The U.S. and Israel attack Iran | Peace deal finally on?

Not sure I’d go quite that far, I’m willing to give any place a chance. But yeah, as someone who looks back nostalgically at an Arab world that maybe never was, I do kind of regret the apparent shift in the hub of Arab cultural and economic life from Cairo, Damascus, Beirut and Baghdad to Riyadh, Dubai and Doha. With all due respect to the people of those cities of course.

The nostalgia is understandable given they are older cities, and their glory days were back when not everything around the world looked exactly the same (before the internet).

Maybe less to do with “foreign culture” though, in terms of lifestyle Beirut is about as Western as it gets in the Arab world.
 
I mean, we expect nothing less, but seriously.... The Middle East is in turmoil and this fecking clown is conducting it all, or at least being updated about it from his fecking Miami based golf resort.



Those black curtains in his ballroom must be tip top state of the art at protecting National Security.

Mind you, this was last night. He sure has his priorities in order.


I actually thought that guy in the first tweet was in a cutoff when presenting there :lol:
 
All he will say is that Obama did the Correspondents Dinner hours before the Bin Laden raid.

Good memory. That's not quite the same though as Obama then went straight to the White House and watched it all unfold live from the Situation Room.

Firstly, it was a one time in and out extraction/elimination mission and not the start of a war or prolonged campaign. Secondly, he was where he should have been, not behind a curtain in a golf resort where we all know security is piss poor at best. How do we know his top donors and friends weren't watching too? Or being updated?

The big problems and questions are why isn't he at The White House where it's secure? And is this how seriously he takes it all? Especially the national security side of things.
 
My wife’s family very afraid as the missus aunts in a Tehran hospital right now and other family staying inside.
Hopefully it’s ok but she is a kind lady who I know well and hopefully this helps people understand that as usual it’s the general population that will suffer for this.
 
The nostalgia is understandable given they are older cities, and their glory days were back when not everything around the world looked exactly the same (before the internet).

Maybe less to do with “foreign culture” though, in terms of lifestyle Beirut is about as Western as it gets in the Arab world.
I didn't say Dubai was about foreign culture or even Western culture, i said it was a bastardisation of western consumerism, the closest thing to it in the west would be a cross between Las Vegas, Zurich, Atlanta airport and a large shopping mall.
As to Beirut, they have a vast history to backup their culture and city aesthetics.
 
Iran and UAE have had problems for a long time and absolutely hate each other. There are Iranian islands UAE claim and UAE islands that Iran claim. In fact, after the US and Israel I'd say UAE are Irans biggest enemy (Things with Saudi having calmed down recently).

Its a bit surreal seeing the palm and burj al Arab on fire, having lived there for nearly 10 years and still have friends/family there. I've spoken to a few of them and they've been told to stay indoors and to not record anything, apparently recording damage to infrastructure can land you a 10 year prison sentence.
Also add to the fact that UAE has now very close ties with Israel. Amongst all the countries in Middle East, UAE is not closest to Israel.
 
I didn't say Dubai was about foreign culture or even Western culture, i said it was a bastardisation of western consumerism, the closest thing to it in the west would be a cross between Las Vegas, Zurich, Atlanta airport and a large shopping mall.
As to Beirut, they have a vast history to backup their culture and city aesthetics.

Ok, so the discussion is about city aesthetics and not culture. Looks like we agree.
 
Death of Khamenai daughter , son in law and grand child confirmed.

 
Iran has confirmed Khamenei's daughter, son in law and grandchild were killed.
Khamenei’s death will be confirmed soon. If he was alive the’d have shown it already for propaganda purposes.
 
One down then. Now if only the iranians could bomb the shit out of bibi and send him to hell...
 
Even if we (hopefully) end up getting rid of the Iranian regime, Trump has already lost.



