points off Stoke. 2 points off 3rd. The table is condensed. For once, we are closer to the top than the relegation zone!

I also think the freshness of no European football will help. Who knows, maybe Europe isn't a pipe dream.
Click to expand...
Who knows, maybe we can pull off a Leicester and win the thing! No European football and no league cup, literally just 30 more league games this season and an fa cup run potentially.
 
Brighton (H) - W
Forest (A) - W
Spurs (A) - L
Everton (H) - W
Palace (A) - D
West Ham (H) - W
Wolves (A) - W
Bournemouth (H) - D
Villa (A) - L
Newcastle (H) - W
Leeds (A) - W
Burnley (A) - W

26pts which I think would be an excellent return, probably to optimistic but we’ll put a run together at some point.
 
one game at a time for me. As much as yesterday was a massive boost, it's teams like Brighton who have had the measure of us home and or away in recent seasons.

Cuhna, I'm liking what I see despite the goals, (they will come). He' carries the ball well and brings us options. Sesko will only get better the more rhythm he gets. Lammens, another one who will 100% for sure make some mistakes in the coming weeks and months but immediately you can see he brings an air of quiet confidence to the back line. Licha, once match fit and unto speed will bring a bit more leadership and aggression on the pitch.

Last thing I want is more from Amorim. He has his detractors but I want him to be a little less honest and little more assertive in his dealings with the media

Top 4 is possible with this squad, finishing 10th is not out of the question either. Hard work starts Saturday because these are the teams we need to be getting 4 to 6 points out of this season to get back into Europe.
 
foolsgold said:
On paper we seem have got a lot of our toughest fixtures out of the way early this season, and we could be starting to build some momentum. Before hosting City in mid January we have 12 league games. Can't take anything for granted but is it wildly unrealistic to be hoping for 25 points out a possible 36 ? Spurs away will be tricky for sure, but otherwise, 9 of these 12 teams are presently in the bottom half of the table. Assuming some good fortune with injury, I see not reason why we can't firmly put ourselves in a Champions league spot. Realistic or delusional ?

Brighton (H)
Forest (A)
Spurs (A)
Everton (H)
Palace (A)
West Ham (H)
Wolves (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Villa (A)
Newcastle (H)
Leeds (A)
Burnley (A)
Click to expand...
The funny thing is if you said we would lose to Liverpool and City, draw with Arsenal, Fulham and Brentford and win the other 3, most people would have been happy with that. That run would have left us on 12 points. We're on 13 and are considered to have had a bad start.
 
One game a week, we just beat Liverpool at Anfield and deserved it. They should have the confidence to win every match. Go for maximum points and then beat city.
 
It's the kind of run we should be getting 20+ from.

24 or more would be very good. 16 or less very bad.

We will need to see a run of form that we have not come close to seeing under Amorim.
 
Brighton (H) Win 3 points
Forest (A)
Spurs (A)
Everton (H) Win 3 points
Palace (A)
West Ham (H) Win 3 points
Wolves (A) Win 3 points
Bournemouth (H) Win 3 points
Villa (A)
Newcastle (H) Win 3 points
Leeds (A) Win 3 points
Burnley (A) Win 3 points

For me, our home form is very good. I can see we win all our home games above. 5 home games win.

We have 3 "easy" away game in Wolves, Leeds and Burnley. 3 away win.

So, minimum we will get 24 points.

The rest of the games Forest, Spurs, Villa and Palace are half fight .
 
These are the type of games we’ve come unstuck in time and time again, so I’ll be very interested to see how we get on in these fixtures. Go on a winning run and I’ll start to believe we’re finally on the right track.
 
foolsgold said:
On paper we seem have got a lot of our toughest fixtures out of the way early this season, and we could be starting to build some momentum. Before hosting City in mid January we have 12 league games. Can't take anything for granted but is it wildly unrealistic to be hoping for 25 points out a possible 36 ? Spurs away will be tricky for sure, but otherwise, 9 of these 12 teams are presently in the bottom half of the table. Assuming some good fortune with injury, I see not reason why we can't firmly put ourselves in a Champions league spot. Realistic or delusional ?

Brighton (H)
Forest (A)
Spurs (A)
Everton (H)
Palace (A)
West Ham (H)
Wolves (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Villa (A)
Newcastle (H)
Leeds (A)
Burnley (A)
Click to expand...
Villa away is also hard. They started the season of bad but like us have gained some momentum.
 
There are some very winnable games in that list, but also some tough fixtures, and this team is very unpredictable. We might beat Spurs away and then lose to Everton at home.

