The potential relegation fire sale- 22/23

[NoPace]

If you took Fred and magically made him a good passer, taught him how to shoot, and he became an expert at dead ball situations, he’d be JWP. People ask if he would solve our perennial midfield quandary, well, he’d be an upgrade over 3 players who feature regularly, so I’d call it a net gain.

JWP starting for Brazil? Ridiculous.

He doesn't dribble, use his left foot, get on the ball enough and can't tackle. There's a reason England badly needed a #8 to compliment Bellingham and Rice and it hasn't been JWP. He's this generation's Morten Gamst Pedersen. Good Prem starter for a mid-table side where winning 4 or 5 games a year while weakening the team in other regards is still a positive result for a team just looking to get 12 wins and survive, possibly a useful sub for the right big 6 team, barely used squad player for others, but that's it.

Midfield isn't striker. You can't just hit a good ball every 30 minutes and you've done the job.

 

[bosnian_red]

I’m intrigued by Paqueta.

He was arguably the better player out of him and Bruno Guimaraes at Lyon, or so I’ve been told and also from looking myself at their comparable match stats/ratings.

He’s had a tough time at West Ham, but he could be a signing we can snap up on the cheap if they go down and he has the ability to play as an 8 and cover Bruno in the 10 position. Hard worker, technically great, tenacious tackler, scores goals, Brazilian flair, what’s not to like?

My preference would still be someone like De Jong or Bennacer, but he’d be a decent shout if those aren’t attainable.

Not sure where you saw that. Bruno Guimaraes was fantastic for Lyon and was topping the stats in both being a progressive passer (99th percentile), very good ball carrier and being a very good ball winner. Literally a simple check for Fbref was all it took to see Bruno Guimaraes was a standout midfielder.

 

[Gandalf]

If Leeds go down we can get Dan James back and right the greatest wrong in our history.

 

[jesperjaap]

Not sure where you saw that. Bruno Guimaraes was fantastic for Lyon and was topping the stats in both being a progressive passer (99th percentile), very good ball carrier and being a very good ball winner. Literally a simple check for Fbref was all it took to see Bruno Guimaraes was a standout midfielder.

Paqueta seems similar everywhere seen him, veryu good technically, but the final ball isnt very consistent at all, not as creative as gets labelled and that is why Milan sold him and Lyon cashed in.

Disagree on Guimaraes....the standout midfielder in that Lyon side has been Caqueret for some time and he would be a good signing for us. Personally would rather a signing like him or Thuram PLUS either a defensive all rounder like Lavia or even an offesnive all rounder like Macallister....than us spending a huge fee on a Bellingham or a Rice for example.

 

[jesperjaap]

If the fees were reasonable and even relegated dont think they would be:

Bella Kotchap, Lavia, Maddison

Great improvement in our squad cover wise and actually genuine competition for Varane, Casemeiro and Fernandes over time, three of our best players, none of which are getting any younger.

However I do think fee wise they wont be reasonable and there would be better value elsewhere in Europe, with the possible exception personally of Bella Kotchap who I think could have a big future ahead of him

 

[bosnian_red]

Paqueta seems similar everywhere seen him, veryu good technically, but the final ball isnt very consistent at all, not as creative as gets labelled and that is why Milan sold him and Lyon cashed in.

Disagree on Guimaraes....the standout midfielder in that Lyon side has been Caqueret for some time and he would be a good signing for us. Personally would rather a signing like him or Thuram PLUS either a defensive all rounder like Lavia or even an offesnive all rounder like Macallister....than us spending a huge fee on a Bellingham or a Rice for example.

When they all played together in 21-22:

Caqueret
Progressive passes - 75th percentile
Progressive carries - 36th percentile
Pass completion - 69th percentile
Tkl+ int - 86th percentile

Guimaraes
Progressive passes - 99th percentile
Progressive carries - 86th percentile
Pass completion - 78th percentile
Tkl+ int - 75th percentile

Paqueta
Progressive passes - 74th percentile
Progressive carries - 24th percentile
Pass completion - 74th percentile
Tkl+ int - 84th percentile

Guimaraes was the standout by far... Was brilliant on the ball, was their creative force and progressive force from deep (best in the league at it), and was very good defensively. Even things like expected assist he was 96th percentile, 99th percentile for passes into final third, 90th percentile for carries into the final third, respectable turnover numbers despite the high amount of carries and creative passes...

That's not to say Caqueret and Paqueta were bad players. Just they were/are decent while the elite talent (backed up by stats at the time and their performances since leaving) is Guimaraes.