“ The final number of dead at the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ school in Minab, southern Iran, is 108 school girls, a spokesperson for the Iranian Red Crescent Society said — more than half of the roughly 170 students who attend the school.It remains unclear whether the strike was carried out by the U.S. or Israel. A CENTCOM spokesperson said they were “looking into” the reports.Drop Site reported from the site of the massacre, speaking with families who lost their daughters. The school was reduced to rubble, and dozens of girls were trapped beneath collapsed concrete, with residents digging with their bare hands. Parents wandered through the debris in shock, calling out their children’s names. The full report is below.”
 
So a peace deal was on cards with Iran agreeing to zero stockpiling of enriched uranium. And yet here we are...

This is a very good read.

 
These "negotiations" are all for show anyway. The us would keep demanding stuff until it was impossible for the iranians to accept.
 
Khamenei’s death will be confirmed soon. If he was alive the’d have shown it already for propaganda purposes.
They wouldn't, the moment he pops up in public he'd be getting hit. He'll be in hiding if alive.
 
Blocking Strait of Hormuz hurts China, India and Europe the most. US can always turn up their production. I feel like Venezuela and Iran are both US's pokes against China. China will retaliate in some way? Choke Taiwan and semis?
 
Khamenei confirmed dead
Iran state media confirm the death of Khamenei

 
Iran state media has confirmed Khamenai death.

 
So a peace deal was on cards with Iran agreeing to zero stockpiling of enriched uranium. And yet here we are...

This is a very good read.


I believe this is a piece of fiction, though based on reports of a peace deal, which he links to in a reply. I did like the writing, though.
 
If Khamenei is gone, this is pretty much over, isnt it?

Sadam says hi
Blocking Strait of Hormuz hurts China, India and Europe the most. US can always turn up their production. I feel like Venezuela and Iran are both US's pokes against China. China will retaliate in some way? Choke Taiwan and semis?
Nah. No one is helping Iran.

If China is in trouble it meant the world is too in trouble. Half the world's goods is made in china. Price will increase and economy will tank

Nobody is going to war over Iran, it's a lost cause by now militarily
 
How accurate is this?

I have seen and understand the security layers and next in line protection etc, it's the future being harder part I'm not knowledgeable of. I guessed things wouldn't become rosy in the garden overnight, but this is saying things could be exponentially worse under a new leader.



Khamenei is dead. Good.But I have family in Iran. My dad is there right now. And I'm not celebrating yet. Here's why.Iran built the most layered contingency plan on Earth for this exact moment.

Four levels of succession for every key position. Pre-authorized military strikes. Regional commanders who don't need orders from Tehran to act.As you read this, there is already a new Supreme Leader. We just don't know who.

This isn't Maduro. The government didn't get overthrown. The system absorbed the hit. That's what it was designed to do.Every credible intel assessment says the same thing: a post-Khamenei Iran is more likely to get harder, not softer.

More IRGC. More dangerous. Potentially worse for the Iranian people than Khamenei himself.

Don't breathe yet. There's a long way to go.
 
So a peace deal was on cards with Iran agreeing to zero stockpiling of enriched uranium. And yet here we are...

This is a very good read.


I believe this is a piece of fiction, though based on reports of a peace deal, which he links to in a reply. I did like the writing, though.
As it is, this is definitely not directly credible. This gothburz account also posted this series of tweets, on rolling out MS CoPilot at a company: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1999124665801880032.html. It's the exact same writing style on an entirely unrepeated topic. And this Peter Girnus seems to be a cybersecurity dude from Texas - who wouldn't be the person involved in either the negotiations or CoPilot story. Seems to me like they might both be AI creations.

There might be all kinds of truth behind this story, but we'd need other evidence to know what's what. By itself, this can't be trusted.
 
Even if we (hopefully) end up getting rid of the Iranian regime, Trump has already lost.



“ The final number of dead at the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ school in Minab, southern Iran, is 108 school girls, a spokesperson for the Iranian Red Crescent Society said — more than half of the roughly 170 students who attend the school.It remains unclear whether the strike was carried out by the U.S. or Israel. A CENTCOM spokesperson said they were “looking into” the reports.Drop Site reported from the site of the massacre, speaking with families who lost their daughters. The school was reduced to rubble, and dozens of girls were trapped beneath collapsed concrete, with residents digging with their bare hands. Parents wandered through the debris in shock, calling out their children’s names. The full report is below.”

