Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
First off... You gotta love the overblown military/diplomatic graphics. They produce some doozies.The Belarus-Russia Conflict Through The Lens Of The Gerasimov Doctrine
With Ukraine largely taken care of and the Baltics off the table (for the time being), Putin is in search for other low hanging fruit. And what better place for that than Belarus.
http://belarusdigest.com/story/belarus-russia-conflict-through-lens-gerasimov-doctrine-29252
Imo, he's right.. It's the new proxy war.
Indeed, and it just goes to show that Russia's foreign policy is more or less a modern strain of old school Soviet style cross border subversion where you would see communist student groups at Universities in various European countries followed by internal agitations that challenged the existing political order in said country. In the modern iteration, Putin is using troll farms, TV propaganda (RT etc), the funding/support of right wing Eurosceptic politicians and political parties (UK, France, Bulgaria, Moldova, Montenegro etc), and active collusion with non state actors like Wikileaks to influence the elections in the U.S.
That's because democracy in Hong Kong is degrading, while it's same old same old in Belarus.
Don't you think Putin would intervene in some way if it looked like Lukashenko might fall and the country suddenly liberalize ? Seems like he wouldn't tolerate a new Democracy on his front door.
Not really. In Chechnya they really have those close to 100% numbers – the issue is, there's a clear hierarchy in the society and Kadyrov's word is basically the law. And, of course, if you dare to disobey him, you and your relatives would be prosecuted, tortured or killed. In Belarus' the election fraud happens at the election itself.
I can't seem to remember anything close to this happening in European countries recently. You have, say, Russia, where the government uses TV, radio, spends tons of money on internet trolls etc. But, sadly, it still has an actual electorate – and while it continues to diminish, it's still, probably, about half of the voters (it's hard to say without any option of objective assessment). So you'll have, say, 50% of approval mysteriously transforming into 65%...
Considering what he did with Ukraine, anything is possible. It's weird that he hadn't been able to gain more influence and control the situation better, he is, sadly, quite good at it. Lukashenko's recent distrust towards Putin and Russia didn't help as well – it looks like he had tried to play the Russian aggression card in a desperate attempt to get some of the reactive voters back, but failed to do so.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
I'm sure Vlad has given him his instructions.
My thoughts are with the protesters over there. Stay safe mate.
I’m Lithuanian mate! It’s just that I live not too far of the border with Belarus and get to interact with their people a lot (which are coming here for work in masses due to poor economic conditions in their country). It’s incredible that Lukashenko thinks he can handle such a sustained pressure from the overwhelming majority unless he goes full North Korea or something.
99% of my friends know anything about Belarus politics if you would tell them that they are US/EU friendly and a full on democracy they would believe it
I’d consider myself relatively well-informed about many places, but don’t know anything about Belarus. I’d imagine the same goes for a lot of people on here.
Exactly. Thats why the current events is a great spot to enter and learn from the ones that they know more than oneself. So please, add any useful information to be informed
Corruption and violence is a very powerful grip and people will not risk their life (because it comes down to that) as long as they have fear to lose something else first. As long people have sustain for them and their loved ones, is very difficult to risk everything against a long term network of corruption and state control that had been threaded little by little tighten it more and more and that might not work even if you risk your life (like many other regimes)
He’s been in charge for 26 years and it’s not a surprise at all. In 3 years time he’ll equal Stalins dictatorship of USSR. Have a feeling Putin will too though.
I understand that. What I don't understand is, how do these dictators not get overthrown by other power hungry folks every couple of years. To have that tight grip for multiple decades is what baffles me.
Well, He doesn't sustain himself alone, he shares part of his power. Regional power, sector power, wealth, etc...and risk that for just a bit of more power and instability to be next it might not worth it. Risk/benefit analysis I guess?
It's a bit more complicated than that I think. A little while ago, Lukashenko's Belarus was very close to Russia, and there was some talk of Belarus maybe eventually becoming a Russian province. That has completely reversed though: Lukashenko is now rather mistrusting of Putin and Russia. He's not quite steering Belarus towards Europe, but trying harder to steer a middle course. In the meantime, he has started fostering a unique Belarussian national identity, by emphasizing differences and promoting the national language. (Belarussian is not Russian, but was long suppressed.)