Kokcu for me would be a great target, but he is also raw. He's at the high 90s percentile for all the key midfield metrics on the ball like progressive passes and carries and passes into the final third or box or expected assists. Concern would be relatively high amount of turnovers/lowish pass completion. So it's something he'd have to grow out of. Usually if a player can have elite progressive passing and carrying numbers while being respectable with turnovers, it is a sign of an elite talent and one who will adapt with ease IMO.

 

[jesperjaap]

When they all played together in 21-22:

Caqueret
Progressive passes - 75th percentile
Progressive carries - 36th percentile
Pass completion - 69th percentile
Tkl+ int - 86th percentile

Guimaraes
Progressive passes - 99th percentile
Progressive carries - 86th percentile
Pass completion - 78th percentile
Tkl+ int - 75th percentile

Paqueta
Progressive passes - 74th percentile
Progressive carries - 24th percentile
Pass completion - 74th percentile
Tkl+ int - 84th percentile

Guimaraes was the standout by far... Was brilliant on the ball, was their creative force and progressive force from deep (best in the league at it), and was very good defensively. Even things like expected assist he was 96th percentile, 99th percentile for passes into final third, 90th percentile for carries into the final third, respectable turnover numbers despite the high amount of carries and creative passes...

That's not to say Caqueret and Paqueta were bad players. Just they were/are decent while the elite talent (backed up by stats at the time and their performances since leaving) is Guimaraes.

Kokcu for me would be a great target, but he is also raw. He's at the high 90s percentile for all the key midfield metrics on the ball like progressive passes and carries and passes into the final third or box or expected assists. Concern would be relatively high amount of turnovers/lowish pass completion. So it's something he'd have to grow out of. Usually if a player can have elite progressive passing and carrying numbers while being respectable with turnovers, it is a sign of an elite talent and one who will adapt with ease IMO.

Why is any discussion loaded with stats rather than opinions?

I mean opinions and sure others will disagree, but Haalands record is absolutely insane goal scoring wise, does that prove he is a better finisher than Batistuta for example as his record was just over one every two games. Appreciate its a different era and brand of football....but so many other parameters to stats than the stats themselves.

I also hate this bandying about of "elite" player,, maybe my view of the term differs from the mdern term, but to me an elite player is somebody who is just a level above the others in the world, and there are merely a handful of them around, Guimaraes is a good player, not disputing that, so is Caqueret....but neither of them are what I would call elite.

Anyway, they are different players and my personal opinion, I liek Caqueret more and I think he fits the mould of what we need as quite possible a cheaper alternative than a lot of the names I see bandied about, so in that respect, I hope your views are shared by the people dealing with transfers at Lyon

 

[Wing Attack Plan R]

JWP starting for Brazil? Ridiculous.

He doesn't dribble, use his left foot, get on the ball enough and can't tackle. There's a reason England badly needed a #8 to compliment Bellingham and Rice and it hasn't been JWP. He's this generation's Morten Gamst Pedersen. Good Prem starter for a mid-table side where winning 4 or 5 games a year while weakening the team in other regards is still a positive result for a team just looking to get 12 wins and survive, possibly a useful sub for the right big 6 team, barely used squad player for others, but that's it.

Midfield isn't striker. You can't just hit a good ball every 30 minutes and you've done the job.

Totally disagree with you, but that's what 'net opinions are all about. Fred is a fecking dire footballer and usually a liability when he plays. I don't care that he plays for Brazil, and I don't care that JWP doesn't play for England. In terms of upgrading our squad, JWP would be an upgrade over Fred.

 

[Baxquux]

Totally disagree with you, but that's what 'net opinions are all about. Fred is a fecking dire footballer and usually a liability when he plays. I don't care that he plays for Brazil, and I don't care that JWP doesn't play for England. In terms of upgrading our squad, JWP would be an upgrade over Fred.

If football had a designated kicker, maybe (I think he might be slightly better than Fred overall, tbh but I don't think he suits our overall needs particularly well compared to other midfielder profiles) ...

Otherwise looking at how badly we tend to play when Casemiro is out or off-form, then Lavia definitely seems like the standout of the Southampton two for overall play. He could even be converted to play as more of an overt box to box player...

 

[bosnian_red]

Why is any discussion loaded with stats rather than opinions?

I mean opinions and sure others will disagree, but Haalands record is absolutely insane goal scoring wise, does that prove he is a better finisher than Batistuta for example as his record was just over one every two games. Appreciate its a different era and brand of football....but so many other parameters to stats than the stats themselves.