The test for this team is to show up every game and build some momentum. A win like yesterday's gets forgotten so quickly, if we can't properly follow up on it.
 
Brighton (H) - Win
Forest (A) - Win
Spurs (A) - Draw
Everton (H) - Win
Palace (A) - Draw
West Ham (H) - Win
Wolves (A) - Win
Bournemouth (H) - Win
Villa (A) - Draw
Newcastle (H) - Draw
Leeds (A) - Win
Burnley (A) - Win

8 wins / 4 draws - 28 points.

Would leave around 37 points at the half way mark - same again in the second half of the season should secure a top 4 finish.
 
foolsgold said:
On paper we seem have got a lot of our toughest fixtures out of the way early this season, and we could be starting to build some momentum. Before hosting City in mid January we have 12 league games. Can't take anything for granted but is it wildly unrealistic to be hoping for 25 points out a possible 36 ? Spurs away will be tricky for sure, but otherwise, 9 of these 12 teams are presently in the bottom half of the table. Assuming some good fortune with injury, I see not reason why we can't firmly put ourselves in a Champions league spot. Realistic or delusional ?

Brighton (H)
Forest (A)
Spurs (A)
Everton (H)
Palace (A)
West Ham (H)
Wolves (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Villa (A)
Newcastle (H)
Leeds (A)
Burnley (A)
Click to expand...
Why just next 12 games why not the whole campaign?

It's fantasy to do such long term predictions as each game can have impact on the next one. We can only take one game at the time. Injuries, form, luck play its part. Also that we showed we can get a result when playing a low block and hitting teams on the counter will not impact our problems when we have to expand our play bring the game to opposition as we are very vulnerable in transitions. Our weak midfield will still be weak, same as our left flank, Bruno will still be wasteful, Casemiro will still be able to do 60-70 minutes max etc. And we don't have anyone outside occasionally Mainoo who can keep the ball in possession under pressure and distribute ball with quality in the middle of the park. Until this changes I don't have big expectations of this season. I hope we can bring at least one midfielder in January to speed up the process.

For example Brighton just beaten Newcastle they will be no pushovers. We will have to be at our best to turn them over. Outside of a few bottom teams there is no easy game in EPL. I would say you have approximately at least 12 teams that can win game against anyone in the league on their day. And we play at least 6 of those in the next 12 matches, also Forrest who will just have a fresh manager against us so no easy games. At least it is exciting unlike a few other leagues where you have 1-2 or max 2-4 contenders each year for the title.
 
I don’t want to get my hopes up after yesterday personally.

Our next 3 games will be the real tester - Brighton (H), Forest (A), Spurs (A). We’ve not won a single point from these very fixtures in the last 2 seasons.

Get 4 points from those three and I’ll be happy and more optimistic for a decent season.
 
Camy89 said:
I don’t want to get my hopes up after yesterday personally.

Our next 3 games will be the real tester - Brighton (H), Forest (A), Spurs (A). We’ve not won a single point from these very fixtures in the last 2 seasons.

Get 4 points from those three and I’ll be happy and more optimistic for a decent season.
Click to expand...
Amorim's first real test?
 
I hate these threads. Nothing good ever comes from them.

Beat Brighton first and then we will see
 
One game at a time and all that, but yes it's a great opportunity,
 
foolsgold said:
On paper we seem have got a lot of our toughest fixtures out of the way early this season, and we could be starting to build some momentum. Before hosting City in mid January we have 12 league games. Can't take anything for granted but is it wildly unrealistic to be hoping for 25 points out a possible 36 ? Spurs away will be tricky for sure, but otherwise, 9 of these 12 teams are presently in the bottom half of the table. Assuming some good fortune with injury, I see not reason why we can't firmly put ourselves in a Champions league spot. Realistic or delusional ?
Click to expand...
Definitely delusional. We haven’t shown any sort of consistency under this manager and I won’t get my hopes up until he wins a couple more games. Every single time we win it’s the fecking hope that kills ya. And we revert being shit literally the next game.
 
foolsgold said:
On paper we seem have got a lot of our toughest fixtures out of the way early this season, and we could be starting to build some momentum. Before hosting City in mid January we have 12 league games. Can't take anything for granted but is it wildly unrealistic to be hoping for 25 points out a possible 36 ? Spurs away will be tricky for sure, but otherwise, 9 of these 12 teams are presently in the bottom half of the table. Assuming some good fortune with injury, I see not reason why we can't firmly put ourselves in a Champions league spot. Realistic or delusional ?