Don’t think our record with being shook by kids dying in school is gonna support that statement. 108 white, blond, and blue eyed Christian children could be gunned down at an Iowa school on Monday and it wouldn’t matter.
 
How accurate is this?

I have seen and understand the security layers and next in line protection etc, it's the future being harder part I'm not knowledgeable of. I guessed things wouldn't become rosy in the garden overnight, but this is saying things could be exponentially worse under a new leader.



Khamenei is dead. Good.But I have family in Iran. My dad is there right now. And I'm not celebrating yet. Here's why.Iran built the most layered contingency plan on Earth for this exact moment.

Four levels of succession for every key position. Pre-authorized military strikes. Regional commanders who don't need orders from Tehran to act.As you read this, there is already a new Supreme Leader. We just don't know who.

This isn't Maduro. The government didn't get overthrown. The system absorbed the hit. That's what it was designed to do.Every credible intel assessment says the same thing: a post-Khamenei Iran is more likely to get harder, not softer.

More IRGC. More dangerous. Potentially worse for the Iranian people than Khamenei himself.

Don't breathe yet. There's a long way to go.

Is he asking the West and Israel to go harder? And not stop it in a week or so? Doubt that will be good for the family in Iran he is so concerned about.
 
Woke up to this depressing news earlier. Not unexpected but it still hits hard when it happens. Us lot in the UK are going to get dragged into another one of the US's wars.
 
How accurate is this?

I have seen and understand the security layers and next in line protection etc, it's the future being harder part I'm not knowledgeable of. I guessed things wouldn't become rosy in the garden overnight, but this is saying things could be exponentially worse under a new leader.



Khamenei is dead. Good.But I have family in Iran. My dad is there right now. And I'm not celebrating yet. Here's why.Iran built the most layered contingency plan on Earth for this exact moment.

Four levels of succession for every key position. Pre-authorized military strikes. Regional commanders who don't need orders from Tehran to act.As you read this, there is already a new Supreme Leader. We just don't know who.

This isn't Maduro. The government didn't get overthrown. The system absorbed the hit. That's what it was designed to do.Every credible intel assessment says the same thing: a post-Khamenei Iran is more likely to get harder, not softer.

More IRGC. More dangerous. Potentially worse for the Iranian people than Khamenei himself.

Don't breathe yet. There's a long way to go.


There may be contingencies, but I'm not sure things will go to plan. It's possible some of the successors were killed. It's possible some IRGC commanders will try to seize power or subvert the succession plan of Khameinei/the Guardian Council. We could end up with some Death of Stalin shenanigans between various factions.

With continual bombing by Israel and the US, the chance of a sudden, popular uprising seems vanishingly small.
 
My wife’s family very afraid as the missus aunts in a Tehran hospital right now and other family staying inside.
Hopefully it’s ok but she is a kind lady who I know well and hopefully this helps people understand that as usual it’s the general population that will suffer for this.
My heart goes out to you, your family, and your friends. I hope they all come through this.
 
This thread is just all over the place.
 
Even if we (hopefully) end up getting rid of the Iranian regime, Trump has already lost.



“ The final number of dead at the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ school in Minab, southern Iran, is 108 school girls, a spokesperson for the Iranian Red Crescent Society said — more than half of the roughly 170 students who attend the school.It remains unclear whether the strike was carried out by the U.S. or Israel. A CENTCOM spokesperson said they were “looking into” the reports.Drop Site reported from the site of the massacre, speaking with families who lost their daughters. The school was reduced to rubble, and dozens of girls were trapped beneath collapsed concrete, with residents digging with their bare hands. Parents wandered through the debris in shock, calling out their children’s names. The full report is below.”

They’ll probably claim they’re all terrorists.