I also hate this bandying about of "elite" player,, maybe my view of the term differs from the mdern term, but to me an elite player is somebody who is just a level above the others in the world, and there are merely a handful of them around, Guimaraes is a good player, not disputing that, so is Caqueret....but neither of them are what I would call elite.

Anyway, they are different players and my personal opinion, I liek Caqueret more and I think he fits the mould of what we need as quite possible a cheaper alternative than a lot of the names I see bandied about, so in that respect, I hope your views are shared by the people dealing with transfers at Lyon

It's pointless as Guimaraes isn't realistic, but comparing players who played together for the same team with stats is a pretty fair way to do it... If Guimaraes was literally the best deep playmaker in Ligue 1 statistically at every relevant stat, and then came to the prem and shower he is class on the ball and off the ball, then I'd say its clear he was ahead of caqueret and Paqueta. Caqueret is a decent player, but we need someone who can be an elite playmaker next to Casemiro... That means he would show on the stats like progressive carries and passes in lesser leagues that they excel in those. Thats what we need here, so i think it's fair to use it as a metric for our signings. So if in Ligue 1 he isn't an excellent playmaker, I'd say there's nothing to suggest he would excel as one here.

Take Kokcu for example- he's elite at all the things that matter for being a playmaker. Nobody knows if he could adapt, but he is showing a level that is the best in the Eredivisie in all the traits that matter and at a young age. No point in signing a player and asking them to do something they've never done in a weaker league, now in a stronger league.

 

[Wing Attack Plan R]

If football had a designated kicker, maybe (I think he might be slightly better than Fred overall, tbh but I don't think he suits our overall needs particularly well compared to other midfielder profiles) ...

Otherwise looking at how badly we tend to play when Casemiro is out or off-form, then Lavia definitely seems like the standout of the Southampton two for overall play. He could even be converted to play as more of an overt box to box player...

Lavia would be great here.

 

[Lost bear]

Onana, what's his name, Onana.

Chant all together in a cockney accent:
‘Ave an Onana…

 

[KikiDaKats]

@SilentWitness If Dominic Calvert-Lewin wasn’t injury prone would he be considered good enough for a club competing for Europe?

 

[Maluco]

@SilentWitness If Dominic Calvert-Lewin wasn’t injury prone would he be considered good enough for a club competing for Europe?

This version isn’t even good enough for Everton. He looks a shadow of what he was, even when he is fit.

 

[KikiDaKats]

This version isn’t even good enough for Everton. He looks a shadow of what he was, even when he is fit.

I’ve not really watched him much this season. Every time I’ve watched them play he is out injured.

 

[Maluco]

I’ve not really watched him much this season. Every time I’ve watched them play he is out injured.

It may be linked to him not having confidence in his own body, but he has no real fight or desire in him. He used to battle and was actually quite physical, but he is very easy to defend against at the moment. He looks a bit lost.

 

[Blood Mage]

We shouldn't be looking at anyone from Everton. Onana is one of the most overrated players in the PL. Lavia and Maddison are the ones to snap up, maybe Walker-Peters too if we can't get Frimpong for some reason.

 

[KikiDaKats]

It may be linked to him not having confidence in his own body, but he has no real fight or desire in him. He used to battle and was actually quite physical, but he is very easy to defend against at the moment. He looks a bit lost.

I doubt he will ever get back to his rhythm when he was breaking through. At the time it was only his composure he had to work on but now it looks like he will also need to go to a boot camp.

 

[amolbhatia50k]

Lavia is the standout. His age, quick feet, strength etc make him an easy for us really. All the others mentioned I don’t feel as certain about. He looks a real talent and at the very least would add qualities we simply don’t have in this team.

Would be disappointed if we didn’t go all our for him but with our owners / executives I see Liverpool etc beating us to it as we leave everything late and will probably end up chasing some 29/30 year olds late into the window.

 

[lex talionis]

JWP is a one trick pony. It’s an incredible trick, but it’s only one trick.

Fred isn’t poor, but he is inconsistent. When he’s on he’s borderline insane, but when he’s off he is insane.

 

[Red Indian Chief Torn Rubber]

Surprised no one would like Eze

I'd happily take him. But Palace are likely to be very safe, so I don't feel he counts....

 

[Red Indian Chief Torn Rubber]

I'd Pick up Lavia, Tielmanns and Maddison.

 

[ROFLUTION]

I think another really important thing to remember is that the attributes that make a player stand out in a relegation fight won't necessarily always translate well to a club aiming for regular Champions League qualification and an eventual title charge.

Georginio Wijnaldum is quite a good example to demonstrate my point. He wasn't awful at Newcastle but he wasn't really a fan favourite either because he wasn't the sort of all-action player that tends to be more valuable to a side without the quality to control matches. With that said, Liverpool identified his potential value to a side that did have this quality and his transfer was a resounding success.