Brighton (H)
Forest (A)
Spurs (A)
Everton (H)
Palace (A)
West Ham (H)
Wolves (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Villa (A)
Newcastle (H)
Leeds (A)
Burnley (A)
Click to expand...
It’s funny cos as you say on paper a lot of our toughest games are gone. Arsenal city Liverpool Chelsea.

But you look at that list on paper and there’s teams there who have routinely been wiping the floor with us.
Spurs five in a row, Bournemouth consecutive 3-0’s at Old Trafford. Brighton beaten us in 7/8 league games iirc and then Palace beat us regularly now too.

This is why I kinda didn’t look at those Arsenal city games etc as “getting tough games out the way”. Our record has actually been stronger against those teams recently (bar Liverpool) than it has Brighton, palace, spurs etc.
 
foolsgold said:
On paper we seem have got a lot of our toughest fixtures out of the way early this season, and we could be starting to build some momentum. Before hosting City in mid January we have 12 league games. Can't take anything for granted but is it wildly unrealistic to be hoping for 25 points out a possible 36 ? Spurs away will be tricky for sure, but otherwise, 9 of these 12 teams are presently in the bottom half of the table. Assuming some good fortune with injury, I see not reason why we can't firmly put ourselves in a Champions league spot. Realistic or delusional ?

Brighton (H)
Forest (A)
Spurs (A)
Everton (H)
Palace (A)
West Ham (H)
Wolves (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Villa (A)
Newcastle (H)
Leeds (A)
Burnley (A)
Click to expand...
Ride or die for Amorim this. If ever there was a run of games to get into the rythm and get some momentum, this is it.

25 points from these games would put us on pace for a 70+ point season, and give Amorim and the squad a much needed break from the constant bashing. See you in January boys!

PS: Looks like you’re missing Wolves at OT on Dec. 30th in your list btw
 
The aim this season is to finish in the European football places, so somewhere in the 5th-7th range.

Teams that finish in those positions typically drop points in about half their games. For example last season the 5th-7th placed teams all won 50-52% of their games. So far this season, we're on 50%.

So my guess is that we will continue to be very inconsistent, and drop quite a lot of points over this run. But that's fine, as long as we're still in line with the relatively low standard needed to qualify for Europe.

It wouldn't feel like we're doing well if we're drawing/losing every other game, but that's more or less all you actually need to do.
 
Steve 007 said:
The Afcon will unfortunately effect us.

There’s a lot of positives.

Cuhna still hasn’t shown us what he can do and I’d expect that.
Bruno can fill the void of Embuemo with Dalot switching.
With Shaw an option (short term on the left).

Sesko will slowly start to settle and show what he’s got.

The Afcon creates a Mainoo chance too and after Bruno’s performance yesterday I do doubt him in central midfield.

Licha coming back is also a massive boost and I also wonder if we’d have lost to Arsenal with Lammens in goal. We are a Bruno penalty miss away (Fulham) from being joint 3rd so there is some hope.
Click to expand...
Yep, Bruno as a 10 instead of Mbeumo, Sesko in form up front. Maino-Case midfield. Hopefully at least one of Dorgs Dalot hit some sort of form - this is something which can cripple us a bit but Cunha firing on all cylinders and Mount available as well for selection will be key. Hopefully RUbem can manage minutes well, so the key players can get into form.
 
sullydnl said:
The aim this season is to finish in the European football places, so somewhere in the 5th-7th range.

Teams that finish in those positions typically drop points in about half their games. For example last season the 5th-7th placed teams all won 50-52% of their games. So far this season, we're on 50%.

So my guess is that we will continue to be very inconsistent, and drop quite a lot of points over this run. But that's fine, as long as we're still in line with the relatively low standard needed to qualify for Europe.

It wouldn't feel like we're doing well if we're drawing/losing every other game, but that's more or less all you actually need to do.
Click to expand...
No doubt we will lose points. Some ropinions calling for Amorim's head very early-on after handful of fixtures proved that the pressure can build very quickly. Reality is that we should totally expect to drop points.

We are not a well oiled machine yet. Still lacking 2nd WB (Dalot's / Dorgu bottom table quality), 2CMs (Bruno and Casemiro (midtable at best).
Sesko seems also rather low midtable quality at the moment up front. (Expectedly as he's young and new to the league). CBs I think we are around top6 quality overall but hardly assured top4. GK is still ? So we are expected to have difficult games.

At the same time in the long-term we should be able to get enough points to easily beat Sunderland, Bournemouth, CP in the table and contest Chelsea and Spurs in the top4. Don't think they are all that good honestly, they will lose points too.
 
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