It could be one of the most interesting races for C.L-spots ever. The only thing that is absolutely certain is that City will pick up one of the spots, but still there are 8 teams with a more than decent chance of reaching top-4. I draw the line after Aston Villa as I see Arsenal as having no realistic chance unless they win like 10 of their last 11 games, and that wont happen.
My guess is that about 70 points will probably be enough for C.L - if you reach 72 you are almost guaranteed.
So team for team:
Man United - 54 points in 28 matches. The advantage for United is that they only have 3 of the best teams left to play - the negative thing is that they don't have a lot of the (on paper) easiest teams to play. 5 wins from the last 10 and a draw or two should more or less guarantee top-4. Have very few games left where United aren't clear favourites to win, and should be able to win 5 of their last 10. Add to that the extra points on the table should be enough to give C.L
Leicester - 53 points in 28 matches. In a good position, but few teams will need it more than Leicester as they have a really tough fixture list left. Going out of the Europa league could have been a huge blessing for them as they will need their players fit. Have 3 on paper fairly easy games which they will all need to win - because they also play United (a), City (h), West Ham (a), Chelsea (a) and Spurs (h). Chances are that the final 2 games against Chelsea and then Spurs will be a C.L-decider.
Chelsea - 47 points in 27 matches. An incredible important game tomorrow against Everton, where a defeat will gave the Liverpool-club a clear advantage over Chelsea. Look much improved under Tuchel, but have a horribly tough fixture list where they have West Ham (h), City (a), Arsenal (h), and Leicester (h) in 4 of their last 6 games. Need 7 wins from their last 11 to have a good chance of qualifying, and will improve their chances a lot with a win against Everton tomorrow.
Everton - 46 points in 26 matches. Very good at winning tight matches and only have +6 GD. Like Chelsea and Leicester also have a tough ending fixture list. Need to get something from the match against Chelsea tomorrow as they finish with Spurs (h), Arsenal (a), West Ham (a) and City (a) in 4 of the last 7 games. The good news for Everton is that they have 4-5 games on paper that looks likely to win - but need to grind out results in 2-3 of the other fixtures to have a chance. I rank their chances as good if they win again Chelsea tomorrow, poor if they lose.
West Ham - 45 points in 26 matches. The biggest upset by far. They shouldn't have a chance because in terms of quality and the size of their squad, they are not in the same league as the other, but Moyes has worked miracles. They need 23-24 points from 12 matches to have a chance, but they have a tough fixture list - Leeds (h), Arsenal (a), United (a), Wolves (h), Leicester (h), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (a), Burnley (a), Everton (h). Will probably need to win 7 of their last 12 games to have a good chance of reaching C.L - and I just can't see it. Probably need 5 points in their first 3 games again Leeds, Arsenal and United to still have a good chance
Liverpool - 43 points in 28 matches. If this had been another team I would have counted them out as they now realistically need to win 8 of their last 10 games. On paper the easiest fixture-list with United (a) and Arsenal (a) the only 2 really tough games left - but in their current form all matches are difficult. Unless they pick up 6 points against Arsenal and Wolves in their next 2 games - I will consider them practically out of the running. I just can't see Liverpool win their last 8 games, which will be a requirement if they drop points in their next 2 games.
Aston Villa - 43 points in 26 matches. The form says no - but if they pick up 4 points from their 2 games in hand, they are in a very good position. But have an awful fixture list where they play Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea, Everton, United and City. I just can't see them winning 8 of their last 12 matches, but if they pick up 2 wins from the next 3 games they still have a small chance.
My prediction - City, United, Leicester and the winner of tomorrows game between Chelsea - Everton to grab top-4. If that game ends with a draw I favour Chelsea
My guess is that about 70 points will probably be enough for C.L - if you reach 72 you are almost guaranteed.
So team for team:
Man United - 54 points in 28 matches. The advantage for United is that they only have 3 of the best teams left to play - the negative thing is that they don't have a lot of the (on paper) easiest teams to play. 5 wins from the last 10 and a draw or two should more or less guarantee top-4. Have very few games left where United aren't clear favourites to win, and should be able to win 5 of their last 10. Add to that the extra points on the table should be enough to give C.L
Leicester - 53 points in 28 matches. In a good position, but few teams will need it more than Leicester as they have a really tough fixture list left. Going out of the Europa league could have been a huge blessing for them as they will need their players fit. Have 3 on paper fairly easy games which they will all need to win - because they also play United (a), City (h), West Ham (a), Chelsea (a) and Spurs (h). Chances are that the final 2 games against Chelsea and then Spurs will be a C.L-decider.
Chelsea - 47 points in 27 matches. An incredible important game tomorrow against Everton, where a defeat will gave the Liverpool-club a clear advantage over Chelsea. Look much improved under Tuchel, but have a horribly tough fixture list where they have West Ham (h), City (a), Arsenal (h), and Leicester (h) in 4 of their last 6 games. Need 7 wins from their last 11 to have a good chance of qualifying, and will improve their chances a lot with a win against Everton tomorrow.
Everton - 46 points in 26 matches. Very good at winning tight matches and only have +6 GD. Like Chelsea and Leicester also have a tough ending fixture list. Need to get something from the match against Chelsea tomorrow as they finish with Spurs (h), Arsenal (a), West Ham (a) and City (a) in 4 of the last 7 games. The good news for Everton is that they have 4-5 games on paper that looks likely to win - but need to grind out results in 2-3 of the other fixtures to have a chance. I rank their chances as good if they win again Chelsea tomorrow, poor if they lose.
West Ham - 45 points in 26 matches. The biggest upset by far. They shouldn't have a chance because in terms of quality and the size of their squad, they are not in the same league as the other, but Moyes has worked miracles. They need 23-24 points from 12 matches to have a chance, but they have a tough fixture list - Leeds (h), Arsenal (a), United (a), Wolves (h), Leicester (h), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (a), Burnley (a), Everton (h). Will probably need to win 7 of their last 12 games to have a good chance of reaching C.L - and I just can't see it. Probably need 5 points in their first 3 games again Leeds, Arsenal and United to still have a good chance
Liverpool - 43 points in 28 matches. If this had been another team I would have counted them out as they now realistically need to win 8 of their last 10 games. On paper the easiest fixture-list with United (a) and Arsenal (a) the only 2 really tough games left - but in their current form all matches are difficult. Unless they pick up 6 points against Arsenal and Wolves in their next 2 games - I will consider them practically out of the running. I just can't see Liverpool win their last 8 games, which will be a requirement if they drop points in their next 2 games.
Aston Villa - 43 points in 26 matches. The form says no - but if they pick up 4 points from their 2 games in hand, they are in a very good position. But have an awful fixture list where they play Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea, Everton, United and City. I just can't see them winning 8 of their last 12 matches, but if they pick up 2 wins from the next 3 games they still have a small chance.
My prediction - City, United, Leicester and the winner of tomorrows game between Chelsea - Everton to grab top-4. If that game ends with a draw I favour Chelsea
Sorry my mistake - can somebody move it ?