This is sort of why Tielemans is still probably the most attractive option for me from the relegation threatened clubs. He wouldn't necessarily be my first choice of midfield options in the transfer market, but I do look at him and think he wouldn't look entirely out of place in the side we're ultimately looking to become.

Very good point. Gray from Everton seems to fit this bill too imo - technical, good decisionmaking, can finish. But wrong setup at Everton.

 

[johnnyteutonic]

It's pointless as Guimaraes isn't realistic, but comparing players who played together for the same team with stats is a pretty fair way to do it... If Guimaraes was literally the best deep playmaker in Ligue 1 statistically at every relevant stat, and then came to the prem and shower he is class on the ball and off the ball, then I'd say its clear he was ahead of caqueret and Paqueta. Caqueret is a decent player, but we need someone who can be an elite playmaker next to Casemiro... That means he would show on the stats like progressive carries and passes in lesser leagues that they excel in those. Thats what we need here, so i think it's fair to use it as a metric for our signings. So if in Ligue 1 he isn't an excellent playmaker, I'd say there's nothing to suggest he would excel as one here.

Take Kokcu for example- he's elite at all the things that matter for being a playmaker. Nobody knows if he could adapt, but he is showing a level that is the best in the Eredivisie in all the traits that matter and at a young age. No point in signing a player and asking them to do something they've never done in a weaker league, now in a stronger league.

Fully agreed. Fbref is my go-to when I don't have the time/access to watch other leagues, and I remember seeing just how damn good Guimaraes' stats were for Lyon.
He's been outstanding since he moved to Newcastle and a huge reason as to why they are where they are on the table. Also when he was suspended for a red card not long ago, Newcastle struggled a lot in his absence.

I've only stumbled upon this thread now but the same names bandied about like Bennacer, Caqueret and Enzo Le Fee are names I've also identified merely by taking advantage of Fbref.
I can recall we were linked to Bennacer last summer although I'm not sure how reputable the source was that I read at the time...

I also came to the same conclusion that the elite playmakers maintain good progressive-passing and ball-carrying stats whilst maintaining good ball retention stats. We can see this with FDJ for example.

Kokcu I have looked up before and yes for sure there will be question marks over how he could adapt to this league at such a young age.
Actually, a few Eredivisie fans have actually said they don't think he's ready to make the step up to the premier league.

I know this is a 'relegation fire sale' thread but I would be interested in looking at Kovacic actually. Great player who ticks all the boxes for ball-progression, ball-retention and ball-carrying.
I'm not sure if he's been mentioned before but I have read he's also unhappy at Chelsea. Only issue would be that Tuchel looks interested in bringing him to Bayern.

 

[Mmm-Qatarian]

Very good point. Gray from Everton seems to fit this bill too imo - technical, good decisionmaking, can finish. But wrong setup at Everton.

Gray is an interesting call! I certainly agree that there's probably potential for him to be doing more in a team that's not Everton. I probably wouldn't be moving for him if for no other reason than that we don't need players out wide, but I certainly agree that he's likely to be one that some top flight teams will be keeping an eye on should Everton go down.

Pickford would probably be my pick from Everton. At this point I actually think he's bizarrely quite an underrated goalkeeper, and he has a skillset that I think would translate quite nicely to a bigger team. He's a pretty good sweeper and generally fairly comfortable on the ball too.

There are a few things about him that would make me more hesitant, though. The first is that he's not got outstanding numbers when it comes to stopping crosses, and the second is that he launches a lot of his kicks. In the case of the second, it'd be important for us to ascertain whether this is due to tactical reasons or simply because he's not comfortable playing through a press; with Everton, it's quite possibly the former and this wouldn't then be such an issue.

 

[daba]

If we were wanting to sign two midfielders this year I wouldn’t be against either:

Lavia + Kokcu
or
Caicedo + Tielemans

Both probably totalling £80m.

 

[Infra-red]

If we were wanting to sign two midfielders this year I wouldn’t be against either:

Lavia + Kokcu
or
Caicedo + Tielemans

Both probably totalling £80m.

Caicedo would surely cost more than £80m now.

 

[Baxquux]

Could Maddison be converted to a 8 a la Modric ( although without quite the same level, of course) or Eriksen? He's played slightly deeper before for parts of games as well as picking the ball up in his own half to start attacks for Leicester when I've seen him play, so could he be one of our (hopefully 2) midfield signings. This also still gives an option for Bruno fill-in, presuming DVB is (correctly)-sold-off, when needed.

Amad will hopefully also come in and challenge for a spot there as well as RFW off the bench, but Maddison could be good all round option to fill at least two positions, along with LFW in crisis.

 

[Rolaholic]

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[Lash]

Could Maddison be converted to a 8 a la Modric ( although without quite the same level, of course) or Eriksen? He's played slightly deeper before for parts of games as well as picking the ball up in his own half to start attacks for Leicester when I've seen him play, so could he be one of our (hopefully 2) midfield signings. This also still gives an option for Bruno fill-in, presuming DVB is (correctly)-sold-off, when needed.

Amad will hopefully also come in and challenge for a spot there as well as RFW off the bench, but Maddison could be good all round option to fill at least two positions, along with LFW in crisis.

I'm pretty sure maddison is nailed on for Newcastle, they tried in Jan if you believe the rumours. I think he would be very good in the Eriksen role for us though, if we were interested.

 

[Hernandez - BFA]

How has Ndidi been recently? I remember when he was hyped to death. Barely hear his name now.

 

[MadDogg]

The thing with Ndidi is that his partnership with Tielemans was extremely specialised, more so than any other midfield in the league. Ndidi basically did all the defensive work, Tielemans did all the passing and creating. There was very little overlap (in comparison to normal midfields). Ndidi's defensive work was absolutely elite but he really didn't provide any creativity or particular ability on the ball, which is why some people thought he'd be the right player to partner Pogba but which personally I'm not a fan of. While your midfielders will always have different strengths I do prefer them to be fairly solid at most aspects and working together, rather than being extremely specialised individuals.

In saying that, I always remember one match against Liverpool where Ndidi was super impressive even on the ball. While the rest of the team around him was falling apart he was basically a one man army and did his best to drag Everton to the win. From memory they lost but that match made me think that he might have more to his game than what he normally shows.

I really haven't watched Everton the last two years but from what others have said he's gone backwards instead of taking that step up.

 

[croadyman]

Fully agreed. Fbref is my go-to when I don't have the time/access to watch other leagues, and I remember seeing just how damn good Guimaraes' stats were for Lyon.
He's been outstanding since he moved to Newcastle and a huge reason as to why they are where they are on the table. Also when he was suspended for a red card not long ago, Newcastle struggled a lot in his absence.

I've only stumbled upon this thread now but the same names bandied about like Bennacer, Caqueret and Enzo Le Fee are names I've also identified merely by taking advantage of Fbref.
I can recall we were linked to Bennacer last summer although I'm not sure how reputable the source was that I read at the time...

I also came to the same conclusion that the elite playmakers maintain good progressive-passing and ball-carrying stats whilst maintaining good ball retention stats. We can see this with FDJ for example.

Kokcu I have looked up before and yes for sure there will be question marks over how he could adapt to this league at such a young age.
Actually, a few Eredivisie fans have actually said they don't think he's ready to make the step up to the premier league.

I know this is a 'relegation fire sale' thread but I would be interested in looking at Kovacic actually. Great player who ticks all the boxes for ball-progression, ball-retention and ball-carrying.
I'm not sure if he's been mentioned before but I have read he's also unhappy at Chelsea. Only issue would be that Tuchel looks interested in bringing him to Bayern.

Yeah didn't City also meet his reps recently

 

[croadyman]

I'm pretty sure maddison is nailed on for Newcastle, they tried in Jan if you believe the rumours. I think he would be very good in the Eriksen role for us though, if we were interested.

Yeah he will finally join them in summer,also have we seen any evidence at Leicester he is capable of playing in Eriksen type role

 

[Lash]

Yeah he will finally join them in summer,also have we seen any evidence at Leicester he is capable of playing in Eriksen type role

I think we have, but Leicester this season is just a shit show, so hard to gauge much from those performances.

 

[johnnyteutonic]

Yeah didn't City also meet his reps recently

Kovacic? If so, I think this is going to be a losing battle.

 

[croadyman]

Kovacic? If so, I think this is going to be a losing battle.

Yeah that's my gut feeling as well

 

[croadyman]

I think we have, but Leicester this season is just a shit show, so hard to gauge much from those performances.

Yeah that is very true

 

[Nicoseth]

Maddison is quality - would be an excellent addition. Honestly I have a feeling we'll sign Sabitzer and Maddison will go to Newcastle.

 

[glasgow 21]

I would just love that our transfer guys actually meet someone agents before the window opens similar to most other top teams but we can only sit back and watch other clubs go bang bang bang. I haven't seen anything to suggest this summer will be any different. Especially with the sale fiasco.